Frame Dragger
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ideasrule said:A "warning sign" that's only useful in hindsight is NOT a warning sign. You can't do an experiment, explain it with a hypothesis, and say that the experiment supports the hypothesis; you have to actually predict something. If a hypothesis (or a "warning sign") cannot be used for predictions, it's garbage.
That said, there are legitimate warning signs for spree killings. Poverty, childhood abuse, a history of crime, drug abuse, and even race are all statistically correlated with a person's risk of going on a spree killing. These indicators are sensitive but very non-selective, so they can't possibly be used to predict whether a specific person will commit murder to any degree of certainty.
Completely agreed.
I was of course only talking about the MASK, not the actual person. The MASK is what Bishop's students saw.
Again, warnings are not even worth considering unless they can be used to make predictions.
Oh... as for the childhood factors, I don't count them. Poverty and abuse etc... tend to be in the past of a LOT of people, sane and otherwise. We're nowhere near understanding how genes and the environment interact to produce those rarest events (or freaks in the case of someone like Dahmer, and oddly enough, Bishop).
Of course, your point and any point against predictive modeling is made by the simple fact that no model would have a woman as a likely spree killer. Add a gun, and the odds go down even further.
Then again, the fact that predictions cannot be made NOW, doesn't mean that warning signs don't exist. The reality is that they tend to be proximal to the event, and people tend to write them off. Of course, given the rarity of these events, the rarity of them being prevented by a wary bystander is even lower. People DO predict and stop these events, but 1.) that doesn't make for great news and 2.) you can't PROVE that they would have 'done it' except in the most extreme cases of a failed attempt. Often a single case of attempted murder is the result.
Finally, in some situations these are VERY predictive factors. Fly El Al and you'll be made safe in part by the use of extensive profiling of your behaviour which has proven useful in protecting an extremely high value target. Of course, as with the man-trap scenario above, you can't screen the whole world, and what's the point? You're still FAR more likely to die at the hands of friend or family, and die in a traffic accident near your home. Such is life. That doesn't invalidate the point, anymore than predicting black ice prevents all accidents on the road.
Now, if the behaviours are not catalogued they cannot be studied, and progress towards what you consider a meaningful warning cannot be made, then no science or art can progress. Obviously we're not 'there' yet, but that's not going to happen without study in the interim.
Edit: I should add... Ms. Bishop's students seemed to have cause to complain on three occasions to faculty about her in-class demeanor and teaching style. The IHOP incident. Her Brother. The Pipe Bomb... That strikes me as a mask that is wearing thin.