News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #61
Gokul43201 said:
That's between the convention in September and the election in November. He can raise and spend any amount until the convention.

All right all right, I'm sending more money! :biggrin:
 
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  • #62
Tracking Favorability Ratings:

Code: 
Jun 07    Obama=11.8%    McCain=6.5%
Jun 23    Obama=27.8%    McCain=18.0%

Source: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/favorable.html
 
  • #63
The largest single day change in the RCP(2) electoral map happened today, after a handful of poll numbers came out. The electoral lead for Obama went up from +40 (289/249) to +96 (http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=10).

I expect the bump came from flipping MI and IN (IN is way closer than MI, but Romney could easily flip MI back if he's on the ticket).
 
  • #64
The political markets can be pretty good indicators near the end of a race, though less useful this early.

Intrade: http://www.intrade.com/jsp/intrade/trading/t_index.jsp?selConID=409933
Obama = $64.1, up by $7 since the primaries ended
McCain = $32.4, down by $5 over the same period

Iowa Electronic Market - Winner takes all (IEM-WTA): http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/quotes/Pres08_Quotes.html
Dem = 0.622
Rep = 0.378Update: Timeline of electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240  
                                                        |
 
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  • #65
Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.
 
  • #66
Ivan Seeking said:
Based on the latest polls, CNN just changed Wi and Mn from red, to blue.
Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.
 
  • #67
Gokul43201 said:
Actually, they switch from yellow (toss-up) to blue. See post #56 and compare.

Yes, I knew better. It was an unintentional misstatement on my part.

I am a bit dangerous right now. I went two days without sleep in order to meet a do or die deadline.
 
  • #68
To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:

On the television in his living room, Peterman has watched enough news and campaign advertisements to hear the truth: Sen. Barack Obama, born in Hawaii, is a Christian family man with a track record of public service. But on the Internet, in his grocery store, at his neighbor's house, at his son's auto shop, Peterman has also absorbed another version of the Democratic candidate's background, one that is entirely false: Barack Obama, born in Africa, is a possibly gay Muslim racist who refuses to recite the Pledge of Allegiance.

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/
 
  • #69
Gokul43201 said:
To win this election Obama will have to work hard to try and check the rumors against him. Polls repeatedly show about 10% of respondents saying Obama is Muslim. Here's an interesting article about a town not far from me:



http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/25447998/

I had been wondering if something would come out saying that he was not born in america, making him ineligible for the presidential office.
 
  • #70
Not anyone but desperate rumor mongers...and maybe Fox, but I repeat myself.

Anyhow, if you want to get an idea for how people "think" politically, you go to a focus group. And if you want to look at a real, good one, you go to Hart-Annenberg (nothing like the pop-sci focus groups held by the cable news stations, though some exceptions exist).

The latest Hart-Annenberg focus group was telelcast on C-SPAN today and is available on their website. Here's a great write-up on Peter Hart, the vetran pollster that organizes the focus group:
Peter Hart, a prominent Democratic pollster and focus group leader for three decades, was working for former vice president Walter F. Mondale, running that year for the Democratic presidential nomination against Sen. Gary Hart.
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Hart thumped Mondale in the New Hampshire primary, producing "a tsunami that swept over the Mondale campaign," Peter Hart remembers. "Gary Hart appeared on the cover of all three newsweeklies. Everything was Hart." He was sent to Georgia, site of the next, suddenly crucial, primary to test a commercial attacking Hart before a focus group.

"I tested this negative ad and everybody in the focus group booed. I spent the whole session hearing how Hart was new and young and marvelous and Mondale was everything else. About 80 minutes into the session I realized I had nothing" to help Mondale.

"So I turned to them and said, 'Let me give you a situation. Imagine the country is in a terrible recession, unemployment is rising, it's very bad. Who do you want as president?' All 12 people wanted Hart. 'He's young, vibrant, he'll get the country moving again.' Mondale? 'Old, stale, tired, part of the old way of doing things . . .' Then I said, 'Imagine the country in an international crisis -- not a nuclear war but a serious crisis, when the red phone is being used. Who would you want as president? Twelve hands went up for Mondale. 'He's tested, he's stable, he's mature, he's seasoned, well versed, et cetera.' And Hart? 'Rash, new, untested . . .' "

Hart reported these reactions to the Mondale campaign, which quickly produced a new television commercial featuring a red telephone with a flashing orange light. A narrator intoned:

"The most awesome, powerful responsibility in the world lies in the hand that picks up this phone. The idea of an unsure, unsteady, untested hand is something to really think about. This is the issue of our times. On March 20, vote as if the future of the world is at stake. Mondale. This president will know what he's doing. And that's the difference between Gary Hart and Walter Mondale."

