Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[russ_watters]

sedition

There are laws about sedition for a reason.

And those laws say that sedition is about fomenting rebellion, which isn't at play here.

It is far worse to advocate/employ Russian style attacks against a media outlet than for a media outlet to spread Russian style misinformation.

 

[PeroK]

It is far worse to advocate/employ Russian style attacks against a media outlet than for a media outlet to spread Russian style misinformation.

Eventually misinformation reaches the stage where it threatens the very survival of free democracies. Ultimately Tucker Carlson may be free to say what he likes, but others are free to hate him from the very bottom of their hearts for saying it.

 

[russ_watters]

Eventually misinformation reaches the stage where it threatens the very survival of free democracies.

I don't believe that's a thing. I believe and trust in the principles of democracy and argue that you can't promote democracy with autocracy.

Ultimately Tucker Carlson may be free to say what he likes, but others are free to hate him from the very bottom of their hearts for saying it.

Yes. Just please don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

 

[hutchphd]

Ultimately Tucker Carlson may be free to say what he likes, but others are free to hate him from the very bottom of their hearts for saying it.

Which prompted my original posting which was banned.
And I was accused, by a mentor, of being a probable fan of MSNBC. Not his finest hour IMHO. Having devoutly promised not to repeat the "childish" reference, I will point to the article from the Portland ME Herald that I was in fact quoting
https://edition.pagesuite.com/popov...zBxmwyzPkz6ljUYlGMXUxxBo51IfqplauxK-jY1vy_Yvg

 

[PeroK]

Yes. Just please don't throw the baby out with the bath water.

And please don't bomb the baby out of the bath water because you believe there are chemical weapons being manufactured in an apartment building.

I don't believe that's a thing. I believe and trust in the principles of democracy and argue that you can't promote democracy with autocracy.

Democracy is not indestructible. It's been destroyed in Russia over the past 20 years. It's being destroyed in the Ukraine. And if Tucker Carlson helps bring about that destruction, then it may be the lesser of two evils to shut him up.

 

[Astronuc]

U.N. Secretary General António Guterres said Monday that the prospect of nuclear conflict is “now back within the realm of possibility” after Russian President Vladimir Putin raised the alert levels of the country’s nuclear forces last month.

In remarks to reporters, Guterres called Putin’s move a “bone-chilling development” and said further escalation of the war in Ukraine would threaten all of humanity. “It’s time to stop the horror unleashed on the people of Ukraine and get on the path of diplomacy and peace,” he said.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...realm-of-possibility-un-chief-says/ar-AAV4sW0

I'm concerned about "the path of diplomacy and peace", in which Ukraine is forced to accept defeat and give up Donbas and Crimea, and possibly east of the Dnipro (Дніпро) river and the land along the sea of Azov. Putin needs to pay dearly for his criminal acts.

Nine countries in the world have a combined nuclear arsenal containing 12,700 warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists. About 90 percent of them are held by Russia and the United States, which have about 6,000 and 5,400 warheads, respectively.

The prospect of nuclear war with Russia has deterred the United States and its NATO allies from setting up a no-fly zone in Ukraine or supplying the besieged country with fighter jets.

Nuclear deterrence works, unfortunately, in this case.

 

[artis]

A democracy and free society by definition has to allow freedom of speech as that is among the most fundamental "building blocks" of such a system. Even if that free speech might be misinformed from some.
Russia is one of the best examples along China etc as to how freedom of speech is suppressed and the political and socioeconomic ramifications of that.
I personally don't agree with everything that is said on Fox but just "banning" a certain opinion in a free country would make it less free. Just because channels like CNN are on the "good side" with respect to this war in particular doesn't mean they always present straight forward facts with regards to other issues.

I think that a free and democratic society fundamentally rests on the majority within that society being well educated and with enough critical thinking as to not fall for a demagogue. This is exactly one of the reasons why the Bolsheviks aka the Soviets killed off the "intelligentsia" of their own states, because only a fool or a careless person could think that the teachings of Lenin can work as an economic policy.

