Navigating the Tensions in Ukraine: A Scientific Perspective

[Frabjous]

Russia should get grown up.

So now we have a reason beyond economics.

You have previously stated

I cannot see any bad decisions made by Merkel.

and your reasons have been economic. How do you judge Merkel’s decisions in the light that Russia needs to grow up?

 

[fresh_42]

So now we have a reason beyond economics.

Unfortunately.

... and your reasons have been economic. How do you judge Merkel’s decisions in the light that Russia needs to grow up?

It is not anyone's business to interfere with other nations in my opinion, including Russia. One might not oversee that Putin changed through time. A person who is in charge for more than 20 years starts to believe his own fairy tales and what servants dare to tell him. He is a child of the cold war. I even agree with Biden that it would be better if he leaves office - one way or another. But that is a Russian matter, not mine.

Russians have constantly been told that they are a great nation during Soviet times. So anyone who promises to be one again is apparently welcome.

 

[Frabjous]

It is not anyone's business to interfere with other nations in my opinion, including Russia.

I think that is a cop out. First, there is no governing authority for nations, so it is how nations interact with each other which determines global norms. Second, I would guess that you have no issues with interfering for economic gain.

 

[fresh_42]

Second, I would guess that you have no issues with interfering for economic gain.

I do.

 

[Frabjous]

I would argue that it would have been in Germany’s interest to help Russia grow up before it invaded another country; therefore Merkel made the mistake of overprioritizing economics. I am not talking regime change. I believe Putin is rational and miscalculated because the West did not send the right messages.

 

[Astronuc]

It is not anyone's business to interfere with other nations in my opinion, including Russia. One might not oversee that Putin changed through time.

Ideally, that is the case. On the other hand, nations certainly do influence and interfere with each other's internal and external affairs, e.g., all those proxy wars over the past several decades, not to mention the full scale global conflicts, and numerous internal conflicts, and dealings with preferred dictators (not just Putin), . . .

I seem to recall recently a matter of election interference.

But, Putin was a relatively good neighbor to NATO, until he wasn't, and he certainly has been a rather poor neighbor for Ukraine and Belarus.

I would argue that it would have been in Germany’s interest to help Russia grow up before it invaded another country;

It can't be just Germany, but entire EU, US, and rest of the world.

Some background reference material:
https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/ancient-history-documentaries.1013243/post-6612340

 

[Oldman too]

We have serious concerns about fracking.

Concerns "well" placed ! (Pun intended)

 

[pinball1970]

There were several things that struck me in this article. One is that Germany gets 55% of its natural gas imports from Russia. Where was even the most basic contingency planning? I'm not the most politically knowledgeable person, but even I've been calling Putin "the first great dictator of the 21st Century" for the past decade. How did Germany end up almost totally dependent on the great dictator for their energy supplies? How does that happen? Did the security services not know what he was like? Did the German government ignore them? It puts Merkel in an entirely new light!

It's barely credible!

Yes I was surprised also. Warnings from 2018 just passed me by, I think we just saw this a sabre rattling at the time. Germany gets of sizable chunk of their energy from Russia? So what? https://www.reuters.com/article/us-nato-summit-pipeline-idUSKBN1K10VI
Now it matters and has become a bargaining chip in Putin's campaign. So far he has not switched off the pipeline to Germany and the rest of Europe but he could do.
He will not get his dollars and Euros if he does though.

 

[BillTre]

Don't make the mistake of believing anything Putin says, without some kind of independent confirmation.

 

[Isopod]

"Speculation that Vladimir Putin is seriously ill has mounted after a report claimed he has been under near-constant monitoring by a cancer surgeon"

https://metro.co.uk/2022/04/01/puti...ncer-doctor-amid-health-speculation-16388716/

 

[Filip Larsen]

So far he has not switched off the pipeline to Germany and the rest of Europe but he could do.
He will not get his dollars and Euros if he does though.

Looks like he is trying to get his roubles instead (my appologies if this now day old news already has been mentioned here):
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60945248

 

[DennisN]

Russian officials have accused Ukraine of attacking a fuel depot inside Russia:
https://www.cnn.com/2022/04/01/europe/russia-ukraine-belgorod-fire-intl/index.html

Ukrainian officials responded: "Yeah, that was us, bud." /s

(I've heard different stories from different places, see below)

Some morale boosting for us who support Ukraine...

