Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

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The discussion centers on the complexities and potential consequences of the ongoing tensions in Ukraine, drawing parallels to historical conflicts. Participants express concerns about the motivations behind Putin's actions, suggesting he aims to expand Russian influence and possibly recreate aspects of the Soviet Union. The effectiveness of Western sanctions is debated, with skepticism about their impact on halting Russian aggression. There are fears that if the West does not respond decisively, the situation could escalate beyond Ukraine, potentially affecting other regions like Taiwan. Overall, the conversation highlights the precarious nature of international relations and the risks of underestimating authoritarian ambitions.
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'It's coming' - US warns of Russian cyberattacks amid Ukraine war​


US President Joe Biden on Monday urged US companies to make sure their digital doors are locked tight because of “evolving intelligence” that Russia is considering launching cyberattacks against critical infrastructure targets as the war in Ukraine continues.

Addressing corporate CEOs at their quarterly meeting, Biden told the business leaders they have a “patriotic obligation” to harden their systems against such attacks. He said federal assistance is available, should they want it, but that the decision is theirs alone.

Biden said the administration has issued “new warnings that, based on evolving intelligence, Russia may be planning a cyberattack against us. ... The magnitude of Russia's cyber capacity is fairly consequential, and it's coming."

The president said the federal government is “doing its part” to prepare for an attack and warned the private-sector CEOs that it also is in the national interest that they do the same.

“I would respectfully suggest it’s a patriotic obligation for you to invest as much as you can” in technology to counter cyberattacks, Biden told members of the Business Roundtable. “We’re prepared to help you, as I said, with any tools and expertise we possess, if you’re ready to do that. But it’s your decision as to the steps you’ll take and your responsibility to take them, not ours.”

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/30054...arns-of-russian-cyberattacks-amid-ukraine-war
 
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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy reveals 'compromise' he might accept to end invasion​


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revealed a "compromise" that could end the war with Russia, which has now been dragging on for almost a month.

Speaking to his nation's public broadcaster Suspilne today, Zelenskyy suggested Ukraine could live with not seeking Nato membership.

"Nato should either say now that they are accepting us, or openly say they are not accepting us because they are afraid of Russia. Which is true," he argued.

"And then we need to calm down and say OK, there are Nato member countries that can provide us security guarantees without membership in Nato.

"That is where the compromise exists. That's where the end of the war is."

-- https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ru...t-to-end-invasion/N5BVET3SP5D6TGR2TGYDRRZIK4/
 
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Wow, I just saw a stunning clip from a short interview from 2019 with the Ukrainian Oleksiy Arestovych, apparently before Zelenskyy became elected president of Ukraine.
(I saw it referenced in another video I was looking at).

Mindboggingly accurate prediction. Is/was he just incredibly talented or did he use some ancient magic spell of foresight, one wonders... :)

Oleksiy Arestovych and his prediction of Russian aggression (2019)


(the original, longer interview is here, but without subtitles)
 
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fresh_42 said:
Just heard on tv:
...
Honni soit qui mal y pense.
Google xlate yields: Shame on anyone who thinks wrong.

Psychology Today says this is meant to humiliate an absolute narcissist. Presumably, sociopaths do not feel shame. Normal people should be proud of our human fallibility.
 
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phinds said:
I was referring to his calling things the opposite of what they are and accusing his enemies of doing what he does.
1984 was about a global order involving three competing totalitarian powers who were in perpetual war against each other. To reach that scenario would need Russia to overrun all of Europe, the US to be taken over by a right-wing coup, say, and China to make up the third. That said, we have potentially more than three with the Islamic world on the one hand, and India transforming into a Hindu dictatorship.

Whether perpertual war is needed or not, that would be the end of personal liberty and all of humanity would live under a dictatorship of one sort or another.

And government of the people, for the people, by the people will have perished from the Earth.
 
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DennisN said:
Wow, I just saw a stunning clip from a short interview from 2019 with the Ukrainian Oleksiy Arestovych, apparently before Zelenskyy became elected president of Ukraine.
(I saw it referenced in another video I was looking at).