 

[russ_watters]

Democracy is not indestructible. It's been destroyed in Russia over the past 20 years.

Do you really believe Russia had a functional democracy 20 years ago?!

It's being destroyed in the Ukraine. And if Tucker Carlson helps bring about that destruction, then it may be the lesser of two evils to shut him up.

I really hope you (et al) don't realize what you're saying here. You are advocating we adopt Russia's tactics of jailing reporters for disagreeing with the government. I thought we all agreed this(as part of a whole) was one of the primary means by which Putin holds his power?

 

[artis]

Do you really believe Russia had a functional democracy 20 years ago?!

Russia was a functional anarchy in the 90's if we want to be blunt about it

And not just Russia, most former Soviet states had a tough wild time while adjusting to capitalism and democracy, oligarchy , corruption and lawlessness , I could go en length about these issues, about how it was impossible to get justice in court etc. My relatives lived through all of it

 

[Astronuc]

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — Russia’s relentless bombardment of Ukraine edged closer to central Kyiv as a series of strikes hit a residential neighborhood Tuesday, while the leaders of three European Union countries planned a bold visit to Ukraine’s capital and the number of people the war has driven from the country passed 3 million.

Shortly before dawn, large explosions thundered across Kyiv from what Ukrainian authorities said were artillery strikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said barrages hit four multi-story buildings in the city and caused dozens of deaths.

The strikes targeted a western district of Kyiv, disrupting a relative calm that returned after an initial advance by Russian forces was stopped in the early days of the war. Tuesday’s shelling ignited a huge fire in a 15-story apartment building and spurred a frantic rescue effort.

https://apnews.com/article/russia-u...iness-moscow-d357f90e5a332e10abd8e2b7c7be67c7

Sobering interview by Michael Isikoff and Mark Brzezinski, US Ambassador to Poland.
https://www.yahoo.com/news/russia-i...-invasion-could-last-for-years-200040659.html

I was looking at stats for Russian military, and they have a lot of artillery pieces and rocket launchers, which they seem to be using against civilian targets. The Russian ground forces (infantry) aren't doing so well.

Insightful interview with Russia expert Stephen Kotkin.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and-a/stephen-kotkin-putin-russia-ukraine-stalin

Russia is a weak great-power, that tries to be as strong as the west, but lacks the capability, so uses coercion to achieve and maintain a great-power status.

How do you define “the West”?

The West is a series of institutions and values. The West is not a geographical place. Russia is European, but not Western. Japan is Western, but not European. “Western” means rule of law, democracy, private property, open markets, respect for the individual, diversity, pluralism of opinion, and all the other freedoms that we enjoy, which we sometimes take for granted. We sometimes forget where they came from. But that’s what the West is. And that West, which we expanded in the nineties, in my view properly, through the expansion of the European Union and NATO, is revived now, and it has stood up to Vladimir Putin in a way that neither he nor Xi Jinping expected.

 

[PeroK]

I really hope you (et al) don't realize what you're saying here. You are advocating we adopt Russia's tactics of jailing reporters for disagreeing with the government. I thought we all agreed this(as part of a whole) was one of the primary means by which Putin holds his power?

We're not living in a perfect world. You can follow some abstract rules and/or you can follow what you believe to be right. We have to assess the risks of each course of action. Especially if it comes to war, then our surivial may depend on unity rather than freedom of speech.

There are already limitations on free speech. The crime of perjury exists even in the US. Incitement to violence. Slander and libel. False accounting. Fraud and misrepresentation. Tax evasion.

Moreover, I suspect Tucker Carlson would never allow others the freedom of speech if he and his kind ever seize control. In that sense, my opposition to him might feel like a necessary act of self-preservation. I can't close my eyes to these risks and pretend they don't exist. I'd play by the rules as long as possible, but eventually if I feel sufficiently threatened then it would be madness not to fight back.

 

[pinball1970]

We're not living in a perfect world. You can follow some abstract rules and/or you can follow what you believe to be right. We have to assess the risks of each course of action. Especially if it comes to war, then our surivial may depend on unity rather than freedom of speech.

