Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[DennisN]

News should not be confused with history.

Of course. And I didn't say it was history. But the result is obviously the (preliminary) conclusion, with sources present on the Wiki pages ("Ukrainian victory[1][2][3][4][5][6]"). Also, of course there could come a second Kyiv offensive and second Kyiv battle, but according to the sources I follow, this does not seem likely to happen soon at least.

I've also checked with e.g. the EuroMaidan Press:

Russo-Ukrainian war, day 38: Ukraine recaptures large swathes of terrain near Kyiv as Russia focuses on Ukraine’s east (EuroMaidan Press, 2022/04/02)
https://euromaidanpress.com/2022/04/02/russo-ukrainian-war-latest-news-april-2/

 

[Office_Shredder]

While not trying to be pro-Russian/anti-Ukranian, I do not believe Wikipedia can make these determinations. While it might turn out to be true, we do not know what is going to happen tomorrow (literally). These things are determined after a suitable amount of time has past. News should not be confused with history.

I don't agree with this. I mean, Wikipedia does not get to make the determination of whether Ukraine won, but Ukraine and Russia do. All the evidence points to Ukraine winning this. If Russia comes back and takes Kyiv later, that would be a different battle.

How long after d-day do you think Wikipedia should wait to call it a successful beach landing?

 

[Frabjous]

I don't agree with this. I mean, Wikipedia does not get to make the determination of whether Ukraine won, but Ukraine and Russia do. All the evidence points to Ukraine winning this. If Russia comes back and takes Kyiv later, that would be a different battle.

How long after d-day do you think Wikipedia should wait to call it a successful beach landing?

I am not arguing with the facts, just the characterization.

So if in a couple of days the Russians turn around, are we going to be talking about the Second Battle of Kyiv and the Second Kyiv Campaign. I doubt it.

I would argue that “D-Day” “ended” when the Allies broke out. If in late June, early July the Germans had launched a counter offensive which forced Allied retreat, we would refer to it as a single action (the failed Operation Overlord).

 

[Vanadium 50]

I do not believe Wikipedia can make these determinations. While it might turn out to be true

In that case, there would be a First and Second Battles of Kiev. Like the Second Battle of Bull Run.

 

[Frabjous]

In that case, there would be a First and Second Battles of Kiev. Like the Second Battle of Bull Run.

The first battle was in July 1861. The second was in August 1862.

 

[strangerep]

[...] It is time to pay the bills.

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

 

[Frabjous]

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

I am waiting for Ukraine to sue for the Russian funds ($300B) frozen in Western banks.

 

[wrobel]

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

I do not know an exact amount. And yes for Russia it will be a bill to pay and it must be paid.

 

[PeroK]

Maybe too soon, but, since we speak of "bills", has anyone attempted yet to estimate how many trillions of euros (or hryvnia?) worth of damage has been inflicted on Ukraine by Russia?

Or how many civilians killed or seriously injured.

 

[phinds]

I do not know an exact amount. And yes for Russia it will be a bill to pay and it must be paid.

And what enforcement mechanism do you imagine to make your "must" actually happen?

 

[Astronuc]

Evidence of war crimes in the village of Bucha near Kyiv have been reported by BBC and Reuters. Dead bodies of civilians have been found in streets, including one man with his hands tied. At least 20 people were shot in the back of the head. The town has buried nearly 300 persons.

 

[wrobel]

And what enforcement mechanism do you imagine to make your "must" actually happen?

I hope that Russia will go by German way.

By the way the property and money of the oligarchs in USA and EU can be given to Ukraine right now.

 

[BWV]

Evidence of war crimes in the village of Bucha near Kyiv have been reported by BBC and Reuters. Dead bodies of civilians have been found in streets, including one man with his hands tied. At least 20 people were shot in the back of the head. The town has buried nearly 300 persons.

A flood of reports of rapes and murders by Russian troops now, reminiscent of the atrocities in the Yugoslav civil war.

 

[phinds]

I hope that Russia will go by German way.

STAGGERING optimism.

 

[phinds]

By the way the property and money of the oligarchs in USA and EU can be given to Ukraine right now.

Doubtful. Freezing assets is one thing. Stealing them to give to someone else is a whole 'nother can of worms.

