Last Year a Snowstorm, This Year a Hurricane? Really?

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The discussion centers on the unusual weather patterns experienced around Halloween, with participants reflecting on last year's October snowstorm and the current threat of Hurricane Sandy, which is expected to transition into a Nor'easter. Concerns about safety and preparedness are prevalent, with individuals sharing personal experiences and advice on how to prepare for severe weather, including stocking up on supplies and securing homes against potential flooding and power outages. The conversation highlights the confusion surrounding the storm's classification as it shifts from a tropical cyclone to a winter storm, referred to as "Frankenstorm." Participants express anxiety about the storm's impact, particularly in urban areas like New York City, and discuss the unpredictability of weather patterns, emphasizing the importance of taking such threats seriously. The discussion also touches on the historical context of late-season hurricanes and the challenges of emergency preparedness in densely populated regions.
  • #31
Evo said:
Russ, are you in danger of flooding?
I was mostly just being dramatic last night. My house is on the side of a hill, situated in such a way as to have very little risk of flooding. I may have a couple of painful commutes on Monday and Tuesday, but beyond that, not too much to worry about besides power outages...And I have a generator.

My parents' house, on the other hand, will flood (the basement). They have a sump pump and a backup, so they should be set. I'll be over for brunch on Sunday and I'll check it out to make sure it is ready to go.

I do have some great creeks nearby that get pretty exciting when they flood. I may go take some pictures.
 
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  • #32
russ_watters said:
My house is on the side of a hill, situated in such a way as to have very little risk of flooding.

Side of a hill can still mean a landslide, especially during heavy rains.

Not that I wish you one, quite the opposite.
 
  • #33
russ_watters said:
Last year, on the weekend before Halloween, we had about 8 inches of snow. Snow! On Halloween! This year, a hurricane (hurricane??!) is threatening to drive up the coast,...

jtbell said:
Sandy now has a new unofficial name... [eerie music]... Frankenstorm!

Hence it sounds like a bit of a suggestion of being unique, a hurricane so late in the season. So I wondered how common late hurricanes are.

So Alice 1954 spawned 30 December. Kate 1932 formed on 30 October and could also be called a Frankenstorm? The oldest mentioning, I found, of an October Hurricane that made landfall was #5 in 1852, followed one year later later by Hurricane #8. There are many more.
 
  • #34
Andre said:
Hence it sounds like a bit of a suggestion of being unique, a hurricane so late in the season. So I wondered how common late hurricanes are.

I thought the "frankenstorm" monicker was in reference to the hurricane merging with a proper winter storm, rather than simply being late in the year.
 
  • #35
Hurkyl said:
I thought the "frankenstorm" monicker was in reference to the hurricane merging with a proper winter storm, rather than simply being late in the year.

Yes, that seems right.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=preepd&version=4&fmt=reg

Sorry for the caps in the quote, but that's the original.

...ONCE THE COMBINED GYRE MATERIALIZES, IT SHOULD SETTLE BACK TOWARD THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST THROUGH HALLOWEEN, INVITING PERHAPS A GHOULISH NICKNAME FOR THE CYCLONE ALONG THE LINES OF "FRANKENSTORM", AN ALLUSION TO MARY SHELLEY'S GOTHIC CREATURE OF SYNTHESIZED ELEMENTS.[sic]
 
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  • #36
Due to the Frankenstorm nature of Sandy, there will be a confusing flow of information as the storm transitions from a tropical storm to a nor'easter:
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) issues advisories, forecasts, and warnings on tropical
cyclones - the generic term for hurricanes, tropical storms, and tropical depressions. Sometime
prior to making landfall, Hurricane Sandy is expected to lose its characteristics as a tropical
cyclone and take on the structure of a wintertime low-pressure area. Because the National
Hurricane Center only issues advisories on tropical cyclones, there will be changes in the flow of
information coming out of the NWS when this transition occurs...

