Last Year a Snowstorm, This Year a Hurricane? Really?

[D H]

The number without power is now 7.6 million, and the storm isn't done yet. With that many without power over such an huge area, some of our members won't be back online for a week or more. Restoring power to housing is the lowest priority. Essential services such as hospitals, police stations, fire stations, and transportation come first, then big industry, then small business, and finally houses.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

This should give you an idea of the destruction to my property. Imagine if that branch had been the whole tree and that the tree were larger than it is and that it were closer to my house than it is. Oh the humanity. Your generous contributions to the Jimmy Emergency Relief Fund will enable a South Jersey family, chosen at random, to enjoy a hearty gourmet meal at a 5 star restaurant.

This pile of sticks is all that's left our our once happy one-story brick ranch.

Here's the situation about 100 yards from my house.

 

[D H]

That tree has way too many branches, and this is probably one reason why there are so many outages from this storm. The trees in the northeast haven't been trimmed to mitigate wind damage. There's a good-sized cottage industry in tree trimming in hurricane-prone areas. People charge to climb up trees to trim excess branches. The idea is to let the wind blow through the trees instead of blowing the trees over.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

That tree has way too many branches.

What's more, if you look at the base, although the tree looked fine from the outside, inside it was completely rotted away.

 

[Dembadon]

Of those in the area Gale has not posted yet.

Hopefully she's okay. However, her latest activity was last night around 10PM, so I'm guessing she was somewhere safe with power, or she logged in from a phone with web capabilities.

 

[Jack21222]

After Irene, my parents' house in Baltimore lost power for 7 days. This time, they kept power. Looks like the brunt of this storm hit a bit further north this time. Irene spared New York City for the most part, while Sandy gave the area a nice black eye.

 

[Astronuc]

REUTERS - Sandy, one of the biggest storms ever to hit eastern United States, flooded servers of Datagram Inc in New York City, bringing down several media websites it hosts, including Huffington Post and Gawker.

"We are continuing to battle flooding and fiber outages in downtown New York and Connecticut," a notice posted on Datagram's website said. http://r.reuters.com/wat63t

"Verizon and other carriers in the area are down as well. Generators are unable to pump fuel due to the flooding in the basements," Datagram said.

New York-based Datagram offers server-hosting services, network and Web application support, and database administration.

. . . .

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/sandy-takes-down-huffington-post-121526237.html

That's why emergency equipment should not be in a basement below water level - that is sea or river level + worst expected flood + some extra margin. Underground service is fine - until it get's flooded.

 

[Gale]

Hopefully she's okay. However, her latest activity was last night around 10PM, so I'm guessing she was somewhere safe with power, or she logged in from a phone with web capabilities.

I'm good guys. Power went out only briefly here and the damage around me isn't too bad. Down by the water is a bit of a mess, but downtown is way worse. Did you see the images of battery park? That was crazy to me.

 

[Gale]

Here are a few of photos from today. I live in uptown NYC which is basically up on a hill so it wasn't too terrible, and definitely less flooding than downtown. Mostly lots of trees everywhere. I saw a few buildings with some damaged roofs but the photos didn't turn out well. Hope everyone else is doing alright too!

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/223622_10100986423186912_187803876_n.jpg
This is near Broadway and 100th st I think. Saw a lot of tree branches on top of cars today...

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-prn1/525602_10100986423940402_516311381_n.jpg
Not a very exciting photo, but subway could be closed for the rest of the week. Bridges and tunnels are closed too, so I'm pretty much stuck on the island.

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/523450_10100986424948382_1501167261_n.jpg
Riverside park a couple blocks from my house. The park was closed for the storm so no one got hurt there, but the whole place was pretty much a mess.

http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-snc6/9256_10100986425741792_1543551167_n.jpg
Also Riverside Park. Many places had trees removed already and there were just gaping holes left behind.. Especially where the trees fell across the road.

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/546811_10100986427647972_900608391_n.jpg
No idea what that is, but I guess it blew up from the river?

http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/544952_10100986431076102_681753850_n.jpg
That's Henry Hudson highway. I guess during the surge it was probably covered with water. It was still closed off when I was walking today.

http://sphotos-b.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/644044_10100986434189862_139794741_n.jpg
That's right along the highway again. You can see how the water washed away some of the ground. I can't imagine how bad it is downtown.

 

[SixNein]

Well - I'm on the bad side of that storm.

Either we'll get a lot of snow followed by rain, or we get a lot of rain. Either way, we get significant flooding.

