News What are the Key Factors for Victory in the 2008 Presidential Election?

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The discussion centers on the electoral significance of Hispanic and Black voters in the upcoming Obama-McCain election, highlighting that New Mexico's 5 electoral votes may not be pivotal despite its Hispanic population. Eligible Hispanic voters total approximately 17 million, while Black voters are around 24 million, compared to 151 million White voters, indicating a demographic imbalance. Concerns are raised about the potential impact of a Hispanic vice-presidential candidate for Obama, with opinions divided on whether it would significantly sway Hispanic votes. The conversation also touches on the importance of the vice-presidential picks for both candidates, especially considering McCain's age and the historical context of racial tensions surrounding Obama. Overall, the thread emphasizes the need for informed discussions about voter demographics and electoral strategies as the election approaches.

Who will win the General Election?

  • Obama by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 16 50.0%

  • Obama by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%

  • McCain by over 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 4 12.5%

  • McCain by under 15 Electoral Votes

    Votes: 6 18.8%
  • Total voters
    32
  • #121


Gokul43201 said:
3. All it takes to make Obama's claim true without recourse to any maintenance other than tire pressures is that the worst 4% of drivers lose 25% efficiency from underinflation. You can even give the remaining 96% of drivers perfect scores for tire pressure, and you still lose more gas from tires.
Do you have any source for this statement?

4. Even if everything you say is right (which isn't true), and Obama only talked about tire pressure and nothing else (which isn't true either)...even then, by your own words, Obama's big mistake here is in using a number that has been widely reported. Wow! Really? Compared to McCain's repeated nonsense?

You asked why are Obama's numbers falling in the market and I gave you two possible reasons. Most people don't believe his statement about tune ups and tire inflation - FACT. It has recently been heavily reported in the media that he is flipping on many issues - FACT.
People are seeing him flip on his issues and he is making what many see are political gaffes like the air pressure thing. He set the bar high for himself and he just isn't living up to his hype like he could during the primaries. It is natural for him to be slipping in the polls... and if he continues his campaign along the lines he has this summer, I believe he will slip further after a short term positive bounce he gets from the Democrat Convention.

Oh and by the way... You do know that Obama referred to all drilling not just offshore drilling. You are questioning my honesty?

But we could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling — if everybody was just inflating their tires? And getting regular tune-ups? You’d actually save just as much!
 
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  • #122


chemisttree said:
Most people don't believe his statement about tune ups and tire inflation - FACT.

Do you have any sources for this statement?

chemisttree said:
It has recently been heavily reported in the media that he is flipping on many issues - FACT.

Do you have any sources for this statement?
 
  • #123


WarPhalange said:
Do you have any sources for this statement?
I'll just assume that you've been out of the country. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/issues2/articles/64_now_support_offshore_drilling_42_see_it_as_best_way_to_reduce_oil_prices

Do you have any sources for this statement?

...and it's a country without radio, newspaper, internet and TV.
 
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  • #124
He's taking your claims and using math to back up his claims. What kind of sources do you want?

And then you claim things as fact, no wait, I mean FACT, and don't bother to give sources.

Very classy.
 
  • #125


chemisttree said:
Do you have any source for this statement?
What source do you want: a link to multiplication tables?

25% X 4% X 150 billion gallons per year (that's your number) = 1.5 billion gallons lost each year.

You asked why are Obama's numbers falling in the market and I gave you two possible reasons. Most people don't believe his statement about tune ups and tire inflation - FACT.
You are now saying this for the first time. Yes, it's possibly true that most people are clueless.

It has recently been heavily reported in the media that he is flipping on many issues - FACT.
That's also probably true, though it is sad that the media has such a strong pro-McCain bias. He has flip-flopped by an order of magnitude more than Obama has.

People are seeing him flip on his issues and he is making what many see are political gaffes like the air pressure thing.
Yes, it's true that telling the truth is a political gaffe, while pandering tricks (like the whole drilling nonsense and the idiotic gas tax holiday) are political winners. So too are ridiculously untruthful campaign ads.