Because Sandy is expected to make this transition before reaching the coast, the NWS has
been using non-tropical wind watches and warnings, issued by local NWS Weather Forecast
Offices (WFOs), to communicate the wind threat posed by Sandy in the Mid-Atlantic States and
New England. (This is why NHC’s tropical storm warnings extend only into North Carolina.)
The NWS plans to continue using non-tropical watches and warnings issued by local offices in
the Mid-Atlantic States and northward throughout this event. By using non-tropical warnings in
these areas from the start, we avoid or minimize the significant confusion that could occur if the
warning suite changed from tropical to non-tropical in the middle of the event.
When NHC determines that Sandy has become post-tropical, NHC advisory products will cease.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

They say that by using non-tropical watches and warnings, issued by local offices, they will avoid confusion, but I don't agree. I had already been wondering why the advisories hadn't been extended above North Carolina and the only way to figure out why is by reading this PDF. Worse, if the transition prediction is mis-timed:
In the event Sandy remains a tropical cyclone through landfall, NHC advisories and products
would of course continue. There would be no transition, however, from non-tropical wind
warnings issued by the WFOs back to Tropical Storm or Hurricane Warnings issued by
NHC, since both sets of warnings describe the same wind hazard.
I'm not clear on what exactly that means, but it implies to me that even if Sandy makes landfall as a tropical storm, the NHC still won't be issuing watches/warnings.

This issue is too bad, IMO, because there is no concise tracking and informational source for just big storms. The NHC is an excellent resource -- I'm not sure what they do in the winter, but perhaps their responsibilities should be extended?
 
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  • #37
russ_watters said:
Due to the Frankenstorm nature of Sandy, there will be a confusing flow of information as the storm transitions from a tropical storm to a nor'easter: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/news/20121027_pa_sandyTransition.pdf

This is too bad, IMO, because there is no concise tracking and informational source for just big storms. The NHC is an excellent resource -- I'm not sure what they do in the winter, but perhaps their responsibilities should be extended?
I agree, one of the most devastating floods in the Houston, TX area was caused by a "tropical storm". No one paid much attention to it, heck, not a hurricane. Then people had to be rescued from the second floor windows of their homes by boats, if they were lucky enough to have a second floor.
 
  • #38
yahoo.com said:
"I can be as cynical as anyone," said Christie (NJ Governor Chris Christie), who declared a state of emergency Saturday. "But when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, you're going to wish you weren't as cynical as you otherwise might have been."
I'm not sure what he means, but I have no doubt he means something.
 
  • #39
Take care, Jimmy. You might be in the bullseye.
 
  • #40
turbo said:
Take care, Jimmy. You might be in the bullseye.
I am in the bullseye. I have water, imperishable food, flashlights, batteries, and a radio. My gas tank is full. I can be as safe as anyone, but when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, I'm not going to wish I wasn't as safe as I otherwise might have been.
 
  • #41
Russ and Jimmy are right in the track of the eye, and others are close to it as well. We're further away but on the north - northeast -eastside, so were expecting lots of rain and high wind. We're supposed to prepare for gusts up to 60 mph, or up to 75 mph in higher elevations.

This might be of interest.
http://hurricanes.noaa.gov/pdf/hurricanebook.pdf
 
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  • #42
Here are some before pictures.
Our police station. It got flooded out by Irene and only just recently opened again. The brown colored buildings on the left of the picture are on the other side of a river that you can't see.
33madrb.jpg


Another view of the police station.
ipmb04.jpg


The river. It overflowed its banks as a result of Irene.
5s9xu.jpg


The pond. During the cold war, it was disguised to look like a parking lot in order to fool the Ruskies. Irene blew our cover and anyone could easily see the true nature of this body of water.
2rzt3js.jpg
 
  • #43
I just got back from the store... ugh it was awful. So packed. Subway closes in a couple hours, then i'll be stuck in my 1bdrm apartment until the storm blows over. I'm not in an area that had to be evacuated, but I can see the Hudson from my window. Hopefully its not really as bad as they're saying though. But hey, at least classes were canceled for tomorrow.
 
  • #44
And now wall street will be closed tomorrow too. Crazy!
 
  • #45
Jimmy Snyder said:
I am in the bullseye. I have water, imperishable food, flashlights, batteries, and a radio. My gas tank is full. I can be as safe as anyone, but when the storm comes, if it's as bad as they're predicting, I'm not going to wish I wasn't as safe as I otherwise might have been.

No one is not going to wish they weren't as unsafe as they might not have been.
 
