Last Year a Snowstorm, This Year a Hurricane? Really?

[dlgoff]

The worst power outage I've experienced here (been here about 30 years now) was for 7 days due to ice. It was a miserable experience so I'm prepared now. I have kerosene and propane lamps. I added a free standing propane heater and have backup propane cooking. Oh. And some batter supplied LED lighting for a short time. I have had to use all these a couple times for short outages.

Nice to see some power being restored.

 

[Galteeth]

Just got out of the jersey shore. No power anywhere, nothing open, no gas etc. But at least in my area not too much physical damage except for the boardwalk.

 

[Astronuc]

Storm was cruel to elderly who refused to evacuate
http://news.yahoo.com/storm-cruel-elderly-refused-evacuate-070445735.html

Some folks refused to evacuate and that unfortunately cost them their lives.


As cold snap looms, Sandy sets NY up for a new fuel crisis
http://news.yahoo.com/cold-snap-looms-sandy-sets-ny-fuel-crisis-041513851.html


We're seeing folks from the affected area coming into our area to buy fuel and supplies. Some are driving 100 miles to get gasoline. Prices have started to increase in response to the increased demand and limited supply.

Factbox: NY fuel crisis may get worse before it gets better
http://news.yahoo.com/factbox-ny-fuel-crisis-may-worse-gets-better-012050487.html

 

[moonman239]

How unfortunate. Move to San Francisco, we don't get very many disasters here. Our biggest problem is an earthquake, but we haven't had a problematic earthquake for a long time.

 

[Astronuc]

Hurricane Sandy Second-Most Powerful Storm
http://news.yahoo.com/hurricane-sandy-second-most-powerful-storm-144245618.html

Once Sandy ramped up to a Category 1 hurricane and slammed into New Jersey, the storm's integrated kinetic energy was second only to Hurricane Isabel in 2003, McNoldy wrote in a blog post. In sheer power, Hurricane Sandy ranks second among modern hurricanes, beating even Hurricane Katrina, according to Brian McNoldy, a hurricane researcher at the University of Miami.

Basically, Sandy was so large that its integrated kinetic energy was more substantial that higher catergory hurricanes which were smaller.

We're looking at another storm during the middle of this coming week, which will add to the misery of those without a functioning home.

http://news.yahoo.com/storm-brewing-could-threaten-sandy-damaged-beaches-144248738.html

Meanwhile - some areas are recovering (at least partially), while others are still suffering:

Fractured Recovery Divides the Region
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/04/nyregion/fractured-recovery-a-week-after-hurricane-sandy.html

. . .
Despite nonstop work, the numbers were daunting. In New Jersey, Public Service Electric and Gas still had more than 600,000 customers without power on Saturday. Hoboken remained the biggest challenge because of water damage, officials said.

Mr. Cuomo said that in New York, 60 percent of those who lost power in the storm had had it restored, but that 900,000 were still in the dark. On Long Island, where 1.2 million people lost power, about 550,000 had their power back by Saturday morning.

. . . .
The authorities estimated that as many as 100,000 homes and businesses on Long Island had been destroyed or badly damaged in the storm. Sand dunes were flattened and rows of beach houses crushed. The storm’s furious flood tide created new inlets that could become permanent parts of the topography.
. . . .

For Some After the Storm, No Work Means No Pay
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/business/for-hourly-workers-after-the-storm-no-work-no-pay.html

Low-wage workers, more likely to be paid hourly and work at the whim of their employers, have fared worse in the recovery than those at the top of the income scale — in New York City the bottom 20 percent lost $463 in annual income from 2010 to 2011, in contrast to a gain of almost $2,000 for the top quintile. And there are an increasing number of part-time and hourly workers, the type that safety net programs like unemployment are not designed to serve. Since 2009, when the recovery began, 86 percent of the jobs added nationally have been hourly. Over all, about 60 percent of the nation’s jobs are hourly.

Disruption From Storm May Be Felt at the Polls
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/11/03/u...eatens-to-disrupt-voting-on-election-day.html


In the long term -

http://homes.yahoo.com/news/will-hurricane-sandy-s-aftermath-crush-the-housing-recovery-.html

The destruction caused by Hurricane Sandy has the potential to sink real estate values across the Northeast, and is threatening to derail the national housing recovery that has been gaining steam in recent months.
. . . .
It's not yet clear what the total cost of recovery from Sandy will be. But there was much in harm's way: According to CoreLogic, a real estate data firm based in California, $88 billion worth of homes were put at risk by the storm. New York has $35.1 billion at risk, while New Jersey has $22.6 billion.
. . . .