An interview regarding the attack on a fuel depot inside Russia (which may or may not have been done by Ukraine*) with Ukraine’s Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba (man, he plays it so very cool, I'm impressed):

Amanpour asks top Ukrainian official about strike in Russia. See his answer (CNN, Apr 1, 2022)


* By commenting like this, I think the Ukrainians are extracting the maximum out of this incident. Very clever. If they didn't do the attack they vaguely hint it could have been them (by the way he talks). If they did the attack, they very calmly deny it without strong language. It's putting uncertainty and doubt into Russian minds.

Edit: And I follow a Swedish military blog which has some good contributors in the comments, and they were confused by this attack. Some there think it was the Ukrainians, some think it was a false flag operation by Russia and some think it could have been Russians sabotaging themselves (due to a lack of will to fight).

And some clever comments on youtube under the video:

"Not a strike, it was a special fuel operation"
"RIA/TASS: Our brave fuel tanks destroyed multiple enemy's rockets with fire and protected our great country!"
"Maybe it was an April Fuel Joke"

 

[fresh_42]

The latest news here says all that is needed is an account at the Gazprom bank. You load the account with Euro, the bank converts it into Rubel and the business is financed according to the rules. Not really something to worry about.

FYI: States do not buy gas from states. Private distributors buy gas from private companies! Politics is only responsible to set up the framework. Please distinguish between the frame and the decisions made within the available frame. This is a huge difference. At least in free societies.

 

[artis]

The latest news here says all that is needed is an account at the Gazprom bank. You load the account with Euro, the bank converts it into Rubel and the business is financed according to the rules. Not really something to worry about.

FYI: States do not buy gas from states. Distributors buy gas from private companies! Politics is only responsible to set up the framework. Please distinguish between the frame and the decisions made within the available frame. This is a huge difference. At least in free societies.

It might be true on the German side, but realistically on the Russian side Gazprom is just an extension to Kremlin.
I haven't done my research on the German part I can only suspect some former politicians having a stake at the Nordstream pipeline but on the Russian side the pipe is a political tool of soft power.

I think it's a rule of thumb that every large project outside of Russia and China that is made and controlled by Russia and China (even if it's their private business sector doing so) is effectively a soft power arm of their government.Not sure about Germany but Russia so far has threatened to stop gas supplies to Ukraine and other countries based on politics. They have made countless import bans on products from Baltics every time they don't like something politically so any larger business with Russia is inevitably political in nature.

 

[PeroK]

The latest news here says all that is needed is an account at the Gazprom bank. You load the account with Euro, the bank converts it into Rubel and the business is financed according to the rules. Not really something to worry about.

FYI: States do not buy gas from states. Private distributors buy gas from private companies! Politics is only responsible to set up the framework. Please distinguish between the frame and the decisions made within the available frame. This is a huge difference. At least in free societies.

This is not the reality. Governments are fully involved in major infrastructure projects - airports, roads, gas pipelines etc. All of these require permission and support from the Government and cannot be simply private enterprises.

It seems to me you have tied yourself in knots trying to defend the indefensible. The majority of Germans, I suspect, are asking why they have no option but to fund the Russian war machine at this time, while offering humanitarian assistance to its victims.

You must be in a small minority who can't see that there are serious questions to answer about how Germany got itself caught in this situation.

 

[fresh_42]

This is not the reality. Governments are fully involved in major infrastructure projects - airports, roads, gas pipelines etc. All of these require permission and support from the Government and cannot be simply private enterprises.

QED. Framework and economic decisions. You distinguish between infrastructure and the good that uses it, but you do not distinguish between those who provide the infrastructure and those who use it! Ridiculous.

It seems to me you have tied yourself in knots trying to defend the indefensible.

I do not see it that way. It appears to me that you confuse multiple levels of the economy and form it in a way that suits you. Regardless of any disturbing facts.

The majority of Germans, I suspect, are asking why they have no option but to fund the Russian war machine at this time, while offering humanitarian assistance to its victims.

The majority of Germans want a cheap and reliable gas supply. And Russia is the cheapest provider. And the one who can be trusted most. I know you do not want to hear this since it doesn't match your prejudices. Well, personal opinions and economic facts are not necessarily the same thing.

