Science Addresses Recent increase in MLB Home Runs

[BillTre]

The past year and a half have seen an unexplained increase in MLB home runs.
Interesting article.
Bounciness, weight, and air resistance seem to be involved.

 

[DrClaude]

Very interesting article. I am not surprised that such small changes in the ball have such an effect on the number of home runs.

 

[BillTre]

A couple of asides:

1) I would expect fastballs to be faster if the ball has less air resistance and breaking pitches should not break so much for the same reason.

2) I would add that analytics associated with baseball (also basketball) has been making huge strides recently.
Well beyond the things discussed in Moneyball (which is a fun read).

In MLB:

• every pitch is logged electronically about where it crosses the plate and how fast it is going
• every swing of the bat is logged for a number of traits, including speed of swing and angle of swing (mentioned in article)
• every hit ball is logged for the speed and angle it takes when it leaves the bat

Since there are a lot of statheads (dare I say numberskulls) interested in baseball, there are all kinds of new stats due to this new information.

 

[Bystander]

(dare I say numberskulls)

+1!

 

[BillTre]

Here is a different article from the NY Times on this issue.
These guys claim to have not figured it out.

 

[DrClaude]

Here is a different article from the NY Times on this issue.
These guys claim to have not figured it out.

This is getting ridiculous. Yes, they have figured out that the balls now have a lower drag coefficient. No, they can't identify anything in the manufacturing process that would explain this change in drag.

This is reminiscent of the bad philosophy attitude that if science doesn't know everything, then it knows nothing.

Edit: Just to clarify, it is the reporting in the article I am calling ridiculous, not @BillTre

 

[BillTre]

Sports Guys, especially Baseball (which has a long history of details and statistics) Sports Guys, love to drill down on all kinds of minutia.
And technical stuff makes it better!
Lots of fun!

 

[DrClaude]

Sports Guys, especially Baseball (which has a long history of details and statistics) Sports Guys, love to drill down on all kinds of minutia.
And technical stuff makes it better!
Lots of fun!

I completely agree. Heck, I'm borderline one of those Baseball Sports Guys.

Maybe the fault lies in the title of the piece: M.L.B. Hired Scientists to Explain Why Home Runs Have Surged. They Couldn’t. That's not true. They could explain it, just not completely.

 

[BillTre]

Well, there is always some little thing that can be used to drive something through the media. This is rewarding in some way.

Also there is the sports thing of always looking for any little advantage. Especially, in baseball (which is pretty statitical), little things can matter.
Its an attitude I endorse.
Its direction, however can be problematic.

 

[Baluncore]

So what about confounding variables?
1. Has there been a change in computation of player remuneration based on performance.
2. Placebo effect, do the players believe the balls are more bouncy and so select a homer strategy, and hit the ball harder.