Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[anorlunda]

Putin was definitely more popular here than Trump has been on every single level, but especially trust. Whom would you buy from in such a case?

Politics has normally not much to say when it comes to economic decisions, and any interferences are not really appreciated.

Those two statements are contradictory.

 

[Frabjous]

The mistake was the lack of diversification, or the wish to see its necessity. And this necessity changed dramatically in February, not earlier.

How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine adversely impact Germany?

 

[fresh_42]

How does the Russian invasion of Ukraine adversely impact Germany?

Besides the shift in our energy supply, i.e. that we have to build an LNG terminal? Mainly that we have 25,000 new children in school.

 

[fresh_42]

Those two statements are contradictory.

No, they are not! Private businessmen buy whom they can trust. You can trust Russia in economical terms, whether you like that fact or not. But you can never know when an American president decides to impact free trade.

 

[Frabjous]

Besides the shift in our energy supply, i.e. that we have to build an LNG terminal? Mainly that we have 25,000 new children in school.

Those sound like economic impacts. Given that Russian gas is now discounted, isn’t it in Germany’s economic interests to start Nord Stream 2 to give it monopsonistic power over Russia.

 

[fresh_42]

Those sound like economic reasons. Given that Russian gas is now discounted, isn’t it in Germany’s economic interests to start Nord Stream 2 to give it monopsonistic power over Russia.

Sure, but at the moment this would not be politically realizable. We joined the international sanctions, so usual business has no choice.

 

[Frabjous]

Sure, but at the moment this would not be politically realizable. We joined the international sanctions, so usual business has no choice.

But why has Germany joined international sanctions? It negatively impacts Germany’s economy?

 

[fresh_42]

But why has Germany joined international sanctions? It negatively impacts Germany’s economy?

Good question. I guess the alternative would have been even more damaging.

 

[Frabjous]

Good question. I guess the alternative would have been even more damaging.

If Russian had been as successful with this operation as it was in 2014, do you believe that it should be business as usual between Russia and Germany?

 

[fresh_42]

If Russian had been as successful with this operation as it was in 2014, do you believe that it should be business as usual between Russia and Germany?

No, of course not. I firmly believe that even the annexation of Crimea could and should have been solved with a simple contract for the Russian marine base. I mean, the UK kept HK for nearly a hundred years or so by legal means. I even think, that Ukrainian membership in NATO wouldn't have been any threat to Russia, although this may be borderline.

However, this war cannot be justified by any arguments. It is yesterday's thinking and completely unnecessary and even more, tragic! Russia should get grown up. But that is apparently harder than thought after centuries of oppression, be it zsaristic or stalinistic.

 

[Frabjous]

Russia should get grown up.

So now we have a reason beyond economics.

You have previously stated

I cannot see any bad decisions made by Merkel.

and your reasons have been economic. How do you judge Merkel’s decisions in the light that Russia needs to grow up?

 

[fresh_42]

So now we have a reason beyond economics.

Unfortunately.

... and your reasons have been economic. How do you judge Merkel’s decisions in the light that Russia needs to grow up?

It is not anyone's business to interfere with other nations in my opinion, including Russia. One might not oversee that Putin changed through time. A person who is in charge for more than 20 years starts to believe his own fairy tales and what servants dare to tell him. He is a child of the cold war. I even agree with Biden that it would be better if he leaves office - one way or another. But that is a Russian matter, not mine.

Russians have constantly been told that they are a great nation during Soviet times. So anyone who promises to be one again is apparently welcome.

 

[Frabjous]

It is not anyone's business to interfere with other nations in my opinion, including Russia.

I think that is a cop out. First, there is no governing authority for nations, so it is how nations interact with each other which determines global norms. Second, I would guess that you have no issues with interfering for economic gain.

 

[fresh_42]

Second, I would guess that you have no issues with interfering for economic gain.

I do.

 

[Frabjous]

I would argue that it would have been in Germany’s interest to help Russia grow up before it invaded another country; therefore Merkel made the mistake of overprioritizing economics. I am not talking regime change. I believe Putin is rational and miscalculated because the West did not send the right messages.

 

[Astronuc]

It is not anyone's business to interfere with other nations in my opinion, including Russia. One might not oversee that Putin changed through time.

Ideally, that is the case. On the other hand, nations certainly do influence and interfere with each other's internal and external affairs, e.g., all those proxy wars over the past several decades, not to mention the full scale global conflicts, and numerous internal conflicts, and dealings with preferred dictators (not just Putin), . . .

I seem to recall recently a matter of election interference.

But, Putin was a relatively good neighbor to NATO, until he wasn't, and he certainly has been a rather poor neighbor for Ukraine and Belarus.

I would argue that it would have been in Germany’s interest to help Russia grow up before it invaded another country;

It can't be just Germany, but entire EU, US, and rest of the world.