You must be in a small minority of can't see that there are serious questions to answer about how Germany got itself caught in this situation.

I already answered this. Those who can read have a clear advantage. "This situation" is basically due to third-party participants, and changed political assessments. On a purely bilateral level, there is nothing wrong with the deal. Business always funds questionable activities. The list is long, very long. China, Saudi Arabia, USA, etc. It wasn't foreseeable until February that the political landscape changed so significantly. At least not from our point of view.

 

[artis]

The majority of Germans want a cheap and reliable gas supply. And Russia is the cheapest provider.

I think this is true. Germans so far have not felt guilt over something which they have little control over (Russian aggression) truth be told. Sure buying Russian gas after February 24 looks really bad from a moral standpoint there is no denying that but changing gas supplies takes years so if Germany wanted to not just feel free economically while using the cheapest safest provider but also factor in potential future moral issues they should have started diversifying years ago and the recent closure of the nuke plants definitely did not age well.

That being said I think it was important for Germany to join the sanctions as Germany is a key EU player. So it's good that Germany made the hard and economically troubling but necessary step. Arguably if they had failed to do so the criticism would be more than well placed

Here is a short but interesting article about how Germans think, written just two weeks before Ukraine invasion
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/why-germany-behaves-the-way-it-does/

There was also very little support for military backing of Ukraine within Germany back in 2014. This is in line with the conclusions reached in the previous article.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...d-little-support-for-military-aid-to-ukraine/

 

[pinball1970]

I think this is true. Germans so far have not felt guilt over something which they have little control over (Russian aggression) truth be told. Sure buying Russian gas after February 24 looks really bad from a moral standpoint there is no denying that but changing gas supplies takes years so if Germany wanted to not just feel free economically while using the cheapest safest provider but also factor in potential future moral issues they should have started diversifying years ago and the recent closure of the nuke plants definitely did not age well.

Here is a short but interesting article about how Germans think, written just two weeks before Ukraine invasion
https://warontherocks.com/2022/02/why-germany-behaves-the-way-it-does/

There was also very little support for military backing of Ukraine within Germany back in 2014. This is in line with the conclusions reached in the previous article.
https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-ta...d-little-support-for-military-aid-to-ukraine/

Yes this did not happen over night and this is where we are now. Like it or hate it this is globalization, resources over there and we need them over here.
If it turns out your supplier is doing something questionable then simply swap, say from Russia to Saudi? They have an excellent human rights record...
I don't think there is much point in saying that was a bad move, if you have a look in the purchase ledger you may be surprised where you sources your oranges from.
Putin has gone rogue and whilst always a possibility it was probably very unlikely when the papers were signed.
To this extent anyway. Everything I have read this morning suggests Friday came and went and the gas is still on.

 

[fresh_42]

What actually changed is, that gas all of a sudden is considered a political weapon. This is an entirely new role for what was once simply energy. Only with this changed point of view, it is morally questionable. Hence they are actually two different things. Mixing them up might be comfortable, however, it is factually wrong.

We strictly oppose the death penalty. Why don't you request stopping to make businesses with the US, since it funds a morally questionable system from our point of view?

 

[PeroK]

To this extent anyway. Everything I have read this morning suggests Friday came and went and the gas is still on.

The bills are not necessarily due on 1 April. Also, @Rive may be right that they'll reach a compromise where both can claim their demands have been met.

 

[fresh_42]

I think this is true. Germans so far have not felt guilt over something which they have little control over (Russian aggression) truth be told. Sure buying Russian gas after February 24 looks really bad from a moral standpoint there is no denying that but changing gas supplies takes years so if Germany wanted to not just feel free economically while using the cheapest safest provider but also factor in potential future moral issues they should have started diversifying years ago and the recent closure of the nuke plants definitely did not age well.

By the way: do you know where the Baltic countries get their electrical power from?

Just saying.

 

[PeroK]

We strictly oppose the death penalty. Why don't you request stopping to make businesses with the US, since it funds a morally questionable system from our point of view?

This a fallacy of scale. There may be a lot of things you don't like about the US, but all sins are not equivalent. That executing convicted criminals after due process of law is morally no different from an unprovoked attack on Ukraine?