 

[Evo]

It was still only a category 1 hurricane and did damage expected of a cat 1 hurricane, no worse. Areas of damage were spotty. I hate it when things like this get so exaggerated. It covered a large area and as was mentioned earlier that makes restoral efforts slower since you can't concentrate crews in a small area.

But the power of a category-1 hurricane should not be downplayed. Category-1 hurricanes can cause significant damage, such as uprooting mature trees, ripping off roof shingles, or even toppling mobile homes.

And there’s no guarantee that a higher category hurricane will inflict more damage. For example, a category-2 that strikes an unprepared metropolitan area might wreak more havoc than a category-4 that hits a rural area. To determine the potential for damage, population density, total rainfall, and local terrain all need to be taken into consideration.

Read more at http://hotword.dictionary.com/categ...-the-numbers-really-mean/#l6kWs1tQILF5pwGZ.99

Category 1Category 1
Sustained winds 33–42 m/s 64–82 kn
Hurricane Lester near landfall
119–153 km/h 74–95 mph
Normal central pressure, with exceptions 980–994 mbar 28.94 inHg
Very dangerous winds will produce some damage

Category 1 storms usually cause no significant structural damage to most well-constructed permanent structures; however, they can topple unanchored mobile homes, as well as uproot or snap numerous trees. Poorly attached roof shingles or tiles can blow off. Coastal flooding and pier damage are often associated with Category 1 storms. Power outages are typically widespread to extensive, sometimes lasting several days. Even though it is the least intense type of hurricane, the storm can still produce widespread damage and can be a life-threatening storm.[5]

I lived through hurricane Carla in houston. Now THAT was a hurricane. 300 miles of coastline affected

Carla made landfall on the afternoon of the 11th on the northeast part of Matagorda Island as a strong Category 4 hurricane with a minimum central pressure of 931 millibars, or 27.49 inches of mercury, and sustained winds of 145 mph

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=hurricanecarla

That's worse than Sandy. It will always stay in my mind. My aunt and uncle were visiting from France due to my Uncle's temporary assignment in houston. They were staying at a nearby apartment on the second floor. My mother demanded that they come stay with us since we lived in an experimental steel frame and brick one story home.

A couple of days after the storm and streets were getting cleared so people could drive, we went to their apartment complex, which no longer had a second floor.

I feel for the people that had damage, but growing up in houston, I am all too familiar with tropical Storms and hurricanes and it really irks me when storms are blown out of proportion.

 

[Andre]

One may also wonder about the integrated kinectic energy of these storms

 

[Astronuc]

It was still only a category 1 hurricane and did damage expected of a cat 1 hurricane, no worse. Areas of damage were spotty. I hate it when things like this get so exaggerated. It covered a large area and as was mentioned earlier that makes restoral efforts slower since you can't concentrate crews in a small area.
. . . .
I lived through hurricane Carla in houston. Now THAT was a hurricane. 300 miles of coastline affected

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=hurricanecarla

That's worse than Sandy.

Actually, about 350 to 400 miles of coastline just in NJ and Long Island were affected - flooded and/or affected by high wind. On Long Island alone, the authorities estimate 100,000 homes and commercial buildings were damaged or destroyed (not sure if that includes parts of NYCity, e.g., Brooklyn and Queens). A similarly large number in NJ were affected.

Those numbers don't include NC, VA, PA, DE or CT. Damage seems to be spotty in those states.

I don't think the threat of the storm was exaggerated in NJ and NY. It seems to have been spot on.

 

[Andre]

It appears that most of the damage was due to flooding. It seems Sandies landfall was close to high -full moon- tide which added some height to the average sea level during high tide, for a total of 13.88 feet.

For comparison, notice that the great gale of 1821 hit during low tide:

The hurricane produced a storm surge of 13 feet (4 m) in only one hour at Battery Park. Manhattan Island was completely flooded to Canal Street; one hurricane researcher remarked that the storm surge flooding would have been much worse, had the hurricane not struck at low tide.[13]

The average difference in low and high tide at NY is about 6 feet, suggesting that the 1821 event might have been at 18-19 feet had it been at high tide too. And maybe the height of Sandies flooding could have been around 8 feet, had it been at low tide.

