News What are the potential impacts of public confidence on the economy's recovery?

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The discussion centers on the precarious state of the U.S. economy, emphasizing that restoring public confidence is insufficient for recovery. Critics argue that reliance on cheap credit and government interventions has exacerbated the financial crisis, suggesting that a significant restructuring of the economy is necessary. The conversation highlights the ongoing challenges of rising unemployment, projected to exceed 10%, and the slow pace of economic recovery, with GDP still declining. Various recovery scenarios are debated, including V-shaped, W-shaped, and L-shaped recoveries, with pessimism about the immediate future.The dialogue also touches on the implications of national debt, which is growing rapidly and could lead to a future crisis if not addressed. Participants express skepticism about the effectiveness of government stimulus measures, pointing out that only a fraction of allocated funds have been spent, and stress the need for job creation and productive investments to drive genuine recovery. The discussion reflects a broader concern about the sustainability of economic policies and the potential for long-term consequences stemming from current fiscal practices.
  • #481
Mech_Engineer said:
. I'm curious what the breakdown is in the "Non-Defense Discretionary" ...
Slide 3
http://online.wsj.com/public/resources/documents/1kingston.pdf
Homeland- $44.1
Interior $32.3
Labor-HHS $163.6
Leg Branch $4.7
MilCon-VA $102.9
State-Foreign Ops $48.9
Ag-FDA $23.3
CJS $68.7
Energy & Water $33.4
Financial Services $46.4
T-HUD $122.10
 
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  • #483
russ_watters said:
I'm curious: what makes social security, medicare and medicaid "mandatory"?
Part of that would be wrapped up in the idea, long past, that we all pay directly in to SS and Medicare via FICA, etc, and supposedly have a direct call on that money.
 
  • #484
mheslep said:
Part of that would be wrapped up in the idea, long past, that we all pay directly in to SS and Medicare via FICA, etc, and supposedly have a direct call on that money.
Which, of course, is now and always was a load of crap...but you may be right that that's why they call it "mandatory".

To me, "mandatory" actually should mean "mandatory". Interest on the debt is mandatory in that Congress can't just pass a law to change it and if you don't spend it, the economy collapses. That's really about it. SS can be changed simply by choosing to change it (and we must).
 
  • #485
russ_watters said:
Which, of course, is now and always was a load of crap...but you may be right that that's why they call it "mandatory".

To me, "mandatory" actually should mean "mandatory".
Radical notion. Next you'll want a "cut" to mean a "cut" instead of a less than planned increase.
Interest on the debt is mandatory in that Congress can't just pass a law to change it and if you don't spend it, the economy collapses. That's really about it. SS can be changed simply by choosing to change it (and we must).
I'd privatize the thing away, ala Chile.
 
  • #486
mheslep said:
Radical notion. Next you'll want a "cut" to mean a "cut" instead of a less than planned increase.
Perhaps we should call the "Bush tax cut expiration" the "Obama tax increase"...?

And getting richer slower isn't getting poorer.
 
  • #487
russ_watters said:
I'm curious: what makes social security, medicare and medicaid "mandatory"?

My thoughts exactly. If we don't have enough money for them, we can't have them. Simple as that (perhaps too simple?).

If I could I would opt-out of all 3 tomorrow, but the citizens that are dependent on it wouldn't want that to happen... Still, it pisses me off that I see my paycheck go down for money I will never get back.
 
  • #488
russ_watters said:
Which, of course, is now and always was a load of crap...but you may be right that that's why they call it "mandatory".

To me, "mandatory" actually should mean "mandatory". Interest on the debt is mandatory in that Congress can't just pass a law to change it and if you don't spend it, the economy collapses. That's really about it. SS can be changed simply by choosing to change it (and we must).

Mandatory spending refers to funds whose appropriation is not directly controlled by Congress through the annual budget-making process. It is spending which is, by law, obligated automatically.

Social Security outlays cannot be changed without changing the law. This is mandatory, by definition . Interest payments on the public debt are a part of the annual Congressional discretionary budget outlays. This is voluntary, again by definition. The United States is under no legal obligation to honor its debts, anymore than, say, Bank of America is - if it were, it would distort the marketability of that debt. It is under contractual obligation, like any other borrower, but since the US has never actually tried not paying its debts, I don't think anybody really knows what consequence this would have for Congress if we decided to go that route. In practice, its conjecture in the extreme.

I'm curious, what constitutes "other mandatory"?

Unemployment benefits, most veterans benefits, income support programs, some product subsidies. Any spending that is required by law, and not appropriated annually by Congress.

It's actually pretty surprising how much of the budget is mandatory - this is why reducing government expenses is so difficult. The budget can be passed with relative ease, bypassing most of the procedural obstacles that slow down legislation, and is a consequence a pretty volatile outlay. It grows and shrinks pretty dramatically over a relatively short time, and is difficult to predict forward. Mandatory outlays, on the other hand, change little (speaking fundamentally) over time and are pretty easy to predict forward - it's just a matter of statistics once you assume the law doesn't change.