Mondale won in Georgia, and kept this ad on the air in all the states that later held primaries. "The Hart people never had an answer to it," Peter Hart recalls.

http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/06/29/AR2008062901875.html

C-SPAN has the video on their front page: http://www.c-span.org/
 
  • #71
Favorability Ratings:

Code: 
Jun 07    Obama=11.8%    McCain=6.5%
Jun 23    Obama=27.8%    McCain=18.0% 
Jul 01    Obama=27.6%    McCain=18.2%
Numbers above represent the difference: % that rate X favorably - % that rate X unfavorably.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
                                                        |
 
  • #72
Rasmussen has a poll out today that should have McCain's new staff rethinking some of the states they've been taking for granted. According to the poll, Obama leads McCain by 5 points in Montana. That's a state that Bush won by 20% and 25%. But it's also a state that Clinton won narrowly in '92 and lost in '96.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/montana/toplines_montana_presidential_election_july_1_2008
 
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  • #73
From the end of the Dem Primary season to now (the last month) has been a good time for Obama stock on the Rasmussen markets.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/election_2008_electoral_college_update

Over the last 20 days, GOP stock has seen 6 downgrades and 0 upgrades. On the other hand, Dem stock has seen 9 upgrades and 1 downgrade.Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P      
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177   |  338/200    293/245
                                                        |
 
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  • #74
Ridiculously early, and completely "out there" prediction #1: Among the states that close polls first (those in EST) McCain will need to win all of (FL, GA, NC, VA & IN) and one out of (MI, OH & PA) to have a reasonable chance of winning.

Among all these states currently, McCain seems to be strongest in GA (which is expected) followed by FL (not IN, or NC or VA)!
 
  • #75
Obama doesn't own a pet. He says he's going to buy his daughters a dog after the campaign is over, but that may be too late. He needs to get one right away! Otherwise, some may feel buying a dog will be the first campaign promise he'll break!

Among pet owners, McCain leads Obama 42% to 37%. Obama leads McCain by 48% to 34% among people who don't own a pet. Unfortunately for Obama, 63% of Americans own a pet.

Among dog owners, McCain leads Obama by 43% to 34%. McCain leads 41% to 38% among cat owners, but cat owners are kind of eccentric anyway. McCain probably has a very sizable lead among ferret owners, being a ferret owner himself, but there doesn't appear to be enough ferret owners to actually compile a meaningful sample.

Pet owners prefer McCain
 
  • #76
This may turn out to be a huge election season positive for Obama, if implemented correctly! :D
Vice President isn't the only high-level position that Barack Obama is currently trying to fill. It's been widely reported that – win or lose – the Obamas have promised their two daughters a dog after the presidential election. With 158 breeds registered by the American Kennel Club® (AKC®) – each with its own unique temperament, coat type, size, energy level and appearance – the search for a canine cabinet member is on.
...
In the true spirit of doggy democracy, the AKC is asking Americans to vote on the breed they think the Obama family should select. The short list of "canine candidates" chosen by the AKC are:
...

http://www.akc.org/news/index.cfm?article_id=3536
 
  • #77
He should get a mixed breed.
 
  • #78
Is that some sort of shot at him being mixed-race?
 
  • #79
It's a joke, not a shot. And I thought it worked on several levels, including the idea that Obama is multicultural.

I thought it was funny, if not the definitive answer.
 
  • #80
The Reps are rolling in money.
WASHINGTON - Republican John McCain raised more than $22 million in June for his presidential bid, his best fundraising performance of the year, and he ended the month with nearly $27 million cash on hand, the campaign announced Thursday.

McCain campaign manager Rick Davis said McCain and the national Republican Party together entered July with about $95 million in the bank. The Republican National Committee, which has been raising money jointly with McCain, collected nearly $26 million in June and had nearly $69 million on hand, officials said.

The campaign's fundraising has given McCain the ability to outspend Democratic rival Barack Obama on television advertising in key battleground states.
...
Davis said McCain and the RNC expect to raise a combined $95 million by the end of August. After that, McCain will stop fundraising and accept about $84 million in public funds. The RNC, however, would be able to continue fundraising and spending money to help McCain's presidential run.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.

In other news, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama tying McCain in North Dakota.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/north_dakota/toplines_north_dakota_presidential_election_july_8_2008
 
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  • #81
Gokul43201 said:
The Reps are rolling in money.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.