He set the bar high for himself and he just isn't living up to his hype like he could during the primaries. It is natural for him to be slipping in the polls... and if he continues his campaign along the lines he has this summer, I believe he will slip further after a short term positive bounce he gets from the Democrat Convention.
Guess he should take a page out of the Rove-McCain playbook and start playing sleazy too.

Oh and by the way... You do know that Obama referred to all drilling not just offshore drilling.
No, he did not. And if you missed it after I quoted it, I'll quote it again:
Obama said:
But we could save all the oil that they’re talking about getting off drilling...

They (the McCain Campaign) are talking about lifting the moratorium on drilling in the OCS.

You are questioning my honesty?
I will happily take that back and apologize when you explain your repeatedly ignoring a part of Obama's statement (even after I quoted it specifically, so you wouldn't miss it the second time).
 
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  • #126


chemisttree said:
I'll just assume that you've been out of the country. http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/issues2/articles/64_now_support_offshore_drilling_42_see_it_as_best_way_to_reduce_oil_prices
I'll just assume you forgot that you mentioned flipping on many issues. Your link talks about Obama shifting position on one issue - an issue, incidentally, that McCain also flipped on. I know Obama has reversed on a few other issues as well, but McCain's list of reversals is tens and tens long.
 
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  • #127


Gokul43201 said:
I'll just assume you forgot that you mentioned flipping on many issues. Your link talks about Obama shifting position on one issue - an issue, incidentally, that McCain also flipped on. I know Obama has reversed on a few other issues as well, but McCain's list of reversals is tens and tens long.

This illogic is fascinating... You asked about why Obama's numbers were falling and I gave you two reasons (with which you now agree)

You are now saying this for the first time. Yes, it's possibly true that most people are clueless.
That's also probably true, though it is sad that the media has such a strong pro-McCain bias. He has flip-flopped by an order of magnitude more than Obama has.

and yet you still persist in making this about McCain! Was your question really about how bad McCain is?

If he flips on his issues just like McCain, would you expect him to maintain a lead or to approach more or less an equal showing?

The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Saturday shows Barack Obama attracting 43% of the vote while John McCain earns 41%. When "leaners" are included, it’s Obama 46% and McCain 45%...
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

The race for Colorado’s Electoral College votes is about as close as it can be on the eve of the Democratic National Convention in Denver.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of Colorado voters shows John McCain attracting 47% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 45%. When “leaners” are included, it’s McCain by a single percentage point, 49% to 48%.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/colorado/election_2008_colorado_presidential_election

Barack Obama still holds a solid 47% to 40% lead over John McCain in the key battleground state of Michigan, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters there.

Obama’s lead has dropped a statistically insignificant one-point since last month.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama has a narrower 49% to 45% lead on his Republican rival.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/michigan/election_2008_michigan_presidential_election

John McCain leads Barack Obama by seven percentage points in the race for Missouri’s Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey in Missouri shows John McCain attracting 48% of the vote while Barack Obama earns 41%. This is the third time in the last four months that McCain’s support has been at 47% or 48%. The one exception came in early June—McCain’s support dipped as Obama was wrapping up the Democratic Presidential nomination.

Obama has been in the 41% to 43% range for four straight months.

Last month, McCain enjoyed a five-point lead in Missouri.

When leaners are included in the current survey, McCain leads Obama 50% to 44%, little changed from a month ago. Leaners are survey participants who initially indicate no preference for either major candidate but indicate that they are leaning towards either McCain or Obama.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/missouri/election_2008_missouri_presidential_election

It’s hard to imagine a closer political race than the battle for Virginia’s Electoral College votes.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of the race shows Barack Obama with a statistically insignificant one-point advantage over John McCain, 46% to 45%. When “leaners” are factored in, it’s McCain with a statistically insignificant one-point edge, 48% to 47%.

The difference between those two results can be found primarily among unaffiliated voters. Without leaners, McCain has a twelve point advantage among those not affiliated with either major party. When leaners are included, McCain’s advantage grows to seventeen points, 54% to 37%.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/virginia/election_2008_virginia_presidential_election

In North Carolina, voters are leaning more in John McCain’s direction than they have at any point since March.