Not only is there a moral dimension, but the US death penalty is not directly a threat to Germany's national security. Whereas, had the Russian invasion of Ukraine been completely successful and they were now sizing up Poland and the other neighbouring countries then Germany's own security would be in danger. At what point would you become morally commited?

 

[fresh_42]

This a fallacy of scale. There may be a lot of things you don't like about the US, but all sins are not equivalent. That executing convicted criminals after due process of law is morally no different from an unprovoked attack on Ukraine?

Yes, measuring by scales that fit your opinions isn't new. It's tiring to conform to your respective hypocrisies.

Not only is there a moral dimension, but the US death penalty is not directly a threat to Germany's national security.

Neither is Russia.

Whereas, had the Russian invasion of Ukraine been completely successful and they were now sizing up Poland and the other neighbouring countries are you still morally uncommited?

Speculations, speculations, speculations.

You are debating in the same manner as Putin does. Learned during the cold war and hasn't been revised ever since.

 

[artis]

By the way: do you know where the Baltic countries get their electrical power from?

Just saying.

I think you misunderstood me, I wasn't attacking Germany's positions merely acknowledging the realities of current situation.
I am well aware that Baltics get the missing electricity from Russia, especially since Europe forced Lithuanians to close down the Ignalina NPP before schedule which I believe was unnecessary.
For total peace of mind Baltics would need a single NPP with say 2 reactors. But as with Germany there are many people here who can't settle on anything. They don't want Russian energy, they don't want nuclear, they even hate wind if it's close to home but they want lots of energy and cheap prices. Go figure...

 

[PeroK]

Neither is Russia.

Your government doesn't agree with you as a) it is part of NATO and b) it has drastically increased its defence spending in response to the Russian invasion.

When Putin talks about the West as "an empire of lies", he means Germany as well. However much you like to think he's your buddy!

I agree with this journalist:

https://www.politico.eu/article/put...gn-policy-ukraine-war-invasion-nord-stream-2/

 

[fresh_42]

Your government doesn't agree with you

That is actually a longer list than just Russia's potential threat. To derive truth from this fact does not add truth, only propaganda. Right and wrong in political discussions cut both ways.

 

[DennisN]

I haven't read all the posts above about gas, but if I'm not mistaken Italy is also currently dependent on gas from the little Kremlin Tsar.

Edit: Yes.

Italy needs at least 3 years to replace Russian gas imports, minister says (Reuters, March 16, 2022)

Rome imports around 30 billion cubic metres (bcm) of gas from Russia every year - some 40% of its total gas imports - and is looking to diversify its energy supplies in response to Moscow's invasion of Ukraine.

 

[Frabjous]

@fresh_42 What conditions do you believe will be required in Ukraine for Germany to begin to wind down sanctions against Russia?

 

[fresh_42]

@fresh_42 What conditions do you believe will be required in Ukraine for Germany to begin to wind down sanctions against Russia?

This isn't Germany's decision. They will follow the EU decision, or if you like it specifically, then France.

The situation got totally out of control. It will be hard to settle this conflict - as we can see from the current negotiations.

 

[pinball1970]

Right and wrong in political discussions cut both ways.

This is a good example of why politics is not allowed on pf. If I was a mentor I would have jumped in by now and said come on guys...

We (Germany, UK Italy) are not suffering yet and I hope he does pull the plug, we will manage and Putin will have to do without that 300 Million dollars a day. (Edit Million, )
Shooting himself in the foot.

1000s killed and homeless, 4 million displaced and 1000s waiting safe passage. We agree Putin is wrong and who is suffering.

 

[Frabjous]

This isn't Germany's decision. They will follow the EU decision, or if you like it specifically, then France.

The situation got totally out of control. It will be hard to settle this conflict - as we can see from the current negotiations.

Will the lifting of EU sanctions require a unanimous vote?

 

[pinball1970]

The bills are not necessarily due on 1 April. Also, @Rive may be right that they'll reach a compromise where both can claim their demands have been met.

