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So I just developed an equation that calculates how likely a racer is to win a particular race. It is not a probability ratio, which is why I'm calling it an index.

RWPI(racer) = GRI(racer) / GRI(top competitors)

where the GRI (Good Racer Index) of a racer is:

GRI(racer) = (wins / total races) * avg. time

In the case where the racer competes with racers he has competed with in the past, and those competitors (out of the top) have won better places than him a few times, the driver's RWPI becomes

RWPI(racer) = (GRI(racer)/GRI(top competitors)) / ((bp / tcr) / cic)

where

bp refers to how many times the racer has gotten a worse place than any one of the said competitors,

tcr = the number of races they've had in common

cic = the number of said competitors

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# Racecar Winning Probability Index - click to find out what it means

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