Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[neilparker62]

"A house divided against itself cannot stand" applies equally irrespective of where in the world that is.

Mr Putin's logic seems to be burn down half the house and hope the other will still stand!

 

[artis]

Mr Putin's logic seems to be burn down half the house and hope the other will still stand!

I think Putin is a gambler. Gamblers sometimes take risks even in the face of clear danger to themselves. By no means there is a clear victory for him in Ukraine and the economic consequences are already severe.

I read on twitter that Russians have disabled Facebook and other western internet sites in Russian territory, it is now like in China or North Korea. Only difference between Russia and N.Korea is Russia has lots more resources and leverage.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...pletely-blocks-access-to-facebook-and-twitter

The one problem I see with the whole Ukraine deal, besides Zelensky seemingly getting more tired and weaker by the day, is that if let's say Russia take Ukraine and fully annexes it into Russia, what happens some years in the future? Does this stop or does Putin or whoever in the future builds up their military even more and then decides to show off with NATO...

For me right now the only safety guarantee in my mind is that Russians are bogged down in Ukraine and spending lots of energy there so they won't try to go further but what happens 10 years from now is a question.

 

[artis]

I read in local news that Russians (well those that still think straight and follow all news not just local) are trying to escape Russia as they fear Russia will turn into what it once was - a totalitarian state where all freedom and ability to escape will be lost.
The train to Finland from StPetersburg is crowded , Russians are going away to Finland, Baltics, even Turkey.
Probably this won't happen for long as Kremlin is rumored to crack down and introduce martial law in Russia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europ...ion-some-russians-try-flee-abroad-2022-03-03/
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/ar...ee-homeland-Citizens-pack-trains-Finland.html

https://yle.fi/news/3-12343658

Some more website blocking
https://www.axios.com/russia-exodus-putin-ukraine-invasion-9b5694d6-2394-40a5-a629-9551fc74fb39.html

 

[Oldman too]

Some more website blocking
https://www.axios.com/russia-exodus-putin-ukraine-invasion-9b5694d6-2394-40a5-a629-9551fc74fb39.html

I personally, already block axios, but that's a matter personal choice.

 

[artis]

I personally, already block axios, but that's a matter personal choice.

Well Facebook is also know to be a sweet spot of all kinds of misinformation but still I believe in a democracy you have to let all opinions be expressed as part of a free society. Clamping down and closing down everything from axios to Facebook is a sign of attack on freedom of speech I think.

 

[artis]

It seems there has been some Russian "friendly fire" in Ukraine. Certainly not the first time in Russia or military history
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dogger_Bank_incident

 

[artis]

Just watched some videos that I had seen before and forgotten,
Covid disrupted my plans to visit Ukraine , I had some places in mind, one of them is this
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_missile_forces_museum_in_Ukraine

Here is a Russian language vlog, with English subtitles available ,about some guys visiting the actual leftover missile silo for the RT-23 ICBM complex.
Ukraine truly had a huge nuclear potential back in the 90's, it had a considerable fraction of the USSR nuclear arsenal on it's land, among that they also had factories and design bureau that produced some of the missiles and their auxiliary equipment.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yuzhmash

Missiles produced at Pivdenmash included the first nuclear armed Soviet rocket R-5M (SS-3 'Shyster'), the R-12 Dvina (SS-4 'Sandal'), the R-14 Chusovaya (SS-5 'Skean'), the first widely deployed Soviet ICBM R-16 (SS-7 'Saddler'), the R-36 (SS-9 'Scarp'), the MR-UR-100 Sotka (SS-17 'Spanker'), and the R-36M (SS-18 'Satan'). During the Soviet era, the plant was capable of producing of up to 120 ICBMs a year. In the late 1980s, Pivdenmash was selected to be the main production facility of the RT-2PM2 Topol-M ICBM (SS-27 "Sickle B").

The most feared was "Satan" as it had a quick launch and was kept ready with it's gyroscopes spinning at all times to quicken the start. Had MIRV capability with up to 10 warheads within a single missile and 16 000km range A force to be reckoned with anywhere on the world.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/R-36_(missile)
https://nuke.fas.org/guide/russia/icbm/r-36m.htmLooking back now seems like if they had kept at least a part of their arsenal and upgraded it to the latest missiles they themselves produced it could have been a strong deterrent against Russia, but the expert opinions I read vary from ones saying disarming was good either way to ones saying the opposite.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nuclear_weapons_and_UkraineHere is a good excerpt from BBC questions

I think Konstantin is right.

 

[DennisN]

There is a second migration going on. Finnland reports an increase of Russian tourists who - considering their luggage - are planning to stay.

