News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #31
Evangelicals Are Still Wary Despite McCain’s Outreach
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/09/us/politics/09mccain.html
By MICHAEL LUO, NY Times, June 9, 2008
Lori Viars, an evangelical activist in Warren County, Ohio, essentially put her life on hold in the fall of 2004 to run a phone bank for President Bush. Her efforts helped the president’s ambitious push to turn out evangelicals and win that critical swing state in a close election.

But Ms. Viars, who is among a cluster of socially conservative activists in Ohio being courted by Senator John McCain’s campaign through regular e-mail messages, is taking a wait-and-see attitude for now toward Mr. McCain, the presumptive Republican nominee.

“I think a lot of us are in a holding pattern,” said Ms. Viars, who added that she wanted to see whom Mr. McCain picked for his running mate.

Ms. Viars’s hesitation illustrates what remains one of Mr. McCain’s biggest challenges as he faces a general election contest with Senator Barack Obama: a continued wariness toward him among evangelicals and other Christian conservatives, a critical voting bloc for Republicans that could stay home in the fall or at least be decidedly unenthusiastic in their efforts to get out the vote.
Would McCain pick Huckabee?

And who will Obama pick?

Anyone catch Clinton's speech over the weekend?

Clinton Ends Campaign With Clear Call to Elect Obama
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/us/politics/08dems.html
By ADAM NAGOURNEY and MARK LEIBOVICH, NY Times
Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton made an emotional and unequivocal appeal for her voters to get behind Senator Barack Obama.
 
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  • #32
russ_watters said:
The way I see it, close elections (assuming this will be one) are won on the margins. A few tens of thousands of votes gained or lost in key places is what swings them from one to the other.

Hispanic votes are key in a key state (Florida), so yes, they are important.

This is also why I see Obama's race as an electability problem. The democrats are virtually guaranteed 90+% of the black vote, regardless of who they put up for office, so there isn't much benefit to appealing to black votors unless they can increase black votor turnout. But if his race is a problem for some (and Hillary was right - lower class whites liked her a lot better than him), the democrats stand to lose a lot of votes in their core constituency.

This is also why a half-decent or better black republican would be virtually guaranteed a landslide victory against a white democrat.

Increasing black voter turnout could be a pretty significant factor. In 2004, turning out the evangelical base, especially in a few key swing states, was critical to Bush's victory. McCain's not going to be able to reproduce that kind of turnout. Obama could create the same effect, except with black voters.

Obama will turn out a larger than normal number of anti-black voters, as well, but I'd be surprised to see that segment be as significant as the increase in black turnout. Being strongly opposed to a given candidate rarely increases the likelihood of turning out to vote as being strongly for a given candidate.

Labeling Obama as a Muslim could be more damaging than his race. http://www.mndaily.com/articles/2004/04/27/9453 . Part of that could be substituting "Muslim" for "non-white", but I doubt that's the most significant portion of the anti-Muslim crowd.

I admit that survey has to be suspect, but I found it amusing. I have to wonder if the sponsorship of the David Edelstein Family Foundation of Minneapolis affected how the survey was conducted. Three members of the Edelstein family are alumni of the university that conducted the survey and the Edelstein's experiences with anti-Jewish discrimination and intolerance promped the project.

It seems pretty hard to find an objective study of the relationship between religion and racism (wondering if racism could provide motivation to prop up the pro-evangelical vote). The studies seem to always be done by religious groups trying to show the positive side of religion or atheist groups trying to show the negative side of religion (studies like the Edelstein's aren't that atypical). It almost seems the issue of religion has replaced the issue of race as the most divisive force in US attitudes today, even if race surely has to follow close behind.

I still just don't see "anti-something" turning out the vote as effectively as "pro-something" does.
 
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  • #34
BobG said:
Increasing black voter turnout could be a pretty significant factor.

Increasing the black vote could give a good part of the South to the Dems for the first time since LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964.
 
  • #35
Ivan Seeking said:
Increasing the black vote could give a good part of the South to the Dems for the first time since LBJ signed the Civil Rights Act in 1964.
Do you foresee Obama taking any southern state other than MO, VA or NC (not counting FL as "Southern")?
 
  • #36
I think the entire SE sector is in play. Look at the map of black demographics posted earlier.

Does anyone know the typical turnout for eligible black voters? I think it is something like 30%.
 
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  • #37
Also, McCain has limited resources and can only afford to work the swing States. Obama has the money to forge deep into classically Republican territory. There are quite a few red states that are in fact only pink.

And I for one will send Obama lots more money.
 
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  • #38
I had to laugh at McCains latest blooper: I will veto every beer...
 
