Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[DennisN]

This morning Monday 21 Mar 2022 Reuters updated articles on NATO defenses against invasion.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...raine-nato-looks-its-weakest-link-2022-03-21/

Interesting read.

Sweden recently got a friendly visit by a US ship after a pre-planned (as far as I know) joint naval exercise.

Regarding Germany, I don't know their current military capabilities (as I am normally not very interested in military things). But I know that Germany is an economic powerhouse which should not be underestimated in the long run.

Same thing with the UK (that is, I don't know their current military capabilities). The UK Royal Navy was once (and for a long time) legendary, but I don't know the current status. I think the UK Royal Navy has been down-sized over the years.

 

[Frabjous]

Regarding Germany, I don't know their current military capabilities (as I am normally not very interested in military things). But I know that Germany is an economic powerhouse which should not be underestimated in the long run.

Even if Putin’s invasion of Ukraine turns out to be a victory for him, I am unsure if Russian history books will be kind to him in the event that Germany continues on its current rearmament path that he put them upon.

 

[fresh_42]

Regarding Germany, I don't know their current military capabilities (as I am normally not very interested in military things).

So are Germans. The military wasn't a top priority in the last decades. There simply haven't been any threats and the last thing we want is to get involved in another war. The budgets have been accordingly. Germans in Alsace? Sure. For dinner! Germans in Poland? The weekend bazaars are legendary. And do not forget to fuel your car. Danes in Germany? No problem. Allow Danish as an official language, give them a political voice and everything is fine. Former territories? Who cares? You can visit them or even live there whenever you want. No need for military "solutions".

It works astonishingly well if you visit people unarmed. It is so much better. Just let people live their lives and establish tourism!

It is a shame that one or two nutcases can change these agreements so easily.

 

[artis]

So are Germans. The military wasn't a top priority in the last decades. There simply haven't been any threats and the last thing we want is to get involved in another war. The budgets have been accordingly. Germans in Alsace? Sure. For dinner! Germans in Poland? The weekend bazaars are legendary. And do not forget to fuel your car. Danes in Germany? No problem. Allow Danish as an official language, give them a political voice and everything is fine. Former territories? Who cares? You can visit them or even live there whenever you want. No need for military "solutions".

It works astonishingly well if you visit people unarmed. It is so much better. Just let people live their lives and establish tourism!

It is a shame that one or two nutcases can change these agreements so easily.

Sorry if I misunderstand you but are you hinting that Germany having a larger, stronger military could be somehow detrimental to Germany itself?
It seems to me that European union getting more armed and ready for any outside danger is not a bad thing as long as we keep the same level of openness within EU itself

 

[Astronuc]

Sorry if I misunderstand you but are you hinting that Germany having a larger, stronger military could be somehow detrimental to Germany itself?

I don't believe that is the point. However, there is an economic cost associated with maintaining armed forces (army, navy and air force), as well as some nervousness on the part of neighboring nations given the history of the last century.

t seems to me that European union getting more armed and ready for any outside danger is not a bad thing as long as we keep the same level of openness within EU itself

Well, in theory, the EU and UN were about mitigating the threat of what just happened in Ukraine. I'd have to say, it's not working.

One may consider the rise of far-right (authoritarian) and nationalist movements in various countries. Some populists would like to have and exert more control over national populations and populations of other nations/regions.

 

[fresh_42]

Sorry if I misunderstand you but are you hinting that Germany having a larger, stronger military could be somehow detrimental to Germany itself?
It seems to me that European union getting more armed and ready for any outside danger is not a bad thing as long as we keep the same level of openness within EU itself

What do you mean by detrimental? Military budgets are wasted money. There are cheaper and better solutions than any military conflict. We should focus on those paths rather than arms. E.g. Ukraine and Russia could have been perfect neighbors, regardless of whether Ukraine is in the EU or even NATO. So what?

Thinking in military setups might historically be justified, however, it is not reasonable and I think mankind should try to overcome it. Europe was on a good way before Putin remembered that he is an educated Stalinist and Crimea desired territory for Russia since 1853.

I advocate visits, student exchange programs, and tourism whenever it is possible. People who know each other are less likely to fight against each other. Russia is obviously our enemy now, but it is impossible for me personally to consider Russians as enemies.

 

[Frabjous]

it is impossible for me personally to consider Russians as enemies.