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey finds McCain ahead 46% to 42% in the Tar Heel State. That’s little changed from last month. But, when “leaners” are included, McCain has opened a six-point lead, 50% to 44%. That’s twice the three-point advantage from a month ago and McCain’s biggest edge since shortly after the Jeremiah Wright story became news in mid-March.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/north_carolina/election_2008_north_carolina_presidential_election

John McCain has cut Barack Obama’s lead in Iowa in half over the past month but still trails the Democrat 46% to 41%, according to the latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of voters in the state.

When “leaners” are factored in, Obama leads his Republican opponent 49% to 44%.

Last month Obama had a double-digit lead on McCain, 51% to 41%. In June, after Hillary Clinton dropped out of the Democratic presidential race, he led McCain by seven points.
http://rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/election_20082/2008_presidential_election/iowa/election_2008_iowa_presidential_election


These polls might be reflected in the Intrade Political Securities you referred to.

It certainly wouldn't be because of this...
 

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  • #128
WarPhalange said:
And then you claim things as fact, no wait, I mean FACT, and don't bother to give sources.

I usually don't bother to give details about statements that are obviously true. Now that you are back in country, you should research the issues yourself.

Very classy.
Thank you!
 
  • #129


chemisttree said:
This illogic is fascinating... You asked about why Obama's numbers were falling and I gave you two reasons (with which you now agree)
It's funny that you'd call my post illogical after having your primary claim and follow ups shown to be just wrong, at the very least. And after you then modify your stance to something I can agree with - it wasn't me that had to change my stance.

Anyway, an update on the polls...with a HUGE swing towards McCain.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                 |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227                       |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221                       |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
                                                                 |
 
  • #130
Well, yeah...Obama was on vacation in Hawaii - a place that only "rich" "elite" people ever go. And McCain was back home talking tough to the Russians about disputed territories in Georgia and preaching that "In the 21st century, countries don't invade other countries". That played to the flag-waving mouth-breathers pretty well, evidently. Hopefully, the recent DNC revelations that John McCain thinks "rich" people make at least 5 Million dollars a year, and his inability to describe within an order of magnitude how many houses he owns will register with the low-to-middle income supporters who want more corporate tax breaks and more tax breaks for the wealthy.
 
  • #132
It's not fair to say he's unable to answer that question. He realized (just in time, it seems) that producing a soundbite along the lines of we own about a dozen houses might not be politically smart, and deliberately chose not to answer.
 
  • #133
Nice house - 9 bedrooms and 12 bathrooms, plenty of space in the walk through closet. The McCains must have enough clothes for a small town.

YdwjC0Wbk3Q[/youtube] Afterall, he just a regular guy who married well.
 
  • #134
Gokul43201 said:
It's not fair to say he's unable to answer that question. He realized (just in time, it seems) that producing a soundbite along the lines of we own about a dozen houses might not be politically smart, and deliberately chose not to answer.

Sure, but now it looks like he has so many he can't even count them. Or he's so old he can't remember.

Basically it was a good question.
 
  • #135
Astronuc said:
Nice house - 9 bedrooms and 12 bathrooms, plenty of space in the walk through closet. The McCains must have enough clothes for a small town.

YdwjC0Wbk3Q[/youtube] Afterall, he...ome sleazy trick as soon as they take office.
 
  • #136
Okay, let's not make this about the McCain homes - it's not worth an extended discussion.
 
  • #137
I'm worried that if McCain wins the elections, the Republican party will never stop running attack campaigns.
 
  • #138
And if he loses, will they figure they didn't attack enough?

Looks like that's what Obama's figuring right now.

Last month, the National Review urged McCain to start campaigning more like Hillary did during the Primary (yes, when it comes to dirty campaigning, the neocons have a real crush on Hillary). After McCain gains following a stretch of negative campaigning over the last few weeks, the Dems are exhorting Obama to start hitting back (see, for example, the recent op-ed by Dem hitman, Carville). And he's doing it - taking a cheap shot with the McCain doesn't know how many houses he owns line.On a completely unrelated note, there was an interesting fund-raising stat that came up last week. I wanted to post it here, but forgot, so here it is:
WASHINGTON (AP) -- U.S. soldiers have donated more presidential campaign money to Democrat Barack Obama than to Republican John McCain, a reversal of previous campaigns in which military donations tended to favor GOP White House hopefuls, a nonpartisan group reported Thursday.

