Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

There is a joke that currently goes around in Ukraine:

"Ask a Ukrainian to find a living dinosaur and he will get one in half an hour."

It means that there is large solidarity in the Ukrainian society and they help each other wherever they can.

 

[artis]

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/politics/biden-congress-soviet-made-weapons-ukraine/index.html

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022...could-target-western-arms-supplies-to-ukraine

“We warned the United States that the orchestrated pumping of weapons from a number of countries is not just a dangerous move, it is a move that turns these convoys into legitimate targets,” Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov told state television on Saturday.

 

[Astronuc]

The U.S. Embassy in Ukraine said Russian troops "shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread" on Wednesday in the decimated northeast Ukrainian city of Chernihiv. The embassy did not cite what evidence it had of the attack in a statement posted on its official Twitter account.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/russia-troops-ukraine-kill-10-cherihiv-bread-line-us-embassy-says/

Today, Russian forces shot and killed 10 people standing in line for bread in Chernihiv. Such horrific attacks must stop. We are considering all available options to ensure accountability for any atrocity crimes in Ukraine.

— U.S. Embassy Kyiv (@USEmbassyKyiv) March 16, 2022

With each day, the cost in human lives and suffering of Russia's war on Ukraine rises. The United Nations human rights office has registered about 600 civilian deaths, but the U.N. acknowledges the real toll is certain to be far higher. Ukrainian officials say thousands have been killed — more than 2,000 in the besieged southern city of Mariupol alone.

On Tuesday, Reuters interviewed Mykola Vasylinko in Kyiv, who said he had just fled to the capital from Chernihiv, where the situation was "much worse."

"This is no Chernihiv," he told Reuters. "They [Russian forces] have tried to erase [it] from the Earth's surface. They bomb residential areas, they specifically target residential buildings."

Chernihiv is one of several large cities very close to Ukraine's northeast border with Russia that have come under blistering artillery fire since Vladimir Putin ordered the invasion and air war against Ukraine to start on February 24.

Something like 900 missiles have been fired from Russia into Ukraine, and that does not include artillery shells.

Either NATO needs to step up and take out the artillery and rocket launchers, or provide the means for Ukraine to do so!

 

[artis]

Either NATO needs to step up and take out the artillery and rocket launchers, or provide the means for Ukraine to do so!

I agree NATO needs to play bit tougher with Putin, I read Russian analysts almost all agree that if Putin doesn't see force put against him, and God forbid he manages to take Ukraine (even as a frozen conflict) then eventually with time he might move on to bigger targets. Being scared of Russia's thermonuclear arsenal, as powerful as it is, will only lead to escalation in the future and then again the risk for WW3 will be on the table only then with less options.
Now I have an idea as to "how to backfill" NATO state owned Russian S-300 given to Ukraine...
Step 1) Take the seized Russian oligarch money and yachts, sell the yachts and get more money
Step 2) Use the money seized from Russian oligarchs and buy new S-300 from Russia in cash (they might like dollars or euro given the current value of Ruble)
If Step 2 doesn't work because Russians get mad use step 3

Step 3) Give the seized money to a Russian ally, pay them extra , they buy the weapons and then transfer them to the countries that are part of NATO which gave them to Ukraine. If Kremlin asks "what the hell?" then simply reply - we don't know! Most likely a special military operation...

 

[DennisN]

I hope this is true:

I've heard of several streets in Europe with Russian embassies changing names to something about Ukraine.
I think there's one proposal in Sweden going on. I'll see if I can find an article about it.

Update: Yes. The street on which the Russian embassy is located on in Stockholm, Sweden, may get a new name related to Ukraine. It is currently being discussed.

(Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/ryska-ambassaden-kan-fa-ukraina-adress, Swedish only)

And there's a similar suggestion in Gothenburg, Sweden, for the Russian consulate.

(Source: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/göteborg/över-300-personer-vill-ha-zelenskyjs-gata-i-göteborg-1.67835054, Swedish only)

 

[artis]

 

[PeroK]

I've heard of several streets in Europe with Russian embassies changing names to something about Ukraine.
I think there's one proposal in Sweden going on. I'll see if I can find an article about it.

Update: Yes. The street on which the Russian embassy is located on in Stockholm, Sweden, may get a new name related to Ukraine. It is currently being discussed.