Mindboggingly accurate prediction. Is/was he just incredibly talented or did he use some ancient magic spell of foresight, one wonders... :)

Oleksiy Arestovych and his prediction of Russian aggression (2019)


(the original, longer interview is here, but without subtitles)

I hate to break it to you, but even seeing the full video some weeks ago when all of this started and videos like that were suddenly jumping up through the algorithms in youtube, it wasn't that big of a surprise here.
The west I believe refused to believe mostly that anything like this would happen till the last moment , here on the other hands most of our local experts and civilians alike (those that follow Russia more closely) knew this was imminent.
The simple reason is this, there was no way Kremlin would have allowed the "fall" of Ukraine into EU or NATO.
Zelensky pre war was basically doing just that , constantly going to places and asking when they will take them into NATO etc.
Then when the Russians started their army "training" near the border people started packing their 72h bags, why? Because the previous military drills "zapad"happened in late summer, this time they started moving in troops around Xmas, packed them up right through New year and then finally moved in in February, probably would have sooner but it seems Xi Jinping kindly asked to not destroy his TV time during the Olympics.

See here for example
https://edition.cnn.com/2021/12/31/politics/biden-volodymyr-zelensky-call-ukraine/index.html

I think Putin was rather open about his plans before invasion,

https://www.timesofisrael.com/ukrai...elensky-biden-told-him-to-prepare-for-impact/

senior Ukrainian official as saying that Zelensky received dire warnings from Biden that a Russian invasion of Ukraine is now “virtually certain” once the ground freezes and that Kyiv needs to “prepare for impact.”
 
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I read this comment on a youtube video:

"
– How do you build a small army?
– Start with a large one and invade Ukraine.
"
 
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Well speaking in stock exchange terminology it seems to me that Russia thought Ukraine to be on it's "way out" and decided to "short sell" it, most of the world also didn't think much of Ukraine's stock.
Then Ukrainians took matters in their own hands and "short squeezed" their stock causing a cascade of everyone else updating Ukraine's value in their eyes.

Now Ukraine might turn into Kremlin's "GameStop"...
 
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fresh_42 said:
Plus the fact, that the mean distance between Putin and even his faithful dog is meanwhile 10 meters and counting.View attachment 298738The other guy lived in a dirt hole at the end of the world, not in a military compound surrounded by 20,000,000 people.
This is just for the show. Putin was very close, handshaking without any facemask the president of Argentina a few days before the invasion, just google Alberto fernandez putin. Granted that president was vaccinated by Sputnik and had gotten covid, it doesn't change the fact that the same treatment was not done with Macron like one or two days later, who was also vaccinated and had gotten Covid as well. Just for the show.
 
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fluidistic said:
This is just for the show. Putin was very close, handshaking without any facemask the president of Argentina a few days before the invasion, just google Alberto fernandez putin. Granted that president was vaccinated by Sputnik and had gotten covid, it doesn't change the fact that the same treatment was not done with Macron like one or two days later, who was also vaccinated and had gotten Covid as well. Just for the show.
Exactly, and Putin has probably the best medical care available that money and authority can buy so I too am skeptical of the idea that somehow Putin got so scared of Covid that his hiding in a bunker since early 2020.

What is also for show with him is how he has always been "late" to meetings with leaders he despises, I read on average they have waited on him for hours. Then he shows up with a huge hound to meet Merkel because he knows she is afraid of large dogs. etc the list goes on

I wouldn't be surprised if he showed up to a nuclear disarmament meeting with a original replica of the "Tsar bomb" being dragged along on a rolling frame by his staff
 
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A side-show to Ukraine, but if Russia controls Ukraine, it would put pressure on EU and global markets.

Fortune (March 21) - Fertilizer prices just hit a record high sparking fears of global starvation and the worst food insecurity level since World War II
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-prices-just-hit-record-174439996.html

Farmers worldwide are feeling the sting of sanctions, as the Ukraine War has sent fertilizer prices soaring to new all-time highs, prompting concerns over a global food shortage.

Fertilizer prices last week were nearly 10% higher than the week before according to Green Markets North America Fertilizer Price Index, the highest price point ever recorded. Prices are now 40% higher than a month ago, before the invasion of Ukraine.

The surge in fertilizer prices reveals how dependent many of the world's farms are on Russian exports. Countries already afflicted by food insecurity now risk further production bottlenecks and food shortages at the worst possible time.
 
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Astronuc said:
A side-show to Ukraine, but if Russia controls Ukraine, it would put pressure on EU and global markets.

