Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[fresh_42]

Mr. Biden is afraid to close the sky over Ukraine. What do you want from Russian people?

It is apparently much easier to demand a revolution from the self-righteous standpoint of a safe place in the West than it is under the pressure of being arrested and threatened with prison. Especially, if people have not the slightest idea what it means to live in a tyranny.

Some ignorance by the participants of this thread (not you) is very disturbing.

 

[PeroK]

Mr. Biden is afraid to close the sky over Ukraine. What do you want from Russian people?

Yes, it's shameful. If the POTUS is afraid to stand up for the free world, then we are all in trouble. You have China and the wannabe dictators looking on and seeing weakness.

I never thought I would ever quote Ronald Reagan but "The future does not belong to the faint-hearted, it belongs to the brave." Biden is showing faint-heartedness when bravery - sooner or later - in needed. If not now, when?

 

[Hall]

Putin is a very matured administrator, thinking of civil war doesn't make sense. There is a vital difference between the people who supported Trump and those who are supporting Putin, the Trump supporters didn't support him rather they support the main thematic ideas of rightism (not invented or even promoted by Trump), while Pro-Z are much more internally captivated by the idea of Putinism (and I really don't know what that idea is). Putin can not be defeated internally.

 

[PeroK]

It is apparently much easier to demand a revolution from the self-righteous standpoint of a safe place in the West than it is under the pressure of being arrested and threatened with prison. Especially, if people have not the slightest idea what it means to live in a tyranny.

Maybe I would lack the courage. That's not the point. The point is that the people of Russian have done little or nothing for 20 years to halt this man's rise to absolute power. And, now, when he's engaged in a war of aggression, they follow his orders, they shell towns and cities, they do every last thing he asks of them.

Perhaps if I was in Russia I would be weak and this would be on my conscience too. But, you have no way to know what I would do. If I failed when bravery was asked of me, then you would have something to say. But, you cannot presume to know what I would do. You cannot presume to know I would be a coward. You do not know me. You don't know whether I would fight or not. Whether I would be a political dissident or not.

 

[hutchphd]

Biden in showing faint-heartedness when bravery - sooner or later - in needed. If not now, when?

Our primary responsibility to our fellow and predecessor humans in this situation is to choose a path that does annihilate the race. What does "the future belongs to the brave" mean? Like most Reaganisms (with kudos to Peggy Noonan), it means exactly what you wish it to mean. Brave does not always mean sabre-rattling. Witness Mohandas Gandhi. Or Martin Luther King. War begets war.
But appeasement is a certainly not the solution.
So here we are: Scylla and Charybdis. What does bravery look like here?

 

[PeroK]

What does bravery look like here?

It's just my opinion, but in the current situation bravery is a willingness to fight. And faint-heartedness is a reluctance to fight.

 

[Filip Larsen]

Wired.com ran this piece the other day, and it struck me that it took the bravery of Ukraine to stand up for themselves to finally make the west (and hopefully others) to open their eyes fully. I surely hope journalists and historians over time will be able to verify and document all the relevant facts of this so both people and countries alike can learn not to fall into this trap again (yeah, I know, fat chance, but still, one can hope).

Another thing that struck me is that Putin, this time, apparently also generously lied internally, at least to the Russian soldiers, and if this is really what happened then there should be at least around 130 Russian troops that know something is rotten with the information they are getting. Over time this may just end up making a difference for the Russian collective knowledge.

 

[fresh_42]

The crucial point isn't about bravery. The crucial point is the media. Some nations even speak of manipulation of elections if only some internet propaganda from the Russian side took place. As if the internet could influence my decision to vote for or against a certain party. Now imagine how much more it means if there isn't any opinion available other than the tyrant's opinion! "A tyrant doesn't adjust his opinions to match the facts, he adjusts the facts to match his opinion." (Dr. Who, 1977)

Many if not most Russians actually believe that there was a genocide going on in East Ukraine in the past eight years (seen in a street interview in Moscow today). Common people do not reflect what they are told, and in this case on literally all available channels. Putin shut down all sources of opposition, foreign or domestic. Do you want to control the public? Start to control the media. There are plenty of examples, even in the West (Italy, USA), although not to the same extent, however, the attempts could have been observed.