(Source: https://www.svt.se/nyheter/lokalt/stockholm/ryska-ambassaden-kan-fa-ukraina-adress, Swedish only)

And there's a similar suggestion in Gothenburg, Sweden, for the Russian consulate.

(Source: https://www.gp.se/nyheter/göteborg/över-300-personer-vill-ha-zelenskyjs-gata-i-göteborg-1.67835054, Swedish only)

This is all well and good, but if I was in Ukraine being shelled I would ask Sweden "is that all you've got for us?" Renaming a street? It's hardly an exercise in courage.

 

[DennisN]

This is all well and good, but if I was in Ukraine being shelled I would ask Sweden "is that all you've got for us?" Renaming a street? It's hardly an exercise in courage.

I don't see it so much as an exercise in courage.
I see it as a morale/psychological effort. It is sending a signal to the Russians that "we stand with Ukraine", "we do not fear you" and that "we do as we please on our own land." Sort of a foreign "homefront".

Which is made in addition to supplying funds, humanitarian aid, food and military equipment to Ukraine (which we've done).

 

[fresh_42]

I hope this is true:

View attachment 298434

It is true!​

Look at Google Maps:

 

[Astronuc]

Russian troops destroy theater in Mariupol​

MARIUPOL, Ukraine — Ukrainian officials say Russian forces destroyed a theater in the city of Mariupol where hundreds of people were sheltering.
https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukraine-war-live-updates-4b454893e43526a2103c80e8562cbd73

The Maxar satellite imagery firm said images from Monday showed the word “children” had been written in large white letters in Russian in front of and behind the building.

Nowhere has suffered more than the encircled city of Mariupol, where local officials say missile strikes and shelling have killed more than 2,300 people. The southern seaport of 430,000 has been under attack for almost all of the three-week war in a siege that has left people struggling for food, water, heat and medicine.

Bodies of children litter streets.

So, it appears the Russian strategy is to murder children and civilian/non-combatants.

 

[StevieTNZ]

 

[Vanadium 50]

So, it appears the Russian strategy is to murder children and civilian/non-combatants.

]russian accent]Good. Make softer targets and do not challenge Mother Russia when growing up. [/russian accent]

Seriously why do you find this surprising? This is a war Putin cannot afford to lose.

 

[Astronuc]

Seriously why do you find this surprising? This is a war Putin cannot afford to lose.

I know, but it's not clear to me that those who talk about a 'diplomatic' solution, or an off-ramp, understand that.

This is a war that Putin must lose, and Russia must pay a price.

Time to liberate Russia from Putin and his crony oligarchs.

 

[DennisN]

A long and intense article:

"'We all will be judged.' Russian prisoners of war voice disquiet, shame over war in Ukraine" (CNN, March 16, 2022)
https://edition.cnn.com/2022/03/15/europe/ukraine-russian-prisoners-of-war-intl/index.html

Note:

[...]
Their public appearances may be questionable under the Geneva Conventions, which forbid states from causing unnecessary humiliation to prisoners of war. And it is possible that they felt pressure to express views sympathetic to those of their captors.

But three captured Russian air force pilots who spoke to CNN did not suggest they were speaking under duress.

CNN requested access to speak with the prisoners with the Ukrainian Interior Ministry. That request was made prior to a press conference that took place in Kyiv on Friday. CNN spoke with the three men immediately after that press conference.
[...]

I saw a news clip about this from CNN earlier today also, and they provided only quotes and no pictures/filming of the prisoners. It's available on youtube.

 

[StevieTNZ]

It is true!​

Look at Google Maps:

Similar to what has happened in Wellington - https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-po...ts-by-renaming-wellington-street-zelenskiy-rd

Pranksters in Wellington have renamed Messines Rd – where the Russian Embassy is based – to “Zelenskiy Rd” in honour of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Wellington City Council spokesperson Richard MacLean said the council would change the sign back eventually, but it was not a top priority.

“We recognise and sympathise with the international outrage over the Russian invasion. We also acknowledge that our contractors are very, very busy at the moment and may not be able to attend to this issue as a matter of urgency,” Maclean said.

“We hope residents in the neighbourhood will understand.”

