News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #511
Interesting video from a Palin rally:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KjxzmaXAg9E

At least her supporters are knowledgeable on the issues.
 
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  • #512
Woohooo! Real Clear Politics has changed Virginia from undecided, to leaning Obama, which puts him at 277 - over the top! - by their count.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/
 
  • #513
lowly pion, that video is scary.

but i guess that explains sarah palin's appeal. at least i can believe the people on that video could possibly support her.

it is just sobering to be reminded that people like that vote here and live here.

of course gw got some votes too, but she seems a couple notches down from him in someways.
 
  • #514
don't celebrate yet ivan, it's a long way to november 4.

just compare nobel prize winning al gore to that nincompoop we got instead, and remember how foolish is the us electorate.
 
  • #515
Meh, it was just the peace prize.
 
  • #516
WASHINGTON (CNN) -- Virginia hasn't backed a Democrat for president in 44 years, but economic concerns and changing demographics are giving Sen. Barack Obama a chance to steal the once reliably red state from Republicans.

http://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/10/09/virginia.battleground/index.html

A Virginia Commonwealth University poll taken May 12-18 had McCain leading 47 percent to 39 percent.

But as the financial crisis has shaken voters' confidence in the economy, Obama has begun to open a lead in the state, as he has done in other battleground states.

The latest CNN poll of polls has Obama leading McCain 49 percent to 45 percent. A CNN/TIME/Opinion Research Corporation poll conducted September 28-30 shows Obama with an even bigger lead over McCain, 53 percent to 44 percent. The CNN poll's margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6FWenrdKswE

Bluegrass legend Ralph Stanley endorsed Obama, saying that Obama is concerned about the people, which he seems, but that Obama will cut taxes for average folks, not big business, that Obama will create 5 million new jobs (I wish presidential candidates would not promise things that are beyond their control), and help folks send their kids to college (again there are already institutions that finance college expenses).

I think presidents and candidates should stick to the job description - e.g. Commander in Chief and national security, foreign affairs and trade, and oversight of Congress.

I was concerned to hear a TV reported saying that the group of indepedent voters he was interviewing were wondering how the next president was going to help them pay their bills! It is not the presidents job to help citizens pay their bills. It is every citizens job to get an education that enables them to get a job with which to pay bills - and it is every citizens responsibility to live within their means. If somebody wants more, then they need to work hard to get the necessary education and then the job that pays more.

In health care - the health care system needs fixing - and that means removing unnecessary middle persons who simply add to the overhead. The ordinary citizen needs to maintain a healthy lifestyle so as to preclude the preventable illnesses such as cardio-pulmonary diseases, cancers and in some cases diabetes.
 
  • #518
mathwonk said:
don't celebrate yet ivan, it's a long way to november 4.

No doubt, but I don't know if I can take 26 more days of this; esp after watching Lowly Pion's video clip!
 
  • #519
If we have 26 more days of 7% drops in the market I'm not sure they will be able to hold the election. All the polling places may be foreclosed.
 
  • #520
Couldn't you guys vote early or something?
 
  • #521
Defennder said:
Couldn't you guys vote early or something?

It's not my vote that concerns me.
 
  • #522
Obama buys half-hour of network primetime
http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSTRE4989SV20081010
LOS ANGELES (Hollywood Reporter) - Barack Obama has purchased a half-hour of primetime television on CBS and NBC, sources confirmed Thursday.

The Obama campaign is producing a nationwide pitch to voters that will air on at least two broadcast networks. The ad will run Wednesday, October 29, at 8 p.m. -- less than a week before the November 4 general election.

The direct purchase of such a large block of national airtime right before an election used to be more commonplace before campaigns began to focus their endgame strategies exclusively on battleground states. Such a move is not without precedent in modern presidential politics, however -- Ross Perot did a similar purchase in 1992.

The special is a smart move for the Obama campaign, said Larry Sabato, a political analyst and director of the Center of Politics at the University of Virginia.