Something like 3/4 of the USDA budget is mandatory, for example.
 
  • #489
talk2glenn said:
Mandatory spending refers to funds whose appropriation is not directly controlled by Congress through the annual budget-making process. It is spending which is, by law, obligated automatically.

Social Security outlays cannot be changed without changing the law. This is mandatory, by definition . Interest payments on the public debt are a part of the annual Congressional discretionary budget outlays. This is voluntary, again by definition. The United States is under no legal obligation to honor its debts, anymore than, say, Bank of America is - if it were, it would distort the marketability of that debt. It is under contractual obligation, like any other borrower, but since the US has never actually tried not paying its debts, I don't think anybody really knows what consequence this would have for Congress if we decided to go that route. In practice, its conjecture in the extreme.



Unemployment benefits, most veterans benefits, income support programs, some product subsidies. Any spending that is required by law, and not appropriated annually by Congress.

It's actually pretty surprising how much of the budget is mandatory - this is why reducing government expenses is so difficult. The budget can be passed with relative ease, bypassing most of the procedural obstacles that slow down legislation, and is a consequence a pretty volatile outlay. It grows and shrinks pretty dramatically over a relatively short time, and is difficult to predict forward. Mandatory outlays, on the other hand, change little (speaking fundamentally) over time and are pretty easy to predict forward - it's just a matter of statistics once you assume the law doesn't change.

Something like 3/4 of the USDA budget is mandatory, for example.
I think we all understand that, but I would never use that politically motivated definition of "mandatory". Government has a choice whether or not, and to what extent, to continue any of those programs. The national debt is, like you say, a contractual obligation authorized by the constitution. Most of the rest is nothing more than political promises by politicians that do not constitute an obligation on the part of my children and grandchildren to pay for. Despite promises by past and current politicians, our children and grandchildren have no moral or legal obligation whatsoever as a result. That meets the dictionary definition of voluntary, not mandatory.
 
  • #490
russ_watters said:
I'm curious: what makes social security, medicare and medicaid "mandatory"?

Just the prejudice that they should be. I am a free man and I want to have my own choice. Why don't they just give me one?
 
  • #491
M.Dowson said:
Just the prejudice that they should be. I am a free man and I want to have my own choice. Why don't they just give me one?
I'm with you there. The stock answer I believe is that the majority won't let us out. That state of affairs suggests another alternative that I haven't seen discussed: a buy out of sorts. I'm just rolling this around, but the idea is that everyone under ~40-50 that wants to opt out of the system pays some kind of 'buy out' of our legal obligation to SS, something I think the highly indebted government would find extremely tempting. Now of course as citizens we shouldn't really have to buy out of anything that you don't intend to receive in the first place, but the political reality is what it is, and a buy out might overcome the political hurdles, especially now. The advantage is that the individual becomes free and clear of SS taxes forever, and likely the country at large eventually follows suit. The alternative is that all US citizens continue to pay into SS and watch it inevitably 1) go bust and not pay off, and 2) take the federal government budget down with it.
 
  • #492
mheslep said:
The alternative is that all US citizens continue to pay into SS and watch it inevitably 1) go bust and not pay off, and 2) take the federal government budget down with it.
SS is self-funded, and cannot borrow. It cannot add to the deficit, despite Alan Simpson's transparent attack on it. He knows better, but there are agendas to pursue. Raising the income cap on the higher wage-earners would keep SS solvent forever, though Simpson would have us believe that pensioners should have to work longer and accept lower benefits to "fix" SS.
 
  • #493
turbo-1 said:
SS is self-funded [...] Raising the income cap on the higher wage-earners would keep SS solvent forever

Yes, making other people pay for my retirement could stop SS from running out of money. But that's not the idea -- it's not supposed to be other people paying for my retirement but *me* paying for my retirement. The income cap exists because of the benefits cap.

You also ignore the economic loss required by such a transfer, but I trust this was only for brevity.
 
  • #494
CRGreathouse said:
Yes, making other people pay for my retirement could stop SS from running out of money. But that's not the idea -- it's not supposed to be other people paying for my retirement but *me* paying for my retirement. The income cap exists because of the benefits cap.

You also ignore the economic loss required by such a transfer, but I trust this was only for brevity.
SS was structured such that present earners pay benefits to present retirees. It can work well in perpetuity as long as the system is updated with current actuarial data. People like W, Simpson, and others want to sabotage the system. To begin with, they demonize beneficiaries as welfare recipients getting paid under an entitlement program. The story is paper-thin.

If you suggest raising the income-cap, the standard neo-con reply is "you can't raise taxes in a recession". Let's see...what was the economic climate in the mid-1930s when SS was established? The people pushing the right-wing propaganda are hoping that nobody knows any history, nor cares to learn it.
 
  • #495
turbo-1 said:
SS is self-funded,
...
turbo-1 said:
Raising the income cap on the higher wage-earners would keep SS solvent forever,.