 

[hutchphd]

I think The President of the United States is doing an excellent job in a very very very difficult situation. Sorrow may be our constant companion but Anger dare not be our guide. Emotion cannot be our calculus. Moral disgust is appropriate but not a solution.
Thermonuclear Weapons, even launched with righteous indignation, are far less moral than many small bodies bombed onto the street by a lunatic. There is no ambiguity here

/

 

[DennisN]

Similar to what has happened in Wellington - https://www.stuff.co.nz/dominion-po...ts-by-renaming-wellington-street-zelenskiy-rd

I've got a great story from Norway I read about today. It made me smile in these dire times. I'll find it and post it here soon.

Edit: Btw, I've just read reports on Twitter of many explosions heard in south Belarus. I'm keeping an eye on what that is about.

 

[MevsEinstein]

Ukraine and Russia are top producers of wheat. Both are also among the top petroleum producers. Ukraine is an important U.S. ally on the Black Sea, and if Ukraine is conquered, people will hate Biden and the Democrats. These factors can cause World War 3 between Russia and the U.S..

I hope I don't die in this war so I can have a chance of becoming a great mathematician.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Time to liberate Russia from Putin and his crony oligarchs.

How many people are you willing to lose to do this? A thousand? A million? 44 million? A billion?

I believe that the West has concluded that the crony oligarchs may well be the best hope to remove Putin. Certainly adding them to the chopping block will increase the cost.

 

[MevsEinstein]

According to the person interviewed he/she (I think it was a she) said that the reason for Russia's action against Ukraine is not primarily because of any NATO expansion. Instead it is because Ukraine is a functional democracy which is/would be threatening to Russia which is an authoritarian state. If Ukraine is a functional, prosperous democracy which is looking to the West, people in Russia may start to realize that their lives could become better if Russia was a functional democracy. This reasoning makes quite much sense to me.

Putin would've invaded Ukraine long time ago if it was for this case. But he would've also invaded it long time ago if it was because of NATO expansion. I think the reason why Russia is invading Ukraine is that it would be able to connect Crimea to the Don-bass region in the invasion so Russia won't use too much energy in supplying Crimea.

 

[DennisN]

I've got a great story from Norway I read about today. It made me smile in these dire times. I'll find it and post it here soon.

Source (Swedish only): https://www.expressen.se/nyheter/norrmannen-vagrar-tanka--oligarkens-lyxyacht-ragnar/

Extracts from the article, my translation to English:

The Norwegians refuse to fuel the oligarchs luxury yacht 'Ragnar'

The former KGB agent Vladimir Strzhalkovsky, close friend to Russia's president Vladimir Putin, owns the 68 meter long luxury yacht "Ragnar" which is anchored in Narvik harbour.

The ship is out of fuel.

And the Norwegians refuse to fuel it.

– They can row it home, says the Narvik entrepreneur Sven Holmlund.

[...]

– We want to leave Narvik. We wanted to leave last week, but no distributors want to sell fuel to us, so we are stuck here, says the captain Rob Lancaster to Norwegian NRK.

[...]

Lancaster says he has contacted all fuel suppliers in Narvik.

- The local distributors just say that they won't sell to us. We explain that we are not on any sanction list and we sail under Maltese flag and we are not a Russian crew. But nobody wants to listen to us.

...

The Narvik entrepreneur Sven Holmlund is one of those who refuses to fuel the Russian-owned luxury yacht.

– Why should we help them? They can row it home, or use the sails, he says to NRK.

 

[DennisN]

Russia doesn't care about Kaliningrad as it has no resources.

Well, I think they care a lot about Kaliningrad:

Kaliningrad is home to the westernmost and the only non-freezing port of Russia and the Baltic states on the Baltic Sea. Freight and passenger ferry crossings connect the Port of Kaliningrad, and its outport, the Port of Baltiysk with Saint Petersburg, and the ports of Germany and Sweden.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad#Water

Kaliningrad Chkalovsk (also Chkalovskoye, Tchalov, or Proveren) is a naval air base in Chkalovsk, Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia located 9 kilometers northwest of Kaliningrad.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Chkalovsk

I am sure they care about Kaliningrad. And because of the military presence there, I am sure the countries around the Baltic Sea do too.