  • #39
Ivan Seeking said:
I had to laugh at McCains latest blooper: I will veto every beer...

Freudian slip...thinking ahead to the end of the day, probably!
 
  • #40
If he wants to veto every beer, Cindy is going to give him a swift kick in the crotch, cut him off financially and otherwise and banish him to commercial airlines.:smile:
 
  • #41
It is almost poetic that McCain would be so close to "Busch" beer. It allows for a punch and spin that I expect Move-On will exploit before long. This slip almost begs for it.
 
  • #42
My prediction: This election will not be close (not like the last few we've had). If there's a huge Obama scandal that unfolds in the next 4 months then he'll lose, and lose big. Barring that, I expect him to beat McCain by at least 15 EVs and at least 5% of the popular vote.
 
  • #43
well probably all of us wants to have a good leader right? but in this generation we can't find our ideal politicians...not just like one i saw in pollcalsh...in USA presidential election is fast approaching as i saw this video Obama v. McCain: Setting the Tone maybe one of them got my ideal politician.. try to check it out, what you think after you heard their speeches
 
  • #44
Ivan Seeking said:
Also, McCain has limited resources and can only afford to work the swing States. Obama has the money to forge deep into classically Republican territory. There are quite a few red states that are in fact only pink.
This statement is not accurate, though, in the coming months this may change. For the month of April, McCain + RNC matched Obama + DNC. In May, McCain + RNC did even better and net about $45 mil. We don't have Obama's May numbers, but I don't think he did much better (the DNC managed only about $4mil). The Reps have more cash in the bank than the Dems, right now (probably twice as much).

I just set up a recurring monthly donation. You should too!
 
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  • #45
It may not be representive of the last month or two, but I think it is accurate if you take into account Obama's 1/2 billion dollars raised so far. He also has the ability to raise much more that McCain simply will not be able to match. But that does assume that supporters keep on giving.

I won't make recurring donations just because I don't like automatic charges, but I plan to send some more money shortly, and then again at critical points in the campaign. Part of me is tempted to max-out if needed.
 
  • #46
An internal poll in Kansas conducted by a Democratic group (Cooper & Secrest) puts Obama only 4 points behind McCain there. It may be a bad poll, or it may be an interesting indicator. We'll have to wait and see.

Timeline of electoral map/projections (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
Date        RCP        Elec-Vote       Elec-Proj      
06/06     228/190       287/227         293/245
06/15     238/190       304/221         304/234
 
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  • #47
Gokul43201 said:
Do you foresee Obama taking any southern state other than MO, VA or NC (not counting FL as "Southern")?
As someone from Missouri, I am offended by the notion that it is a southern state.
 
  • #48
Woohoo!

... According to the poll, Hispanic voters are backing Obama by a margin of 62 to 28 percent.[continued]
http://www.time.com/time/nation/article/0,8599,1814676,00.html

...Obama now leads John McCain by six points nationwide, the new poll said, about twice the margin reported in May...
 
  • #49
Gokul43201 said:
An internal poll in Kansas conducted by a Democratic group (Cooper & Secrest) puts Obama only 4 points behind McCain there. It may be a bad poll, or it may be an interesting indicator. We'll have to wait and see.
A new Rasmussen poll in KS gives McCain +10. So I'm not giving much weight to the previous C&S internal poll numbers.

http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/kansas/toplines_kansas_general_election_june_11_2008
 
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  • #50
A summary of the political make-up of likely swing states in the following format: State, Party affiliations of Gov., Sen1 and Sen2, Dems/Reps in the House.

Code: 
NC  D  R  R  7/6
VA  R  D  R  3/8
IN  R  D  R  5/4    
IA  D  R  D  3/2
MO  R  D  R  4/5
OH  D  D  R  7/11
PA  D  R  D 11/8
NH  D  R  R  2/0
FL  R  D  R  9/16
NV  R  D  R  1/2
NM  D  R  D  2/1
CO  D  R  D  4/3

I think GA, MS, KS and LA will also come into play this year but most pundits disagree.
 
  • #51
Quinnipiac U has just released polling results of a swing state threefer:

FLORIDA: Obama 47 - McCain 43;
OHIO: Obama 48 - McCain 42;
PENNSYLVANIA: Obama 52 - McCain 40
...