Speaking in general, the longer the separation, the easier it is for them to become the “other,” and this time there is less respect on both sides.

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine and Russia could have been perfect neighbors, regardless of whether Ukraine is in the EU or even NATO. So what?

Certainly, Ukraine was on its way to being a good, if not perfect neighbor, and certainly many Russians visit the EU regular, and some prefer to remain in EU.

However, rather than being a "democracy that failed, Russia is an authoritarian militaristic state that is succeeding," to paraphrase a line from the 2015 documentary on Putin and Russia.I have heard news in the last two days, that 80% of housing in Mariupol has been destroyed, and many civilians have been 'removed' by the Russian forces. Now Putin wants the Donbas and the region of Ukraine along the coast to Crimea, which has been a concerned since 2014. It would appear that if he can't take all of Ukraine, he will try to take Eastern Ukraine, east of Dnipro River, and install a Russian-friendly government in Kyiv. The rest of Ukraine will be under constant threat until Russia takes all of it - if Putin is allowed.

 

[phinds]

On another tack altogether, I would call for a meeting between the respective First Ladies of Ukraine and Russia - albeit former First Lady in the case of Mr Putin. Surely good sense and shared family values can prevail against the current lunacy ?!

You actually believe that Putin would listen to his ex-wife? What optimism. Totally unfounded in my opinion.

 

[pinball1970]

Same thing with the UK (that is, I don't know their current military capabilities). The UK Royal Navy was once (and for a long time) legendary, but I don't know the current status. I think the UK Royal Navy has been down-sized over the years.

The UK has 217,000 members of the armed forces and we have a lot of kit (I read so far on wiki and stopped, I don’t know the terms/capability)

A lot less than many countries but equipment and tech support/intelligence I imagine would be high in terms of global capability.

Take aways are we have 200 fighter jets, some of which have probably had their March 2022 decommissioning put on hold.

About 12 subs 6 of which have nuclear capability each carrying up to 40 warheads (I understand that part)

Depressing stuff, if we have to use any of that we have probably already passed the point of no return.

 

[Astronuc]

Ukraine rejects Russian demand to surrender Mariupol; Kyiv shopping center destroyed: Live updates​

https://news.yahoo.com/russias-war-displaced-10m-ukrainians-070424245.html

So the Russian forces are targeting civilians.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has displaced one quarter of the Ukrainian population (~11 million people).Meanwhile, a sliver of hope in Russia.
https://news.yahoo.com/marina-ovsyannikova-protest-152226063.html

Russian journalist Marina Ovsyannikova's decision to publicly protest against her country's invasion of Ukraine didn't come easy, she recalled in an ABC News interview released Sunday.

"As soon as the war began, I could not eat. I could not sleep," Ovsyannikova said in Russian, according to ABC's translation.

Ovsyannikova, an employee of the state-run Channel One, said she contemplated going to a street protest against the war, but the prospect of spending years in jail convinced her to make a more public statement.

 

[fresh_42]

Speaking in general, the longer the separation, the easier it is for them to become the “other,” and this time there is less respect on both sides.

I think it is far more a cultural thing. Islamic (young and male, Muslim) terrorists freak me out, but not Russian babushkas (old and female, Christian).

 

[Frabjous]

I think it is far more a cultural thing. Islamic (young and male, Muslim) terrorists freak me out, but not Russian babushkas (old and female, Christian).

You are making my point. Right now you see Russian babushkas, but as the invasion continues, you will begin to see blood-stained Russian soldiers and police.

 

[DennisN]

David Beckham (famous English football/soccer player) helps out:

David Beckham hands Instagram account to Ukrainian doctor (BBC, 21st March 2022)

Former England captain David Beckham handed control of his Instagram account to a Ukrainian doctor in the city of Kharkiv on Sunday.

[...]

Beckham, 46, has more than 71 million followers on Instagram.

The former Manchester United and Real Madrid star said he wanted to highlight the "amazing work Iryna and health workers like her are doing to save lives in Ukraine".

[...]

[...]

Beckham also encouraged his followers to donate to Unicef, a UN aid agency for which he serves as an ambassador.

He and wife Victoria, who was a singer with the Spice Girls, are reported to have donated £1million to help fund the organisation's work in Ukraine.

I tip my hat to Beckham and Victoria. A very nice move.

