If this molecule were to undergo a reaction, what would determine which resonance structure is used for said reaction?
Good question. We can take any of the three initial resonance structures to react with, as they are all the same. By picking up the molecule and flip flopping or spinning them, we can achieve any of the 3 resonance structures. This is because carbonate is Trigonal planar and rather symmetrical. If we had some models in your hand, this would be easier to explain.
Is it simple probability?
In an overall sense, yes. Right now, the ability for an atom to stabilize a charge for the reaction is most significant. Electronegativity contributes greatly in this aspect.
You said something about some states being better than others - does this mean that one is more likely to observe this state?
One would observe the Lewis Structure (man made) using electron pushing arrows to demonstrate the flow of electrons for the reaction mechanism. Important considerations are the solution the reaction is taking place in, concentrations, temperatures and possible side reactions. One may use different chemicals to increase or decrease the probability of reaction with a specific desired resonance structure.
If the pi bond is stronger and shorter than the two sigmas, yet all three bonds are observed to be the same length, how can we verify vespr theory's assertion that this bond even exists?
Pi bonds are shorter and stronger than sigmas. This is what all 3 structures would look like together.
http://www.biologie.uni-hamburg.de/b-online/library/Newton/Chy251_253/Lectures/Resonance/ResonanceHybrid.GIF
Think of the oxygen atoms having a -2/3 charge and the bonds being equal lengths.
I'm not entirely sure of your approach to the vespr question. Experiments are usually confirmed by laboratory analysis through the machines mentioned earlier.
Or is all of this a type of quantum mechanical effect?
We can choose to view and discuss reactions with various levels of depth and quantum chemistry is certainly one of them.