 

[hutchphd]

Putin shut down all sources of opposition, foreign or domestic.

I refuse to believe that the Russian people are so stupid that most of them don't comprehend the meaning of that action. Those who wish to know the truth can know the truth. It is easier not to know. Even as a US citizen there were times over the last several years when the truth was too painful to look at squarely and I demurred.
Bravery comes in all shapes and sizes. First it involves seeking the truth. Actions then must follow. That does not necessarilly mean using the biggest arrow in your quiver.

I remind all of the Cuban Missile Crises (I was 10 years old at the time and knew full well what was at stake). We were in more peril (nuclear torpedoes on Soviet submarines with local firing authority) than even a terrified 10-year old suspected. Thank god for the bravery of those Soviet commanders not to pull out the big arrow.
President Kennedy's military advisors were recommending an invasion. Thank god for the bravery of Kennedy to resist that siren song.
And so I got to live a full (and largely foolish) life. Bravery comes in many forms.

//

 

[fresh_42]

I refuse to believe that the Russian people are so stupid that most of them don't comprehend the meaning of that action.

It isn't stupidity, it is laziness. We eat what's on the table. And the current situation is we (Russians) against them (Ukrainian fascists). The word fascist has a completely different connotation as it has to us. Fascists were the German occupants, and the victory over them is basically a national holiday celebrated year by year. So fighting these kinds of people is patriotism for Russians. Putin knows the buttons he must push.

 

[Astronuc]

Some insight on Putin and the invasion of Ukraine from Johnny Harris, journalist, film-maker and documentarian.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Johnny_Harris_(journalist)As far as the majority of Russians are concerned, Putin is involved in a noble effort to 'rescue' their Ukrainian brothers, sisters and cousins, from the evil clutches of the US and EU, who want to use Ukraine to undermine Russia.

Putin is a delusional psychopath.

 

[hutchphd]

Putin is a delusional psychopath.

I think there is no doubt about that. The question is how to put the bear in the cage. Oh, and the bear has a flamethrower...

 

[fresh_42]

Putin is a delusional psychopath.

We have a saying here which matches the situation:

"Putin hasn't heard the shot."

I don't know where it originated from, but it is stronger than "didn't get the memo" since it implies also a fair amount of stupidity and ignorance.

 

[Astronuc]

Putin is turning Russia into a Gulag and plans to do the same in Ukraine, which he apparently sees as part of Russia.

From a Washington Post article:

the Kremlin didn’t stop there [shutting down independent media and blocking the internet]. On Friday, in an unprecedented legislative sprint, both houses of Russia’s rubber-stamp parliament unanimously passed a new law — immediately signed by Putin — criminalizing honest reporting (“spreading knowingly false information,” in Kremlin-speak) about Russian military actions and organizing demonstrations against them. Criminal penalties for the said “offenses” run as high as 15 years in prison, and Duma Speaker Vyacheslav Volodin already promised “strict punishment.”

In response, leading Western news organizations — including CNN, CBS News and the BBC — have announced that they are ceasing reporting from Russia to protect their journalists from arrest. As expected, the immediate brunt of the new measures fell most heavily on Russian opponents of the war. On Saturday, just a day after the law came into effect, police in Pskov raided the offices of Lev Shlosberg, a prominent opposition leader and publisher who has been a vocal critic of Putin’s attacks on Ukraine since 2014. In Kostroma, police detained a Russian Orthodox priest, Father Ioann Burdin, over his church sermon against the war. They are almost certainly only the first in a long list of targets. Given this threat, it is remarkable that thousands of Russians continue to rally all over the country in opposition to Putin’s assault on Ukraine.

 

[happyhacker]

Are the political elite in Russia suffering yet? Until they do nothing will stop this or his next target.

 

[Klystron]

This is an interesting information bit.
Apparently a Soviet era made drone - Tu141 flew all the way from Ukraine over 3 NATO countries and finally landed in Zagreb...

Quite interesting, but not overly surprising given the difficulty of detecting a single low flying target with relatively tiny signature.