 

[artis]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/20/europe/russia-ukraine-junkyard-weapons-intl-hnk/index.html

 

[neilparker62]

You actually believe that Putin would listen to his ex-wife? What optimism. Totally unfounded in my opinion.

Somebody needs to tell him he's lost the plot! Who better ?!

 

[Borg]

Somebody needs to tell him he's lost the plot! Who better ?!

An FSB hit squad?

 

[DennisN]

Edit: Btw, I've just read reports on Twitter of many explosions heard in south Belarus. I'm keeping an eye on what that is about.

I did try to follow up on these reports, but I did not post about it here. There were several different rumors/stories about what this was about, mainly (1) military exercises by Belarus, (2) sonic booms from Russian jets flying there, (3) sabotage actions by (pro-Ukrainian) Belarus resistance and (4) possible preparations for a coup attempt in Belarus (!).

It seems to me it's still not clear what exactly was going on (which is quite understandable). I haven't seen any verified accounts of the events.

I've also heard about some alleged sabotage/interference with the railway (and other transportation) in Belarus. It's unclear to me (1) if it has happened and (2) by whom, so I decided to not link to where I read it.

 

[Astronuc]

Reuters - Russia may not stop with Ukraine – NATO looks to its weakest link
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...raine-nato-looks-its-weakest-link-2022-03-21/

ON BOARD THE SUPPLY SHIP ELBE, Latvia (Reuters) - Hours after Russian missiles first struck Ukrainian cities on Feb. 24, German naval commander Terje Schmitt-Eliassen received notice to sail five warships under his command to the former Soviet Republic of Latvia to help protect the most vulnerable part of NATO's eastern flank.

Same story reported on Yahoo. https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-may-not-stop-ukraine-100921388.html

The concern/move is not alarmist, but rather prudent. What will happen with Kaliningrad?

Ukraine should prepare for naval assault and amphibious landing at Odessa.

The US and EU need to support a no-fly zone over Ukraine, if not directly, by providing material support to Ukraine - before it's too late.

 

[neilparker62]

An FSB hit squad?

From https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2022/02/ukraine-crisis-putin-military-opposition.html - a link which I also posted in #1022.

The most eyebrow-raising of these dissents is an open letter by retired Col. Gen. Leonid Ivashov posted on the website of the All-Russian Officers’ Assembly, which he chairs. In it, he rejects Putin’s claim that NATO poses a threat to Russia’s vital interests, warns that invading Ukraine “will forever make Russians and Ukrainians mortal enemies,” and calls on Putin to step down. He concludes, “We, Russia’s officers, demand that the President of the Russian Federation reject the criminal policy of provoking a war in which Russia would find itself alone against the united forces of the West.”

 

[artis]

Another one of those Ukrainian "go home, F you" marches

 

[wrobel]

've also heard about some alleged sabotage/interference with the railway (and other transportation) in Belarus

My grandmother's husband and her two brothers died organizing "sabotage/interference with the railway (and other transportation) in Belarus" it was about 1942. Hope the present lap is the last.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Heim_ins_Reich
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Munich_Agreement

The rest started on 9/1/39. We leap exactly 83 years and 5 months.

 

[artis]

@wrobel based on your information from within, is it accurate that there are sugar shortages in Russia malls?
PS. sorry for the other non related video twitter just adds them both

 

[wrobel]

based on your information from within, is it accurate that there are sugar shortages in Russia malls?

in Moscow -- yes

 

[fresh_42]

Here it is cooking oil.

Flour, oil, sugar are always the first products people store. It's not the first time that I got the impression that people's most concern is apparently whether they still can bake their Sunday afternoon cake.

 

[DennisN]

I've also heard about some alleged sabotage/interference with the railway (and other transportation) in Belarus. It's unclear to me (1) if it has happened and (2) by whom, so I decided to not link to where I read it.

I've actually found a news article about it:

Russian troops cut off in devastating blow to Putin - major railway supply lines sabotaged (Daily Express, 21st March 2022)
https://www.express.co.uk/news/worl...y-sabotage-supply-lines-trains-latest-news-vn

(I follow a Swedish blog which gets continually updated about the war in Ukraine, and I also read the comments where various things gets posted by readers of the blog, and I got the article link from there.)