  • #46
Hmm. My mom was really freaking about this, but she always freaks out about weather. was planning on staying at her beach house, which is about four blocks from the beach. Maybe I should just go back to my apartment, which is further inland?
 
  • #47
Chi Meson said:
No one is not going to wish they weren't as unsafe as they might not have been.

Say what?
 
  • #48
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
 
  • #49
SHISHKABOB said:
Has anyone really been far even as decided to use even go want to do look more like?
Try again. That doesn't parse, at least not to me. I can't make heads or tails of what you typed.
 
  • #50
I hope this topic is not too serious to joke about.

The models have converged, all on Jimmy Snyder's locale.Best of luck, Jimmy. Stay safe.
 
  • #52
Predictions start to home on Turbo's home as well.
 
  • #53
Sandy had been heading northeast, but now has turned due north. I only just a few minutes ago got an explanation of why it is forecasted to continue turning northwest. There are two issues. First, the jet stream dips south of Sandy coming from the west and then turns north itself, east of Sandy. Thus the shape of the jet stream is a bobby pin with Sandy pinched between the tongs. Second, there is a high pressure system to the northeast of Sandy that will prevent it from heading in that direction. Although we are going to get inundated with enough rain to cause flooding, the worst of it will be about 30 miles south of here. Right now there is a light rain and winds of about 20 - 25 mph.
 
  • #54
Easiest commute ever. This afternoon probably won't be.
 
  • #55
You might stay in a motel tonight.
 
  • #56
D H said:
Try again. That doesn't parse, at least not to me. I can't make heads or tails of what you typed.
Galteeth said:
http://knowyourmeme.com/memes/has-a...ided-to-use-even-go-want-to-do-look-more-like
Ah, so it's a more recent version of "All your base are belong to us."

russ_watters said:
Easiest commute ever. This afternoon probably won't be.
I'm surprised your workplace isn't closed today. Most up here in central NJ (including mine) are. Friday we were advised to take our laptops home, so we can still get some work done.
 
  • #57
Redbelly98 said:
I'm surprised your workplace isn't closed today. Most up here in central NJ (including mine) are.
My work site is shut down. Wind is whipping around pretty good. I suspect it will get worse.
 
  • #58
My office is in Plymout Meeting, northwest of the city, so roads are open. And I live another half hour nortwest, so I'll be driving away from the storm on the way home (and up!).

A client in RI emaied early this morning that the need a new study... by Wednesday. Suuuure.

About half of the office is in.
 
  • #59
My wife works in Plymouth Meeting too. She is staying home today.
 
  • #60
Jimmy Snyder said:
Sandy had been heading northeast, but now has turned due north. I only just a few minutes ago got an explanation of why it is forecasted to continue turning northwest. There are two issues. First, the jet stream dips south of Sandy coming from the west and then turns north itself, east of Sandy. Thus the shape of the jet stream is a bobby pin with Sandy pinched between the tongs. Second, there is a high pressure system to the northeast of Sandy that will prevent it from heading in that direction.
This evil combination of events is what makes this such a perfect storm, even more so than the perfect storm of 1991. At this time of year the jet stream over the continental US typically swings south and then back north, with that northward arm east of the coast. That was the situation in 1991 with it's perfect storm. That storm never made landfall.

The cold front that dipped into Texas and Florida late last week would normally have given you on the east coast your first taste of winter, and it would normally have pushed this hurricane off to the northeast, never to make landfall. Instead, that Canadian high off to the northeast is keeping the jet stream and that cold front from moving eastward. Just to give an idea of how crazily inverted things are, right now it is warmer in Boston (55°F) than it is in Jacksonville, Florida (50°F). Even Bangor, Maine and Halifax, Nova Scotia are warmer this morning than is Jacksonville.

The biggest uncertainty in the model predictions was exactly when and where the storm would make that predicted turn to the north and then northwest. The computer models have converged now that the storm has started that turn. Atlantic City appears to be in the crosshairs.

This is going to be rough on Philadelphia, but not near as rough as a landfall on the Delmarva would have been. That would have sent a very nasty tidal surge up the funnel-shaped Delaware Bay. It's also going to be rough on NYC, but not near as rough as a landfall a bit further north would have been. That would have sent a very nasty tidal surge across Long Island Sound. That's still going to happen, but not quite as bad as it could have been.
 

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