Selecting from an Urn. Conditional probability

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SUMMARY

The discussion centers on calculating conditional probability in a scenario involving a box containing 4 red balls and 6 white balls. The problem requires finding the probability of drawing 1 red ball and 2 white balls, given that at least 2 of the drawn balls are white. The correct probability is determined to be 3/4, contrasting with an initial incorrect assumption of 1/2. Key insights involve understanding the implications of conditional probability and the necessity of considering all possible outcomes.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of conditional probability
  • Familiarity with combinatorial counting techniques
  • Knowledge of probability notation and terminology
  • Ability to calculate probabilities without replacement
NEXT STEPS
  • Study the principles of conditional probability in depth
  • Learn about combinatorial methods for calculating probabilities
  • Explore examples of probability problems involving drawing without replacement
  • Investigate the use of Bayes' theorem in conditional probability scenarios
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Students studying probability theory, educators teaching statistics, and anyone interested in mastering conditional probability problems.

torquerotates
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Homework Statement



A box contains 4 red balls and 6 white balls. A sample size of 3 is drawn without replacement from the box. What is the probability of obtaining 1 red ball and 2 white balls given that at least 2 of the balls in the sample are white?

Homework Equations





The Attempt at a Solution


Well if I got at least two white balls that means that I either have 2W or 3W. If I have 2W, then I can chose among the remaining 4W and 4R. Hence the probability is 1/2 given that i already otained 2W. If i have 3W, the probability is 0 given that i already obtained 2W. Hence my answer is 1/2. BUT... I am wrong. the answer is 3/4. I am not sure where i went wrong here.
 
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hi torquerotates! :smile:
torquerotates said:
What is the probability of obtaining 1 red ball and 2 white balls given that at least 2 of the balls in the sample are white?

If I have 2W, then I can chose …

no, that's if the question says "given that the first 2 of the balls in the sample are white"

(or any particular pair)

find P(W ≥ 2) and P(W = 2) :wink:
 

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