As long as we have electricity, we'll stay dry. Otherwise, my basement will become an indoor pool.

I'm on the cold wet side. Would have liked the snow =/

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Power is still out. The tree that fell on the power line has been cut down, but power has not been restored. Luckily, one of the branches of the fallen tree got caught in a crotch of another tree and so it didn't fall all the way to the ground. If it had, it would surely have snapped the power lines. I suffered no damage on my property. However, on the block next to mine 7 trees fell and two more were stripped of most of their branches. Two of the trees fell on houses causing major damage to their roofs. In other locations within 200 yards of my house, another tree and a major branch came down. The river that snakes through town did not overflow its banks, the high point so far is three feet below the edge. I expect it to continue to rise, but not to overflow. My basement stayed dry.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Here it is Friday and still no power. New York is a hell of a town. The Bronx is up, but the Battery's down.

 

[D H]

Here it is Friday and still no power.

I wouldn't be at all surprised if next Friday you report "Here it is Friday yet again and still no power." We were without power for over six days thanks to Hurricane Ike. Ike and Sandy resulted in similar numbers of people losing power, but with Ike the greatest damage was concentrated in a few counties in Texas. The damage from Sandy is extremely widespread. The widespread nature of that damage will make logistics much more difficult. It's going to take quite some time to get power back up for everyone who lost it.

You are at the bottom of the pecking order unless you're lucky and happen to live in the same subgrid as a hospital, fire station, police station, or major industry. Hospitals, fire stations, and police stations get top priority because the first thing that has to be done after a major storm is to make things safe. The next priority is to get the economy rolling again. Major industry and downtowns comes first, then other concentrated work areas, shopping areas and gas stations, and then little businesses. The lowest priority: Residential housing. Don't get your hopes up for a quick recovery. Count your blessings if it is quick; less than a week is quick.

It takes a lot of people to cut down all the trees that caused the damage, a lot more to restore the power lines once the trees are cleared. You don't have enough such people on the Eastern seaboard. They'll instead have come in from all parts of the country to help out. It takes a bit of time to get all those people on board. Just in our neighborhood, we had tree cutting crews hauled in from Tennessee and Minnesota working on clearing the damage, power crews from California and North Carolina working on restoring power.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

I wouldn't be at all surprised if next Friday you report "Here it is Friday yet again and still no power."

When I called PSE&G, they said that they were aware of our situation and a team would be sent out to assess the situation. The estimated time of arrival of the assessment team is as you say, Friday next week. We are way down on the priority list. Not only are we residential, but only about 20 homes lost power due to 'our' tree so there is little bang for the buck fixing it.

 

[turbo]

Brief outages, and days of rain (finally, it looks dry so far, today). We're OK. Power companies from Maine are shipping personnel to CT, NY, etc to help with the clean-up. Maine is rural and heavily wooded, so there is no lack of talent headed south. Chain saws, pole saws, de-limbers, etc, with bucket trucks. All headed south.

 

[lisab]

When I called PSE&G, they said that they were aware of our situation and a team would be sent out to assess the situation. The estimated time of arrival of the assessment team is as you say, Friday next week. We are way down on the priority list. Not only are we residential, but only about 20 homes lost power due to 'our' tree so there is little bang for the buck fixing it.

Oh noes! Sorry to hear it, Jimmy. I've been in that situation before, no power for 6 days !

 

[D H]

Is this the October surprise for this election?

It's looking like this may well have been the October surprise. O'bama has the luck o' the Irish. The 2008 economic collapse hit early and hard enough, and then kept on collapsing, making a victory for McCain all but impossible. Now in 2012, Hurricane Sandy hit just at the right time to give a boost to Obama.

Hurricane Sandy has topped Romney v. Obama in the news for these last few critical days before the election. Since Sandy hit just a week before the election, people who are still without power on election day aren't quite so prone to take it out on the powers that be in the election as they would have been had it hit a week earlier. Sandy has upstaged Romney, showing the need for a strong federal government with respect to emergencies. Maybe not a big federal government, but not a "turn everything over to the states" federal government, either. There's no way that New Jersey or New York could handle the extreme damage to those states without federal assistance. Romney's past words on FEMA don't help his cause.

Polls in Ohio (which just missed the brunt of Sandy) are moving even further from Romney, and Florida (which has far too much experience with hurricanes) are moving in the direction of Obama (but still training Romney). One last note: The President's approval rating has now moved into positive territory.

 

[Redbelly98]

My house and workplace are still without power in central New Jersey, but there are neighborhoods in town that do have power which makes me hopeful we'll get electricity back soon.

