Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

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The discussion centers on the complexities and potential consequences of the ongoing tensions in Ukraine, drawing parallels to historical conflicts. Participants express concerns about the motivations behind Putin's actions, suggesting he aims to expand Russian influence and possibly recreate aspects of the Soviet Union. The effectiveness of Western sanctions is debated, with skepticism about their impact on halting Russian aggression. There are fears that if the West does not respond decisively, the situation could escalate beyond Ukraine, potentially affecting other regions like Taiwan. Overall, the conversation highlights the precarious nature of international relations and the risks of underestimating authoritarian ambitions.
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  • #1,902
This is the first time I've heard a senior UK politician say that we should get involved militarily (by defending Odessa and providing a maritime force to keep it connected to international waters). Tobias Ellwood is chair of the Defence Select Committe:



He also said that we should stop hoping that Putin will be removed and debating whether he will be tried for war crimes and focus on helping Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion.
 
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  • #1,903
PeroK said:
A pro-Russia demonstration in Berlin. What's going on?
1) idiots
2) imported corruption
3) both above
 
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  • #1,904
The Sun is a sink-hole indeed
 
  • #1,905
I would be more concerned if there wasn't one! We have a system with more than one allowed opinion.
 
  • #1,906
fresh_42 said:
I would be more concerned if there wasn't one! We have a system with more than one allowed opinion.
Some opinions, although allowed, can be a cause for concern especially when a lot of people share them.
 
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  • #1,907


Russian State TV
 
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  • #1,908
PeroK said:
This is the first time I've heard a senior UK politician say that we should get involved militarily (by defending Odessa and providing a maritime force to keep it connected to international waters). Tobias Ellwood is chair of the Defence Select Committe:



He also said that we should stop hoping that Putin will be removed and debating whether he will be tried for war crimes and focus on helping Ukraine to fight off the Russian invasion.

A message needs to be sent to Russia via diplomatic means. Odessa will involve NATO protection.
 
  • #1,909
wrobel said:
The Sun is a sink-hole indeed
It's just an entertainment magazine with news in it. Ordinary people do not invest the time to look into world affairs, Science affairs, ethical issues deeply. They prefer fast food news, they have to feed the cat and get the kids ready for school.
 
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  • #1,910
geordief said:


Russian State TV

He spoke though yes?
 
  • #1,911
that is what going on on Russian TV in all channels 24*7
pinball1970 said:
He spoke though yes?
have not got the question
 
  • #1,912
wrobel said:
that is what going on on Russian TV in all channels 24*7

have not got the question
He was shut down and they clearly did not want him to speak. Like he had details that they did not want him to expand on.
'Our forces they are out there...' 'our country it's...'
Interrupted 'no no no'
'they are dying'
Interrupted again
'they are dying..'
Some younger guy in his 30s telling what looked like an decorated war horse to shut up.
 
  • #1,913
mentioning about casualties in Russian army was apparently out of the format
 
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  • #1,914
martinbn said:
Some opinions, although allowed, can be a cause for concern especially when a lot of people share them.
With a sample size of at least 26,330 you can expect some in the Gaußian tails. It is only here on PF not a neglectable event to fit someone's prejudices. There are 3,664,000 who did not demonstrate.
 
  • #1,915
wrobel said:
All these nonsense is just a propaganda nothing to speak about. The truth is approximately as follows: For a long time Mr. Putin has been experiencing problems with stability of his power inside the country; particularly he understands that so called majority support is not real but artificial and based on propaganda and repressions; and this majority support can fade in a minute. (If he has such a great support of Russian society then why he increases the police forces all the time?)
A war and an external enemy is an old recipe to consolidate the society around the government. All dictators know it.
I think I was looking for some 'saving graces'. Very plainly there are none. It's very depressing - only hope I see is more and more Russian officers speaking out as in post #1907. Perhaps again it's wishful thinking on my part but there has to be some kind of code of honour in the Russian armed services which views with revulsion what we are seeing in Bucha and other cities that have fallen under Russian occupation.
 
