- #1
tapciv
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Homework Statement
Question breaks down to this.
defect occurs 1/100 items.
.97 (97%) of the time when an item has a defect it is detected.
.005 of the time, an item is detected to have a defect when it actually does not have one.
What is the probability that an Actual defect occurs when one is detected?
Homework Equations
I can use Bayes theorem, once I know the variables but this is where I am having trouble with this question.
Determining what A1, A2 are?
B = A defect being found (I believe)
P(B|A1)= ?
P(B|A2)=?
The Attempt at a Solution
I believe I want to find P(A1|B) which will be the probability that a detection is actually a defect when found.
I know P(B|A1), P(B|A2) must = 1 which is where I can not seem to figure out in this case.
I think A1 = Defect being found correctly = .97
and
A2 = Defect being found incorrectly = ? (.005 but is that it? or how is this calculated given this is 99/100 times .005 are found incorrectly?).
Any help would be awesome!
Thanks