Understanding the Stock Exchange: A Beginner's Guide

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around understanding the stock exchange, including its mechanics, the concept of ownership through shares, the implications of IPOs, and the nature of investing in stocks. Participants explore various perspectives on whether stock trading is a gamble or a skill-based endeavor, along with the economic significance of stock markets.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Debate/contested
  • Technical explanation
  • Conceptual clarification

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants explain that a share of stock represents ownership in a company and that the stock market is where these shares are bought and sold based on company performance.
  • Questions arise about how to buy and sell shares, with mentions of traditional brokers versus online platforms.
  • Initial Public Offerings (IPOs) are defined as the first sale of a company's stock to the public.
  • There is a debate on whether making money in the stock market is a gamble; some argue it is dependent on company performance and market demand, while others suggest it can be a game of skill, especially over the long term.
  • One viewpoint suggests that the stock market is efficient, reflecting all available information, while another counters that this notion is flawed and that there are opportunities for profit.
  • Participants mention the psychological aspects of trading and how market behavior can be influenced by mass psychology.
  • Some claim that long-term investing tends to yield positive returns, while others highlight the risks and potential for losses, especially for those who buy at market peaks.
  • There are anecdotes about non-expert investors, such as monkeys or dartboards, outperforming professionals, raising questions about the relevance of knowledge in stock trading.
  • Concerns are expressed regarding the broader economic implications of stock market performance on the global economy.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on whether stock trading is primarily a gamble or a skill-based activity. There is no consensus on the efficiency of the market or the implications of trading strategies, indicating a range of competing perspectives.

Contextual Notes

Participants acknowledge various factors influencing stock market performance, including psychological behaviors and market efficiency, but these remain unresolved and are subject to differing interpretations.

  • #31
These issues are still being carefully scrutinized by academicians.

This is a very good article by John Cochrane, author of a graduate financial economics textbook called Asset Pricing. It's pretty good at covering some fairly recent academic studies.

http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/john.cochrane/research/Papers/ep3Q99_3.pdf

Also, books by academicians like Andrew Lo of MIT (Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, and Econometrics of Financial Markets) are worth checking out. The first is probably better suited for a layperson.
 
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  • #32
hello there

well i have a few questions to ask, so any advise would be helpful thank you
now the thing that i don't understand is that i have looked at brokerage reports on the same company, but from different investment banks, and they all seem to have different estimates, now obviously only one of them is going to be the closest to the future price, so how could it be reliable, I mean could some of these reports be biased? like if an investment bank has invested money into a company, wouldn't it also advise its investors to also invest into that same company? or is there some kind of law to stop them from doing things like that, and if there is how could anybody find out that the investment bank is doing such a thing.

also if all these reports give different prices wouldn't an investor be better of if he made guesses and go witht he gamble?

also these reports wouldn't they need to be updated everyday especially since different things happen in this world, that would be very time consuming especially considering that there are millions of companies listed in the world.

is the stock price suppose to converge to these estimated prices on these reports if so in what period?

lastly if we had unlimited human resourse, and access to all the public information, would it be possible to predict the companies future price over the next year or so and actually come very close to the actual movements in the stock price? from my understanding the best accurate estimate anybody can make would be tomorows, but how about in a year time?

thank you

steven
 
  • #33
juvenal said:
These issues are still being carefully scrutinized by academicians.

This is a very good article by John Cochrane, author of a graduate financial economics textbook called Asset Pricing. It's pretty good at covering some fairly recent academic studies.

http://gsbwww.uchicago.edu/fac/john.cochrane/research/Papers/ep3Q99_3.pdf

Also, books by academicians like Andrew Lo of MIT (Non-Random Walk Down Wall Street, and Econometrics of Financial Markets) are worth checking out. The first is probably better suited for a layperson.

hello there

by the way what is a layperson? and thanxs these links look pretty interesting

steven
 
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  • #34
steven187 said:
what is a layperson?
A non-expert, as in "clergy and laity."
 

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