In other news, the latest Rasmussen poll shows Obama tying McCain in North Dakota.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/state_toplines/north_dakota/toplines_north_dakota_presidential_election_july_8_2008

I thought the point of public financing was that they are limited to spending 90 million, after the convention.
 
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  • #82
McCain can spend only 90 mil. But the RNC can spend any amount - as much as they can raise. There's only a cap on how much they can spend "in concert" with the McCain campaign. So, for instance, the last $3 million ad by the RNC said almost exactly the same things as the last McCain web ad, but since it was supposedly made without any co-ordination with the McCain campaign, it doesn't fall under the cap. The campaign finance system is still a huge mess.

In Obama's defense, he would have come under the cap about 10 days earlier, and his Primary ended about 3 months after McCain's. So if he accepted public financing, he'd have had a pretty stiff disadvantage anyway.
 
  • #83
Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                        |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177   |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188   |  306/232    293/245
                                                        |
 
  • #84
I've noticed the general election popular vote polls (Rasmussen, Gallup) tightening up over the last week or two. And today, for the first time since the end of May (when the head-to-heads were pretty close due to significant enthusiasm for Clinton), I saw a poll (Rasmussen) that reported a tie. This doesn't automatically point to a tightening of the electoral make-up, but it would be presumptuous to assume that it does not, without closer scrutiny (which is a complete waste of time, this early).

For a rough idea, see: http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/us/general_election_mccain_vs_obama-225.html#polls

For long term polling trends, see: http://www.pollster.com/08-US-Pres-GE-MvO.php

Despite this tightening, the political markets appear to be increasingly upbeat about Obama, though there may just be the slightest hint of reversal in the trend (see link below).

Markets:
Code: 
               INTRADE       IOWA ELECTRONIC MARKET
           Obama    McCain      Dem     Rep
June 26    $64.1    $32.4      0.622   0.378
July 11    $65.0    $31.2      0.643   0.358

For the Iowa Market trend, see: http://iemweb.biz.uiowa.edu/graphs/graph_Pres08_WTA.cfm
 
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  • #85
Update

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
             AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                |     PROJECTIONS
                                                        |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                        |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227              |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221              |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191   |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180   |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180   |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177   |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188   |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177   |  311/227    293/245
                                                        |
 
  • #86
Gokul43201 said:
The Reps are rolling in money.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.
...unless he raises over $60-$70 million a month from July through October.

And he's nearly getting there...

WASHINGTON (CNN) — Barack Obama's campaign raised $52 million last month, more than twice the amount of funds brought in by his rival, John McCain, according to campaign officials for the presumed Democratic presidential nominee.

Obama's campaign now has $72 million cash on hand, the term used to describe how much money they currently have to spend, campaign officials said Thursday.

The average donation to Obama in June was $68, the officials said, bringing the monthly total to more than twice the $22 million raised in May.
...
McCain's campaign raised $22 million in June, its best month yet. The campaign said that combined with the Republican National Committee, they have about $95 million cash on hand.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/

Note: The RNC raised about $26 million in June, while the DNC probably raised about $5 million, at best.
 
  • #87
Gokul43201 said:
The Reps are rolling in money.
So, McCain + RNC hope to get about $200 million plus possibly an extra $50 million from the RNC during Sep+Oct. And they get to claim the "high road" on public financing and McCain doesn't need to divert valuable campaigning time towards fundraising. I expect Obama is going to come out of this - his decision to skip public funds - looking like a fool.

Not if he can spin it right. If he can pull off calling McCain on his BS, i.e. taking public financing to be more "honest" and not accept money from lobbyists, while still getting backing from people that do, he can come out better.

The problem is that Obama has no spine and McCain for some reason can just smile to the camera and all his problems go away. And he's not even pretty or anything.

But, for Obama at least, fund raising time = campaigning time. Since most of his donors are individuals, it's a pretty good estimate of how much support he has. If he gets huge amounts of money and the news keeps reporting it like they have been, more people might want to find out why he's liked so much.
 
  • #88


Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                 |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227                       |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221                       |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
                                                                 |

Note: Pollster.com has released their first electoral map. I've added them to the mix.
 
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  • #89
After watching helplessly for 8 years as George Bush, who I think is the worst president in memory, even worse than Nixon, trashed the country and the world in our names, I have finally begun to contribute money to a political campaign, as have apparently many others. Especially to Obama, but also to senate and congressional campaigns.

There is this awful feeling that if the republicans win again, I won't have done enough to help recover the pride and dignity and reputation, as well as the real soul of the USA.
 
  • #90
McCain commercial blames Obama for the price of gasoline. I wonder how much of this type of crap we will have to see??

 
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