In the meantime, we have hot water, a kerosene heater, and can light our gas stovetop. Also have friends nearby with electricity and internet, which is where I am right now. Our local grocer has generators and has been open for business.

Lots of gas/petrol stations are shut down and there are huge lines of cars waiting to buy gas. My wife and I filled our cars last Friday in preperation.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

My neighbor had graciously offered to lend me his generator. I have a coupon for a free night in a hotel so tomorrow and Sunday we will be in a warm place. But if we don't have power by Monday, I'm going to take him up on the offer.

 

[Redbelly98]

Our power came back on about an hour ago, almost exactly 4 days after it first went out. My fingers are crossed -- we and others have had power come back earlier in the week only for it to go out again.

It has been real nice to have the kerosene heater that my wife had bought well over 10 years ago for heat, and the power inverter I bought last year to provide real lighting (versus dim candlelight) to read by at night.

Update: my wife just read a note that a power transformer went out somewhere in town, so some people who had it are now out again.

 

[dlgoff]

The worst power outage I've experienced here (been here about 30 years now) was for 7 days due to ice. It was a miserable experience so I'm prepared now. I have kerosene and propane lamps. I added a free standing propane heater and have backup propane cooking. Oh. And some batter supplied LED lighting for a short time. I have had to use all these a couple times for short outages.

Nice to see some power being restored.

 

[Galteeth]

Just got out of the jersey shore. No power anywhere, nothing open, no gas etc. But at least in my area not too much physical damage except for the boardwalk.

 

[Astronuc]

Storm was cruel to elderly who refused to evacuate
http://news.yahoo.com/storm-cruel-elderly-refused-evacuate-070445735.html

Some folks refused to evacuate and that unfortunately cost them their lives.


As cold snap looms, Sandy sets NY up for a new fuel crisis
http://news.yahoo.com/cold-snap-looms-sandy-sets-ny-fuel-crisis-041513851.html


We're seeing folks from the affected area coming into our area to buy fuel and supplies. Some are driving 100 miles to get gasoline. Prices have started to increase in response to the increased demand and limited supply.

Factbox: NY fuel crisis may get worse before it gets better
http://news.yahoo.com/factbox-ny-fuel-crisis-may-worse-gets-better-012050487.html

 

[moonman239]

How unfortunate. Move to San Francisco, we don't get very many disasters here. Our biggest problem is an earthquake, but we haven't had a problematic earthquake for a long time.

 

[Astronuc]

Hurricane Sandy Second-Most Powerful Storm
http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-sandy-second-most-powerful-storm-144245618.html

Once Sandy ramped up to a Category 1 hurricane and slammed into New Jersey, the storm's integrated kinetic energy was second only to Hurricane Isabel in 2003, McNoldy wrote in a blog post. In sheer power, Hurricane Sandy ranks second among modern hurricanes, beating even Hurricane Katrina, according to Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.

Basically, Sandy was so large that its integrated kinetic energy was more substantial that higher catergory hurricanes which were smaller.

We're looking at another storm during the middle of this coming week, which will add to the misery of those without a functioning home.

http://news.yahoo.com/storm-brewing-could-threaten-sandy-damaged-beaches-144248738.html

Meanwhile - some areas are recovering (at least partially), while others are still suffering:

Fractured Recovery Divides the Region
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nyregion/fractured-recovery-a-week-after-hurricane-sandy.html

. . .
Despite nonstop work, the numbers were daunting. In New Jersey, Public Service Electric and Gas still had more than 600,000 customers without power on Saturday. Hoboken remained the biggest challenge because of water damage, officials said.

Mr. Cuomo said that in New York, 60 percent of those who lost power in the storm had had it restored, but that 900,000 were still in the dark. On Long Island, where 1.2 million people lost power, about 550,000 had their power back by Saturday morning.

. . . .
The authorities estimated that as many as 100,000 homes and businesses on Long Island had been destroyed or badly damaged in the storm. Sand dunes were flattened and rows of beach houses crushed. The storm’s furious flood tide created new inlets that could become permanent parts of the topography.
. . . .

For Some After the Storm, No Work Means No Pay
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/business/for-hourly-workers-after-the-storm-no-work-no-pay.html

Low-wage workers, more likely to be paid hourly and work at the whim of their employers, have fared worse in the recovery than those at the top of the income scale — in New York City the bottom 20 percent lost $463 in annual income from 2010 to 2011, in contrast to a gain of almost $2,000 for the top quintile. And there are an increasing number of part-time and hourly workers, the type that safety net programs like unemployment are not designed to serve. Since 2009, when the recovery began, 86 percent of the jobs added nationally have been hourly. Over all, about 60 percent of the nation’s jobs are hourly.

