# Need help with a probability problem

Guys and girls, I need help calculating the probability of the following event happening (or feel free to just tell me the answer )

I know an event has two possible outcomes, lets call the outcome A and outcome B. I know that the desired outcome (let's call it A) has occured 25% of the time over a sample size of 200 events.

What is the probability that A will occure 75% (or greater) of the time over the next 24 occurances of the event happening?

I have a basic understanding of probability but I'm having trouble wrapping my head around this.

Last edited:

mathman
Use the binomial distribution with p(A)=1/4. Although you don't know p(A) exactly, 200 trials gives you a good estimate.

Use the binomial distribution with p(A)=1/4. Although you don't know p(A) exactly, 200 trials gives you a good estimate.

How do we account for the fact that after each additional trial p(A) changes. In this instance lets say trials 201-210 all yield the desired result. That being the case p(A) will increase after each of these trials.

EnumaElish