Troops serving abroad have given nearly six times as much money to Obama's presidential campaign as they have to McCain's, the Center for Responsive Politics said.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080814/military_donations.html

How is that possible? McCain is an untouchable military icon, a "celebrity", you could say! Are the troops actually aware that despite McCain's rhetoric about supporting the troops, he repeatedly voted against spending money on improving conditions (materiel, armor, medical care, etc.) for them - measures that Obama voted for? Do they realize that Obama actually has shown better judgment on Foreign policy, or is it factors unrelated to the Military altogether (they have to worry about the economy too)? Or are they just voting for the person that will get them home faster?

Whatever it is, looks like they believe Obama will better serve their interests. Obama, not McCain.

But this shouldn't be a problem for McCain, since he knows the military and any polls that disagree with him are just wrong.

uZLvboDecho[/youtube]
 
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  • #139
If you're interested in participating in an online vote, I would like to invite you to http://www.votenow2008.blogspot.com" which is a fairly ambitious attempt to predict the electoral results based on visitors' votes. I don't think it's an accurate representation of the nation's votes, but with enough respondents it could be interesting to see how it ultimately compares to the actual results on Nov 4.
 
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  • #140
The latest slimy campaign ad from McCain:

QJj-TacxqGA[/youtube] That's so pa...re already lining up to eat out of his hands.
 
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  • #141


Last Update before the end of the Democratic Primary.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):
Code: 
                     AGGREGATES OF CURRENT POLLS                 |     PROJECTIONS
                                                                 |
Date      RCP1     RCP2     CNN   Elec-Vote  USAtlas-A  Pollster | Elec-Proj  USAtlas-P   
                                                                 |   
06/06   228/190                    287/227                       |  293/245
06/15   238/190                    304/221                       |  304/234      
06/21   238/163  289/249  211/194  317/194    271/191            |  349/189    298/240
06/26   238/163  317/221  211/194  317/194    288/180            |  338/200    298/240 
07/01   238/163  304/234  231/194  317/221    268/180            |  338/200    293/245 
07/06   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/218    268/177            |  338/200    293/245
07/11   238/163  304/234  231/194  320/215    268/188            |  306/232    293/245
07/16   255/163  304/234  231/194  320/204    268/177            |  311/227    293/245
07/21   255/163  322/216  231/194  312/199    268/172   293/214  |  298/240    293/245
07/26   238/163  322/216  221/189  292/195    264/175   284/147  |  338/200    298/240
08/11   238/163  322/216  221/189  289/236    264/202   284/157  |  298/240    293/245
08/21   228/174  264/274  221/189  264/261    264/210   260/191  |  264/274    293/245
08/26   228/174  273/265  221/189  273/252    259/210   260/176  |  273/265    293/245
                                                                 |
 
  • #142
Gokul43201 said:
On a completely unrelated note, there was an interesting fund-raising stat that came up last week. I wanted to post it here, but forgot, so here it is:

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080814/military_donations.html

How is that possible? McCain is an untouchable military icon, a "celebrity", you could say! Are the troops actually aware that despite McCain's rhetoric about supporting the troops, he repeatedly voted against spending money on improving conditions (materiel, armor, medical care, etc.) for them - measures that Obama voted for? Do they realize that Obama actually has shown better judgment on Foreign policy, or is it factors unrelated to the Military altogether (they have to worry about the economy too)? Or are they just voting for the person that will get them home faster?

Whatever it is, looks like they believe Obama will better serve their interests. Obama, not McCain.

But this shouldn't be a problem for McCain, since he knows the military and any polls that disagree with him are just wrong.
Matching the size of the military to the tasks assigned to them is pretty important.

Clinton's "Don't Ask, Don't Tell" policy got the most publicity when he was President, but reaping the peace dividend while sending the military out on so many peacekeeping missions was also a problem with the military. Reaping the peace dividend may have started with Bush 41, but the problems with it became a lot more obvious when too many peacekeeping deployments started interfering with training for war time missions. The increase in deployments also increases family stress and causes an exodus of experience, amplifying the training problems.