 

[Astronuc]

Marina Ovsyannikova, the Russian state TV employee who protested the war in Ukraine during a live news broadcast on TV One, has been labeled a British spy by the Russian government and state media. Of course, she's not.Edit: Meanwhile, Reuters reports "U.S. fighters say they felt calling to join Ukraine's cause"
https://news.yahoo.com/u-fighters-felt-calling-join-211001187.html

AP News - 20 days in Mariupol: The team that documented city’s agony

MARIUPOL, Ukraine (AP) — The Russians were hunting us down. They had a list of names, including ours, and they were closing in.

We were the only international journalists left in the Ukrainian city, and we had been documenting its siege by Russian troops for more than two weeks. We were reporting inside the hospital when gunmen began stalking the corridors. Surgeons gave us white scrubs to wear as camouflage.

https://news.yahoo.com/witnessed-mariupols-agony-fled-russian-100217753.html

 

[fresh_42]

They labeled Facebook and Instagram "extremist", Ukrainians "Nazi", and their war a "peace operation".

It is one of the constants in any dictatorship so far, that they accused others by what they essentially have been guilty themselves!

 

[Astronuc]

It is one of the constants in any dictatorship so far, that they accused others by what they essentially have been guilty themselves!

Putin is definitely channeling Hitler and Goebbels.

 

[fresh_42]

Putin is definitely channeling Hitler and Goebbels.

Indeed.

 

[DennisN]

It is one of the constants in any dictatorship so far, that they accused others by what they essentially have been guilty themselves!

I've thought a lot about that during this war on several occasions.

It's almost like we are experiencing psychological projection on a grand scale ("subconscious" or deliberate by the aggressor, or somewhere in between, perhaps, I don't know). Very weird.

 

[artis]

Somebody posted this on twitter, kinda made me think.
You know I think it's the same as with individuals VS large corporations, if you do something wrong as an individual the police and all kinds of agencies almost immediately stop you, but if you do something wrong as a large corporation you are very hard to stop and when it is done finally in many cases you get that "off ramp" that we are talking about for Putin...
So there is safety in "numbers" as they say , especially if you can hide behind them

 

[wrobel]

Soviet TV propaganda had never gone down till the level of contemporary Russian TV.
In USSR they said: American imperialists are bad guys but ordinary american people are good. Contemporary propaganda translates pure hate. I feel ill after 5 minutes watching TV.

 

[DennisN]

So there is safety in "numbers" as they say , especially if you can hide behind them

Well, I think it should not be forgotten that the guy on the right also has a lot more military capabilities (including a substantial nuclear arsenal) at his disposal, compared to what the guy on the left had.

 

[artis]

Well, I think it should not be forgotten that the guy on the right also has a lot more military capabilities (including a substantial nuclear arsenal) at his disposal.

Yes Putins army both personal and Russian official sure does give him almost endless immunity, but I think it is true in the general sense even without nuclear weapons, that it is much harder to bring judgement to a leader of a huge organization or country than it is to do to a smaller group or an individual.

If Bin Laden was say the head of North Korea rather than a radical hiding in a house somewhere in Pakistan he too would be harder to eliminate. Kadafi organized terrorist attacks on foreign soil and it took much longer to rid him, Saudi Arabia is known to have done some dirty stuff and they almost fly under the radar because their an ally of US, so it's not exactly that there is always justice elsewhere not just with respect to Russia-Ukraine.

 

[fresh_42]

Well, I think it should not be forgotten that the guy on the right also has a lot more military capabilities (including a substantial nuclear arsenal) at his disposal, compared to what the guy on the left had.

Plus the fact, that the mean distance between Putin and even his faithful dog is meanwhile 10 meters and counting.

The other guy lived in a dirt hole at the end of the world, not in a military compound surrounded by 20,000,000 people.

 

[artis]

Meanwhile it seems someone slipped some numbers, either accidentally or on purpose.
Russian tabloid for a brief moment had this, this figure of nearly 10k dead sounds like a realistic number given the huge bloodshed that has happened so far on both sides

 

[DennisN]

Yes Putins army both personal and Russian official sure does give him almost endless immunity, but I think it is true in the general sense even without nuclear weapons, that it is much harder to bring judgement to a leader of a huge organization or country than it is to do to a smaller group or an individual.