I've read about it in Swedish newspapers.

Here's an article in English published today, from the BBC, with short interviews with the people leaving Russia:

War in Ukraine: The Russians leaving Russia for Finland (BBC, 5 Mars 2022)​

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-60624500

Two quotes:

Some people are anxious to get out of Russia because there has been a persistent rumour that President Vladimir Putin's government might soon introduce martial law to deal with demonstrations against the invasion of Ukraine.

With flights to Europe halted, the only way out of the country is by car - crossing this border - or by train.
We spoke to one young Russian woman who was leaving for the West - one of the lucky ones who had an EU visa before the sanctions were announced. She was in despair at what has been happening.
"People in Ukraine are our people - our family," she said. "We shouldn't be killing them." Would she think of going back, I asked? "Not while our dreadful government is there. It is so, so sad."
She said most Russians don't want this war, but they risk going to jail if they try to stand up to Putin.

 

[neilparker62]

I think Putin is a gambler. Gamblers sometimes take risks even in the face of clear danger to themselves. By no means there is a clear victory for him in Ukraine and the economic consequences are already severe.

On the whole , I think we could probably do without this particular form of Russian Roulette!

 

[Borg]

I've read about it in Swedish newspapers.

Here's an article in English published today, from the BBC, with short interviews with the people leaving Russia:

Let's just hope that Putin doesn't later declare them as disaffected Russian citizens that need 'protecting'.

 

[fresh_42]

Let's just hope that Putin doesn't later declare them as disaffected Russian citizens that need 'protecting'.

What shall we say? There are currently 263,000 Russians and countless German-Russians (ancestors mainly emigrated under Catherine the Great to occupy thinly populated areas in Russia, and their descendants returned in the last century) in Germany.

 

[artis]

Let's just hope that Putin doesn't later declare them as disaffected Russian citizens that need 'protecting'.

In the soft power spectrum this usage of "protecting Russian diaspora" has been constant since the late 90's , here in Baltics we have had it constantly. We even have Kremlin sponsored political parties and leaders that have tried to "push" certain policies using this "protection" as an issue.

In Ukraine this "protecting" turned physical , here it can't because we managed to get further away (NATO, EU, etc) from Russian influence than most former republics.

 

[neilparker62]

In the soft power spectrum this usage of "protecting Russian diaspora" has been constant since the late 90's , here in Baltics we have had it constantly. We even have Kremlin sponsored political parties and leaders that have tried to "push" certain policies using this "protection" as an issue.

In Ukraine this "protecting" turned physical , here it can't because we managed to get further away (NATO, EU, etc) from Russian influence than most former republics.

How ironic that Russians themselves are fleeing to Finland to escape such 'protection' ! The Kremlin hierarchy should perhaps pause to reflect how can it be that they have failed to supply safety and security even for their own population.

 

[Keith_McClary]

"The Russians knew they were journalists, and wanted them dead. "

 

[Astronuc]

Time to liberate Russia from Putin.

 

[fresh_42]

Press conference after a football match today:

(Manager) "I didn't even know that a blue whale has an a**h*** that is one meter wide. And this isn't the biggest a**h**** in the world."

 

[fresh_42]

An atheist, an orthodox Jew, and an orthodox Christian ...

What a menagerie! What comes along like a bad joke is the travel diplomacy that took place today. Bennett on a surprise visit in Moscow, then on a surprise visit in Berlin. I hope we will have a positive surprise tomorrow.

 

[Astronuc]

'They shoot at anyone who tries to leave.' Ukrainians describe terror of living under Russian occupation​

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...of-living-under-russian-occupation/ar-AAUF7su

Before the Russian invasion of Ukraine

March 4 (Reuters) - A growing number of Russians and Ukrainians are traveling to Mexico, buying throwaway cars and driving across the border into the United States to seek asylum, a trend that could accelerate as Russia's invasion of Ukraine has forced more than a million people to flee their homes.

U.S. border officials encountered about 6,400 Russians in the four months between October 2021 and January of this year, Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data show. That's more than the roughly 4,100 apprehended during the entire 2021 fiscal year, which ended Sept. 30. The jump is similar for Ukrainians, with a little more than 1,000 apprehended since October 2021 through January, compared to about 680 for all of the last fiscal year.

https://www.reuters.com/world/more-russians-ukrainians-seek-asylum-us-mexico-border-2022-03-04/

I don't see many people fleeing to Russia. Why is that?!

Time free Ukraine and liberate Russia from Putin (and the oligarchs)!

