Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[DennisN]

Recent interesting input from former Russian Foreign Minister Andrei Kozyrev, about recent cracks in the Kremlin propaganda machine, Putin's state of mind etc., well worth watching as usual, I think :

Kremlin Vet: To Combat 'Barbaric' Putin Remember He’s A 'Sly Fox' Who Wants To Seem Scary & Unstable
(MSNBC, Mar 16, 2022)

 

[artis]

they won't roll in.

After the role in Ukraine, would Russia( Putin ) have enough gumption and more importantly munitions able to carry out another endeavour. The stockpile of arms is not infinite.

I agree, not to sound like a selfish person but Ukraine is taking the hit so that we don't have to , at least for the foreseeable future.

It looks dead already.
When you have guys like Trudeau, when Zelinsky came to talk to the Canadian parliament, state that 'we are there for you, and you have shown us in your steadfast and unwavering battle for democracy, the fight for justice is never over " ( parphrasing by the way - not his actual words ).

Well I think given how much Europe is dependent on Russian energy , they have given a surprisingly good and strong reaction to Russia. They should have done it earlier when the previous attacks like the ones in 2014 took place but it seems few really believed all of that back then, and doing business as a priority.

But I agree Europe could do more. Every Ukrainian interview I watch from Zelensky to Zelensky's janitor they all say the same thing - we are ready to fight just give us the weapons and supplies.
I mean it's not like there is a shortage of Russian made weapons we could gather up and send to Ukraine and continue to also give them the seemingly great performing western MANPADS etc.But I share your view on folks like Trudeau, I too personally dislike him, even more so because it's people like him that eventually make up the decisive strength and fast response of NATO. And it's people like we here that rely upon that response.

 

[artis]

A good article from Harvard review, about 2.5 years old but not long and one can compare what is said then and how the situation looks now. If anything then maybe this Ukraine crisis will be the necessary wake up call to NATO, sort of like marriage counseling to regain that "flame" that once united.

https://hir.harvard.edu/empty-meetings-and-broken-promises-how-nato-is-failing-to-do-its-job/If anything we here in Europe are already paying our "fair share" to keep Russia in check. Gas is now 2 euro per liter. For the folks in US that would be about 2.2 dollars for 0.25 gallons of gas, or a quarter.

It's good the spring is here and I have a hobby to cycle to places... I think I will have more workouts from now on.

 

[fresh_42]

If anything we here in Europe are already paying our "fair share" to keep Russia in check. Gas is now 2 euro per liter. For the folks in US that would be about 2.2 dollars for 0.25 gallons of gas, or a quarter.

Which is a bit strange. Brent is currently around 100$ the barrel and it has been this high many times before and the gas prices weren't that high back then.

I saw an interview with a Ukrainian mother yesterday. She said: "My mother fled 1941 from Kyiv to St. Petersburg to escape Hitler. Now I found refuge from Putin in Germany. Do you see the irony?"

 

[artis]

Which is a bit strange. Brent is currently around 100$ the barrel and it has been this high many times before and the gas prices weren't that high back then.

I'm not a market expert nor a financial analyst, nor have I had the time and motivation to research the current trends but I suspect that it's at least part speculation. Everybody is just saying "ahh you know there's a war" and therefore I double the price even if war doesn't affect the product the seller is selling by any means.
US is better off in this regard since they can (I think IIRC) supply their own oil, Europe on the other hand cannot, nor can we get our gas so Russian sanctions are biting us as hard as the Russians quite frankly.
Now it's just a gamble of who can hold on the longest. You know like that game Innuendo Bingo with water in your mouth. Only instead of anecdotes your being hit with a hammer...
Inflation here is just climbing , it started back with Covid and now it just switched to second gear, no end in sight. God damn that fool in Moscow, someone make him pay... oh wait! I'm already doing that!

I saw an interview with a Ukrainian mother yesterday. She said: "My mother fled 1941 from Kyiv to St. Petersburg to escape Hitler. Now I found refuge from Putin in Germany. Do you see the irony?"

Like a pendulum , swings back and forth.

 

[Mayhem]

We like to think that politicians are dumb, but I think most of them are aware that a full scale war would be cause destruction of a proportion we have yet not seen. Putin probably realizes this, which is why he is so confident in his Ukraine campaign.