If Bin Laden was say the head of North Korea instead of a radical hiding in a house somewhere in Pakistan he too would be harder to eliminate.

I agree. Also, I would say that the risk of various political consequences (etc) for eliminating leaders of countries goes up significantly compared to eliminating terrorist leaders/terrorist groups.

For instance the assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand in 1914 (though not a leader, but an heir
to the Austro-Hungarian throne) sparked various tragic events that led to World War I.

 

[Rive]

someone slipped some numbers

Another one, on 'who knows' level:

However, the numbers seems to fit without the paramilitary/mercenary unit losses: around 10000 soldiers, and some more.
It would mean that Ukraine did the count exceptionally well.
Also, together with some 'assumed number of wounded' out of the picture it could imply that the original ~ 190k troops are actually can be on the verge of collapse.

 

[fresh_42]

... the risk of various political consequences (etc) for eliminating leaders ...

Sounds easier than it actually is. Hitler survived two serious assassination attempts by pure luck. And Putin with his paranoia is far more cautious.

 

[Jarvis323]

Ukraine’s ”sin” was seeking stronger relations with the West. Even if it had followed your suggestions, Putin would have found another excuse.

Maybe these are factors which contributed.

What happened in Ukraine that led directly to this war is the following in my current understanding:

(1) A Russia backed politician won the Ukraine presidency through what Ukraine's supreme court ruled to be a fraudulent election.

(2) His competitor was installed as the president after Russia's guy was ousted. He was poisoned, but he survived.

(3) Russia labeled the ousting as a coup, and used propaganda to help them respond by fueling and funding an insurrection, which took hold the eastern more Russian speaking territories.

(4) In the rest of Ukraine, anti-Russian sentiment was reinforced in response through media and policies.

(5) Zelensky was elected in what many Ukrainians consider to be their first ever truly democratically elected president. His platform was neither anti-Russian, nor pro-Russian, just anti-corruption.

(6) Russia's interest in Ukraine is largely to have control industries in Ukraine.

Putin became fed up with trying so many other tactics to gain control. So he just decided to invade.

 

[phinds]

Putin is definitely channeling Hitler and Goebbels.

And Orwell.

 

[phinds]

(6) Russia's interest in Ukraine is largely to have control industries in Ukraine.

I think that's wrong. That might be a distant third reason but the two main reasons are (1) to have a buffer between Russia proper and NATO and (2) to capture all of the gas and oil reserves that belong to Ukraine (they are massive).

 

[fresh_42]

And Orwell.

Not really. There have been many despots better than Putin. Animal Farm described communism, and 1984 a surveillance society. Both have been practiced by actual communistic regimes better than Putin is able to control private communications nowadays. E.g. WhatsApp is still online.

 

[Astronuc]

I think that's wrong. That might be a distant third reason but the two main reasons are (1) to have a buffer between Russia proper and NATO and (2) to capture all of the gas and oil reserves that belong to Ukraine (they are massive).

Well, the oil/gas industry is one of many, but clearly, capture of ALL Ukrainian industry and resources, is a huge incentive, and control of trade and transportation, and huge agricultural. A second, and perhaps equally important goal is to prevent Ukraine from becoming part of EU/NATO, after which the goal of controlling Ukraine is no go. A third goal is to prevent Ukraine from being a successful and thriving democracy and open society, something that is anathema to Putin and his corrupt cohorts. Imagine how many young Russians would leave Russia for Ukraine, if Ukraine was a free and open society.

And Putin is simply a paranoid, delusional narcissistic psychopath, with plenty of enablers.

 

[phinds]

Not really. There have been many despots better than Putin.

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

 

[fresh_42]

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

Sounds familiar?

 

[Bystander]

I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.

Sounds familiar?

A politician?

 

[fresh_42]

A politician?

I know several examples. One was Hitler but I hesitate to call him a politician. Or Ulbricht: "Nobody has the intention to build a wall!" Putin is just an extreme example.

 

[fresh_42]

Or Ulbricht [GDR]: "Nobody has the intention to build a wall!" [A week before he actually built the wall in Berlin.]

Just heard on tv:

French authorities have seized the yacht (€ 530,000,000) of the owner of Rosneft as it was preparing to leave the harbor.

A German yacht spotter observed that Putin's yacht had left its German dockyard although work wasn't finished two weeks prior to the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Honni soit qui mal y pense.