Last Year a Snowstorm, This Year a Hurricane? Really?

[Galteeth]

Try again. That doesn't parse, at least not to me. I can't make heads or tails of what you typed.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/has-a...ided-to-use-even-go-want-to-do-look-more-like

 

[Borek]

Predictions start to home on Turbo's home as well.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Sandy had been heading northeast, but now has turned due north. I only just a few minutes ago got an explanation of why it is forecasted to continue turning northwest. There are two issues. First, the jet stream dips south of Sandy coming from the west and then turns north itself, east of Sandy. Thus the shape of the jet stream is a bobby pin with Sandy pinched between the tongs. Second, there is a high pressure system to the northeast of Sandy that will prevent it from heading in that direction. Although we are going to get inundated with enough rain to cause flooding, the worst of it will be about 30 miles south of here. Right now there is a light rain and winds of about 20 - 25 mph.

 

[russ_watters]

Easiest commute ever. This afternoon probably won't be.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

You might stay in a motel tonight.

 

[Redbelly98]

Try again. That doesn't parse, at least not to me. I can't make heads or tails of what you typed.

http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/has-a...ided-to-use-even-go-want-to-do-look-more-like

Ah, so it's a more recent version of "All your base are belong to us."

Easiest commute ever. This afternoon probably won't be.

I'm surprised your workplace isn't closed today. Most up here in central NJ (including mine) are. Friday we were advised to take our laptops home, so we can still get some work done.

 

[Doc Al]

I'm surprised your workplace isn't closed today. Most up here in central NJ (including mine) are.

My work site is shut down. Wind is whipping around pretty good. I suspect it will get worse.

 

[russ_watters]

My office is in Plymout Meeting, northwest of the city, so roads are open. And I live another half hour nortwest, so I'll be driving away from the storm on the way home (and up!).

A client in RI emaied early this morning that the need a new study... by Wednesday. Suuuure.

About half of the office is in.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

My wife works in Plymouth Meeting too. She is staying home today.

 

[D H]

Sandy had been heading northeast, but now has turned due north. I only just a few minutes ago got an explanation of why it is forecasted to continue turning northwest. There are two issues. First, the jet stream dips south of Sandy coming from the west and then turns north itself, east of Sandy. Thus the shape of the jet stream is a bobby pin with Sandy pinched between the tongs. Second, there is a high pressure system to the northeast of Sandy that will prevent it from heading in that direction.

This evil combination of events is what makes this such a perfect storm, even more so than the perfect storm of 1991. At this time of year the jet stream over the continental US typically swings south and then back north, with that northward arm east of the coast. That was the situation in 1991 with it's perfect storm. That storm never made landfall.

The cold front that dipped into Texas and Florida late last week would normally have given you on the east coast your first taste of winter, and it would normally have pushed this hurricane off to the northeast, never to make landfall. Instead, that Canadian high off to the northeast is keeping the jet stream and that cold front from moving eastward. Just to give an idea of how crazily inverted things are, right now it is warmer in Boston (55°F) than it is in Jacksonville, Florida (50°F). Even Bangor, Maine and Halifax, Nova Scotia are warmer this morning than is Jacksonville.

The biggest uncertainty in the model predictions was exactly when and where the storm would make that predicted turn to the north and then northwest. The computer models have converged now that the storm has started that turn. Atlantic City appears to be in the crosshairs.

This is going to be rough on Philadelphia, but not near as rough as a landfall on the Delmarva would have been. That would have sent a very nasty tidal surge up the funnel-shaped Delaware Bay. It's also going to be rough on NYC, but not near as rough as a landfall a bit further north would have been. That would have sent a very nasty tidal surge across Long Island Sound. That's still going to happen, but not quite as bad as it could have been.

 

[russ_watters]

My wife works in Plymouth Meeting too. She is staying home today.

But you live in Jersey, right? I wouldn't want to be driving east this afternoon either. Most of our Jersey staff didn't come in.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

But you live in Jersey, right? I wouldn't want to be driving east this afternoon either. Most of our Jersey staff didn't come in.

Yes, she takes the PA turnpike from NJ. Going home it would almost due east into the storm. The distinction isn't that strong though since the winds will be from the north.

