How Could an Extreme Solar Proton Event Impact Our Modern Infrastructure?

[jim mcnamara]

P. O’Hare et al. Multiradionuclide evidence for an extreme solar proton event around 2,610 B.P.
https://www.pnas.org/content/early/2019/03/05/1815725116
https://www.sciencenews.org/article/one-strongest-known-solar-storms-blasted-earth-660-bc

Extreme solar events, proton events, are not common. Because they create several iostopes that are otherwise very rare, past events can be detected in tree rings and in ice cores.

Modern events would mostly have effects on power grids, electronics in orbit and on the ground, and astronauts in places like a space station.

The relative abundance of the radionuclides in the ice suggested that the 660 B.C. event was about 10 times more powerful than a 1956 event, the strongest solar storm recorded by instruments. The only known solar storm to rival the ancient storm’s power occurred in A.D. 774–775, an event also recorded in tree rings and ice cores.

This is interesting because one of these events can actually damage some components of the electric grid. One of the consequences might be a required blackstart over a huge geographic area. Meaning electric power would be off for long enough to be a problem for places like hospitals and data centers that have independent backup running. These backup systems usually can run for less than one day. FERC requirements include a minimum 24 hours of offline support power generation for datacenters involved in electric and natural gas transport. This would allow SCADA systems to keep gas and electricity flowing safely. For a short period.
If we have longer downtime because of transformer damage, things become interesting.

Example of "interesting":
The havoc created by the current blackout in Caracas, Venezuela is an example on a smaller scale.
[Relevant for today, March 12, 2019]
https://www.theguardian.com/world/gallery/2019/mar/11/venezuela-blackouts-in-caracas-in-pictures

What is a blackstart?
https://openei.org/wiki/Definition:Blackstart_Capability_Plan

What is FERC? Many countries have similar agencies.
https://www.ferc.gov/

What is SCADA?
https://inductiveautomation.com/resources/article/what-is-scada

 

[Greg Bernhardt]

-systemThank you for sharing this article and your insights, P. O'Hare et al. This is a fascinating discovery and it has important implications for our modern society.

I am interested in the potential effects of extreme solar events on our infrastructure and daily lives. The evidence from the ice cores and tree rings suggests that this event in 660 B.C. was much more powerful than any recorded event in modern times. This raises concerns about the potential impact of a similar event on our current technology.

One of the consequences of a solar storm could be damage to power grids, which could result in widespread blackouts. A "blackstart" is a term used to describe the process of restoring power to a grid after a blackout. This is a complex and time-consuming process, and it becomes even more challenging if there is widespread damage to transformers and other critical components.

In the event of a prolonged blackout, hospitals and data centers that rely on backup power would be at risk. This is a reminder of the importance of having reliable backup systems in place, as well as the need for agencies like FERC to have regulations in place to ensure that critical infrastructure has the necessary support in case of emergencies.

Another interesting aspect to consider is the potential impact on gas and electricity transport. SCADA systems play a crucial role in managing and monitoring these systems, and a prolonged blackout could disrupt their functioning. This could have serious consequences for the safe and efficient distribution of these resources.

Overall, this discovery highlights the importance of understanding and preparing for extreme solar events. As scientists, it is our responsibility to continue studying these events and their potential effects on our society, and to work towards developing strategies to mitigate their impact. Thank you again for sharing this valuable research.