Yes probably. Business as usual seems like a twisted distortion of ethics whilst Russia are doing what they are doing.
What is becoming more apparent to me in all this is how important the Ukraine has become to European security, this could have been Putins gateway to the west. Imagine if the Ukraine would have just rolled over? Unwilling to take on a vast army? Putting civilian lives and homes at risk?
This is exactly what has happened despite post covid, economic difficulty they have not rolled over, they have taken them on and beaten them back. Instead of having a large strategic area occupied and controlled by Russia. Then in a few months, air bases, barracks and missile silos possibly?
I know many have said that was not on the cards but ambitions can change when a first draft exceeds expectations and this is Putin

 

[DennisN]

Regarding playing the blame game, I'm of the following opinion:

First and foremost there is one regime, and one person in particular, to blame for the situation. It is the aggressor.

Then there could be argued that there's a whole bunch of other countries and persons who could be "blamed" in hindsight* for (1) enabling Putin and his regime, (2) pampering him, (3) treating him much like a democratically elected president would be treated and (4) doing business with him and his oligarchs and (5) turning a blind eye to his previous aggressions etc.

E.g. the US and UK also very much belong in this bunch in my opinion, but I won't go into detail because it could very quickly become political, and that is not my intention. And I'm personally not interested in playing any "retrospective blame game", because what the West needs now is unity and focusing on the here and now.
That's how I see it.

* And hindsight is always 20/20.

P.S. There's even a sort of blame game going on in Sweden right now, both regarding the fact that (1) we are not members of NATO (which is argued would make us more safe at the moment) and (2) that we downsized our military during a long period after the Cold War ended. We have built it up a bit since then, but after Putin's invasion of Ukraine, we have suddenly decided to invest more in our military. We have however for many years before been observing a gradual building up of boldness regarding various Russian military maneuvers in e.g. the Baltic Sea. So we haven't been unaware there has been a shift over the years in Russia's military stance.

 

[fresh_42]

Will the lifting of EU sanctions require a unanimous vote?

Barely. It will be a common decision after a lot of talks.

 

[Frabjous]

Barely. It will be a common decision after a lot of talks.

Could an EU country unilaterally choose to lift sanctions?

 

[fresh_42]

Could an EU country unilaterally choose to lift sanctions?

Good question. I think, theoretically yes, de facto no. E.g. IIRC then Hungary hasn't imposed all sanctions.

 

[DennisN]

A very interesting interview today with ex-Russian official Vladimir Milov about what hears from other officials in Russia. He also says that he thinks Putin is currently living inside a bubble of his own making.

Ex-Russian official says Putin's days are numbered (CNN, Apr 2, 2022)
Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister and now an adviser to opposition leader Alexy Navalny, argues that Putin's days in office are numbered because of the backlash to his invasion of Ukraine.

 

[PeroK]

Vladimir Milov, a former Russian deputy energy minister and now an adviser to opposition leader Alexy Navalny, argues that Putin's days in office are numbered because of the backlash to his invasion of Ukraine.

I'll believe it when I see it.

 

[DennisN]

I'll believe it when I see it.

I agree. We'll see.

 

[256bits]

that we have to build an LNG terminal?

And those just don't pop-up overnight.
Generally 10 years in the planning.

 

[wrobel]

All people are connected with each other just by unity of the humankind. I dislike mutual blames. The responsibility is collective as usual. Everybody pays debts of everybody independently on whether he wants it or not. Russian society has not managed to stop elevation of this dictatorship and the war. Western Europe and USA have welcomed Putin's oligarchs and their stolen money till the last events. It is time to pay the bills.

 

[Office_Shredder]

And those just don't pop-up overnight.
Generally 10 years in the planning.

This isn't a physical limitation, it's mostly because of bureaucratic slowness and not willing to spend too much money planning/parallelizng work.

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Costa_Azul_LNG

Took 4 years from contract signed to actual production open, and this was building the full port from scratch, including ecological assessment and remedy. If, say, Russia cut off gas imports today and half of Germany was going to freeze to death next winter, I bet something could be built in the next six months to help with the situation.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Badak_NGL

Construction of the refinery began on November 26, 1974, and was completed 36 months later on July 5, 1977, with the construction of the first LNG train (train A). The first refinery was inaugurated on August 1, 1977, and the first shipment of LNG was carried out on August 9, 1977, to

3 years start to finish.

 

[BillTre]

Shooting himself in the foot.