Apparantly the message is that things happen and then they happen again.

 

[D H]

It was still only a category 1 hurricane and did damage expected of a cat 1 hurricane, no worse.

Sandy did a lot more damage than expected of a "typical" category 1 hurricane. The Saffir-Simpson scale is lousy at predicting storm surge, rainfall amounts, economic damage, and death. Hurricane experts have been trying to steer governments, meteorologists/weather forecasters, and the public away from the Saffir-Simpson scale for the last five to ten years. Integrated Kinetic Energy appears to be a much better metric, and this explains in part why Sandy was wreaked so much damage. It's not exaggerated.

 

[russ_watters]

I suppose it depends on what you are trying to predict. Integrated KE would presumably be a good predictor of total damage, but storm intensity would be a better predictor of intensity of damage. Ie, a large category 1 hurricane will produce a lot of damage over a wide area, but a small category 5 hurricane is still more likely to kill you if you try to ride it out.

 

[mheslep]

I think the results you mention would not be expected to be a function of just Saffir-Simpson, but rather something like

[surge, damage, death] = f(Saffir-Simpson, low/high tide, moon cycle, population density, property value)

 

[Astronuc]

One may also wonder about the integrated kinectic energy of these storms

Why? I think those concerned are looking for a better metric, as in

∫ ρ(x) v²(x) dV, where x is the position vector, and the integration is over the volume, and v is the wind velocity. Then there is the tidal effect (flooding) which is quite separate.

We can wonder all we want about the IKE of historic storms, but since there is no way to measure the wind field or size, it would not seem possible to determine the IKE.

I suppose it depends on what you are trying to predict. Integrated KE would presumably be a good predictor of total damage, but storm intensity would be a better predictor of intensity of damage. Ie, a large category 1 hurricane will produce a lot of damage over a wide area, but a small category 5 hurricane is still more likely to kill you if you try to ride it out.

It depends on the size (diameter) and how quickly the hurricane dissipates.

Clearly, the winds of Sandy were not as destructive as those of Andrew. But the associated tidal surge into a densely populated area has been rather destructive.

I think the results you mention would not be expected to be a function of just Saffir-Simpson, but rather something like

[surge, damage, death] = f(Saffir-Simpson, low/high tide, moon cycle, population density, property value)

The damage models will have to consider the destruction/damage from winds + destruction/damage from flooding.

Insurance companies will have to rethink their risk models, just like Japan has to rethink their seismic/tsunami risk models. It would appear some communities may have to be totally condemned, since every home was flooded.

There seems to be an increasing trend -
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/dc567855de2aed28ef404de0a22b1a6e.png

 

[Andre]

There seems to be an increasing trend -
http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/en/timeline/dc567855de2aed28ef404de0a22b1a6e.png

which is attributed to increased monitoring capabilities, especially of the very short lived storms (<2 days), which increase toward the end of the period. http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk_08_recount.pdf , Landsea et al 2010, http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/vk10_hurrrecount.pdf , http://www.gfdl.noaa.gov/cms-filesystem-action/user_files/gav/publications/VVKS_10_Shorties.pdf

 

[mheslep]

Frequency may be up. Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the Atlantic seems to be about flat since 1950 (trendline: y=0.18x + 97)

 

[Astronuc]

Disappointed NYC marathoners run in aid of Sandy victims
http://news.yahoo.com/disappointed-nyc-marathoners-run-aid-sandy-victims-040500525--spt.html

Early Sunday, more than 1,000 people, many of whom had planned to run the race, crowded onto two Staten Island Ferry boats, headed to the stricken borough with relief supplies ranging from food to plastic bags to help residents store belongings from damaged or destroyed homes.

. . . .

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Sometime during the night, the power came back on.

 

[dkotschessaa]

Disappointed NYC marathoners run in aid of Sandy victims
http://news.yahoo.com/disappointed-nyc-marathoners-run-aid-sandy-victims-040500525--spt.html

That's fantastic.

 

[dkotschessaa]

Oh crikey...
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-weather-watch-2012-2013

 

[Borg]

Oh crikey...
http://www.weather.com/news/weather-winter/winter-weather-watch-2012-2013

Looks like it's time to update the title of the thread to ...This Year a Hurricane AND a Snowstorm.