There are already limitations on free speech. The crime of perjury exists even in the US. Incitement to violence. Slander and libel. False accounting. Fraud and misrepresentation. Tax evasion.

Moreover, I suspect Tucker Carlson would never allow others the freedom of speech if he and his kind ever seize control. In that sense, my opposition to him might feel like a necessary act of self-preservation. I can't close my eyes to these risks and pretend they don't exist. I'd play by the rules as long as possible, but eventually if I feel sufficiently threatened then it would be madness not to fight back.

I watched it to get an idea. I would have thought both sides of the house (as we say in the UK) would have been in agreement on this. Especially Tucker's side??

Russia using US right wing TV for its own propaganda is just too nuts to process.

Anyway on a different note, the refugees do have life lines if they make it here.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-60741942

and there is this.

https://www.her.ie/news/watch-itali...ud-ukrainian-children-first-day-school-550992

 

[gleem]

A neglected aspect of this thread has been the inclusion of support of the war by the Eastern Orthodox Church and its leader Patriarch Kirill. This brings an important nonpolitical aspect to the war. Russians having a strong religious history can find solace in supporting or at least looking the other way since wayward Ukraine has distanced itself from orthodoxy by adopting nontraditional western social mores. Rome's criticism of the war has been muted as if the Russian Church has some kind of nuclear weapon of its own. The mixture of politics and religion is a frightful combination as history has shown.

https://www.cnn.com/2022/03/14/europe/patriarch-kirill-putin-spiritual-battle-intl-cmd/index.html

 

[russ_watters]

We're not living in a perfect world. You can follow some abstract rules...

That's a self contradiction, but to sort it out, the 1st amendment is a rule (law), not an abstraction.

...and/or you can follow what you believe to be right.

Especially if it comes to war, then our surivial may depend on unity rather than freedom of speech.

Putin wholeheartedly agrees.

There are already limitations on free speech.

Yes, but the one put on the table here is elimination of the core function of freedom of speech. The very reason for its existence.

Moreover, I suspect Tucker Carlson would never allow others the freedom of speech if he and his kind ever seize control. In that sense, my opposition to him might feel like a necessary act of self-preservation.

An act of self contradiction. You'd hand him that power that you say you are afraid of him wielding.

I can't close my eyes to these risks and pretend they don't exist. I'd play by the rules as long as possible, but eventually if I feel sufficiently threatened then it would be madness not to fight back.

So...sedition (which by the way is what we advocate for Russia). What a tangled mess.

Democracy works because we believe in and faithfully follow its principles. Tearing down the institutions of democracy to prevent someone from tearing down the institutions of democracy is the self-sabotage way to lose democracy

 

[neilparker62]

edition.cnn.com/2022/03/14/europe/patriarch-kirill-putin-spiritual-battle-intl-cmd/index.html

Hmm - Crusades revisited with Kiev the "Russian Jerusalem" ? Well guys I'm sure we can make a plan to grant access without having to have a massive war over it.

(For the record my view of the Crusades is that ultimately prominent adversaries such as Richard the Lionheart and Saladin gained a healthy respect for each other.)

From one of Saladin's chroniclers: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Battle_of_Arsuf

"The Moslems discharged arrows at them from all sides to annoy them, and force them to charge: but in this they were unsuccessful. These men exercised wonderful self-control; they went on their way without any hurry, whilst their ships followed their line of march along the coast, and in this manner they reached their halting-place.

I would say Ukrainians are showing similar discipline and fortitude - and it's not just arrows they are having to contend with. Mr Putin should also understand that if indeed his intent is some kind of "Holy War" then attacks on soft civilian targets are completely contradictory.

 

[PeroK]

Democracy works because we believe in and faithfully follow its principles. Tearing down the institutions of democracy to prevent someone from tearing down the institutions of democracy is the self-sabotage way to lose democracy

I respect that is what you believe, but I have a different opinion that democracy may be destroyed in the US because powerful forces are undermining it from within. The institutions of democracy are being torn down in any case: witness the riots at the Capitol last year.