 

[Rive]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.
By May that'll be out of steam too.
From Russian side, this war is already lost.

 

[pinball1970]

Better news

"Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky says peace talks with Russia are beginning to "sound more realistic"

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/world-europe-60746557

 

[pinball1970]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.
By May that'll be out of steam too.
From Russian side, this war is already lost.

Hopefully Russia agree and are thinking what a victory or loss in two months would look like.
The negotiating table will look like the better option with that in mind.
Hopefully.

 

[Astronuc]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.

I heard this morning that Putin has called on forces from across Russia, and perhaps more professional/skilled.

Meanwhile, in Mariupol. According to Ukrainian officials, Russian forces have taken and occupied a hospital and taken hundreds of medical staff and patients as hostages.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60757133
https://www.foxnews.com/world/mariupol-hospital-occupied-russian-forces-report
https://www.healthleadersmedia.com/...tal-hold-patients-and-staff-hostage-ukrainian

U.S. Senate unanimously condemns Putin as war criminal​

https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-senate-unanimously-condemns-putin-war-criminal-2022-03-15/

 

[Vanadium 50]

more forces are on the way

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

U.S. Senate unanimously condemns Putin as war criminal

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

 

[fresh_42]

I hope this is true:

 

[russ_watters]

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base. And they're neighbors; no makeshift airbase or 24 hour missions from Missouri.

[Edit] Well, maybe this is due to the nature of the threat and goal. Russia wants to have Ukraine so it can't just destroy it. And Ukraine seems to be using mostly ground infantry/guerilla warfare (effectively) which is harder to defeat from the air than tank vs tank and plane.

 

[Astronuc]

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base.

Apparently, the Russian air forces lack 'smart' bombs, so they have to approach target straight and relatively low. The Ukrainians have Stinger missiles. The Russians pilots are avoiding targets, hence the artillery (10-50 miles) and rockets from 200-300 miles, i.e., from Russia.

Weapons like the 310-mile range Iskander missile or the BM-30 Smerch can conduct strikes at operational depth

Feb 16, 2022 - https://www.businessinsider.com/russia-ukraine-war-would-be-artillery-and-missile-showdown-2022-2

Recognizing Ukraine desperately needed more assets to neutralize Russian artillery, the US reportedly donated to Ukraine from 2015-2019 13 AN/TPQ-36 Firefinder and 20 newer AN/TQP-53 Quick Reaction counterbattery radars.

The latter can detect rockets out to 37 miles (60 km) away, and shells, 21 miles away (36 km) while scanning across a 90 degree arc, or out to shorter distance in 180 degree scan modes.

https://www.thedefensepost.com/2021/12/08/russia-longest-range-howitzer/

The Coalition’s (Koalitsiya-SV) firing range of 70-80 km (43-50 miles) is more than double that of the 2S19 at 30 km (18.6 miles). The gun’s range is on par with the American Extended Range Cannon Artillery, currently under development. The weapon reportedly fired its longest shot this year at 43.5 miles (70 km) using an M982A1 Excalibur guided artillery shell.

https://www.nammo.com/story/base-bleed-and-rocket-assist/

“Outgunned and outranged”
Russia’s BM-21 Grad systems are certainly not the only ones fielded by the former superpower. The BM-21s have an effective range of 20-45kms (depending on the rockets used). Russia also has access to a large number of other artillery systems:

• 9A52-4 “Tornado” MLRS: up to 90km range
• BM-30 “Smerch” MLRS: 70 to 90km range
• 2S7 “Pion” 203mm heavy artillery: 37,5 to 55km range
• TOS-1 220mm MLRS and thermobaric weapon: 0.5 to 6km range
• 2S19 Msta 152.4mm howitzer: 45 to 62km range
• 2S35 “Koalitsiya-SV” 152.4 or 155mm artillery: 40 to 80km range.

