Probability: The birth problem - mean and variance

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating the mean and variance of the ratio of boys to girls (R) for a Canadian couple who continue having children until they have a girl, with a probability of 0.52 for having a girl. The mean of R is derived from the expected value of a random variable X, while the variance requires understanding the distribution of the number of boys (N) before the first girl is born. Additionally, the probability of having more than two boys is calculated using the binomial distribution, specifically (0.48)^3 for the first three children being boys.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of probability theory, specifically binomial distributions
  • Familiarity with random variables and their expected values
  • Knowledge of mean and variance calculations
  • Basic concepts of ratios in statistics
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the properties of binomial distributions in probability theory
  • Learn about calculating expected values for random variables
  • Explore variance and standard deviation in statistical analysis
  • Investigate the implications of probability ratios in real-world scenarios
USEFUL FOR

This discussion is beneficial for students studying probability, statisticians analyzing family planning scenarios, and educators teaching concepts of random variables and distributions.

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Homework Statement



Suppose that a married couple in Canada decide to have babies until they get the first girl baby. It is well-known that in high-latitude countries, the chance of have a girl is slightly higher than the chance of having boy. Suppose that the chance of having a girl in Canada is 0.52. Let R be the ratio of boys to girls in the second generation for this family.

a) Find the mean and variance of R
b) What is the chance that there are more than 2 boy babies in the family?

Homework Equations


The Attempt at a Solution



a) So the mean is E(X) of some random variable X. But R is a ratio. R is 48:52. How would R have a range if it is a ratio?
b) Need to have 3 or more boys. So first 3 need to be boys: (48/100)^3
 
Last edited:
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The couple ostensibly don't have any babies yet, so you don't know what the ratio will be, but you can calculate the expected value of the ratio.

One random variable is N, the number of babies the couple will have. What is the distribution that describes N? If the couple has n babies, how many are girls and how many are boys? It's the latter number divided by the first number that is the ratio the problem is asking about.
 

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