Maximum Sustainable Earth Population

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Discussion Overview

The discussion centers on estimates of the maximum sustainable population of Earth, exploring various perspectives on sustainability, technological advancements, and the implications of resource use. Participants share differing views on the definitions and calculations of sustainability, as well as the impact of human development on population capacity.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants cite figures for maximum sustainable population ranging from 1 billion to 2 billion, referencing experts like James Lovelock and a head of the Geoengineering department at Bristol.
  • There is a call for a clear definition of "sustainable," with one participant suggesting it refers to a lifestyle that has no net effect on world resources and can be maintained indefinitely with current technology.
  • One participant argues that predicting Earth's carrying capacity is challenging due to potential future enhancements in human physiology and technology, suggesting that societal structures could evolve to support a much larger population.
  • Another participant emphasizes the importance of defining sustainability and mentions that calculations based on biomass and life cycle analysis could provide rough estimates, but acknowledges the complexity of human reliance on non-natural systems.
  • Concerns are raised about the finite nature of resources such as petro-chemical fertilizers and the implications for food production, suggesting that the maximum sustainable population may have been reached before the industrial revolution.
  • One participant highlights the lag time required for resource regeneration and expresses skepticism about achieving maximum sustainability due to the eventual depletion of useful energy on Earth.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants do not reach a consensus on the maximum sustainable population or the definitions of sustainability. Multiple competing views and uncertainties remain regarding the implications of technological advancements and resource limitations.

Contextual Notes

Discussions include assumptions about future technological developments, the impact of human activity on natural systems, and the reliance on finite resources for food production. The complexity of defining sustainability and its implications for population estimates is also noted.

  • #31
"Dug" , two posts above, gets it.

I recommend reading "Life's Bottleneck " by Isaac Asimov.
 
Earth sciences news on Phys.org
  • #32
To put it in simple terms, we eat oil!
Without the benefits of the high energy density hydrocarbon fuels provide,
many people will starve.
The problem is energy storage, We could make enough photovoltaic panels to
achieve the energy currently used, and much more,
but the energy is not where, when, and in the physical form it needs to be into be utilized.
Storing the energy as hydrocarbons, allows a path forward for humanity,
and buys us time to find other alternatives.
http://www.nrl.navy.mil/media/news-releases/2012/fueling-the-fleet-navy-looks-to-the-seas
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/det...ower-to-gas-facility_100011859/#axzz2uvraLciF
The US Navy and Audi, are developing technology from Fraunhofer University,
to store gathered energy as hydrocarbon fuel.
http://www.fraunhofer.de/en/press/research-news/2010/04/green-electricity-storage-gas.html
Once stored, the fuel can be distributed as needed through the existing infrastructure.
 
Last edited by a moderator:
  • #33
Isaac Asimov wrote about 1949:
... Asimov "One billion well-fed, creative human beings arc a far happier and worthwhile load for our good planet than six billion starving, half-mad wretches.

Since then genetic modified crops and a booming phosphate industry have enabled feeding us all.

That Navy article is really something, johnbbalm !
 
  • #34
qraal said:
Doing away with the middleman entirely, powering humans directly via sunlight with 100% efficiency then the sustainable limit is ~1.22 quadrillion people.
Evo said:
Post the peer reviewed scientific study that shows that food, clean water, suitable housing, waste control, schooling, jobs, medical care and transportation could be physically and economically viable to sustain that many people.
This is getting absolutely ridiculous.
I must say I'm kind of stunned by this moderator response. Finding upper or lower bounds in a discussion like this, even ridiculous ones, assists in directing the community's investigation.
In this case, the point is that it is "ridiculous" to attempt to address the OP without setting some restrictions on "maximum sustainable population". From an engineering point of view "maximum sustainable population" is not a sufficient statement of the requirements. We have a "dream" of what would be a valuable society and what would be a only a bizarre science experiment. One way of furthering this conversation (and driving it to greater productivity) would be to try to explicitly identify what those requirements might be. Without doing that, it would be difficult to determine whether a particular scientific study even addressed an issue pertinent to the OP.
 

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