Fortune (March 21) - Fertilizer prices just hit a record high sparking fears of global starvation and the worst food insecurity level since World War II
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/fertilizer-prices-just-hit-record-174439996.html
There is China to consider regarding Economic dependency also.

https://www.reuters.com/business/pressed-choose-sides-ukraine-china-trade-favors-west-2022-03-21/
 
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A geography lesson :smile::

Russia - Not Russia.jpg
 
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A keen plane spotter a friend of a friend as spotted extensive manoeuvres of fighter jets in the lake district…
Could be part of the normal yearly timetable or they could have added a few recently.

https://www.gov.uk/government/publi...flying-training-timetable-14-to-18-march-2022

USA is on DEFCOM level 3 apparently

UK threat level is “substantial” but that is relating to terror is my understanding, our war readiness is via R number, R0 being immediate readiness

Interesting article from November 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news...y-for-war-with-russia-says-armed-forces-chief
 
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Hyde pub Greater Manchester (now)
Image below. We get it, even us northerners.
There was a demo Manchester center too last Saturday. A Ukraine flag on the Queen Victoria statue. Manchester Ukrainian children. Stop the war.
You cannot fool all of the people all of the time. Whoever said that was not aware of Twitter YouTube and Instagram but I think his sentiment would be far stronger had he known.
 

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Just a stray thought. Belarus may be closer to a coup than Russia.
 
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Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
FN_D7yIXoAYlbF_?format=jpg&name=small.jpg


So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"
 
  • #1,422
Meanwhile in Russia TV, threats to level most of Europe if need be, with English subtitles
 
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artis said:
Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"
This reminds me of one of the first jokes told by Yakov Smirnoff, the Russian ** standup comic told when he first immigrated to America.

America is such a great country. You have American Express --- "Don't leave home without it."

In Russia, we have Russian Express
"Don't leave home."

**EDIT: He was actually from Ukraine but this was back before the wall fell and it was part of the Soviet Union
 
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artis said:
Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"
The Big Vlad: two rancid beef patties, special military operation sauce, some random junk on a bun with a sesame seed (1).

The meal deal: The Big Vlad, flies and diluted Vodka.
 
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bob012345 said:
The Big Vlad: two rancid beef patties, special military operation sauce, some random junk on a bun with a sesame seed
And to stay true to current Russian military logistics , the whole meal doesn't arrive in time, is missing some ingredients and if you dare to complain to the kitchen then you get 15 years in toilet.

Kremlin's opposition gets a separate menu, main item "Gulag" and it's free - "on the house"
Make Catherine the Great again...
 
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  • #1,427
artis said:
Amid McDonalds pulling out of Russia the Russians apparently will make their own "McDonalds", notice how "original" the logo is , it must have taken a long time to come up with it...or someone did not even try
https://www.cbc.ca/news/business/russia-mcdonald-s-logo-1.6389887
View attachment 298773

So here is how it seems to me

McDonalds - I'm lovin it
Kremlin McDonalds (McPutin) - You better love it!...

McDonalds famous "happy meal" now more like "sad meal"
I always asked myself what the prename of McDonald was. Now, we know. Although, Vania is quite uncommon in Scottland.
 
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berkeman said:
Oh my goodness, I just got an e-mail from the St. Jude Hospital organization (who I support annually) about their efforts in this terrible situation. Here is a link to the web version; I will likely send them an extra donation...

https://view.campaigns.stjude.org/?...fe7714b9c1745a67414b28f3a76802d56e3e6491cc540

View attachment 298778
I just (10 minutes ago) read in the news ticker of a news channel that Russians bomb particularly hospitals and doctors' offices. Barbaric. I hope Putin will end up in The Hague.

And it is not only the severely ill children. I have also seen a couple here who organized a shelter for some disabled Ukrainians. It's always the weakest who suffer first and most.
 
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fresh_42 said:
I just (10 minutes ago) read in the news ticker of a news channel that Russians bomb particularly hospitals and doctors' offices. Barbaric. I hope Putin will end up in The Hague.
How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?
 
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bob012345 said:
How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?
With nowadays weapons? 100% intentionally.
 
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bob012345 said:
How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?
Through my EMS training, I have some anti-terrorist training and yes, schools and hospitals are specifically targeted by terrorists. Possibly Putin's training in the KGB is part of his planning and approval of targets...
 
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One question that I wonder about is this, the Ukrainian forces surely have some capability to lob a conventional weapon into Russia but they don't. My though is they restrain because they do not want to give any justification to Putin for his actions and because they are fighting a defensive war on the moral high ground.
 
