Swine Flu: Potential Threat to Human Species?

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SUMMARY

The forum discussion centers on the potential threat of a new strain of swine flu (H1N1) emerging from Mexico and affecting the United States, particularly California and Texas. Dr. Jay Steinberg, an infectious disease specialist, highlights that while the strain is novel, it currently meets only one criterion for a pandemic. Historical patterns suggest flu pandemics occur approximately every 20 years, raising concerns about the current outbreak. The CDC reports that the strain has shown resistance to some antiviral drugs, and the majority of severe cases in Mexico have affected young, otherwise healthy adults, which deviates from typical flu patterns.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of influenza virus strains, specifically H1N1.
  • Knowledge of antiviral medications, including oseltamivir and zanamivir.
  • Familiarity with pandemic definitions and criteria.
  • Awareness of public health responses to viral outbreaks.
NEXT STEPS
  • Research the history and impact of past influenza pandemics, particularly the 1918 Spanish flu.
  • Learn about the mechanisms of antiviral resistance in influenza viruses.
  • Investigate the role of public health organizations like the CDC in managing outbreaks.
  • Explore the genetic reassortment of influenza viruses and its implications for vaccine development.
USEFUL FOR

Public health officials, epidemiologists, healthcare professionals, and anyone interested in infectious disease management and pandemic preparedness.

  • #241
Just to note that mutations have been confirmed, but that the mutations at this point, do not seem to make H1N1 more virulent. Also, no confirmed cases outside of the Netherlands are found. http://www.promedmail.org/pls/otn/f?p=2400:1001:50943::NO::F2400_P1001_BACK_PAGE,F2400_P1001_PUB_MAIL_ID:1010,79432
 
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  • #242
B. Elliott said:
And to think, on a yearly basis the typical seasonal flu ends up killing over 30,000 people in the US alone.

As many others, you fail to grasp the difference between a pandemic influenza and a seasonal influenza. It is not primarily about fatalities.
 
  • #243
I've read that about 10% of the people who die from Swine flu were healthy young people. So, even if the Swine flu pandemic turns out to be less deadly overall than ordinary flu, it will have far more devastating consequences.
 

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