Some background reference material:
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/ancient-history-documentaries.1013243/post-6612340

 

[Oldman too]

We have serious concerns about fracking.

Concerns "well" placed ! (Pun intended)

 

[pinball1970]

There were several things that struck me in this article. One is that Germany gets 55% of its natural gas imports from Russia. Where was even the most basic contingency planning? I'm not the most politically knowledgeable person, but even I've been calling Putin "the first great dictator of the 21st Century" for the past decade. How did Germany end up almost totally dependent on the great dictator for their energy supplies? How does that happen? Did the security services not know what he was like? Did the German government ignore them? It puts Merkel in an entirely new light!

It's barely credible!

Yes I was surprised also. Warnings from 2018 just passed me by, I think we just saw this a sabre rattling at the time. Germany gets of sizable chunk of their energy from Russia? So what? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-pipeline-idUSKBN1K10VI
Now it matters and has become a bargaining chip in Putin's campaign. So far he has not switched off the pipeline to Germany and the rest of Europe but he could do.
He will not get his dollars and Euros if he does though.

 

[BillTre]

Don't make the mistake of believing anything Putin says, without some kind of independent confirmation.

 

[Isopod]

"Speculation that Vladimir Putin is seriously ill has mounted after a report claimed he has been under near-constant monitoring by a cancer surgeon"

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/01/puti...ncer-doctor-amid-health-speculation-16388716/

 

[Filip Larsen]

So far he has not switched off the pipeline to Germany and the rest of Europe but he could do.
He will not get his dollars and Euros if he does though.

Looks like he is trying to get his roubles instead (my appologies if this now day old news already has been mentioned here):
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60945248

 

[DennisN]

Russian officials have accused Ukraine of attacking a fuel depot inside Russia:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/01/europe/russia-ukraine-belgorod-fire-intl/index.html

Ukrainian officials responded: "Yeah, that was us, bud." /s

(I've heard different stories from different places, see below)

Some morale boosting for us who support Ukraine...

An interview regarding the attack on a fuel depot inside Russia (which may or may not have been done by Ukraine*) with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (man, he plays it so very cool, I'm impressed):

Amanpour asks top Ukrainian official about strike in Russia. See his answer (CNN, Apr 1, 2022)


* By commenting like this, I think the Ukrainians are extracting the maximum out of this incident. Very clever. If they didn't do the attack they vaguely hint it could have been them (by the way he talks). If they did the attack, they very calmly deny it without strong language. It's putting uncertainty and doubt into Russian minds.

Edit: And I follow a Swedish military blog which has some good contributors in the comments, and they were confused by this attack. Some there think it was the Ukrainians, some think it was a false flag operation by Russia and some think it could have been Russians sabotaging themselves (due to a lack of will to fight).

And some clever comments on youtube under the video:

"Not a strike, it was a special fuel operation"
"RIA/TASS: Our brave fuel tanks destroyed multiple enemy's rockets with fire and protected our great country!"
"Maybe it was an April Fuel Joke"

 

[fresh_42]

The latest news here says all that is needed is an account at the Gazprom bank. You load the account with Euro, the bank converts it into Rubel and the business is financed according to the rules. Not really something to worry about.

FYI: States do not buy gas from states. Private distributors buy gas from private companies! Politics is only responsible to set up the framework. Please distinguish between the frame and the decisions made within the available frame. This is a huge difference. At least in free societies.

 

[artis]

The latest news here says all that is needed is an account at the Gazprom bank. You load the account with Euro, the bank converts it into Rubel and the business is financed according to the rules. Not really something to worry about.

FYI: States do not buy gas from states. Distributors buy gas from private companies! Politics is only responsible to set up the framework. Please distinguish between the frame and the decisions made within the available frame. This is a huge difference. At least in free societies.

It might be true on the German side, but realistically on the Russian side Gazprom is just an extension to Kremlin.
I haven't done my research on the German part I can only suspect some former politicians having a stake at the Nordstream pipeline but on the Russian side the pipe is a political tool of soft power.

I think it's a rule of thumb that every large project outside of Russia and China that is made and controlled by Russia and China (even if it's their private business sector doing so) is effectively a soft power arm of their government.Not sure about Germany but Russia so far has threatened to stop gas supplies to Ukraine and other countries based on politics. They have made countless import bans on products from Baltics every time they don't like something politically so any larger business with Russia is inevitably political in nature.

 

[PeroK]

The latest news here says all that is needed is an account at the Gazprom bank. You load the account with Euro, the bank converts it into Rubel and the business is financed according to the rules. Not really something to worry about.

FYI: States do not buy gas from states. Private distributors buy gas from private companies! Politics is only responsible to set up the framework. Please distinguish between the frame and the decisions made within the available frame. This is a huge difference. At least in free societies.