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bob012345 said:
One question that I wonder about is this, the Ukrainian forces surely have some capability to lob a conventional weapon into Russia but they don't. My though is they restrain because they do not want to give any justification to Putin for his actions and because they are fighting a defensive war on the moral high ground.
I'm not so sure. All missiles that has been leftover from USSR went probably to Russia together with the nuclear weapons. And they likely haven't thought about an attack from their former brothers, and certainly not from the west.
 
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bob012345 said:
According to this document, the U.S. made security agreements with Ukraine. Does the United States have the legal justification to intervene in Ukraine based on this even though Russia has trashed the treaty?

https://www.armscontrol.org/factsheets/Ukraine-Nuclear-Weapons

A.) All that document says is:
The countries promised to respect the sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine.
It says nothing about intervening on Ukraine's behalf in a dispute with someone else.
This is often being misunderstood. It would be good to read it before posting it as a poor rationalization for something.

B.) the US has all the legal justification do whatever it wants with respect to intervening in Ukraine.
Treaty permission is not required.
 
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BillTre said:
B.) the US has all the legal justification do whatever it wants with respect to intervening in Ukraine.
Treaty permission is not required.
Legality is irrelvant. What is RELEVANT is whether or not it will start WWIII and the consensus seems to be that it would.
 
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BillTre said:
A.) All that document says is:

It says nothing about intervening on Ukraine's behalf in a dispute with someone else.
This is often being misunderstood. It would be good to read it before posting it as a poor rationalization for something.

B.) the US has all the legal justification do whatever it wants with respect to intervening in Ukraine.
Treaty permission is not required.

This is what stood out to me when I read the document;

To solidify security commitments to Ukraine, the United States, Russia, and the United Kingdom signed the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances on December 5, 1994. A political agreement in accordance with the principles of the Helsinki Accords, the memorandum included security assurances against the threat or use of force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence.

Are you saying this only means that from the U.S. perspective the U.S. promises not to threaten or use force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence?

BTW, I was not rationalizing going to war, I was asking a question.
 
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bob012345 said:
Are you saying this only means that from the U.S. perspective the U.S. promises not to threaten or use force against Ukraine’s territory or political independence?
Yes. the same goes for the Russians, which obviously is not worth much.
 
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bob012345 said:
How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?
They also bombed a theater filled with more than 1,000 sheltering civilians, especially children. Just prior to that, someone released a video plea from the location for humanitarian aid, because they were running out of food.

It is believed that Russia took notice to the theater based on the video, and were eager to bomb it because they knew it housed so many civilians and many children. After the bombing, Russian soldiers were heard aware of what they had done and celebrating.

I think that anywhere which hurts the most is where they want to hit the most.

1648003619036.png


1648003593581.png
 
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bob012345 said:
How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?

fresh_42 said:
With nowadays weapons? 100% intentionally.
True but tricky. What's tricky is identifying the target and proving whether it's [known] military or civilian. Using human shields is a war crime. Soldiers dressing as civilians is a war crime. Russia is claiming that Ukrainian forces are mixing with civilians, thus making the otherwise civilian targets legitimate military targets. Proving Putin is knowingly attacking purely civilian targets would be difficult.

[edit] Note: the case of the theater just above may be the most egregious and easiest to prove case of a purposely bombed, clearly civilian target.
 
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  • #1,443
phinds said:
Legality is irrelvant. What is RELEVANT is whether or not it will start WWIII and the consensus seems to be that it would.
Agree with the first part but not the second. The second part is a tautology (war between the West and Russia is the typical definition of WWIII) and isn't what matters. What matters is whether that war would become nuclear*. And I don't think there's a consensus about that. Some people seem to think it would be inevitable, others that it would be possible to likely and still others (me) believe it would almost certainly not happen. Of course, still others would say that "almost certainly not" is still too high a risk.

*Russia's showing in this war has been an epic failure. Iraq put up a better fight in both Gulf Wars. I feel like we (the US/NATO) could likely end this war in a matter of hours if we chose to, with air power alone. If it stayed conventional.

Some recent regional wars fought by the US/west:
Kosovo air war: 10 weeks, 27,000 sorties (air only)
First Iraq War: 6 weeks, 100,000 sorties
Second Iraq War: 4 weeks, 41,000 sorties
 
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Apropos:
Russia's security policy dictates that the country would only use nuclear weapons if its very existence were threatened, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told CNN in an interview on Tuesday.
https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-if-its-existence-were-threatened-2022-03-22/

While I've said several times I assumed that was the criteria, that's a very odd thing for Russia to announce. They're basically telling us we can drive them out of Ukraine without fear of a nuclear escalation.
 