  • #1,916
neilparker62 said:
Perhaps again it's wishful thinking on my part but there has to be some kind of code of honour in the Russian armed services which views with revulsion what we are seeing in Bucha and other cities that have fallen under Russian occupation.
Well I can't cite studies with regards to this as most of it has happened long ago or in places few people had ways to document it (unlike now) so this is anecdotal evidence, but it is a known fact around where I live that the Russian army has always been more brutal and cruel than other armies. I am not saying all of the soldiers are alike and that there are no soldiers with dignity and honor, but I am saying there are plenty that are.

Red army soldiers raped women back in WW2, looted houses, killed dogs for fun and did other war crimes.
Only back then it all happened on a more massive scale, what has happened so far in Ukraine pales in comparison.
To understand this better one needs to understand the psychology of the average Russian conscript. Unlike his western counterpart he is not a paid professional but rather a guy who failed to get into university (or never even attempted), many come from poor backgrounds and rural places. Their upbringing isn't always according to "the book".
I have heard many personal stories from former army men who were in the obligatory service during the USSR about how harsh army was. Much depended on to which base one was sent. On average those closer to the west like East Germany or Baltics were nicer while the far east ones were harsh not just psychologically but physically. My father had to sleep in barracks while it was -30 outside (Celsius) and inside it was around 0, heat was sometimes a luxury item.
Alot also depended on the local officers and their attitude, some let violence between recruits pass as norm.
It wasn't uncommon for two cadets to get into a fight where someone later died from injuries, not much was done. Dying while in service irrespective of cause was more or less "collateral damage".
It was every loving mother's greatest fear for her son when the time of army came, on average everyone had to serve 2 years. During the 80's many got unlucky and got either sent to Afghanistan or Chernobyl.
So you wish to understand how a war crime is made? Well imagine a poor upbringing combined with mandated service combined with propaganda, fear, stress, lack of sleep, and probably most importantly the understanding that the territory in which you are in is outside law. Those guys know that whatever they do nobody will even ask. So in the end of the day, it's each man according to his conscience.I really do believe that most people are capable of extreme evil if put in the right conditions. I am not excusing Russian war crimes as I believe most are/have been done on purpose, but I think there is plenty of evidence from around the globe how people turn evil rather quickly.
Look at some of the out of control protests in US in these past years, without any police presence I think things would have taken a sharp turn for the worst.

I think the reason why we mostly haven't seen such barbarism in the west is not because people in general have changed, is just that society there has had time to build up strong enough countermeasures that keep everyone in check, even those that would otherwise resort to violence.
And even with those measures and even in a country like the US which is among the most civilized societies ever on Earth there still are neighborhoods and places where homicide and theft is a daily occurrence.

Wish to understand the average Russian conscript? , well just imagine a street gang with official authority and modern weapons, there you have it. I think it's now easy to see how they can shoot civilians on the street and have no remorse.
Again this is not a blanket statement for all, but there is a sizeable portion of such men in the Russian army, and they are being driven towards that at certain times from above.
 
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  • #1,917
neilparker62 said:
I see is more and more Russian officers speaking out as in post #1907.
That colonel said that we must feat the honor of those Russian soldiers who died struggling against Ukrainians and he completely agreed with the guy who shut him up.
 
  • #1,918
wrobel said:
That colonel said that we must feat the honor of those Russian soldiers who died struggling against Ukrainians and he completely agreed with the guy who shut him up.
True the English translation is incomplete,@pinball1970 listening in Russian there was never a moment where anyone expressed any sympathy for dead Ukrainians, the guy basically said that Russians have died and that is bad and then the TV presenter did not even allow that and shut him up and said that we should instead focus on , to paraphrase him "on how the glorious Russian army is fighting Nazists and fascists"
 
  • #1,919
wrobel said:
That colonel said that we must feat the honor of those Russian soldiers who died struggling against Ukrainians and he completely agreed with the guy who shut him up.
I don't think this is easy to judge. Firstly, there are no excuses for those war crimes and barbaric actions. On the other hand, normal Russian soldiers, often between 18 and 20 years of age, and of whom thousands have died already, are victims, too. Guilt is an individual property, it does not apply to groups. But I have another problem. I have had a Russian earworm for weeks ... Any ideas?
 