 

[Astronuc]

Two headlines this morning in the NYTimes

The real story:

Panicked Evacuations Mix With Nonchalance in Hurricane Sandy's Path
By CARA BUCKLEY
In New York City, with memories of last year's less-than-ferocious Hurricane Irene still fresh, some skeptical residents simply would not move.

Irene was pretty bad for our area. Some who didn't take it seriously had to be rescued, or otherwise paid the consequences.

and the Sideshow (or the surreal story):

In Middle of a Messy Election, a Nightmare Makes Landfall
By PETER BAKER
Recounts, contested ballots, an Electoral College at odds with the popular vote: now adding to the campaigns' potential horrors, a freakish storm may warp an election two years in the making.


We now have continuous breezes.

 

[jtbell]

The cold front that is one of the other ingredients of "Frankenstorm" is moving into the Carolinas. It's sunny but chilly here in SC this morning. To the north of us, there is a winter storm warning for tonight in the mountains north of Asheville NC. Several inches of heavy wet snow are expected. High winds have brought down trees in the area to the south of Asheville.

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Sandy has made a small, but measurable move to the west as it starts to draw its own initial across the northeast. The wind is steady at about 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph. and the rain continues light.

 

[Astronuc]

Apparently the maximum sustained winds have increased from 75 to 85 mph, which is unusual. It seems to be related to the hurricane enountering the other systems.

We're supposed to get high winds this afternoon.

 

[D H]

Apparently the maximum sustained winds have increased from 75 to 85 mph, which is unusual. It seems to be related to the hurricane enountering the other systems.

That unusual strengthening has been expected. From this morning's 5AM discussion (Hurricane Sandy Discussion #28) sent out by the National Hurricane Center, http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/230256.shtml:

Since the hurricane will traverse the Gulf Stream this morning...and the shear is not too strong at this time...some more strengthening as a tropical cyclone is possible in the next few hours. However...the main mechanism for intensification later today should be baroclinic forcing.

Surface data indicate that a well-marked warm and cold front lie not far to the north and west of the center of Sandy. As the circulation interacts with these fronts...the cyclone should become extratropical later today. Extratropical transition is expected to be complete before the center crosses the coast. However...this transformation will not diminish the overall impacts from winds to hurricane strength...life-threatening storm surge...and flooding rains associated with this dangerous weather system.
​

Note: Those ellipses are not mine.

 

[russ_watters]

Strengthened a little more, to 80kt (90mph): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291443.shtml

 

[D H]

Strengthened a little more, to 80kt (90mph): http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/291443.shtml

That discussion in readable form (AS OPPOSED TO THE ALLCAPS NONSENSE THAT THE WEATHER BUREAU STILL USES):
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201218.disc.html?MR=1

 

[Astronuc]

I should have pointed out earlier that we had folks calling 911 during the height of the storm. They wanted to be rescued. They were told to sit and wait, because emergency personnel were not going out in the high winds and floods. In some cases, emergency services could not get through because of the flooding.

This is why one takes these storms seriously, and don't go out in the storm -

http://articles.nydailynews.com/2011-08-29/news/30111251_1_death-toll-separate-deaths-bronx-man

 

[russ_watters]

That discussion in readable form (AS OPPOSED TO THE ALLCAPS NONSENSE THAT THE WEATHER BUREAU STILL USES):
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/at201218.disc.html?MR=1

As per your previous, I've also always found their writing style to be unusually informal.

 

[dkotschessaa]

I moved from PA to Florida a few years ago. Here it's in the 50s, and up there they are getting hit with Sandy. So ironic...

Stay safe everyone. May the forces NOT be with you on this particular occasion...

 

[turbo]

Mid 50s outside with light gusty winds from the East and steady (though not drenching) rain.

 

[dkotschessaa]

If you have hatches, is is recommended that you batten them.

 

[Andre]

Meanwhile seeing gust approaching 40 mph south of NYC

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/22026080/winds.jpg

But on the wind map the high pressure ridge north from Dallas up all the way looks very impressive. Unusual?

 

[dkotschessaa]

Meanwhile seeing gust approaching 40 mph south of NYC

https://dl.dropbox.com/u/22026080/winds.jpg

But on the wind map the high pressure ridge north from Dallas up all the way looks very impressive. Unusual?

Looks hairy to me.

 

[George Jones]

My in-laws in Toronto should get a bit of a soaking. Here, in north, central British Columbia, it is -6 (21 F), and we have received at least 15 cm (6 inches) of snow over the last 36 hours.