Disruption From Storm May Be Felt at the Polls
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/u...eatens-to-disrupt-voting-on-election-day.html


In the long term -

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/will-hurricane-sandy-s-aftermath-crush-the-housing-recovery-.html

The destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy has the potential to sink real estate values across the Northeast, and is threatening to derail the national housing recovery that has been gaining steam in recent months.
. . . .
It's not yet clear what the total cost of recovery from Sandy will be. But there was much in harm's way: According to CoreLogic, a real estate data firm based in California, $88 billion worth of homes were put at risk by the storm. New York has $35.1 billion at risk, while New Jersey has $22.6 billion.
. . . .

 

[Evo]

It was still only a category 1 hurricane and did damage expected of a cat 1 hurricane, no worse. Areas of damage were spotty. I hate it when things like this get so exaggerated. It covered a large area and as was mentioned earlier that makes restoral efforts slower since you can't concentrate crews in a small area.

But the power of a category-1 hurricane should not be downplayed. Category-1 hurricanes can cause significant damage, such as uprooting mature trees, ripping off roof shingles, or even toppling mobile homes.

And there’s no guarantee that a higher category hurricane will inflict more damage. For example, a category-2 that strikes an unprepared metropolitan area might wreak more havoc than a category-4 that hits a rural area. To determine the potential for damage, population density, total rainfall, and local terrain all need to be taken into consideration.

Read more at http://hotword.dictionary.com/categ...-the-numbers-really-mean/#l6kWs1tQILF5pwGZ.99

Category 1Category 1
Sustained winds 33–42 m/s 64–82 kn
Hurricane Lester near landfall
119–153 km/h 74–95 mph
Normal central pressure, with exceptions 980–994 mbar 28.94 inHg
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage

Category 1 storms usually cause no significant structural damage to most well-constructed permanent structures; however, they can topple unanchored mobile homes, as well as uproot or snap numerous trees. Poorly attached roof shingles or tiles can blow off. Coastal flooding and pier damage are often associated with Category 1 storms. Power outages are typically widespread to extensive, sometimes lasting several days. Even though it is the least intense type of hurricane, the storm can still produce widespread damage and can be a life-threatening storm.[5]

I lived through hurricane Carla in houston. Now THAT was a hurricane. 300 miles of coastline affected

Carla made landfall on the afternoon of the 11th on the northeast part of Matagorda Island as a strong Category 4 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 931 millibars, or 27.49 inches of mercury, and sustained winds of 145 mph

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=hurricanecarla

That's worse than Sandy. It will always stay in my mind. My aunt and uncle were visiting from France due to my Uncle's temporary assignment in houston. They were staying at a nearby apartment on the second floor. My mother demanded that they come stay with us since we lived in an experimental steel frame and brick one story home.

A couple of days after the storm and streets were getting cleared so people could drive, we went to their apartment complex, which no longer had a second floor.

I feel for the people that had damage, but growing up in houston, I am all too familiar with tropical Storms and hurricanes and it really irks me when storms are blown out of proportion.

 

[Andre]

One may also wonder about the integrated kinectic energy of these storms

 

[Astronuc]

It was still only a category 1 hurricane and did damage expected of a cat 1 hurricane, no worse. Areas of damage were spotty. I hate it when things like this get so exaggerated. It covered a large area and as was mentioned earlier that makes restoral efforts slower since you can't concentrate crews in a small area.
. . . .
I lived through hurricane Carla in houston. Now THAT was a hurricane. 300 miles of coastline affected

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=hurricanecarla

That's worse than Sandy.

Actually, about 350 to 400 miles of coastline just in NJ and Long Island were affected - flooded and/or affected by high wind. On Long Island alone, the authorities estimate 100,000 homes and commercial buildings were damaged or destroyed (not sure if that includes parts of NYCity, e.g., Brooklyn and Queens). A similarly large number in NJ were affected.

Those numbers don't include NC, VA, PA, DE or CT. Damage seems to be spotty in those states.

I don't think the threat of the storm was exaggerated in NJ and NY. It seems to have been spot on.

 

[Andre]

It appears that most of the damage was due to flooding. It seems Sandies landfall was close to high -full moon- tide which added some height to the average sea level during high tide, for a total of 13.88 feet.

