A. Neumaier said:
It is non-technical but logically faulty, hence irrelevant.
Everything that is difficult to find but has not yet been found would not exist with high probability, according to this argument. Moreover, the probabilities involved are extremely subjective, and do not mean anything except for the subject uttering them.
"Logically faulty" is itself faulty once applied to an argument which does not even claim that it is decisive, and which was, moreover, reduced here to a short phrase, not more than a reference to this argument, instead of the argument itself.
In fact, most of the arguments people like to name "logically faulty" are completely adequate if understood not at certain logical conclusions but as part of plausible reasoning. So if from A follows B, it is "logically faulty" to conclude from B that A, but if we have B this makes the hypothesis nonetheless A more plausible. If this increase in plausibility is a serious one or not depends on the circumstances, that means, on the details. To summarize, in domains where one cannot expect certain proofs, but only plausible reasoning, one can misrepresent as "logically faulty" almost everything.
What would be the details in this case? First of all, the amount of intellectual energy which has been already spend trying to solve the problem. In this case, we have a whole subdomain of mathematical physics, AQFT, working essentially only on this problem, and a large prize for those who solve it. Then, observation of what has been reached, and why the methods used have not been sufficient yet. This requires some knowledge of what has been reached, which I have not. But what I have heard is that the successful examples are all superrenormalizable. In this case, I would see no base for hope.
A. Neumaier said:
This doesn"t mean that the conjecture was almost certainly false before it was proved. Instead, those informed always considered it most likely to be true (for technical reasons)! The Riemann hypothesis is also regarded as true by many even though in spite of the attempt of a number of the best mathematicians, no proof has been found in the last 150 years.
The question what is most plausibly true if the problem itself is not solved is, of course, something which depends on the problem. Last but not least, the hypothesis that A is true is nothing but a reformulation of the hypothesis that not A is true, solving one solves automatically the other too, but the answers are opposite. So, one needs at least some information to identify what plays the role of the null hypothesis.
But in this case, it is quite simple. We look for a theory of physics with certain properties. But, in fact, we don't look for a completely arbitrary one, but, for other reasons, for a simple one. If a research program with the final aim to construct a simple theory has failed to construct yet even a horribly complex one, and simple theories are in general easier to find and construct (if one is not restricted by fitting observations, as in this case) the answer is the natural one: To give up the research program because it has no chance to reach the final aim.