 

[dkotschessaa]

I'm watching this webcam, from Perkasie PA, not *too* far from where a lot of my family is:
http://www.ustream.tv/channel/perkasiestormcam

Right now just looks like a kind of sinister calm rain...

 

[Redbelly98]

Pretty windy and wet right now, but the birds are still coming to our feeders.

 

[turbo]

Atlantic City has extensive flooding - sections of boardwalk have been destroyed.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/29/atlantic-city-flooding-photos_n_2039130.html

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

It looks like the worst of it will pass to the south of here. Also, the speed is picking up which turns out to be a very good thing. If current conditions prevail, it will hit land at 5 pm rather than 8 pm when it would have coincided with high tide.

 

[Vorde]

I'm far enough inland that I'm not worried about any direct wind damage, and the only tree within striking distance of my house fell on it last year, so I think I'm just going to have to wait out the rain and inevitable power outage.

 

[D H]

It looks like the worst of it will pass to the south of here.

It looks like the eye will pass just south of where you live. That's often the very worst place to be, the dirty side of the storm just outside the eye wall. Hopefully the thirty or so mile journey inland the storm will take before reaching you will have toned the storm down a bit. I wish you the very best of luck through this nasty mess.

 

[turbo]

Just an update. Jimmy just called, and they are doing fine. Lots of power outages in NJ, but it seems like everything is fine there.

 

[Borek]

Judging from google Earth and its radar maps eye just hit the land, but it is about 140 kilometers (which is how much? 85 miles?) South from Jimmy's place. And I think so far he was missed by the heaviest rain (but I am not watching the map all the time).

 

[Astronuc]

It looks like the eye will along Delware Bay. Philadelphia will probably experience high winds. There will be heavy rains in Delaware and eastern Maryland, then central PA along the Susquehanna River. There is apparently substantial flooding along the southern shore of NJ.

Meanwhile - Crane dangles from NYC high-rise
http://news.yahoo.com/crane-dangles-nyc-high-rise-clearing-streets-192109191.html

We've only had slight tree damage, but the winds still haven't reached their expected maximum yet. We're experiencing intermittent voltage drops as the local distribution system reacts to trees contacting the power lines.

Down by the coast, it's worse than here.
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/sandy-power-outages-start-piling-up-2012-10-29/

As of 3 p.m. Eastern, the Department of Energy reported at least 316,500 customers were without power, up sharply from just 36,400 five hours earlier.

Long Island Power Authority, which covers one of the service areas most vulnerable to Atlantic hurricanes, reported more than 148,000 customers were currently without power, while New York outages overall had risen to more than 105,000.

. . . .

 

[rootX]

Bit of windy here not sure if it's because of Sandy. And heard of a power outage down south of here. We might see whatever left of Sandy maybe few days from now.

 

[Astronuc]

Bit of windy here not sure if it's because of Sandy. And heard of a power outage down south of here. We might see whatever left of Sandy maybe few days from now.

The center of the tropical depression should be near Ottawa/Montreal on Thursday afternoon, around Quebec City by Friday afternoon - according to current predictions, which could change.

It seems to be weakening relatively rapidly since making landfall.

On the other hand, a strong gust took down one of largest trees, part of which fell on the neighbor's garage.

 

[rootX]

The center of the tropical depression should be near Ottawa/Montreal on Thursday afternoon, around Quebec City by Friday afternoon - according to current predictions, which could change.

It seems to be weakening relatively rapidly since making landfall.

On the other hand, a strong gust took down one of largest trees, part of which fell on the neighbor's garage.

Yes, it won't be here until Wed/Thursday. But, many people are thinking that Sandy is here already even though it's just a light breeze outside and there's nothing in weather forecast. Roads are quite empty so it's just some sober people and all drunk people outside on the streets

 

[Astronuc]

Yahoo News: Superstorm Sandy roars ashore; 3 million without power

but the line won't load. This happened during Irene when power went out over wide areas, and some websites were off-line for weeks.



Meanwhile - someone posted a pic about the high winds in NY harbor.

http://sphotos-a.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-ash3/554216_457272247645495_1844776100_n.jpg

 

[russ_watters]

Final NHC advisory: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT3+shtml/300250.shtml

 

[Astronuc]

Flooding in parts of NY City.
http://instagram.com/p/RY57HLNzpI/?fb_action_ids=10151215240594507

Cars under water on Avenue C & 14th Street in #NYC.