 

[Keith_McClary]

Time free Ukraine and liberate Russia from Putin (and the oligarchs)!

I see media noise about going after the oligarchs, but this will make it harder for crooks to steal from Russia and escape with the loot to the West. They will always leave loopholes for our oligarchs entrepreneurs.

 

[Jarvis323]

Putin holds scared flight attendants hostage, forces them to sit with him as he threatens world war conflict


Maybe they are wondering why they are there, and whether he is going to ask them to join the air force?

 

[fresh_42]

The Russian embassy in Germany complained today that Russians are being discriminated against in Germany. Furthermore, someone speculated that Putin might have severe mental issues. That would make my F60.0 diagnosis a cough in comparison.

 

[DennisN]

My father sent me this clever picture earlier today:

 

[phinds]

My father sent me this clever picture earlier today:

Seems like a more appropriate one would be Putin shooting the dove with an AK47

 

[StevieTNZ]

The Russian embassy in Germany complained today that Russians are being discriminated against in Germany.

Fair enough - not all of them are deserving of hate because they may not support Putin's actions and are against the invasion.

 

[vela]

Putin holds scared flight attendants hostage, forces them to sit with him as he threatens world war conflict.

Your bias is showing. The videos description says these women are pilots, not flight attendants.

The video appears to have been faked. When it shows the close-up of Putin, his image seems to be superimposed on a background. Plus, his hand miraculously goes through a microphone.

I've heard from several mainstream sources that agree with Putin that establishing a no-fly zone essentially amounts to a declaration of war since you enforce a no-fly zone by shooting down aircraft. It's the reason the U.S. and other countries aren't willing to go that far lest they be drawn into the conflict.

 

[fresh_42]

Fair enough - not all of them are deserving of hate because they may not support Putin's actions and are against the invasion.

Idiots are everywhere and Germany is no exception. But so far I only have heard of one event against a Russian grocery store (Graffiti or window, I don't recall). I was saying it because of Putin's declared goal to protect Russians in countries he doesn't have a say in. We have currently 263,000 Russians here. Furthermore, the number of Russians (=grew up in) with a German passport (=have German ancestry a couple of centuries ago) is even significantly higher than that.

 

[phinds]

I've heard from several mainstream sources that agree with Putin that establishing a no-fly zone essentially amounts to a declaration of war since you enforce a no-fly zone by shooting down aircraft.

That's too simplistic. You can't just shoot down aircraft, you have to destroy the ground based surface to air missiles that are protecting the air-space they are in and sometimes, near a border with Ukraine for example, those might be in a different country (Russia for example).

So, yes, a no-fly zone is tantamount to declaring war on Russia.

 

[fresh_42]

So, yes, a no-fly zone is tantamount to declaring war on Russia.

Plus it usually requires a mandate from the UN security council, and ...

 

[Bruzote]

I'm really worried that the situation in Ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia. Any thoughts?

Some humans will always want to oppress others. It's a risk, but keeping that kind of outcome away always comes with the risk of conflict and loss. Living under Putin would be miserable. Russian kleptocrats stole so much from the citizens, it was like stealing 20 TRILLION dollars if it happened in America. Can you work hard enough day and night to pay 20 TRILLION to thieves? You want scary? Imagine being at risk of 15 years in prison because you used the word "war" to describe the war in Ukraine. So, if you are willing to think about things that make you full of fear, think about than. When you realize how awful that would be and for how many people, be *grateful* some people will stand up with ONE HUNDRED PERCENT CERTAINTY of being in combat so that you don't have to while you cower online. Be grateful. We need to fight in Ukraine, even if it means the US pulls the gloves off. Better to fight now than have our necks under a boot for the rest of our lives.

 

[Jarvis323]

Your bias is showing. The videos description says these women are pilots, not flight attendants.

I missed that in the description. The articles I read said they were flight attendants.

Mr Putin made the remarks while speaking to a group of women flight attendants at an Aeroflot training centre near Moscow.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60633482

The video appears to have been faked. When it shows the close-up of Putin, his image seems to be superimposed on a background. Plus, his hand miraculously goes through a microphone.

Why would he fake that?

I've heard from several mainstream sources that agree with Putin that establishing a no-fly zone essentially amounts to a declaration of war since you enforce a no-fly zone by shooting down aircraft. It's the reason the U.S. and other countries aren't willing to go that far lest they be drawn into the conflict.

The irony is that Putin doesn't think that invading a country to demilitarize it, and assassinate its leaders amounts to a declaration of war. This is also why he didn't say that a no fly zone would lead to war, he said it would lead to a conflict with the offending nation.