After Russia’s aggression against Georgia in 2008, Ukraine in 2014 and the operations in Syria, NATO has once again been forced to recognize the country as a possible adversary. A thorough analysis of the country’s military capabilities show that NATO would not necessarily fare well in a conflict. A series of war games conducted by the RAND corporation in 2014 and 2015 concluded that NATO could not successfully defend its most exposed members in the Baltics. Artillery – in large numbers – with a much longer range than its western counterparts, advanced aerial defense systems (like the S-400), advanced, well-equipped and numerous armored forces, and extensive electronic warfare capabilities were among the factors giving Russian military the edge.

 

[phinds]

That's only a small part of Russia's problem. It actually makes their logistics problem worse.

I think you're right in the long run but it could give them a brief short-term boost.

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

No one has said don't try the guy, we'd just like to try him and THEN hang him

 

[Astronuc]

Congress shall pass no bill of attainder.

True, hence a resolution, not an act or bill. They can bring a case to the International Criminal Court. On the other hand, the UN and ICC seem rather ineffective in such matters.

Better yet, the US and EU should be sending aircraft to Ukraine, in addition to arms, munitions and missiles.

 

[fresh_42]

What surprised me most about the invasion's lack of progress is the apparent lack of significant air combat. A pilot you can feed and airplane refuel back at his base. And they're neighbors; no makeshift airbase or 24 hour missions from Missouri.

They have destroyed enough already. Thousands of buildings with hundreds of apartments each have been destroyed, schools, hospitals, and kindergartens, too. I think it is more a consequence of the complete absence of logistics. I think they lost their plans on day three and everything since then is improvisation.

 

[gmax137]

What surprised me

What surprises me is, we have not seen the "box truck full of fertilizer" on the streets near the Kremlin.

 

[artis]

What surprises me is, we have not seen the "box truck full of fertilizer" on the streets near the Kremlin.

You mean a truck similar to the one that blew up the government building in Oklahoma in 1995?

 

[DennisN]

More cracks in the Kremlin propaganda machine(!):

Russia's state TV hit by stream of resignations (BBC, 16th March 2022)​

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60763494

When Marina Ovsyannikova burst into Russian living rooms on Monday's nightly news, denouncing the war in Ukraine and propaganda around it, her protest highlighted a quiet but steady stream of resignations from Russia's tightly controlled state-run TV.

[...]

 

[DennisN]

They have destroyed enough already. Thousands of buildings with hundreds of apartments each have been destroyed, schools, hospitals, and kindergartens, too. I think it is more a consequence of the complete absence of logistics. I think they lost their plans on day three and everything since then is improvisation.

I agree in principle, but I have regretfully a darker twist on this. I was actually thinking of writing a post about this in this thread quite some time ago, but I did not want to do it, because it was so dark.

I have a feeling that the improvised "strategy" that evolved (which is horrendously barbaric) has been to intently target civilians and civilian infastructure more or less at random. And the objective with this is to force a partial (or complete) surrender by spreading terror. In short: so that the civilian plights and fears are too much for both the civilians and military to endure witnessing and handling.

I started to think along these dark lines after they attacked the nuclear site. After that I really started to try to think what their "strategy" could be because it did not make sense to me at all.

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

Edit 1:

I should also add that I sincerely hope atrocities will be thoroughly investigated, and prosecutions will be made in the future if possible.

Edit 2:

Correction: I did not start to think along these lines after the attack on the nuclear site. It was when I understood they were shelling the negotiated evacuation corridors. That really made me wonder what in the world they hope that would achieve. The only conclusion I came to was that they were using the civilians as pawns in a really cruel "game". And they've done this with evacuation corridors multiple times according to various reports.

 

[artis]

I agree in principle, but I have regretfully a darker twist on this. I was actually thinking of writing a post about this in this thread quite some time ago, but I did not want to do it, because it was so dark.

I have a feeling that the improvised "strategy" that evolved (which is horrendously barbaric) has been to intently target civilians and civilian infastructure more or less at random. And the objective with this is to force a partial (or complete) surrender by spreading terror. In short: so that the civilian plights and fears are too much for both the civilians and military to endure witnessing and handling.

I started to think along these dark lines when they attacked the nuclear site. After that I really started to try to think what their "strategy" was because it did not make sense to me.