Transformer short - http://news.ninemsn.com.au/world/2012/10/30/12/52/transformer-explosion-filmed-in-manhattan

The crane on top of a building in NYC. The moment is buckled was recorded on video.
http://video.au.msn.com/watch/video/9raw-crane-buckles-on-ny-skyscraper/x36weqt


http://news.yahoo.com/superstorm-sandy-slams-atlantic-coast-sends-surge-seawater-041024607.html

. . . The sea surged a record of nearly 13 feet (4 metres) at the foot of Manhattan, flooding the financial district and subway tunnels.

The 10 deaths were in New Jersey, New York, Maryland, Pennsylvania and Connecticut. Police in Toronto said a woman was killed by a falling sign as high winds closed in on Canada's largest city.

As it made its way toward land, it converged with a cold-weather system that turned into a fearsome superstorm, a monstrous hybrid consisting not only of rain and high wind but of snow. Forecasters warned of 20-foot (6-meter) waves bashing into the Chicago lakefront and up to 3 feet (0.9 metres) of snow in West Virginia.

Storm damage was projected at $10 billion to $20 billion, meaning it could prove to be one of the costliest natural disasters in U.S. history.

. . . .

It appears the Brooklyn-Battery Tunnel is flooded. Good thing the authorities closed it. http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50134146n

CBS News Report - http://www.cbsnews.com/video/watch/?id=50134153n
Heavy snows in the Appalacian mountains.

A replica of the HMS Bounty sunk in the storm. Weren't the crew watching out for the storm?!

 

[Borek]

Google Earth shows two eyes for Sandy now, one of them 35 miles from Jimmy's place (I know location of Jimmy's house only approximately, so I can be a mile or two off).

 

[Jimmy Snyder]

Just an update. Jimmy just called, and they are doing fine. Lots of power outages in NJ, but it seems like everything is fine there.

Thanks turbo. Last night at 5pm, a tree came down on my neighbor's yard and took out the power for a couple dozen families in my immediate vicinity. By itself, it wouldn't be a problem, but there are 1.2 million customers of my electric company without power so I can't say when things will get back to normal. The river did not overflow its banks and my basement is bone dry. There were strong winds when I went to sleep last night, but not now at 5 in the morning. A light rain is falling. I am in the parking lot of the hospital stealing their wifi. Borek is right, at closest approach, the eye passed just about 35 miles south of us.

 

[turbo]

Duke needs a long (pooping) walk today. My wife took him out briefly this morning, but the rain was heavy. I guess we have to put on our raincoats...

 

[russ_watters]

Though the track of the storm was amazingly accurate five days in advance, it was a major miss on rainfall predictions for me. Saturday night they were predicting 6-12 inches, Sunday they dropped it to 5-10, and we ended up with just 2. It looked, during the day, like the extratropical transition sucked all the moisture out to the east prior to landfall. It socked Delaware and DC and a little bit of south NJ, but that was it.

There are a lot of power outages from the wind, but no major damage in my area. At least I'll have an easy commute again, with all schools and the entire city of Philadelphia still shut down.

 

[dkotschessaa]

Glad to see people are still posting. So far it seems my PA family is without power, but running on generators and still able to update through facebook and such.

 

[Borek]

Of those in the area Gale has not posted yet.

 

[dkotschessaa]

Power outages seem to be pretty widespread, and damages/injuries/worse not so much. So I am comfortable in assuming most of the "not-heard-froms" are due to power. Or they are still sleeping...

 

[Astronuc]

Superstorm Sandy flooded parts of the New York City subway system, rail yards and bus depots, creating what officials are calling the biggest disaster of its 108 years in existence.

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/abc-blogs/sandy-hits-ny-subway-system-hard-083550815--abc-news-topstories.html

NEW YORK (AP) — A huge fire has destroyed at least 50 homes in a flooded neighborhood in the New York City borough of Queens.

More than 190 firefighters were trying to contain the blaze in the Breezy Point section and two people have suffered minor injuries, a fire department spokesman said.

. . . .

http://news.yahoo.com/least-50-flooded-houses-destroyed-nyc-fire-085028999.html

Authorities in NYCity were concerned about a 12 ft tide+surge, but the tide+surge was 14 ft.