 

[Astronuc]

Doubtful. Freezing assets is one thing. Stealing them to give to someone else is a whole 'nother can of worms.

I would expect that there is a legal channel for confiscating the funds of the Russian government, but not private individuals, unless it can be determined that the private individuals acquired the funds by illicit means. Even so, even a legal procedure would be difficult.

 

[PeroK]

Doubtful. Freezing assets is one thing. Stealing them to give to someone else is a whole 'nother can of worms.

I don't think that's what @wrobel meant.

 

[PeroK]

I would expect that there is a legal channel for confiscating the funds of the Russian government, but not private individuals, unless it can be determined that the private individuals acquired the funds by illicit means. Even so, even a legal procedure would be difficult.

The UK government has sanctioned 7 "oligarchs":

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...archs-targeted-in-estimated-15bn-sanction-hit

 

[phinds]

I don't think that's what @wrobel meant.

I don't see how else to interpret his statement. How do you interpret it?

 

[PeroK]

I don't see how else to interpret his statement. How do you interpret it?

That in a righteous world that's where their fortunes would go.

 

[phinds]

That in a righteous world that's where their fortunes would go.

We don't live in a righteous world, we live in a world that is (sometimes) ruled by law. What he is suggesting would be illegal.

 

[PeroK]

We don't live in a righteous world, we live in a world that is (sometimes) ruled by law. What he is suggesting would be illegal.

I don't share your reverence for ill-gotten wealth.

 

[vela]

I don't share your reverence for ill-gotten wealth.

The issue is the governments needs to prove that it was ill-gotten wealth. You really don't want to go down the road of "I don't like these guys, so let's just take their money."

 

[artis]

but not private individuals, unless it can be determined that the private individuals acquired the funds by illicit means. Even so, even a legal procedure would be difficult.

Exactly, we do understand that the folks got their money in ill ways but how do you prove that in a court of law? Unless you can get into Russia and access every criminal paper trail there is I'd say close to zero chances to do it in a legal way.

The issue is the governments needs to prove that it was ill-gotten wealth. You really don't want to go down the road of "I don't like these guys, so let's just take their money."

Exactly, I for one share no illusion as to the source of most of that money, but I can't prove it legally.
Taking someone's money without a legal justification would be a bad precedent for the western system where justice in a court of law is considered among the foundations of a civil society.

I don't think that the only way to win over a corrupt government is to employ the very means which are used by the very government you are trying to win.

Seizing assets without a clear and transparent legal documentation is exactly what is done in Russia to those that have dared to oppose Kremlin.

 

[pinball1970]

The UK government has sanctioned 7 "oligarchs":

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/...archs-targeted-in-estimated-15bn-sanction-hit

Yes fairly early doors too. Abramowitz has got involved in peace talks recently. Some say to protect this wealth some say because of his Ukraine links.
Probably a bit of both.

 

[Frabjous]

I was going to quote Balzac, but according to
https://quoteinvestigator.com/2013/09/09/fortune-crime/
I wasn’t, so I shall not.

 

[PeroK]

The issue is the governments needs to prove that it was ill-gotten wealth. You really don't want to go down the road of "I don't like these guys, so let's just take their money."

Far be it from me to try to shake your faith in the inalienable rights of the fabulously wealthy!

The people's flag is deepest red ...

 

[phinds]

I don't share your reverence for ill-gotten wealth.

I have ZERO reverence for ill-gotten wealth but I have great reverance for the rule of law. It has to be PROVEN that it was ill-gotten even though we are pretty damned sure it was. Are you indifferent to the rule of law?

 

[BWV]

I hope that Russia will go by German way.

seriously? Hitler deliberately took the whole country down with him, basically your stereotypical cult leader mass suicide - that is what you want for Russia? Personally I would vote for Putin to go the way of Mussolini or Quadafi

 

[PeroK]

I have ZERO reverence for ill-gotten wealth but I have great reverance for the rule of law.

In Russia it's against the law to contradict Putin. The laws are often made by those in power to oppress those with no power. Nelson Mandela was tried for treason. In the US it was the law to return escaped slaves to their rightful owners.

Whoever betrayed Anne Frank was acting as the law dictated. Those who hid her were breaking the law.

I could go on.