North Korea Leaves NPT: Opinions on the Situation?

[russ_watters]

North Korea today officially pulled out of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. Goodie. Opinions on the entire situation with N Korea?

 

[damgo]

After the Iraq situation cools down, they and the USA will kiss and make up... perhaps with a little extra humanitarian aid from the USA.

http://www.nytimes.com/reuters/politics/politics-korea-north-un.html

Interestly, the US is moving its main military base out of Seoul "as soon as possible." [URL]http://ap.tbo.com/ap/breaking/MGA2JJKFBED.html[/URL]

 

[russ_watters]

Originally posted by damgo
After the Iraq situation cools down, they and the USA will kiss and make up... perhaps with a little extra humanitarian aid from the USA.

I'll believe that when I see it, damgo.

Interestly, the US is moving its main military base out of Seoul "as soon as possible."

That would probably be a good thing - it would motivate N Korea to attack thinking the south is weak without the US. Then the south would crush them (with our help of course) and unify the country under a democratic government.

What is happening in N Korea is about as bad as what Saddam was doing to his people. I read recently that Kim Jong Il has also killed upwards of 2 million of his own people in the past 10 years (the majority through starvation). Thats a massive 10% of the population of his country.

 

[Zero]

If I were N. Korea, I would pull out of treaties too...

 

[russ_watters]

Originally posted by Zero
If I were N. Korea, I would pull out of treaties too...

Ok...

If I were Satan, I'd invest in gas heat.

 

[kyleb]

are you saying that the oil industry is run by satanists russ?

 

[Njorl]

War in Korea would be a disaster. The North Korean army consists of 2 million well armed, well trained professional soldiers, half full time, half active reserve. The people are completely in the thralldom of their government, and will resist ardently even though their masters are monsters. They probably have some nuclear weapons, and would undoubtedly use them if they were in dire straits. In all but the most contrived scenerios, China would enter the conflict.

South Korea is a thriving, industrial, democratic nation. All of that could be lost in war. South Korea would be destroyed as we know it. I would sy N. Korea would be destroyed as well, but essentially, it has been already.

They best way to deal with N Korea is to treat them like a maniac with a gun and hostages. As long as they are not shooting the hostages, just talk nicely and try to keep them calm.

Njorl

 

[russ_watters]

Originally posted by Njorl
The people are completely in the thralldom of their government, and will resist ardently even though their masters are monsters... In all but the most contrived scenerios, China would enter the conflict.Njorl

I pretty much agree with everything except those two statements. I cannot accept that people who are starving to death can be so brainwashed as to follow their masters to their deaths. Example: Iraq.

Why would China enter the war? This isn't 1950 and the chinese aren't stupid. They aren't on N. Korea's side.

They best way to deal with N Korea is to treat them like a maniac with a gun and hostages. As long as they are not shooting the hostages, just talk nicely and try to keep them calm.

Thats reasonable except that THIS maniac *IS* killing the hostages.

 

[FZ+]

War in Korea would be a disaster. The North Korean army consists of 2 million well armed, well trained professional soldiers, half full time, half active reserve. The people are completely in the thralldom of their government, and will resist ardently even though their masters are monsters. They probably have some nuclear weapons, and would undoubtedly use them if they were in dire straits. In all but the most contrived scenerios, China would enter the conflict.

A. The koreans DO have nuclear weapons, and they certainly have the range to hit at japan, and maybe even the west coast of the US. They also have the motivation to do so.
B. A major problem is that we don't have an effective opposition to deal with here. The NK dictatorship is as strong as there is.
C. China is indeed the wildcard here. Though they are traditionally allies, they have been growing apart of late, and China is too dependent on western trade to do much. Indeed, they are probably the most important in reining the Koreans in. The prime goal of chinese policy is stability, and they would not tolerate Korean aggression forever. In a war, they would probably be on the side of the US, and try to get an amenable solution for themselves.
D. The key point is that the Koreans attribute their starvation to the US. In that way they are partially correct - we have been invoking sanctions of late. But these were in response to actions by the korean government. It would be hard to transmit this message to the koreans, though.

They best way to deal with N Korea is to treat them like a maniac with a gun and hostages. As long as they are not shooting the hostages, just talk nicely and try to keep them calm.

Tough call. It is hard to keep the koreans calm. The best is to use the Chinese to exert leverage on them to back down from their hardline stance. The primary problem they have is paranoia - they do not trust the US down to any level. That barrier needs to be broken for diplomatic dealings. Food aid may be a start, at least it would stop the immediate crisis but will it work in the long term?
I think China is the key here.

 

[damgo]

My predictions will come true yet! North Korea says "alright, it's OK if we see other people."

North Korea Shifts Stance on Nuclear Talks
http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/13/international/asia/13KORE.html