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russ_watters said:
Apropos:

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...-if-its-existence-were-threatened-2022-03-22/

While I've said several times I assumed that was the criteria, that's a very odd thing for Russia to announce. They're basically telling us we can drive them out of Ukraine without fear of a nuclear escalation.
That's an odd walk back given most of their recent rhetoric, but it does align with their announced doctrine.

On the other hand, Putin's idea of Russia and it's survival seem to blur the lines.
 
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  • #1,446
bob012345 said:
How likely is it that that is intentionally done as a policy rather than happening through callous disregard?
It's intentional for sure. Make no mistake, ordinary unguided bombs are not that precise but also not that imprecise. The bombs don't have a tolerance factor of +-10miles. In a big city you don't exactly have a hospital on every street corner. So to hit a hospital when the nearest military target is say 5 miles is not a mistake.
Nor is it a mistake that in a high rise apartment suburb most buildings get bombed. Those apartment suburbs where huge for USSR built cities. In the picture below is one of the highrise apartment suburbs in Kharkiv, Ukraine, if 10 out of 10 bombs land in such an area can you really say it's a coincidence ?
view-to-residential-area-kharkiv-ukraine-159029385.jpg
 
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bob012345 said:
One question that I wonder about is this, the Ukrainian forces surely have some capability to lob a conventional weapon into Russia but they don't. My though is they restrain because they do not want to give any justification to Putin for his actions and because they are fighting a defensive war on the moral high ground.
I'm afraid they don't have any such capability. They only have close range weapons, from manpads to RPG's to some surface to air tools. Russian troops are already within their territory, the only real way they could send a bomb within Russian territory is either by a ballistic missile or through a bomber or fighter jet, but Russia has concentrated large SAM power near the border so realistically they would be shot down.

And I fail to see any need for them to provoke an even bigger attack or give Kremlin credibility, so far I'd say their already given an A+ performance holding back and weakening the already low conscript morale within the Russian army.
 
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russ_watters said:
True but tricky. What's tricky is identifying the target and proving whether it's [known] military or civilian. Using human shields is a war crime. Soldiers dressing as civilians is a war crime. Russia is claiming that Ukrainian forces are mixing with civilians, thus making the otherwise civilian targets legitimate military targets. Proving Putin is knowingly attacking purely civilian targets would be difficult.

[edit] Note: the case of the theater just above may be the most egregious and easiest to prove case of a purposely bombed, clearly civilian target.
Not to excuse Russian war crimes but I think there is some truth to that. Certainly Ukrainians aren't the first ones who came up with the tactic to hide behind civilian "facades" when fighting. Taliban etc are doing it all the time.
Given they are on the defense and Russia on the attack and most positions are held within urban surrounding, sure enough fighters hide behind buildings.

One local expert, which I could link here but would be of little use due to language, said basically this. That urban warfare is very hard and if one wants to "ride out" fighters in large numbers with high morale from such a setting one basically either has two choices, either

A) Go by foot door to door until you kill the last enemy soldier, or
B) Bomb the holy crap out of most infrastructure including buildings and starve the ones hiding to death.Oh and variant A is also complicated because it's not just Ukrainian soldiers that attack Russian troops, it is basically every granny and kid with a glass jar of pickles waiting for the right moment to sabotage.
You can't really win when everybody hates you so you basically have to resort to variant B.
Mariupol seems to be experiencing variant B
 
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What is interesting I just read that it's not just Putin recruiting foreign mercenaries from Syria, Kazakhstan, Chechnya etc, people from the same countries also voluntarily join Ukrainian side. So much so that you can now hear a fighter launching RPG's onto enemy exclaiming "Allahu akbar!" Even in a CNN newsclip.
Some Latvians have also joined the fight.

Meanwhile seems US has had some Russian weapons systems put away in storage for training etc. They plan giving them to Ukraine.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zo...-defense-systems-are-headed-to-ukraine-report
 
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fresh_42 said:
Right click and "copy video address" and "insert link".


Here is a PolitiFact article that analyzes why this video is so good.
The video is very slick in a Hollywood way, but it also has a bunch of hooks well aimed at his audience.
 
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