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

Hard to say but I doubt that. In this case they gain nothing from such a strategy, apart from revenge and destruction. Their original strategy to the best of what experts have said so far and what also sounds reasonable was to take Ukraine within days before anyone would manage to make a strong enough campaign and sanctions against Russia and then "come to the table" from a position of power.
Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I myself definitely think that it wasn't among their goals to try to blow up a functioning nuclear reactor in a 6 reactor power plant that is the largest NPP in terms of MWe in Europe. That would be an idiotic strategy from any point of view. + Ukraine is close to "home" not just ethnically but physically, Russians had to use special airplanes and spray cloud forming aerosols to contain the particle contamination that traveled from Chernobyl towards Moscow over Belarus back in 1986.
I doubt anyone in Moscow wants that.

 

[DennisN]

Their original strategy to the best of what experts have said so far and what also sounds reasonable was to take Ukraine within days before anyone would manage to make a strong enough campaign and sanctions against Russia and then "come to the table" from a position of power.
Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I agree with this. But things did not go as planned. The first thrust against Kyiv was easily fended off by the Ukrainians. And then Putin does what he always have done: upping the ante.

Now they seem to have to come to the table from a weakened position.

I agree with this also. But maybe Putin has a different worldview. I really don't know. I've more or less stopped trying to think about what Putin thinks or believes at this moment, it seems so chaotic and maybe not quite in touch with reality.

 

[hutchphd]

Even now when I'm writing about it, I hesitate to post it . But regretfully, what I wrote above is my personal analysis of the improvised "strategy".

This is not nerws. I think there is a glaring counterexample from WWII when the Luftwaffe shifted towards civilian targetting of London . I am not a student of war but I believe that is considered a counterproductive blunder and I believe the Ukraine people may be just as remarkable as were the Brits when it really counted. Personally I am humbled by both.

 

[BillTre]

Putin already has a history of destroying cities to attain goals his military is not able reach with normal military ways.
Examples of this are Grozny and Aleppo.

Nothing new to see here, just easier to see it, being in Europe and remaining integrated into the internet.

 

[Bandersnatch]

Yeah, it's the same strategy as in Syria. Which is why I don't share the optimism about Ukrainian chances some people express. The surprise push has failed, so now it's back to slow and steady. Pounding cities into submission like so many times before.

 

[BillTre]

This is the one military thing that Russia has shown itself capable of doing.
Beyond that they seem hopeless.

From what I have read, they have huge supply problems on many levels.
Can't get supplies much beyond their railroad in Russia. Don't have enough trucks. Running out of gas, food, ammo.
Truck aren't well maintained, their tires are failing. They don't have many replacement tires. Maybe not for 6 months. Truck attrition.
They can't buy the parts they need to make more of what they are using up. Electronics for smart bombs and rockets are not going to be coming from external non-Russian sources (except maybe China). They are using up their supplies of these with little hope of replacing them.
Their highly flaunted new weapons are not so good: new encrypted cell phones require the cell towers they have been destroying in order to work, their pilots are using commercial grade GPSs for navigation. Using unencrypted phones has been suggested as a reason they are losing so many generals.

Vs. the Ukrainians probably have more stingers and javelins than the Russians have airplanes and tanks.
The Ukrainian supply lines seem to be working OK in many cases. (Some EU leaders went to Kiev on a train).

It would not surprise me if the Ukrainians snip off some of the Russian supply lines end up taking whatever units were at its end. (I get the impression Putin does not want to retreat).

 

[PeroK]

Right now, the reserves an the logistics of the Russian forces can't keep up with their losses. In the next week or two we may expect some territories being re-captured by Ukraine.
It's just that more forces are on the way, so a new wave of assault may came at the beginning of April.
By May that'll be out of steam too.
From Russian side, this war is already lost.

I don't dare to think or even hope that. The Russian Parliament and Military have followed him this far, why not follow him all the way? It will take some internal coup to overthrow him. That's seems like a random event that could happen tomorrow or never happen.

The Russians are now so steeped in blood that it's difficult to see a way back for them. They may decide that they may as well keep going to the bitter end, wherever that might eventually be. I wish I could feel more optimistic.

 

[BillTre]

 

[BillTre]

This was recorded about a year ago by former Russian MP Nevzorov.

His oppinion of the current Russian state is low, but his sarcasm is quite elevated.