Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

To misquote James Joyce: history is a nightmare from which we should all try to awaken.

You can well take the present to observe how a democratically elected president / prime minister / whatever turns into a dictator. Several persons in Europe and nearby are not quite there yet, but they do their best to get there.

 

[Astronuc]

He wasn't appointed by a foreign power or by a military coup.The Russian people voted him in and stood back when political opponents were pushed out. They've done almost nothing to stop the rise of a dictator to a position of absolute power.

Most of the populace grew up under the Soviet system. There was a small window of opportunity ca. early 1990s, but the hardliners (nationalists) took control over the decade.

 

[fresh_42]

Most of the populace grew up under the Soviet system.

And it wasn't any better before.

 

[PeroK]

Most of the populace grew up under the Soviet system.

You might have thought that would have given them a belly full of dictatorship and made them less likely to succumb than those who couldn't imagine the horrors.

 

[Astronuc]

And it wasn't any better before.

No, of course not, but that is with what the people were familiar. That's what they knew.

 

[artis]

Well , even though @PeroK seems to dislike me for something which any intellectual person should have never got emotional about, here I have to partly agree with Perok.
If we look back at history at the beginning of the industrial revolution the conditions for workers were awful in all parts of the world. Capitalism back then was without "checks and balances" as we have them now, definitely not on that level.
The ideology of Karl Marx and Engels was popular at the time but it never reached the level of popularity where it could actually "spark" an assisted overthrow of government in any other place than Russia.

I think it is not just a coincidence that it was Russia where Communism began and ended. Yes the poor conditions of peasants and farmers under Czar contributed but also the mentality contributed. Different nations have different mentality. People in the east differ from those in the west not just by their language.
China is another example.

This does not mean that I label all people the same, I do not. But I have to agree from a first person experience with Russians that they tend to be more aggressive on average than a Brit or an American would be. This is my personal experience so no need to criticize it. That being said Russians are some of the best people I know, they are very helpful and such but they do have that "might makes right " type of emotional attitude towards stuff, that I cannot deny.

 

[fresh_42]

No, of course not, but that is what the people had familiarity. That's what they knew.

One of the facts why returning to democracy in Germany worked after WW II is, that we had it before and democratic movements since the 19th century. It wasn't a start from scratch and wasn't for 80 years. Some ignore this too often in my opinion and then are surprised that the model does not work elsewhere, e.g. in the middle and not so middle east.

 

[PeroK]

Anyway, this old Russian communist was praying to a bust of Stalin, begging him to return and save Russia once more. He prayed and prayed until one day, to his amazement, the bust spoke in the distinctive voice of uncle Joe.

All right, it said, I'll come back and save Russia. But, this time it will be no more Mr nice guy.

 

[artis]

One of the facts why returning to democracy in Germany worked after WW II is, that we had it before and democratic movements since the 19th century. It wasn't a start from scratch and wasn't for 80 years. Some ignore this too often in my opinion and then are surprised that the model does not work elsewhere, e.g. in the middle and not so middle east.

Exactly , on point. Russia has never had a democracy, those few years in the 90's doesn't count, it was more of a wild west, oligarchs grab all type of moment, while Yeltsin was busy getting drunk. (You can check youtube, he was drunk on visits often even)

This is the same reason the US spent billions (trillions? ) in Afghanistan and it all essentially is flushed down the toilet now. The taliban just ran that country over like a freight train.
I'm not saying there aren't people in the middle east or Afghanistan that don't want freedom I'm just saying that apparently their not in the majority. History and tradition is a powerful thing not to be erased that easily. Religion is too. Truth be told my opinion is that their religion is part of the problem but that is a whole different topic that this forums couldn't handle one bit, given how emotional some here get even so far.

 

[PeroK]

One of the facts why returning to democracy in Germany worked after WW II is, that we had it before and democratic movements since the 19th century. It wasn't a start from scratch and wasn't for 80 years. Some ignore this too often in my opinion and then are surprised that the model does not work elsewhere, e.g. in the middle and not so middle east.

At the risk of taking this thread further on a tangent, this is an extraordinarily simplistic analysis. It seems clear that human societies in all their forms are complex dynamical systems.

It's impossible, IMO, to boil down the success of democracy like this.

 

[fresh_42]

It's impossible, IMO, to boil down the success of democracy like this.

Surprisingly, I agree. However, it is equally too simplistic to ignore the effects of populism on societies. I'm sure the Russians dreamt of and had been promised a Western life in 1991. What they got instead was another system creeping silently into another oppression, which only recently revealed its full consequences. E.g. DW, BBC, and FB have been forbidden not earlier than these days.

 

[artis]

Seems like some want to follow Donetsk and Luhansk
https://www.romaniajournal.ro/polit...f-transnistrias-independence-romania-retorts/

 

[fresh_42]

Transnistria already followed Donbas and Luhansk. There are Russian troops already in. At least they have a river as a new border. And it is easier. The whole country splits into two parts anyway: one part is Russian, the other part is Romanian.