Stretching a smaller military to cover Afghanistan and Iraq is the same basic problem; just at a larger magnitude. The deployments are even more frequent and the family stress level for each deployment is higher (it doesn't take catastrophic casualty rates; just high enough to be an almost daily news item).

Dropping violence levels and casualty rates can over win over the general public. But a long term policy of frequent deployments for peacekeeping missions hurts military morale more than a short, intense war. Bush 41 was extremely popular with the military.

Militaries are extremely expensive with large, but necessary overhead expenses. A couple of Presidents haven't seemed to realize that and have seemed to have the attitude of "if we're paying for them, we ought to use them".

Going into Iraq without much of a plan on how to handle the aftermath didn't help much either. I think that part has made Iraq permanently unpopular judging from the dissent from so many retired generals.
 
  • #143


Gokul43201 said:
It's funny that you'd call my post illogical after having your primary claim and follow ups shown to be just wrong, at the very least. And after you then modify your stance to something I can agree with - it wasn't me that had to change my stance.

Anyway, an update on the polls...with a HUGE swing towards McCain.

Electoral maps (Obama/McCain):

One thing I like about electoral-vote.com is the graph showing how the projected electoral vote changes over time: Electoral College Graph.

There's a lot of fluctuation in the projections, but the trend in "safer" states (> 5% difference) is pretty steady. This election season, the fluctuations seem to be hard to anticipate and hard to explain. As Election Projection says, "Like so much of this election season, recent polls aren't following the expected course."

Obama has a long way to go before he can be confident about winning. McCain has an even bigger hill to climb.

Still, if McCain can keep the "safer" states down at 250 or lower, the polls seem to suggest that anything could happen on election night.

A different note on the convention - especially convention coverage. What's up with CNN and MSNBC talking about the lack of attacks on Republicans. If you switch to C-Span, it looks like quite a few of the speakers are on the attack - you just don't see them on CNN and MSNBC because the analysts are sucking up all the air time.

I guess the wrong speakers are on the attack. CNN and MSNBC don't like to break away from the chatter of their "experts" to cover the convention. The speaker has to have a pretty high profile before the convention becomes worth covering.

Personally, I was more interested in seeing http://www.doonesbury.com/strip/dailydose/index.html?uc_full_date=20080825 than seeing attacks on Republicans.
 
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  • #144
anyone just catch Obama making out with Jill Biden on stage when he made his surprise visit at the end of day three? :smile: I think he was going for the cheek, but definitely planted a huge smacker on her lips right in front of Joe lol
 
  • #145
That's good. It shows the public that Obama isn't afraid to take what he wants, and it shows Biden his place: where ever Obama wants. Now we just need to see him sucker punching some school bully so that he can show America that he isn't afraid to stand up and use force when necessary.

Unlike this guy:

yEc1daWnyGo[/youtube] How can you ...f you can't even slap a woman's *** properly?
 
  • #146
Obama has to make a compelling speech tonight.

I'd like to see him include the Preamble of the US Consitution and explain how his administration will address the commitments therein.

I hope his message is about his vision and how he plans to address the challenges that the US if facing. I don't want to hear about his opponent or what his opponent can or cannot do.
 
  • #147
hey, how is my boy al doing? (how many times ) did i mention i used to know him? he was a good kid, and i respect him even more now.
 
  • #148
we'll probably lose in november after the swift boat ads air, but for now,...yeeee hahh! even eisenhower's grand daughter is on stage for barack.
 
  • #149
A hurricane on opening night of the Republican Convention!

Funny thing is that it actually could be a positive for Republicans - provided it doesn't turn into a repeat of the Katrina disaster. Leave Bush and Cheney on the schedule for Monday night while the entire nation watches news of Gustav. If either has to cancel to respond to the hurricane, even better. Move Laura Bush to Tuesday night - she's actually popular.

Of course, if Gustav reaches a Cat 3 and the rebuilt levees in New Orleans fail, then oh,boy ... Obama can start picking his cabinet early.
 

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