"Obama's theme is not just change but unity, so he's appealing to the whole nation rather than a handful of tossup states," Sabato said. "He wants to win the popular vote by a good margin, which will enable him to govern."

. . . .
Sabato appears on NPR and I believe PBS periodically. He's got some good books out.

I wonder if FOX will give McCain equal time. And we're still waiting for Bristol Palin's wedding. She ought not to be forced into it.
 
  • #523
Astronuc said:
I wonder if FOX will give McCain equal time.
Obama tried to buy time at Fox, but they said they didn't have that slot free since they would be covering the World Series then.
 
  • #524
Adding to the dismay over McCain-Palin's linking of Obama to Ayers is William Ibershof - the man who prosecuted the Weather Underground. Of course, the red-faced zealots howling "traitor" at McCain's rallies won't be swayed, but it's nice to know that there are some quiet voices of reason finding their way into the press.

http://www.editorandpublisher.com/eandp/news/article_display.jsp?vnu_content_id=1003873017
 
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  • #525
Panic attacks: Voters unload at GOP rallies!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081010/pl_politico/14445
The unmistakable momentum behind Barack Obama's campaign, combined with worry that John McCain is not doing enough to stop it, is ratcheting up fears and frustrations among conservatives.

And nowhere is this emotion on plainer display than at Republican rallies, where voters this week have shouted out insults at the mention of Obama, pleaded with McCain to get more aggressive with the Democrat and generally demonstrated the sort of visceral anger and unease that reflects a party on the precipice of panic.

The calendar is closing and the polls, at least right now, are not.

With McCain passing up the opportunity to level any tough personal shots in his first two debates and the very real prospect of an Obama presidency setting in, the sort of hard-core partisan activists who turn out for campaign events are venting in unusually personal terms.

"Terrorist!” one man screamed Monday at a New Mexico rally after McCain voiced the campaign’s new rhetorical staple aimed at raising doubts about the Illinois senator: “Who is the real Barack Obama?”

"He's a damn liar!” yelled a woman Wednesday in Pennsylvania. "Get him. He's bad for our country." . . . .
These people need psychiatric intervention. I mean really - this is mob psychosis. I have never experienced such hostility from democrats - only republicans.
 
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  • #526
Astronuc said:
Panic attacks: Voters unload at GOP rallies!
http://news.yahoo.com/s/politico/20081010/pl_politico/14445
These people need psychiatric intervention. I mean really - this is mob psychosis. I have never experienced such hostility from democrats - only republicans.

There's no question in my mind that the alleged "anger" at the Town Hall yesterday in Wisconsin was coming from planted shills delivering soundbites to energize the base. These events are all staged and to presume otherwise when they so tightly control every detail, including the segregation and isolation of the press would seem to miss the mark.
 
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  • #527
LowlyPion said:
There's no question in my mind that the alleged "anger" at the Town Hall yesterday in Wisconsin was coming from planted shills delivering soundbites to energize the base. These events are all staged and to presume otherwise when they so tightly control every detail, including the segregation and isolation of the press would seem to miss the mark.
The fact that a political party goes to those extremes and allows public insults and calls of violence (somebody yelled "Kill him") against a political opponent is very disturbing. This is a rather poor example for democracy.

Given the vitriolic rhetoric, I beginning to wonder if I should expect roving bands of thugs who intimidate members or voters of the other party.
 
  • #528
I find it to be so incredibly laughable to see people sooooo angry. Obama hasn't even been around long enough to earn such contempt. They may not like him, but to hate him with such vitriol says much more about the haters than the hated. Simply put, they are mean and nasty if not dangerous people - the core of the base?

No doubt these the same 28% who still like Bush.

As I said in another thread: I think we are seeing the death of the Republican party as we have known it. The Republicans need to purge themselves of these nutjobs who have dominated the party for almost two decades now. David Brooks called Sarah Palin a cancer to the party. Hopefully it is a lethal cancer. She really does represent the end of a road to nowhere.
 
