Maximum Sustainable Earth Population

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SUMMARY

The maximum sustainable population of Earth is estimated to be between 1 billion, according to James Lovelock, and 1-2 billion as stated by the head of the Geoengineering department at Bristol. These figures are contingent upon defining "sustainable" as maintaining no net effect on world resources indefinitely, utilizing current technology. The discussion emphasizes the limitations of predicting carrying capacity due to factors such as technological advancements in food production and energy sources. It concludes that without significant changes in resource management and energy production, sustainability at higher population levels is unattainable.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of ecological sustainability concepts
  • Familiarity with biomass and life cycle analysis
  • Knowledge of petrochemical fertilizers and their role in agriculture
  • Awareness of renewable energy sources such as solar, wind, and tidal energy
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the implications of James Lovelock's theories on ecological sustainability
  • Explore advancements in agricultural technology that enhance food production without petrochemical inputs
  • Investigate the potential of renewable energy sources to support sustainable living
  • Examine the socio-economic impacts of population growth on resource management
USEFUL FOR

Environmental scientists, policymakers, sustainability advocates, and anyone interested in the intersection of population dynamics and resource management.

  • #31
"Dug" , two posts above, gets it.

I recommend reading "Life's Bottleneck " by Isaac Asimov.
 
Earth sciences news on Phys.org
  • #32
To put it in simple terms, we eat oil!
Without the benefits of the high energy density hydrocarbon fuels provide,
many people will starve.
The problem is energy storage, We could make enough photovoltaic panels to
achieve the energy currently used, and much more,
but the energy is not where, when, and in the physical form it needs to be into be utilized.
Storing the energy as hydrocarbons, allows a path forward for humanity,
and buys us time to find other alternatives.
http://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/2012/fueling-the-fleet-navy-looks-to-the-seas
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/det...ower-to-gas-facility_100011859/#axzz2uvraLciF
The US Navy and Audi, are developing technology from Fraunhofer University,
to store gathered energy as hydrocarbon fuel.
http://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2010/04/green-electricity-storage-gas.html
Once stored, the fuel can be distributed as needed through the existing infrastructure.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #33
Isaac Asimov wrote about 1949:
... Asimov "One billion well-fed, creative human beings arc a far happier and worthwhile load for our good planet than six billion starving, half-mad wretches.

Since then genetic modified crops and a booming phosphate industry have enabled feeding us all.

That Navy article is really something, johnbbalm !
 
  • #34
qraal said:
Doing away with the middleman entirely, powering humans directly via sunlight with 100% efficiency then the sustainable limit is ~1.22 quadrillion people.
Evo said:
Post the peer reviewed scientific study that shows that food, clean water, suitable housing, waste control, schooling, jobs, medical care and transportation could be physically and economically viable to sustain that many people.
This is getting absolutely ridiculous.
I must say I'm kind of stunned by this moderator response. Finding upper or lower bounds in a discussion like this, even ridiculous ones, assists in directing the community's investigation.
In this case, the point is that it is "ridiculous" to attempt to address the OP without setting some restrictions on "maximum sustainable population". From an engineering point of view "maximum sustainable population" is not a sufficient statement of the requirements. We have a "dream" of what would be a valuable society and what would be a only a bizarre science experiment. One way of furthering this conversation (and driving it to greater productivity) would be to try to explicitly identify what those requirements might be. Without doing that, it would be difficult to determine whether a particular scientific study even addressed an issue pertinent to the OP.
 

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