Guess you mean in the other foot, however, I am losing count of how many of his feet he has shot by now.

 

[neilparker62]

All people are connected with each other just by unity of the humankind. I dislike mutual blames. The responsibility is collective as usual. Everybody pays debts of everybody independently on whether he wants it or not. Russian society has not managed to stop elevation of this dictatorship and the war. Western Europe and USA have welcomed Putin's oligarchs and their stolen money till the last events. It is time to pay the bills.

to the above.

Re blame game - all agree it seems although blame is an inevitable part of the diplomatic 'game'! Perhaps we could focus attention on the difficult question of trying to envisage (at least in our own minds) how this conflict could conceivably be resolved - as speedily as possible? After all the thread topic is "Really worried about Ukraine" and so we should be!

 

[geordief]

to the above.

Re blame game - all agree it seems although blame is an inevitable part of the diplomatic 'game'! Perhaps we could focus attention on the difficult question of trying to envisage (at least in our own minds) how this conflict could conceivably be resolved - as speedily as possible? After all the thread topic is "Really worried about Ukraine" and so we should be!

As much pressure on Russia as possible ? To force them to come to the negotiating table and to leave their poison potions behind this time.

 

[DennisN]

Perhaps we could focus attention on the difficult question of trying to envisage (at least in our own minds) how this conflict could conceivably be resolved - as speedily as possible? After all the thread topic is "Really worried about Ukraine" and so we should be!

I think the West is basically on the right track.
I'm also quite certain there a various things going on we don't know about, and shouldn't know about. I won't be specific.

With Putin's regime (right now), I think it is very, very important to show strength, decisiveness, unity and perserverance up to the limit of not going to war.

With this in mind, put as much pressure as possible on the regime, on all possible fronts.

Financial offensives (continued sanctions of course, and possibly new) and persistently hunt down and strangle every possible bit of finance that can be used to support the regime. The holy grail here is this: If we could severely lessen Putin's income from oil and gas we will deal a really, really big blow to his economy.

Information campaigns (truth) and psychological operations (cleverly formulated truths) targeted at both Putin's henchmen and the Russian people.

Find and cultivate more allies in the world (that is, more than the countries currently having sanctions put in place) through diplomatic means. I'm thinking of India for example, which is sitting sort of on the fence (for various reasons).

Support Ukraine with military and humanitarian aid as much as possible (and as much as is needed).
At the moment, I don't think there should be any restraint on providing weapons of any conventional kind, at least that's my opinion (because I think it is extremely important to stop Putin in Ukraine, not just because of what he's done, but what he possibly could do in the near future). And, after all, the Ukrainians have a right to defend themselves and their country according to international law.

There are probably more things that could be done which I can't think of at the moment (I'm a little tired).

 

[Frabjous]

An interesting sentence from The Economist (26 March)
”Belarusian rail workers have reportedly sabotaged rail links with Ukraine to stop supplies from reaching the invaders.”

 

[phinds]

An interesting sentence from The Economist (26 March)
”Belarusian rail workers have reportedly sabotaged rail links with Ukraine to stop supplies from reaching the invaders.”

Belarusian special forces have reportedly started guard duties along key railways into Ukraine following successful acts of sabotage by railway workers in recent days. Patrols are allegedly underway in the Gomel and Brest region’s in the Belarusian border areas with Ukraine.

https://www.railtech.com/infrastruc...ding-railways-following-sabotage/?gdpr=accept

 

[DennisN]

According to Wikipedia:

The Battle of Kyiv (2022) is over.
Result: Ukrainian victory.

The Kyiv offensive (2022) is over.
Result: Major Ukrainian victory.

Ukrainian forces regain control of the entirety of Kyiv Oblast.

Let's continue to help them defend their country and their people and hopefully regain as much lost territority as possible!

 

[Frabjous]

According to Wikipedia:

The Battle of Kyiv (2022) is over.
Result: Ukrainian victory.

The Kyiv offensive (2022) is over.
Result: Major Ukrainian victory.

While not trying to be pro-Russian/anti-Ukranian, I do not believe Wikipedia can make these determinations. While it might turn out to be true, we do not know what is going to happen tomorrow (literally). These things are determined after a suitable amount of time has past. News should not be confused with history.