Student Loan Bubble: Bursting or Bailout?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the potential for a student loan bubble to burst and the implications of such an event for students and the broader economy. Participants explore the concept of bailouts, the impact of for-profit colleges, and the relationship between student loan defaults and government policies.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants question whether a student loan bubble will burst and what consequences that might have for students and the economy.
  • There is a suggestion that student loan collections could be paused until graduates find employment, although this is described as idealistic.
  • Concerns are raised about predatory lending practices at for-profit colleges, which are noted to have higher default rates compared to public institutions.
  • Some participants argue that the existence of for-profit schools is driven by the availability of easy money from student loans.
  • One participant proposes that the repayment rates of graduates should influence the amount of loan money schools can access, suggesting that current default rates are a crude measure.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express multiple competing views regarding the nature of the student loan system, the role of for-profit colleges, and the effectiveness of current policies. There is no consensus on whether a bubble will burst or the best approach to managing student loans.

Contextual Notes

Participants highlight limitations in current measures of loan repayment and default rates, suggesting that these may not accurately reflect the financial health of graduates or the institutions themselves.

Willowz
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I'm a little behind on this topic. Will there be a student loan bubble burst? What consequences does that carry for students and everyone else? I don't understand why there would be a bailout? This might sound a bit idealistic, but could they stop collecting debts with percentage until a student would find a job, and then they would resume collecting?

Regarding this: http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-street/archives/2011/11/when_will_the_student_loan.html
 
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Willowz said:
I'm a little behind on this topic. Will there be a student loan bubble burst? What consequences does that carry for students and everyone else? I don't understand why there would be a bailout? This might sound a bit idealistic, but could they stop collecting debts with percentage until a student would find a job, and then they would resume collecting?

Regarding this: http://www.businessweek.com/finance/occupy-wall-street/archives/2011/11/when_will_the_student_loan.html

This is worth a read - a type of predatory lending.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/12/for-profit-colleges-student-loan-_n_959058.html
"The high number of student loan defaults at for-profit institutions has prompted heightened government scrutiny in recent years, amid evidence that some schools aggressively market their programs to students but fail to deliver on the promise of careers. For-profit schools typically cost nearly twice as much as public colleges and universities, and students on average graduate with much higher student loan debt."

***

http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/blog/2011/09/leading-the-list-colleges-with.html

"In 2009, the latest data available, for-profit schools in the U.S. had an average 15 percent default rate, compared with 7.2 percent at public schools and 4.6 percent at private nonprofit institutions, according to the U.S. Department of Education. Overall, the rate stood at 8.8 percent. That’s nothing compared with the 1980s, when the national student loan default rate surged, peaking at 22.4 percent by 1990 thanks mainly to elevated default levels at for-profit colleges.
According to a Dayton Daily News article from 1990, there were numerous trade schools in the state with student loan default rates above 40 percent, and in a few schools above 70 percent and 80 percent.
Imagine a school with an 81.5 percent student loan default rate, with the government continuing to back loans to students heading to the school. Insanity, right? Well, that’s what the government thought, too. Congress passed a law in the early 1990s saying the federal government wouldn’t back loans to students at schools where default rates had gotten too high. Today, if a school has a 25 percent student loan default rate for three years, it can lose eligibility for government-backed student loans."


****

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/12/education-forprofit-idUSS1E78B0UY20110912
 
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On the article's comment about for-profit schools: the whole reason they're competitive (or exist at all in the large number they do) is because there is lots of easy money for schools.
 
WhoWee said:
This is worth a read - a type of predatory lending.

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2011/09/12/for-profit-colleges-student-loan-_n_959058.html
"The high number of student loan defaults at for-profit institutions has prompted heightened government scrutiny in recent years, amid evidence that some schools aggressively market their programs to students but fail to deliver on the promise of careers. For-profit schools typically cost nearly twice as much as public colleges and universities, and students on average graduate with much higher student loan debt."

***

http://www.bizjournals.com/columbus/blog/2011/09/leading-the-list-colleges-with.html

"In 2009, the latest data available, for-profit schools in the U.S. had an average 15 percent default rate, compared with 7.2 percent at public schools and 4.6 percent at private nonprofit institutions, according to the U.S. Department of Education. Overall, the rate stood at 8.8 percent. That’s nothing compared with the 1980s, when the national student loan default rate surged, peaking at 22.4 percent by 1990 thanks mainly to elevated default levels at for-profit colleges.
According to a Dayton Daily News article from 1990, there were numerous trade schools in the state with student loan default rates above 40 percent, and in a few schools above 70 percent and 80 percent.
Imagine a school with an 81.5 percent student loan default rate, with the government continuing to back loans to students heading to the school. Insanity, right? Well, that’s what the government thought, too. Congress passed a law in the early 1990s saying the federal government wouldn’t back loans to students at schools where default rates had gotten too high. Today, if a school has a 25 percent student loan default rate for three years, it can lose eligibility for government-backed student loans."


****

http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/09/12/education-forprofit-idUSS1E78B0UY20110912

Student loans have to be be paid by law so a default is often just a temporary shortfall. I agree that the repayment rate should effect the amount of loan money schools are allowed. However, I think the default rate is a crude measure of this. Post graduate tax revenue could also be used as a basis for how much student loan money a school is allowed.
 
Nice finds, John. I knew there was a reason I chose a public university!
 

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