Probability: The birth problem - mean and variance

In summary, the problem presents a scenario where a married couple in Canada wants to have babies until they have a girl. Given that the chance of having a girl in Canada is 0.52, the ratio of boys to girls in the second generation for this family is denoted as R. The mean and variance of R are then calculated. Additionally, the problem asks for the chance of having more than 2 boys in the family, which can be found by first calculating the expected value of the ratio and then using it to determine the number of boys needed for the probability to be greater than 2.
  • #1
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Homework Statement



Suppose that a married couple in Canada decide to have babies until they get the first girl baby. It is well-known that in high-latitude countries, the chance of have a girl is slightly higher than the chance of having boy. Suppose that the chance of having a girl in Canada is 0.52. Let R be the ratio of boys to girls in the second generation for this family.

a) Find the mean and variance of R
b) What is the chance that there are more than 2 boy babies in the family?

Homework Equations


The Attempt at a Solution



a) So the mean is E(X) of some random variable X. But R is a ratio. R is 48:52. How would R have a range if it is a ratio?
b) Need to have 3 or more boys. So first 3 need to be boys: (48/100)^3
 
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  • #2
The couple ostensibly don't have any babies yet, so you don't know what the ratio will be, but you can calculate the expected value of the ratio.

One random variable is N, the number of babies the couple will have. What is the distribution that describes N? If the couple has n babies, how many are girls and how many are boys? It's the latter number divided by the first number that is the ratio the problem is asking about.
 

What is the birth problem in probability?

The birth problem in probability refers to the calculation of the probability that in a group of n people, at least two of them share the same birthday. This problem is also known as the "birthday paradox".

How is the mean calculated in the birth problem?

The mean in the birth problem is calculated by dividing the number of possible pairs of people who share the same birthday by the total number of possible pairs of people in the group. The result is then multiplied by 100 to get the percentage probability.

What is the significance of the variance in the birth problem?

The variance in the birth problem measures the spread of the probability distribution. A higher variance indicates a wider range of possible outcomes, while a lower variance indicates a more concentrated probability distribution. In the birth problem, a higher variance means that there is a higher chance of two people sharing the same birthday, while a lower variance means that this is less likely.

How does increasing the number of people in the group affect the mean and variance in the birth problem?

As the number of people in the group increases, the mean in the birth problem also increases, while the variance decreases. This means that as the group size grows, the probability of two people sharing the same birthday also increases, but the spread of this probability distribution becomes narrower.

What other factors can affect the mean and variance in the birth problem?

The mean and variance in the birth problem can also be affected by the number of days in a year and the distribution of birthdays among the population. For example, if there are more people born on certain days or months, this can affect the probability of two people sharing the same birthday and the resulting mean and variance. Additionally, leap years can also impact the results.

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