That would demonstrate a vulnerability to cruise missiles from Ukraine or Belarus to much of Europe. Ostensibly, there are more sophisticated systems.

Correct on both counts. Individual cruise missiles by design are extremely difficult to detect and track from the ground. NATO utilizes information from several defensive countermeasure systems to see these threats.

Interception is another story, leading to development of defensive anti-missile armaments such as phalanx and repurposed Aegis systems; high tech versions of 'golden BB' or 'shotgun' solutions.

 

[fresh_42]

 

[neilparker62]

An attempt at rational thought, followed by massive civil disobedience. What do you want ?

.

Arguably Putin's view of Ukraine following the Maidan Revolution is of a section of the "Empire" where he faces "massive civil disobedience". He is dealing with it accordingly.

 

[Vanadium 50]

The "value proposition" offered by Russia to the West is "you don't interfere with us in the Ukraine and we won't attack you with our nuclear weapons".

If this requires escalation - and not everyone, including me, is sure that it does - I would suggest that every time this threat is made or implied, a Russian SSBN is sunk, the West denies it, and even volunteers to help with the search. Russia will get the message.

 

[DennisN]

Some insight on Putin and the invasion of Ukraine from Johnny Harris, journalist, film-maker and documentarian.

I saw it tonight and also sent the link to a couple of my friends.
Thanks for posting!

 

[fresh_42]

Just read: Russia warns NATO to incorporate Sweden or Finland.

 

[DennisN]

Just read: Russia warns NATO to incorporate Sweden or Finland.

There have been recent warnings from/pressure on Sweden from Putin's Russia regarding NATO. I'll find a news article about it, translate it and post it here. I'll be back.

 

[vela]

Just read: Russia warns NATO to incorporate Sweden or Finland.

Russia wants Sweden and Finland to join NATO?

 

[DennisN]

Just read: Russia warns NATO to incorporate Sweden or Finland.

There have been recent warnings from/pressure on Sweden from Putin's Russia regarding NATO. I'll find a news article about it, translate it and post it here. I'll be back.

I'm back.

News article: Russia repeats Nato warning towards Sweden (SVT (Swedish National Television), 12th March 2022) (Swedish only, my translation below)

There are some repetitions in the article, but I decided to translate it exactly as it was written, and as accurately as I could.

Russia repeats Nato warning towards Sweden
(SVT (Swedish National Television), 12th March 2022)

If Sweden joins Nato there will "measures of retaliation" from Russia, says an official from the Russian
Ministry of Foreign Affairs, according to the Russian news agency Interfax. "Our independent decisions are none of Russia's business", says Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Ann Linde (S).

The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs repeats the warning that a Swedish Nato accession will lead to "measures of retaliation", TT reports and refers to the Russian news agency Interfax.

Before the invasion of Ukraine, Russia demanded that Nato would not allow new member applications, among others from Sweden but also from Ukraine and Finland. After the invasion a spokesperson for the Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs also said that a Swedish and Finnish accession to Nato would have "serious 'militarypolitical' consequences".

”Would lead to serious military and political consequences"

- It is obvious that Finlands and Swedens accession to Nato, which is primarily a military organization, would have serious military and political consequences which demand a revision of the entire scale of relations to these countries and measures of retaliation, says Sergej Beljajev to Interfax according to TT.

He does not specify what "measures of retaliation" means.

Swedish Minister of Foreign Affairs Ann Linde write in an sms to the news agency TT that "Our independent decisions are none of Russia's business".

 

[neilparker62]

The "value proposition" offered by Russia to the West is "you don't interfere with us in the Ukraine and we won't attack you with our nuclear weapons".

If this requires escalation - and not everyone, including me, is sure that it does - I would suggest that every time this threat is made or implied, a Russian SSBN is sunk, the West denies it, and even volunteers to help with the search. Russia will get the message.

Unfortunately there is no real response to Mr Putin's "value proposition" other than Newton's Third Law. Equal and opposite!

 

[Astronuc]

From a discussion between Amy Goodman and Dr. Andrew Bacevich on Democracy Now.