This is not the reality. Governments are fully involved in major infrastructure projects - airports, roads, gas pipelines etc. All of these require permission and support from the Government and cannot be simply private enterprises.

It seems to me you have tied yourself in knots trying to defend the indefensible. The majority of Germans, I suspect, are asking why they have no option but to fund the Russian war machine at this time, while offering humanitarian assistance to its victims.

You must be in a small minority who can't see that there are serious questions to answer about how Germany got itself caught in this situation.

 

[fresh_42]

This is not the reality. Governments are fully involved in major infrastructure projects - airports, roads, gas pipelines etc. All of these require permission and support from the Government and cannot be simply private enterprises.

QED. Framework and economic decisions. You distinguish between infrastructure and the good that uses it, but you do not distinguish between those who provide the infrastructure and those who use it! Ridiculous.

It seems to me you have tied yourself in knots trying to defend the indefensible.

I do not see it that way. It appears to me that you confuse multiple levels of the economy and form it in a way that suits you. Regardless of any disturbing facts.

The majority of Germans, I suspect, are asking why they have no option but to fund the Russian war machine at this time, while offering humanitarian assistance to its victims.

The majority of Germans want a cheap and reliable gas supply. And Russia is the cheapest provider. And the one who can be trusted most. I know you do not want to hear this since it doesn't match your prejudices. Well, personal opinions and economic facts are not necessarily the same thing.

You must be in a small minority of can't see that there are serious questions to answer about how Germany got itself caught in this situation.

I already answered this. Those who can read have a clear advantage. "This situation" is basically due to third-party participants, and changed political assessments. On a purely bilateral level, there is nothing wrong with the deal. Business always funds questionable activities. The list is long, very long. China, Saudi Arabia, USA, etc. It wasn't foreseeable until February that the political landscape changed so significantly. At least not from our point of view.

 

[artis]

The majority of Germans want a cheap and reliable gas supply. And Russia is the cheapest provider.

I think this is true. Germans so far have not felt guilt over something which they have little control over (Russian aggression) truth be told. Sure buying Russian gas after February 24 looks really bad from a moral standpoint there is no denying that but changing gas supplies takes years so if Germany wanted to not just feel free economically while using the cheapest safest provider but also factor in potential future moral issues they should have started diversifying years ago and the recent closure of the nuke plants definitely did not age well.

That being said I think it was important for Germany to join the sanctions as Germany is a key EU player. So it's good that Germany made the hard and economically troubling but necessary step. Arguably if they had failed to do so the criticism would be more than well placed

Here is a short but interesting article about how Germans think, written just two weeks before Ukraine invasion
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/why-germany-behaves-the-way-it-does/

There was also very little support for military backing of Ukraine within Germany back in 2014. This is in line with the conclusions reached in the previous article.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...d-little-support-for-military-aid-to-ukraine/

 

[pinball1970]

I think this is true. Germans so far have not felt guilt over something which they have little control over (Russian aggression) truth be told. Sure buying Russian gas after February 24 looks really bad from a moral standpoint there is no denying that but changing gas supplies takes years so if Germany wanted to not just feel free economically while using the cheapest safest provider but also factor in potential future moral issues they should have started diversifying years ago and the recent closure of the nuke plants definitely did not age well.

Here is a short but interesting article about how Germans think, written just two weeks before Ukraine invasion
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/why-germany-behaves-the-way-it-does/

There was also very little support for military backing of Ukraine within Germany back in 2014. This is in line with the conclusions reached in the previous article.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...d-little-support-for-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Yes this did not happen over night and this is where we are now. Like it or hate it this is globalization, resources over there and we need them over here.
If it turns out your supplier is doing something questionable then simply swap, say from Russia to Saudi? They have an excellent human rights record...
I don't think there is much point in saying that was a bad move, if you have a look in the purchase ledger you may be surprised where you sources your oranges from.
Putin has gone rogue and whilst always a possibility it was probably very unlikely when the papers were signed.
To this extent anyway. Everything I have read this morning suggests Friday came and went and the gas is still on.

 

[fresh_42]

What actually changed is, that gas all of a sudden is considered a political weapon. This is an entirely new role for what was once simply energy. Only with this changed point of view, it is morally questionable. Hence they are actually two different things. Mixing them up might be comfortable, however, it is factually wrong.

We strictly oppose the death penalty. Why don't you request stopping to make businesses with the US, since it funds a morally questionable system from our point of view?

 

[PeroK]

To this extent anyway. Everything I have read this morning suggests Friday came and went and the gas is still on.

The bills are not necessarily due on 1 April. Also, @Rive may be right that they'll reach a compromise where both can claim their demands have been met.