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  • #529
An odd thing CNN noticed when they had that group of undecided voters in Ohio watching the last Presidential Debate. The majority of the people preferred Obama, liked him better, thought he won the debate, then when asked the question "if you had to vote today, who would you vote for?" the MAJORITY of them said McCain. The CNN guy was floored. He said "but you just said you liked him better and thought he gave better answers, but you won't vote for him".

So I wouldn't get all comfortable about Obama trending better in the polls, the proof will be in the actual votes.
 
  • #530
Evo said:
An odd thing CNN noticed when they had that group of undecided voters in Ohio watching the last Presidential Debate. The majority of the people preferred Obama, liked him better, thought he won the debate, then when asked the question "if you had to vote today, who would you vote for?" the MAJORITY of them said McCain. The CNN guy was floored. He said "but you just said you liked him better and thought he gave better answers, but you won't vote for him".

So I wouldn't get all comfortable about Obama trending better in the polls, the proof will be in the actual votes.

It ain't over till it's over, but don't forget, that was a poll. Also, how could they be undecided if they know who will get their vote?
 
  • #531
Ivan Seeking said:
It ain't over till it's over, but don't forget, that was a poll. Also, how could they be undecided if they know who will get their vote?
Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group. Also, it was a show of hands based on who *now* they would actually vote for.

Who do you approve of more? - Obama
Who do you like better? - Obama
Who won the debate? - Obama
Who are you voting for (if you had to vote right now)? - McCain
 
  • #532
Evo said:
Because they were undecided when they agreed to be part of the group.

So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.
 
  • #533
Ivan Seeking said:
So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.
Same difference, if the majority of the people that claim to be undecided already have decided, it just means that there are not as many real "undecided" voters out there. And if the majority have actually already decided on McCain, it's pretty scary because it's not being reflected in all of these polls everyone is looking at. There was a a good article recently talking about this issue. I wish I could find it.
 
  • #534
Ivan Seeking said:
So they claimed. I think it is clear that they were leaning McCain from the start.

Not necessarily the case.

It could be simply because he's black.

And with plenty of fear afoot in the markets an appeal to the fear of what's different may be what they hope to tap in to. They are dead in the water on issues.

It's despicable that they would seek to win in such a way, but look at the video of those at the Palin Rally.
 
  • #536
LowlyPion said:
Not necessarily the case.

It could be simply because he's black.

He was black last week as well. That didn't first come out in the debate.

And with plenty of fear afoot in the markets an appeal to the fear of what's different may be what they hope to tap in to. They are dead in the water on issues.

It's despicable that they would seek to win in such a way, but look at the video of those at the Palin Rally.

Well, it is nothing new.
 
  • #537
Evo said:
Same difference, if the majority of the people that claim to be undecided already have decided, it just means that there are not as many real "undecided" voters out there. And if the majority have actually already decided on McCain, it's pretty scary because it's not being reflected in all of these polls everyone is looking at. There was a a good article recently talking about this issue. I wish I could find it.

I certainly understand your point, but good polls seek to eliminate this sort of uncertainty. It all depends on how the participants were chosen.
 
  • #538
Ivan Seeking said:
He was black last week as well. That didn't first come out in the debate.

True enough, but the appeal to fear, in fearful times may be what they are trying to tap into. Until they cast their vote ... nothing is sure.

McCain is totally without honor. A loathsome hypocrite for all of his talk about running a clean campaign.
 
  • #539
Ivan Seeking said:
I certainly understand your point, but good polls seek to eliminate this sort of uncertainty. It all depends on how the participants were chosen.
It was CNN, I'm sure they're pretty good. And it wasn't a poll, it was a group of voters in a room with CNN where they were discussing the debate.
 
  • #540
Oddly I think if the market recovers some, that will be helpful to Obama.

I think once the sense of freefall is removed the fear to tap into will lessen.
 

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