One person who warned years ago about NATO expansion in Eastern Europe is William Burns, the current director of the CIA.

He served as U.S. ambassador to Russia from 2005 to 2008. In his memoir, The Back Channel, Burns wrote “sitting at the embassy in Moscow in the mid-nineties, it seemed to me that NATO expansion was premature at best and needlessly provocative at worst.” And then in 1995, Burns wrote a memo saying, “Hostility to early NATO expansion is almost universally felt across the domestic political spectrum here.” He’s talking about Russia. In another memo Burns wrote, “Ukrainian entry into NATO is the brightest of all redlines for the Russian elite (not just Putin). In more than two and a half years of conversations with key Russian players, from knuckle-draggers in the dark recesses of the Kremlin to Putin’s sharpest liberal critics, I have yet to find anyone who views Ukraine in NATO as anything other than a direct challenge to Russian interests.” Again, those the words of the current director of the Central Intelligence Agency, William Burns.

According to the discussion, the US and EU were too aggressive in expanding NATO to the Baltics (Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania), Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia, and Slovenia.

In 1997, three former Warsaw Pact countries, Hungary, the Czech Republic, and Poland, were invited to join NATO. After this fourth enlargement in 1999, the Vilnius group of the Baltics and seven East European countries formed in May 2000 to cooperate and lobby for further NATO membership. Seven of these countries joined in the fifth enlargement in 2004. The latest waves of expansion saw 4 Southeastern European states join; Albania and Croatia joined in the sixth enlargement in 2009, Montenegro in 2017 and North Macedonia in 2020.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Member_states_of_NATO

NATO would not be needed but for the aggression of Putin.Under threat of violence, Putin is demanding among other things:

Ukraine cease military action, Ukraine change its constitution to enshrine neutrality, acknowledge Crimea as Russian territory, acknowledge Crimea

I have alternative demands:

Russia ceases military action in Ukraine, and withdraws forces.
Russia compensates Ukraine for damages due to invasion.
Russia cedes illegally seized territory, and a 100 km buffer zone from Ukrainian border, which is fully demilitarized.
Putin is arrested and tried for murder and other war crimes (the invasion itself is a war crime, and all resulting military actions in Ukraine).
Russia rewrites its Constitution to where it was prior to Putin, with guarantees of freedom of speech/expression, freedom of the press, freedom of religion, etc.

 

[pinball1970]

Unfortunately there is no real response to Mr Putin's "value proposition" other than Newton's Third Law. Equal and opposite!

Which could lead to an escalation. The options seem to be do nothing so he is not forced into a corner or force him into a corner.
Now he is telling other countries what they can and cannot do with respect to NATO membership...

 

[hutchphd]

NATO would not be needed but for the aggression of Putin.

I would quibble slightly here. NATO exists because of the possibility of Putin (and Stalin and Berea and Luckashenko and ...). It is the seeming proclivity of the "Soviet" states to elevate such people for whatever reason. Putin is just the most recent, hopefully not the worst.
Of course during that interval the US has had a few certifiably questionable choices, but hey nobody's perfect.
\

 

[DennisN]

Another recent Russian voice which describes the current difficulty of public revolting against Putin, but also about possible alternatives. Well worth watching and digesting, I think:

Russian opposition: We're not strong enough to stop Putin (Sky News, Mar 13, 2022)

Leonid Volkov is the former chief of staff for jailed Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny. He spoke to Sky's Sophy Ridge about the possibility of overthrowing the Russian president - but he said at the moment the opposition did not feel strong enough.

 

[Baluncore]

When evaluating organised crime protection rackets, NATO is clearly the preferred service provider. This is a turf war where, for the Russian Putin group to survive, it must recapture the Ukraine breadbasket, before that rogue resource can reach protection from NATO.

Putin's family has been on the descendent since many of it's oligarchs defected with the takings from Russia to London, where they can trust and receive more reliable protection from NATO.

It is clear that if the Putin group cannot quickly capture the Ukraine, it intends to go for Finland and then Sweden. If it does not, then it may be swallowed all the way up to it's Urals, from the east by China.