  • #1,920
fresh_42 said:
But I have another problem. I have had a Russian earworm for weeks ... Any ideas?
If thine ear offend thee ...
 
  • #1,921
PeroK said:
If thine ear offend thee ...
The song is from 1994. I won't stop listening to Tchaikovsky either.
 
  • #1,922
What are the odds of success of bribing the majority of Russian soldiers in Ukraine to switch sides and defend Ukraine in exchange for money and safety and Ukrainian citizenship?
 
  • #1,923
They have bribed some to give up and surrender.
Don't know about the rest.
 
  • #1,924
fresh_42 said:
I don't think this is easy to judge.
I have just translated
fresh_42 said:
But I have another problem. I have had a Russian earworm for weeks ... Any ideas?
Try Led Zeppelin
PeroK said:
If thine ear offend thee ...
oh yes to be like van Gogh
 
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  • #1,925
bob012345 said:
What are the odds of success of bribing the majority of Russian soldiers in Ukraine to switch sides and defend Ukraine in exchange for money and safety and Ukrainian citizenship?
That is like bribing a criminal at the moment when he is stealing your car, sure he might comply and take your money and then come back tomorrow to also take your car.
 
  • #1,926
I really don't believe in diplomacy here, definitely not now. I think there is basically just one option and that is to supply Ukraine with a steady stream of weapons. It will cost yes but EU and US needs to do it because no one else will, and unlike Vietnam, US soldiers don't have to die by the thousands, at least not now so we should seize the moment while it's there.

A strong Ukraine able to defend itself is also a good safety check to keep Russia at bay, otherwise they might try out similar tactics in other former republics.
Ukrainians need to beat Russians then it will be a true blow, if the west get's directly involved then it will only make matters worse and Putin will be emboldened to fight out his "war of ages" that he sees as the rightful continuation of his motherland.
 
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  • #1,927
Am I the only one here who fears escalation to WWIII and nuclear holocaust?
 
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  • #1,928
pinball1970 said:
He was shut down and they clearly did not want him to speak. Like he had details that they did not want him to expand on.
'Our forces they are out there...' 'our country it's...'
Interrupted 'no no no'
'they are dying'
Interrupted again
'they are dying..'
Some younger guy in his 30s telling what looked like an decorated war horse to shut up.
@artis and @wrobel. I thought he was being candid: "our forces are dying and our country it's ..." (?). Russia needs more 'war horses' of that ilk who at least have some kind of grip on reality (unlike the TV presenter who plainly didn't have a clue!).
 
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  • #1,929
anorlunda said:
Am I the only one here who fears escalation to WWIII and nuclear holocaust?
No - we all do. It's just too horrific to contemplate!
 
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  • #1,930
Seems like the west pushed Ukraine to abandon too many of their weapons , not just the thermonuclear arsenal.
 
  • #1,931
fresh_42 said:
I don't think this is easy to judge. Firstly, there are no excuses for those war crimes and barbaric actions. On the other hand, normal Russian soldiers, often between 18 and 20 years of age, and of whom thousands have died already, are victims, too. Guilt is an individual property, it does not apply to groups.
Yes but there is a big difference between a soldier and a murderer.
Long ago Soviet artist Nikulin told a story. He was a soldier in Military Intelligence at WW2. In the night his group was going along a railway mound. Suddenly they saw a German Military Intelligence group and Germans saw them. They jumped down to the slope of the mound. Germans jumped down to the opposite side. One German soldier confused in the dark and jumped to the slope where the soviet group was.
Soviets grabbed this guy by his hands and legs swung him and threw him over the mound to the German group. Both groups laughed and went to different directions without fight.
 