For comparison, notice that the great gale of 1821 hit during low tide:

The hurricane produced a storm surge of 13 feet (4 m) in only one hour at Battery Park. Manhattan Island was completely flooded to Canal Street; one hurricane researcher remarked that the storm surge flooding would have been much worse, had the hurricane not struck at low tide.[13]

The average difference in low and high tide at NY is about 6 feet, suggesting that the 1821 event might have been at 18-19 feet had it been at high tide too. And maybe the height of Sandies flooding could have been around 8 feet, had it been at low tide.

Apparantly the message is that things happen and then they happen again.

 

[D H]

It was still only a category 1 hurricane and did damage expected of a cat 1 hurricane, no worse.

Sandy did a lot more damage than expected of a "typical" category 1 hurricane. The Saffir-Simpson scale is lousy at predicting storm surge, rainfall amounts, economic damage, and death. Hurricane experts have been trying to steer governments, meteorologists/weather forecasters, and the public away from the Saffir-Simpson scale for the last five to ten years. Integrated Kinetic Energy appears to be a much better metric, and this explains in part why Sandy was wreaked so much damage. It's not exaggerated.

 

[russ_watters]

I suppose it depends on what you are trying to predict. Integrated KE would presumably be a good predictor of total damage, but storm intensity would be a better predictor of intensity of damage. Ie, a large category 1 hurricane will produce a lot of damage over a wide area, but a small category 5 hurricane is still more likely to kill you if you try to ride it out.

 

[mheslep]

I think the results you mention would not be expected to be a function of just Saffir-Simpson, but rather something like

[surge, damage, death] = f(Saffir-Simpson, low/high tide, moon cycle, population density, property value)

 

[Astronuc]

One may also wonder about the integrated kinectic energy of these storms

Why? I think those concerned are looking for a better metric, as in

∫ ρ(x) v²(x) dV, where x is the position vector, and the integration is over the volume, and v is the wind velocity. Then there is the tidal effect (flooding) which is quite separate.

We can wonder all we want about the IKE of historic storms, but since there is no way to measure the wind field or size, it would not seem possible to determine the IKE.

I suppose it depends on what you are trying to predict. Integrated KE would presumably be a good predictor of total damage, but storm intensity would be a better predictor of intensity of damage. Ie, a large category 1 hurricane will produce a lot of damage over a wide area, but a small category 5 hurricane is still more likely to kill you if you try to ride it out.

It depends on the size (diameter) and how quickly the hurricane dissipates.

Clearly, the winds of Sandy were not as destructive as those of Andrew. But the associated tidal surge into a densely populated area has been rather destructive.

I think the results you mention would not be expected to be a function of just Saffir-Simpson, but rather something like

[surge, damage, death] = f(Saffir-Simpson, low/high tide, moon cycle, population density, property value)

The damage models will have to consider the destruction/damage from winds + destruction/damage from flooding.

Insurance companies will have to rethink their risk models, just like Japan has to rethink their seismic/tsunami risk models. It would appear some communities may have to be totally condemned, since every home was flooded.

There seems to be an increasing trend -
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/dc567855de2aed28ef404de0a22b1a6e.png

 

[Andre]

There seems to be an increasing trend -
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/dc567855de2aed28ef404de0a22b1a6e.png

which is attributed to increased monitoring capabilities, especially of the very short lived storms (<2 days), which increase toward the end of the period. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk_08_recount.pdf , Landsea et al 2010, http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf , http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf

 

[mheslep]

Frequency may be up. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic seems to be about flat since 1950 (trendline: y=0.18x + 97)

 

[Astronuc]

Disappointed NYC marathoners run in aid of Sandy victims
http://news.yahoo.com/disappointed-nyc-marathoners-run-aid-sandy-victims-040500525--spt.html

Early Sunday, more than 1,000 people, many of whom had planned to run the race, crowded onto two Staten Island Ferry boats, headed to the stricken borough with relief supplies ranging from food to plastic bags to help residents store belongings from damaged or destroyed homes.

. . . .

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Sometime during the night, the power came back on.

 

[dkotschessaa]

Disappointed NYC marathoners run in aid of Sandy victims
http://news.yahoo.com/disappointed-nyc-marathoners-run-aid-sandy-victims-040500525--spt.html

That's fantastic.

 

[dkotschessaa]

Oh crikey...
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-weather-watch-2012-2013

 

[Borg]

Oh crikey...
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-weather-watch-2012-2013

Looks like it's time to update the title of the thread to ...This Year a Hurricane AND a Snowstorm.