While Democrats support the idea, independent voters in each state say Obama should not choose Sen. Clinton as his vice presidential running mate. Results are:

* Florida: Democrats want Clinton on the ticket 57 - 33 percent while Republicans are opposed 59 - 17 percent and independents oppose it 46 - 37 percent;

* Ohio: Democrats want Clinton for Vice President 58 - 31 percent, but Republicans say no 60 - 19 percent and independents turn thumbs down 47 - 31 percent;

* Pennsylvania: Democrats say yes to Clinton 60 - 31 percent, while Republicans say no 63 - 20 percent and independents nix the idea 49 - 36 percent.

https://quinnipiac.edu/x2882.xml?ReleaseID=1187
 
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  • #52
Barack Obama faced a difficult choice. If he accepted public financing, he would lose the advantage he has in fund raising. On the other hand, if he opted out, he would be branded a liar. Today, Obama opted out. This is probably a wise choice. With enough money he can fool more ignorant people into voting for him than he will lose by disgusting any others. Perhaps it's true after all, that candidates for President can never be better than the people who vote for them. Ever the optimist, I'm holding out for better.
 
  • #53
Some folks may not have noticed, but McCain has been running a privately funded general election campaign for the last 4 months, and probably an illegal one at that. And that's just one of many aspects to this story.

PS: Does anyone have links to the actual commitments that McCain and Obama signed?
 
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  • #54
Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

With numbers consistently showing rock-bottom approval ratings for President Bush and a large majority of Americans unhappy with the country's direction, the opposing-party candidate should, in the normal course, have attracted more disaffected voters. Now it looks as if Obama is doing just that. A new NEWSWEEK Poll shows that he has a substantial double-digit lead, 51 percent to 36 percent, over McCain among registered voters nationwide.

I've just spent all week in North Carolina, and the people I met with tended to be very conservative - lively and friendly, but definitely way-to-the-right politically. It's refreshing to come home to this sort of news!
 
  • #55
There's a new poll out in GA, saying just what I had predicted a couple posts ago. Of course, it is only a single poll, and thus has the potential for a large error bar, but it will definitely make some GOP strategists worry.
(6/20/08) A New InsiderAdvantage / PollPosition survey conducted June 18 of registered likely voters in the November presidential contest shows Sen. John McCain leading Sen. Barack Obama by a single point in Georgia, making the race in Georgia a statistical tie. Libertarian Bob Barr, a former Republican Congressman from Georgia, received 6 percent of the vote.

The telephone survey of 408 registered likely voters is weighted for age, race, gender, and political affiliation. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 5%. It was conducted with InsiderAdvantage’s research partner Majority Opinion Research.

http://www.insideradvantagegeorgia....008/6-20-08/Poll_Position_Georgia62019643.php

And in other news:
MoveOn, the advocacy group supporting Barack Obama, has decided to permanently shutter its 527 operation, partly in response to the Illinois Senator's insistence that such groups should not spend on his behalf during the general election, I've learned from the group's spokesperson.

MoveOn's decision, which will dramatically impact the way it raises money on Obama's behalf, is yet another sign of how rapidly Obama is taking control of the apparatus that's gearing up on his behalf.

By shuttering its 527, MoveOn is effectively killing its ability to raise money in huge chunks from labor unions, foundations, and big donors who would give over $5,000. The decision doesn't mean MoveOn will stop spending on Obama's behalf. Instead it will raise money exclusively with its political action committee, whose average donation is below $50 and will even be raising money with things like bake sales starting this weekend.

To put this in perspective, MoveOn's 527 raised $20 million for the general election in 2004 -- and at least half of that came from donations over $5,000.

http://tpmelectioncentral.talkingpointsmemo.com/2008/06/moveon_to_close_its_527.php
 
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  • #56
Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             Aggregates of Current Polls                |     Projections
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
                                                        |
NOTE: Some pollsters (in the Aggregates column) do not count toss-up states
RCP1: does not include toss-up states
RCP2: includes toss-ups
 
  • #57
lisab said:
Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain...
That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).
 
  • #58
lisab said:
Whoa! Now I realize national polls don't translate into electoral college victory (Go ask Al about that), but a new poll puts Obama 15 points ahead of McCain:

http://www.newsweek.com/id/142465

Yeah, but Dukakis had the same kind of lead in polls (I think I remember hearing that it was actually the same Newsweek poll even) over Bush Sr. in '88.
 
  • #59
Gokul43201 said:
That poll is a definite outlier, and I wouldn't put too much weight on it.

Meanwhile in the money race, McCain + RNC outraised Obama + DNC by a margin of nearly 2:1 in the month of May (about $45 mil to $26 mil, I think).

McCain can only spend $85 million. Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.

Correction to an earlier statement: It had been reported that Obama had already raised almost 1/2 billion, but now the bean counters put this at about $285 million.
 
  • #60
Ivan Seeking said:
McCain can only spend $85 million.
That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.
Obama is expected to raise another $200-300 million, and he still has something like $80 million onhand.
Obama has about $45 mil on hand as of the end of May. McCain has a similar amount.
 

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