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  • #1,932
artis said:
That is like bribing a criminal at the moment when he is stealing your car, sure he might comply and take your money and then come back tomorrow to also take your car.
The US bribed a lot of people in Afghanistan and Iraq to work with the US.
 
  • #1,933
BillTre said:
The US bribed a lot of people in Afghanistan and Iraq to work with the US.
They did, and some were trustworthy while others snitched of US positions and made Taliban easier to attack, is what I have heard.
 
  • #1,934
anorlunda said:
Am I the only one here who fears escalation to WWIII and nuclear holocaust?
Putin will use that fear to ultimately get everything he wants no matter the cost to Russian and other lives. I believe there are opportunities to escalate U.S., E.U. and NATO involvement while minimizing those risks. Let's not kid ourselves, the West is already at war with Russia indirectly as we are pouring weapons into Ukraine as well as troops as unofficial volunteers.

The best chance to mitigate how bad the international situation ultimately gets is to act now in a calculated but assertive way.
 
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  • #1,935
wrobel said:
Yes but there is a big difference between a soldier and a murderer.
Long ago Soviet artist Nikulin told a story. He was a soldier in Military Intelligence at WW2. In the night his group was going along a railway mound. Suddenly they saw a German Military Intelligence group and Germans saw them. They jumped down to the slope of the mound. Germans jumped down to the opposite side. One German soldier confused in the dark and jumped to the slope where the soviet group was.
Soviets grabbed this guy by his hands and legs swung him and threw him over the mound to the German group. Both groups laughed and went to different directions without fight.
This reminds me of a story I read in a book written by "Mavriks Vulfsons". He was Jewish and a die hard Marxist when young and fought in the Soviet Red army during WW2, he later became opposed to Marxism and the policies of USSR and even went as far as to publicly denounce the occupation of the Baltic states by USSR after WW2, he dared to talk about this during the "perstroika" years in Moscow. @wrobel I think you might know him or at least heard of him.

Anyway the story goes like this. As he fought back in WW2 he was a radio operator. He was listening in on a German radio operator giving commands and locations of enemy positions to his artillery for them to engage them. He knew German well and after a while learned to mimic the German operators voice. Then one day they jammed the German radios and instead he started speaking to the Germans via his Red army radio. He mimicked the German radio operators voice and gave German artillery locations to bomb, sure enough the Germans carried out the command.
In the end he had given the Germans the locations of their own troops (tanks, bunkers, fortification etc ) Germans managed to conduct a sizeable "friendly fire" bombing before they were informed by their own to stop.
 
  • #1,936
bob012345 said:
the West is already at war with Russia indirectly as we are pouring weapons into Ukraine as well as troops as unofficial volunteers.
Just as they were in all the proxy wars during the USSR, so far nothing new under the sun.
 
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  • #1,937
artis said:
Just as they were in all the proxy wars during the USSR, so far nothing new under the sun.
Which is why introducing limited combat regiments into Ukraine will not necessarily trigger nuclear war. I think the West should allow immediate provisional NATO membership (or at least Guardianship) of Ukraine, or at least the parts outside of the Donbas region for now.
 
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  • #1,938
bob012345 said:
I believe there are opportunities to escalate U.S., E.U. and NATO involvement while minimizing those risks.
What are the consequences if you are wrong?
 
  • #1,939
bob012345 said:
Putin will use that fear to ultimately get everything he wants no matter the cost to Russian and other lives.
Exactly:
1649188610199.png
 
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  • #1,940
bob012345 said:
Which is why introducing limited combat regiments into Ukraine will not necessarily trigger nuclear war. I think the West should allow immediate provisional NATO membership (or at least Guardianship) of Ukraine, or at least the parts outside of the Donbas region for now.
And I never claimed that having foreign fighters in Ukraine will trigger a war, in fact there are already quite a few from different countries including mine. So much so I know a few personally that have went to Ukraine and are now fighting there. We have historically had good relations with Ukraine , about 10k people of them already here living among us now, they call us brothers.
From what I hear it's not so much the number of soldiers that is lacking but the weapons that are needed so that each man can be able to cause maximum damage to enemy forces.
 