One difference between us is that I can see that banning Carlson is playing with fire; whereas, you don't admit any risks of allowing him and his kind to continue their attempted destruction of your country.

Perhaps your approach is right, but I don't share your certainty. I wish I did! Life is always easier if you have faith, perhaps.

 

[fresh_42]

Please leave Tucker Carlson, FOX, and domestic US politics out of this thread!

I am aware that democracy and tyranny play a central role in this current war since many believe, me included, that this is really the reason why Putin attacked Ukraine. Nevertheless, this would be Russian politics, not American.

We have currently 3,000,000 refugees, about 2,000,000 in Poland alone, a war with no ceasefire at the horizon, and obviously an unpredictable dictator, who already arrested 17,000 Russian protesters. We have severe casualties among both strike forces, and officially confirmed about 700 civilian deaths, 100 of them were children, and the actual numbers are presumably higher.

I would guess these are sufficiently many topics to discuss, even without the consequences of FOX on the US American society. I admit that this is an interesting subject, and I could add some anecdotes to it, but I am afraid that it cannot be discussed on a scientific level. So please, let's go back to current affairs in Europe.

Thanks.

 

[Office_Shredder]

officially confirmed about 700 civilian deaths, 100 of them were children, and the actual numbers are presumably higher.

I don't know who gets to "officially" confirm things, but Ukraine says 2500 civilians have died in Mariupol alone. 700 is so low I question its value as a number - it's not obviously right to within a factor of 10 even.

 

[fresh_42]

I don't know who gets to "officially" confirm things, but Ukraine says 2500 civilians have died in Mariupol alone. 700 is so low I question its value as a number - it's not obviously right to within a factor of 10 even.

600+ was the last number I read from the council in The Hague that investigates war crimes.

 

[Astronuc]

I don't know who gets to "officially" confirm things, but Ukraine says 2500 civilians have died in Mariupol alone. 700 is so low I question its value as a number - it's not obviously right to within a factor of 10 even.

We will only be able to confirm after this conflict, assuming Russia doesn't occupy that part of Ukraine, or the entire country.

 

[wrobel]

Eastern Orthodox Church and its leader Patriarch Kirill

"Eastern Orthodox Church" is a number of independent from each other Orthodox Churchs. Kirill is a leader of one of them namely of Russian Orthodox Church. And yes he supports everything what Kremlin does.

Ukraine has distanced itself from orthodoxy

There are several Christian confessions in Ukraine and there are several Orthodox confessions there. Russian Orthodox is among them today at least.

Russians having a strong religious history

Sure but present influence of religious in Russia is very overestimated. It is rather propaganda's a wishful thinking. Moreover there are Russian Orthodox priests who condemn the war

 

[neilparker62]

Sure but present influence of religious in Russia is very overestimated. It is rather propaganda's a wishful thinking. Moreover there are Russian Orthodox priests who condemn the war

If Mr Putin sees himself as on a mission to restore the glories of Tsarist Russia, it may well follow that the Russian Orthodox patriarch exerts an inordinate degree of influence over him. I only wish I could concur that this is just "propaganda's wishful thinking" ! There's a rather worrying parallel in Russian history which ironically may have played no small part in the collapse of Tsarist Russia.

"Nicholas refused to accept any reduction in the absolute power he held."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/guides/ztyk87h/revision/2

 

[russ_watters]

One difference between us is that I can see that banning Carlson is playing with fire; whereas, you don't admit any risks of allowing him and his kind to continue their attempted destruction of your country.

On the contrary, I recognize that misinformation and extremism are a threat to the functioning of democracy. When I say one is worse than the other, it doesn't mean I think the other doesn't exist. You argued your point fine and I saw no need to repeat it. Besides, 'we shouldn't ban this because there is no risk' and 'we shouldn't ban this because doing so compromises our democracy' are two very different arguments.

The dilemma we are discussing is well developed in US law/jurisprudence.

