Probability in a multiple choice test

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around a probability problem involving two students taking a 10-question multiple-choice test, where each question has 4 possible answers. Participants explore how to calculate the number of ways the students can answer the test and the probability that they provide the same answers.

Discussion Character

  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • One participant calculates the total number of ways each student can answer the test as \(4^{10}\), noting that the number of students does not affect this calculation.
  • Another participant suggests that if neither student knows the answers, the probability that the second student matches the first student's answers can be framed in terms of specific answer patterns.
  • There is a question about whether the probability of matching answers should be calculated as \(1/410\) or \((1/410)^2\), considering the independence of the events.
  • A participant presents a probability approach using events A and B to represent the scores of each student, leading to a calculation involving \(P(A \text{ and } B) = P(A|B)P(B)\) and discussing the implications of matching across all possible answer combinations.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on how to calculate the probability of matching answers, with no consensus reached on whether to treat the events as independent or as a single event. The discussion remains unresolved regarding the correct interpretation of the probability calculation.

Contextual Notes

Some assumptions about the students' knowledge of the answers and the independence of their responses are not explicitly stated, which may affect the probability calculations discussed.

magnifik
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Two students are taking a 10 question test. Each question has 4 different answers. How many ways can each student answer the test? What is the probability that these two students get the same answers?

I know that to get the number of ways to answer, the number of students is irrelevant.
nk in this case is 410

I'm stuck on the second part of the question though. Any guidance would be helpful.
 
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I would assume that neither knows any actual answers (otherwise, that's a really dumb HW question for the teacher to ask). Look at it this way. However the first person answers the test, you only have to have the second student match them, so what is the probability a student answers the test in a specific way, such as A, C, A, D, B, B, B, D, A, C?
 
daveb said:
i would assume that neither knows any actual answers (otherwise, that's a really dumb homework question for the teacher to ask). Look at it this way. However the first person answers the test, you only have to have the second student match them, so what is the probability a student answers the test in a specific way, such as a, c, a, d, b, b, b, d, a, c?

1/410?
 
You got it!
 
daveb said:
You got it!

I'm wondering if it's 1/410 or (1/410)2 since the events are independent? Or is two students getting the same score considered one event?
 
Let's look at it via probability.

A = event that student #1 scores a particular score: P(A) = 4-10
B = event that student #2 scores a particular score: P(B) = 4-10

P(A and B) = P(A|B)P(B) = (4-10)2

However, this only accounts for one of the possible ways of answering, and there are 410 different possible ways for a student to answer, so they can match for each of these, which gives

(4-10)2 * 410 = 4-10
 

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