 

[Astronuc]

Transnistria already followed Donbas and Luhansk. There are Russian troops already in.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Transnistria_War

 

[Keith_McClary]

This has done a good job of splitting the world between "haves" and "have nots". The former are the countries with sanctions. Is this a coincidence, or someone's plan?

 

[PeroK]

This has done a good job of splitting the world between "haves" and "have nots". The former are the countries with sanctions. Is this a coincidence, or someone's plan?

Where do China and India, with 40% of the world population between them, fit into that model? Is China a "have" or "have not"?

 

[Keith_McClary]

Where do China and India, with 40% of the world population between them, fit into that model? Is China a "have" or "have not"?

In 2011 China was in the bottom half:

Reminds me of:

Russophrenia - a condition where the sufferer believes Russia is both about to collapse, and take over the world.
Bryan MacDonald

 

[PeroK]

In 2011 China was in the bottom half:
View attachment 297888

I guess that makes China a "have not"?

 

[fresh_42]

As of now, 3% of the entire Ukrainian population has already left the country, and no end is in sight. I have never seen so many little children on one spot as in the news these days. The children's hospital in Kyiv that is currently operating in the basement has sent many to Germany, but many cannot be transported. They die under the hands of the surgeons and nurses. Also, orphans and handicapped children arrived here.

It is these pictures that make me angry. One bullet, we only need one bullet.

 

[dlgoff]

As of now, 3% of the entire Ukrainian population has already left the country, and no end is in sight.

Wow. That's a lot.

 

[DennisN]

I feel pretty much the same way. Personally, I'm sad, uncertain and actually quite angry, to be honest.
But I hope for the best.

Also, I'm thinking that taking some kind of action could help with the feelings, maybe make some donation or something, perhaps.

In Singapore, the Ukrainian embassy suggested a donation to the Red Cross.

I've made a donation to the Red Cross which will go to humanitarian efforts in Ukraine. I may make more, and I also saw that they have a service where you can donate an amount monthly (at least on the page for the Swedish branch of the Red Cross).

 

[StevieTNZ]

Russia issues jail warning over spreading 'fake' war information

Russian President Vladimir Putin has signed a bill introducing a prison sentence of up to 15 years for spreading information that goes against the Russian government’s position on the war in Ukraine.

The bill criminalising the intentional spreading of what Russia deems to be “fake” reports about the war was quickly rubber-stamped by both houses of the Kremlin-controlled parliament earlier Friday (NZT Saturday).

Russian authorities have repeatedly decried reports of Russian military setbacks or civilian deaths in Ukraine as “fake” reports. State media outlets refer to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as a “special military operation” rather than a “war” or “invasion.”

The law envisages sentences of up to three years or fines for spreading what authorities deem to be false news about the military, but the maximum punishment rises to 15 years for cases deemed to have led to “severe consequences.”

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...-law-to-jail-russians-for-fake-reports-on-war

 

[Keith_McClary]

-- https://www.stuff.co.nz/world/europ...-law-to-jail-russians-for-fake-reports-on-war

Additionally, the draft law criminalizes the dissemination of “fake news.” Journalists deemed to be deliberately spreading disinformation would face a minimum fine of 4.7 million UAH ($195,000) and would acquire a criminal record. Those deemed to be repeatedly spreading “fake news” could be imprisoned for up to five years.

https://www.wilsoncenter.org/blog-p...ng-disinformation-or-targeting-freedom-speech

 

[fresh_42]

A German reporter in Moscow said 15years, yesterday.

 

[fresh_42]

General Chang: "To be or not to be?" That is the question which preoccupies our people, Captain Kirk. We need breathing room.
Captain James T. Kirk: Earth, Hitler, 1938.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Nope. It started the other way round.

Was joke. Note lack of articles.

 

[fresh_42]

There is a second migration going on. Finnland reports an increase of Russian tourists who - considering their luggage - are planning to stay.

 

[StevieTNZ]

Russia-Ukraine war: Polish volunteers rescuing Ukraine invasion's four-legged victims​

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/world/ru...ur-legged-victims/HL2EP3WMPSENHN6BGMEESZOGXI/

 

[Keith_McClary]

a wild west, oligarchs grab all type of moment

And foreign "investors" like Bill Browder.

 

[artis]

There is a second migration going on. Finnland reports an increase of Russian tourists who - considering their luggage - are planning to stay.

This is actually a problem, here in the Baltic republics we already have a historically high Russian population and if more come, well we cannot be sure that sometime in the future they don't change their mind and become Kremlin expansionist policy advocates. The population that is already here is somewhat split between those that love the local culture and condemn Russian aggression and those that when the first news of war came cheered on.

"A house divided against itself cannot stand" applies equally irrespective of where in the world that is.