For the reverse though, I do not get the impression that people think this issue through. It seems to be a single stand-alone point: 'this is bad and must be stopped.'

 

[artis]

On the contrary, I recognize that misinformation and extremism are a threat to the functioning of democracy.

In a healthy democracy it should simply be that the majority itself rejects those threats and if need be "calls the police" on them, if the majority doesn't do that then either it
A) accepts them (fully or to a degree) or
B) it lacks the ability to know right from wrong, true from false

I personally think that the moment you need to start "cleaning" a democracy from unwanted opinions with the help of rule of law you already have a collapsing democracy and such "saving it from the extreme opinion" won't help much.

To state it differently - If a newspaper or a TV channel can cause a coup or destroy a democracy then arguably that democracy was already rotten like a tree trunk and would have fallen either way.

This is exactly why the Soviet Union was incapable of liberalization and why China rushed to introduce capitalism , because ideology for the USSR was and money for China are the only things keeping those regimes and structures together.

 

[wrobel]

Do you really believe Russia had a functional democracy 20 years ago?!

It had not. That is the problem. Moreover the majority of Russian leaders have communistic background. All the more so 20 years ago

 

[artis]

"Eastern Orthodox Church" is a number of independent from each other Orthodox Churchs. Kirill is a leader of one of them namely of Russian Orthodox Church. And yes he supports everything what Kremlin does.

And if he wouldn't he would be replaced.
I made a long post about Russia and Orthodox religion some time ago in this thread, I think I touched upon these issues.

Now I know some have complained about my lengthy posts and somewhat "top down" writing style and I already apologized for that but still I do have some topics to share that I did not earlier. Just in case someone is wondering , no I am not a Russian Orthodox believer but I know a few and believe it or not but my next door neighbors for the last 20 years are a couple in their 60's where the husband is a priest in the Local Orthodox church (Latvian) but they have strong ties to the Russian one so Kremlin's grip on all of these churches , even the ones outside Russia is definitely not negligible. I have talked about religion and country a lot with them.

Now they told me some time ago about this beautiful new cathedral that Kremlin built for the church goers.
Instead of me writing down what I know about it, I found a great article , I highly suggest everyone go read it, you will be amazed and possibly appalled and everything else in between...

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...russian-national-identity-military-disneylandA equally great video , short and precise

I have studied Bible somewhat in the past, and I can tell that what Kremlin has done is an absolute perversion from a religious/faith perspective, not only they try to combine religion with state (which is arguably one of the earliest mistakes understood by modern western countries) but they have also managed to combine Communism and Marxist/Leninist ideology which incorporates militant atheism with Christianity - the very ideology most Marxist states in history including the USSR tried to eradicate and destroy by all means. For those with an open mind this has to cause deep irony and also sadness.

Not a fan of VICE but they tend to have good bits and this 6 minute video is definitely one of them,

 

[Astronuc]

Moscow threatens Western companies with arrests, seizures: report
https://www.france24.com/en/live-ne...estern-companies-with-arrests-seizures-report
Russia has seized western commercial aircraft and threatens seize properties of western companies, and arrest anyone found to be critical of Putin or the Russian war in Ukraine.

Russia is seizing Western-built airliners while sanctions block parts, maintenance, and support
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...of-lessor-planes-poses-risk-passengers-2022-3

Meanwhile, the cost to Ukraine for three weeks of war is estimated to be $500 billion, according to one headline.From the NY Times (March 15, 2022), Russia Deploys a Mystery Munition in Ukraine
It appears that they Iskander-M missile system fires a decoy to confuse antimissile defenses.
https://news.yahoo.com/russia-deploys-mystery-munition-ukraine-114716254.html

American intelligence officials have discovered that the barrage of ballistic missiles Russia has fired into Ukraine contain a surprise: decoys that trick air-defense radars and fool heat-seeking missiles.

The devices are each about 1 foot long, shaped like a dart and white with an orange tail, according to an American intelligence official. They are released by the Iskander-M short-range ballistic missiles that Russia is firing from mobile launchers across the border, the official said, when the missile senses that it has been targeted by air defense systems.