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  • #1,941
anorlunda said:
What are the consequences if you are wrong?
And once you've sacrified 45 million Ukrainians, then you sacrifice 40 million Poles, then 80 million Germans and eventually hand over the USA to Russia if Putin threatens you with WWIII?

Yes, it's a risk, but there may be no future for any democracy if we've decided that fighting is not an option.

We have to fight sooner or later, so if not now when?
 
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  • #1,942
PeroK said:
And once you've sacrified 45 million Ukrainians, then you sacrifice 40 million Poles, then 80 million Germans and eventually hand over the USA to Russia if Putin threatens you with WWIII?

Yes, it's a risk, but there may be no future for any democracy if we've decided that fighting is not an option.

We have to fight sooner or later, so if not now when?
I agree. Reluctantly.
 
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  • #1,943
anorlunda said:
What are the consequences if you are wrong?
When the survivors eventually re-establish something that resembles a physics education the topic of Nuclear Physics will never again be taught.
 
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  • #1,945
PeroK said:
We have to fight sooner or later, so if not now when?
Following that logic, our side should launch a preemptive first nuclear strike. It is less risk than letting Russia decide if and when to strike. It is less risk than a gradual escalation. It might bother our consciences a bit to kill 145 million people, but we'll get over it. --- No, that is flawed logic, I don't buy it.

So the answer to "if not now when?" is, we are free to war with Russia when MAD (mutually assured destruction) is no longer in effect.

Analogous questions will arise if China invades Taiwan, which has been imminent for a year or so.

Our military has been wrestling with nuclear brinksmanship for more than 60 years. There is nothing new about the situation in Ukraine. MAD imposes huge constraints on the wars we are able to wage.
 
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  • #1,946
anorlunda said:
Following that logic, our side should launch a preemptive first nuclear strike. It is less risk than letting Russia decide if and when to strike. It is less risk than a gradual escalation. It might bother our consciences a bit to kill 145 million people, but we'll get over it. --- No, that is flawed logic, I don't buy it.

So the answer to "if not now when?" is, we are free to war with Russia when MAD (mutually assured destruction) is no longer in effect.

Analogous questions will arise if China invades Taiwan, which has been imminent for a year or so.

Our military has been wrestling with nuclear brinksmanship for more than 60 years. There is nothing new about the situation in Ukraine. MAD imposes huge constraints on the wars we are able to wage.
If you don't want to do anything that might risk nuclear war, what's your suggestion then?
 
  • #1,947
anorlunda said:
Following that logic, our side should launch a preemptive first nuclear strike. It is less risk than letting Russia decide if and when to strike. It is less risk than a gradual escalation. It might bother our consciences a bit to kill 145 million people, but we'll get over it. --- No, that is flawed logic, I don't buy it.
If we were to attack first it takes the probability of such a war to 100%, as opposed to now (even if we are somewhat provocative), which would be a much lower probability.
 
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  • #1,948
bob012345 said:
If you don't want to do anything that might risk nuclear war, what's your suggestion then?
What we're already doing. We used sanctions and a few weapons to help Ukraine without push Putin's/Russia's back to the wall. Escalating weapons, and calling for regime change and war crimes trials is destabilizing.

But if risk of nuclear war is on the table, then I vote for immediate preemptive first strike.

The hellish thing about nuclear strategy is that only extremes are possible, no nuances, no middle roads are available. So between the USA and Russia, our choices are all-out nuclear war, or no war at all.
 
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  • #1,949
anorlunda said:
Am I the only one here who fears escalation to WWIII and nuclear holocaust?
Probably not, but:
  • I think it's very unlikely even in the event of NATO entry into the war.
  • What is by definition WWIII likely wouldn't be a big deal if it remained non-nuclear.
 
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  • #1,950
anorlunda said:
Following that logic, our side should launch a preemptive first nuclear strike.
That's not logic that I can follow. Sorry.
 
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