 

[MevsEinstein]

Well, I think they care a lot about Kaliningrad:Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad#WaterSource: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kaliningrad_Chkalovsk

I am sure they care about Kaliningrad. And because of the military presence there, I am sure the countries around the Baltic Sea do too.

Oops, my mistake. I heard that they wanted to give Kaliningrad off to Poland or Germany, but both refused.

 

[MevsEinstein]

So, it appears the Russian strategy is to murder children and civilian/non-combatants.

I think it is one of Russia's strategies, since you can't win a war by just killing children. In fact, Russia this way is enraging the Ukrainian population and more Ukrainians will probably be recruited to the army because of this.

 

[MevsEinstein]

I think the reason why Russia is invading Ukraine is that it would be able to connect Crimea to the Don-bass region in the invasion so Russia won't use too much energy in supplying Crimea.

Oh wait if it was for this reason than Russia would've invaded Ukraine long time ago.

 

[russ_watters]

How many people are you willing to lose to do this? A thousand? A million? 44 million? A billion?

It's a classic nuclear deterrence problem. The odds of Putin using nukes is very low, but the potential damage is very high, so it's considered not worth the risk.

A thousand dead Americans is really unlikely. It's dozens or millions and pretty much nothing in between. (and once you've hit millions it doesn't really matter anymore). So how reliable is a 40 year old, poorly maintained nuke?

I don't blame Biden for not putting a stop to the war, but I do think the risk of nuclear war is really low and I wish we could do it. I don't really think the direct engagement of forces is an automatic trigger for nuclear war because I don't consider the Cold War to have been particularly cold, and proxy wars are still wars. What matters is that we don't threaten Russia's territorial integrity.

 

[DennisN]

Superb interview, superb thinking and an important message, in my opinion, by the Former Advisor to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy (he speaks among other things about ways how to reach Russians inside Russia):

People Are 'Waking Up To The Fact That The World Has Changed A Lot' Says Fmr. Advisor
(MSNBC, Mar 16, 2022)

Former Advisor to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Igor Novikov reacts to his president’s emotional appeal to Congress and discusses what kind of military support he thinks Ukraine needs.

 

[artis]

So how reliable is a 40 year old, poorly maintained nuke?

I think those are among the highest priority things that regularly get checked from the PETN in the bridgewire detonators to tritium in secondary boosters?

I don't blame Biden for not putting a stop to the war, but I do think the risk of nuclear war is really low and I wish we could do it. I don't really think the direct engagement of forces is an automatic trigger for nuclear war because I don't consider the Cold War to have been particularly cold, and proxy wars are still wars. What matters is that we don't threaten Russia's territorial integrity.

I agree , USAF fighters sometimes fought not just Soviet Mig's over Korea but also Soviet pilots within them.
Just recently Turkey had a feud with Russia when they dared to shoot down their aircraft and Putin did not nuke Turkey for that...
Would he dare to nuke the world if US and NATO gave Ukraine better tools to defend themselves? I doubt so, it just seems like weakness and fear over Putin's rhetoric.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581

 

[valenumr]

I think those are among the highest priority things that regularly get checked from the PETN in the bridgewire detonators to tritium in secondary boosters?I agree , USAF fighters sometimes fought not just Soviet Mig's over Korea but also Soviet pilots within them.
Just recently Turkey had a feud with Russia when they dared to shoot down their aircraft and Putin did not nuke Turkey for that...
Would he dare to nuke the world if US and NATO gave Ukraine better tools to defend themselves? I doubt so, it just seems like weakness and fear over Putin's rhetoric.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-34912581

On the first point: I don't want to find out. I'm not entirely sure Russia wants to find out either.

 

[neilparker62]

Superb interview, superb thinking and an important message, in my opinion, by the Former Advisor to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy (he speaks among other things about ways how to reach Russians inside Russia):

People Are 'Waking Up To The Fact That The World Has Changed A Lot' Says Fmr. Advisor
(MSNBC, Mar 16, 2022)

Former Advisor to Ukrainian President Zelenskyy Igor Novikov reacts to his president’s emotional appeal to Congress and discusses what kind of military support he thinks Ukraine needs.

Amazingly calm and collected under unimaginably stressful circumstances. I hope musicians will take up his challenge to try and reach out to the Russian population by whatever means available.