twofish-quant said:
I don't think that it is. The number of people that get tenure track is 1 in 5, but I think that's higher than the "success rate" for showbiz or professional sports. One thing that these fields have in common is that feast or famine. Tiny differences in inputs make huge differences in outcomes. If you are slightly better or luckier, then there is a positive feedback cycle that pushes you up or down.
I agree completely.
Say for example, you have to roughly equal undergrads. Both do a reseach internship in their first summer. One ends up on a project that turns into a hot area over the next decade. Even though she's essentially turning the crank in the lab, she does enough work to produce some good results that a post-doc on the project quickly writes up. She ends up with three solid publications before entering graduate school. The other works his butt off that same summer on a very similar project, but the results aren't quite so successful because hey, it's research. He ends up with some good experience, but no publications.
She receives a prestigious scholarship for graduate school. She doesn't have to TA and can focus on her project full time. She also has the advantage of already having experience in a hot field. She wins a young investigators award at a conference.
He gets into graduate school, but gets no additional funding beyond a standard stipend. As a consequence, he has to TA and take on a part-time job. It take him longer to finish, and he has no funding to attend conferences.
She gets a prestigious post-doc. Her field is now super-hot and she's a leading expert in it. She earns a few decent grants which demonstrate a clear ability to bring income into a department, which then make her a prime candidate for a tenture-track position.
His field is quickly becoming obsolete and when he eventually graduates, there are no post-doctoral positions for him, so he has to compete with others with more experience for a post-doc in an area that's brand new for him.
And these are solid, tangible examples. I think there can be a psychological effect there as well. People with a history of doing well are often treated better than those with a mediocre history, even when their current performance is the same. Anyway, you get the idea - subtle, arbitrary differences in initial conditions can make huge differences in outcomes.