Probability that exactly one of three events will occur

  • Context: MHB 
  • Thread starter Thread starter alexmahone
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Events Probability
Click For Summary
SUMMARY

The probability that exactly one of three events, denoted as $A_1$, $A_2$, and $A_3$, occurs is calculated using the formula: $\Pr(A_1) + \Pr(A_2) + \Pr(A_3) - 2\Pr(A_1 \cap A_2) - 2\Pr(A_2 \cap A_3) - 2\Pr(A_1 \cap A_3) + 3\Pr(A_1 \cap A_2 \cap A_3)$. This formula accounts for the individual probabilities of each event and adjusts for overlaps among the events. The derivation involves calculating the probabilities of combinations where only one event occurs while excluding the others.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of basic probability concepts
  • Familiarity with event notation (e.g., $A_i$, $A_i^c$)
  • Knowledge of intersection and union of events
  • Ability to manipulate probability formulas
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the principles of probability theory, focusing on event independence
  • Learn about the inclusion-exclusion principle in probability
  • Explore advanced probability topics such as conditional probability
  • Practice problems involving multiple events and their probabilities
USEFUL FOR

Students of probability theory, mathematicians, and anyone interested in understanding the complexities of event probabilities in statistical analysis.

alexmahone
Messages
303
Reaction score
0
Let $A_1$, $A_2$, and $A_3$ be three arbitrary events. Show that the probability that exactly one of these three events will occur is

$\Pr(A_1)+\Pr(A_2)+\Pr(A_3)-2\Pr(A_1\cap A_2)-2\Pr(A_2\cap A_3)-2\Pr(A_1\cap A_3)+3\Pr(A_1\cap A_2\cap A_3)$

My attempt:

The required probability$=\Pr(A_1\cap A_2^c\cap A_3^c)+\Pr(A_1^c\cap A_2\cap A_3^c)+\Pr(A_1^c\cap A_2^c\cap A_3)$

$\Pr(A_1\cap A_2^c\cap A_3^c)=\Pr(A_1\cap(A_2\cup A_3)^c)$

$=\Pr(A_1)-\Pr(A_1\cap(A_2\cup A_3))$

How do I proceed?
 
Last edited:
Physics news on Phys.org
Alexmahone said:
Let $A_1$, $A_2$, and $A_3$ be three arbitrary events. Show that the probability that exactly one of these three events will occuris
$\Pr(A_1)+\Pr(A_2)+\Pr(A_3)-2\Pr(A_1\cap A_2)-2\Pr(A_2\cap A_3)-2\Pr(A_1\cap A_3)+3\Pr(A_1\cap A_2\cap A_3)$
To simplify notation.
$P(AB^cC^c)=P(AB^c)-P(AB^cC)$
$=P(A)-P(AB)-[P(AC)-P(ABC)]$
$=P(A)-P(AB)-P(AC)+P(ABC)$

Do that twice more for $P(A^cBC^c)~\&~P(A^cB^cC)$ and add.
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 62 ·
3
Replies
62
Views
4K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
2K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
2K
  • · Replies 2 ·
Replies
2
Views
3K
  • · Replies 20 ·
Replies
20
Views
3K
  • · Replies 6 ·
Replies
6
Views
1K
  • · Replies 14 ·
Replies
14
Views
3K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
1K
Replies
21
Views
2K
  • · Replies 9 ·
Replies
9
Views
3K