Each is packed with electronics and produces radio signals to jam or spoof enemy radars attempting to locate the Iskander-M, and contains a heat source to attract incoming missiles. The official, who was not authorized to speak publicly about intelligence matters, described the devices on the condition of anonymity.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...ke-darts-theyre-russias-new-weapon/ar-AAV5RjC

 

[gleem]

"Eastern Orthodox Church" is a number of independent from each other Orthodox Churchs.

Yes, I should have been more specific.

There are several Christian confessions in Ukraine and there are several Orthodox confessions there. Russian Orthodox is among them today at least.

I meant in the generic meaning of orthodoxy. The Russian Orthodox church is not very progressive.

Sure but present influence of religious in Russia is very overestimated. It is rather propaganda's a wishful thinking. Moreover there are Russian Orthodox priests who condemn the war

@artis I just read your post-1106 and yes I missed your discourse on the Russian Orthodox Church probably because it was hidden in one of your posts that was TLDR. When a topic draws so much interest and has so many posts time becomes an issue and I cut corners. Sorry about that.

I was in the process of writing this post and was interrupted before reading your post but I will continue.

Russian governments have used religion for their purpose for centuries until the Bolshevik Revolution when it was suppressed. Since the USSR breakup religion has risen within the population only to be used again for the purpose of the State (Putin).

Sure in every religion you have some that do not support the current ecclesiastical views or policies however the laity will mostly seek guidance from and follow the direction from the head of the religion. They are usually too few.

So Patriarch Kirill says they need to reel in those wayward souls. Isn't that a good thing even if you have to kill people to do it? Well, supposedly the sanctity of human life is held paramount by the Russian Orthodox Church. I guess there must have been an asterisk on that particular dogma, stating that it is no longer valid if it does not convenient.

 

[jsgruszynski]

I'm really worried that the situation in Ukraine could result in a war between the US and Russia. Any thoughts?

Worry about what you can change; ignore what you can NOT change. Otherwise you will drive yourself crazy.

I happen to work for a Taiwanese company. You've probably read that "China eyes Ukraine as example for invasion of Taiwan" or similar. I can't control what China does or does not do so it does me no good to worry about it - I mostly work as if it would never happen. That's the only rational and sane path.

I grew up during the Cold War. There were friends of mine in elementary and high school who psyched themselves out about nuclear war and just dropped out of everything. As it turned out, that worst case scenario never happened (obviously) and their panic pretty much ruined their lives. A few years I had a high paying engineering job and I had one of those guys end up as my waiter at a restaurant. Nothing wrong with being a waiter but he was on my group of "nerds going places" at one time but he threw that away. Hopefully his had a good life but he could have had more if he hadn't let his panic take control.

 

[256bits]

This is the worry some have here in the Baltics, what would happen if Russia decided to roll in and take some small part first

they won't roll in.

After the role in Ukraine, would Russia( Putin ) have enough gumption and more importantly munitions able to carry out another endeavour. The stockpile of arms is not infinite. If it is true that they have lost a considerable amount of forces and weaponary - in the $B. Why risk defense of your whole country for very little to gain.
It has also been seen that the command structure of the Russion forces lacks the art of planning, somewhere within, maybe all the way up to the top.

I think this speculation, of nuclear war, invading other countries along its frontier, Russia being unstoppable is just what it is.

If for whatever reason NATO mumbles the response or fails to respond then NATO is effectively dead and can disband altogether

A profound statement, with insight.
Too too bad NATO can't soul search a bit more.

It looks dead already.
When you have guys like Trudeau, when Zelinsky came to talk to the Canadian parliament, state that 'we are there for you, and you have shown us in your steadfast and unwavering battle for democracy, the fight for justice is never over " ( parphrasing by the way - not his actual words ).

In other words, you fight the battle Ukraine, while we sit back, talk a lot, while your country is destroyed and people die and suffer, and say oh the horror of it all. But look, our country is still nice and shiny.

Since you are so close, yes it must be unnerving.