Which is it?
 
  • #496
Economic recovery? I doubt the economy will "recover" before 2020. What we should just do is lower the tax rate for those making over >= $300,000 to (-10%) and raise the tax rate for those making < $300,000 to 60%; then, get rid of SS, Medicaid, and Medicare.

That should cut down on a lot of useless debates between "right vs left."
 
  • #497
mheslep said:
...


Which is it?
It is BOTH, as you know. The system needs to be kept current with actuarial data that reflects incomes, costs, and life-expectancy. No rocket-science there.
 
  • #498
Some more spice for the SS history lesson might include:
1. What did happen to the 1935 economy after the enactment of SS? What were the income tax rates along side it?
2. What was the cost back then, before Johnson exploded SS benefits in the 60s?
 
  • #499
turbo-1 said:
It is BOTH, as you know. The system needs to be kept current with actuarial data that reflects incomes, costs, and life-expectancy. No rocket-science there.
Then 'self funded' must have some fairly exotic definition.
 
  • #500
Still no resolution to the pending tax increases for everyone. The Treasury will have to send out the new with-holding tables with increased rates in about a week. What a disaster given yesterday's http://www.suntimes.com/business/2943864,CST-NWS-Jobs04.article" and 15.1 million.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B31NN20101205
 
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  • #501
CRGreathouse said:
Yes, making other people pay for my retirement could stop SS from running out of money. But that's not the idea -- it's not supposed to be other people paying for my retirement but *me* paying for my retirement. The income cap exists because of the benefits cap.
This kind of logic makes me wonder if people have any sense that the economy changes despite money staying the same. Money is nothing more than the ability to acquire available goods and services. If the goods and services available don't add up to those produced for the money you got/saved, how can you redeem your SS for them? Money is ultimately just a medium for bartering.

Mathnomalous said:
Economic recovery? I doubt the economy will "recover" before 2020.
It depends on what you mean by "recover." Probably people will figure out how to live well with less personal spending before 2020, but will that be counted as recovery?
 
  • #502
brainstorm said:
This kind of logic makes me wonder if people have any sense that the economy changes despite money staying the same. Money is nothing more than the ability to acquire available goods and services. If the goods and services available don't add up to those produced for the money you got/saved, how can you redeem your SS for them? Money is ultimately just a medium for bartering.

Wow, that had nothing to do with my post.
 
  • #503
CRGreathouse said:
Wow, that had nothing to do with my post.

Of course it does. If you worked on the railroad, how did you contribute to your own SS unless the railroad you worked on provides support for the economy that takes care of you in retirement? My point is that SS is a mechanism for trading present labor for future labor, but who is to say whether present labor will actually have any economic benefit to future labor? More likely the trade is "we built the mass-production economy, now you serve us in restaurants."
 
  • #504
brainstorm said:
Of course it does.

I notice that you still didn't tie any of that into my post. I'll respond anyway, though.

brainstorm said:
If you worked on the railroad, how did you contribute to your own SS unless the railroad you worked on provides support for the economy that takes care of you in retirement?

It doesn't have to. You could work for a railroad, contribute to SS, and have the railroad go bankrupt without the railroad ever supporting the economy, and yet still collect SS. Of course the economy still has to exist (supported by some companies) at the point that you want to collect, and the laws still have to allow you to collect. But this has nothing to do with the fate of your employer.

brainstorm said:
My point is that SS is a mechanism for trading present labor for future labor

I'm quite sure that every person who has posted on this thread is aware of that fact.

brainstorm said:
who is to say whether present labor will actually have any economic benefit to future labor?

Future voters and politicians, mostly.
 
  • #505
mheslep said:
Still no resolution to the pending tax increases for everyone. The Treasury will have to send out the new with-holding tables with increased rates in about a week. What a disaster given yesterday's http://www.suntimes.com/business/2943864,CST-NWS-Jobs04.article" and 15.1 million.
http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6B31NN20101205

Well, for once, I'm in agreement with the Republican leadership.

Chicken Crap!

:mad:
 
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  • #506
CRGreathouse said:
I notice that you still didn't tie any of that into my post. I'll respond anyway, though.
I was simply questioning your assumption that you contributing money toward your own retirement (SS) is equivalent to your economic contribution contributing to the economy that supports you in old age.

It doesn't have to. You could work for a railroad, contribute to SS, and have the railroad go bankrupt without the railroad ever supporting the economy, and yet still collect SS. Of course the economy still has to exist (supported by some companies) at the point that you want to collect, and the laws still have to allow you to collect. But this has nothing to do with the fate of your employer.
You're still not getting my point to differentiate monetary contribution from functional economic contribution. You might have made loads of money working for World Online or building houses prior to the mortgage meltdown, but that doesn't mean that what you produced actually contributes to your retirement. Building houses might in the sense that someone could live in a house you built in exchange for providing you with restaurant service. On the other hand, the same person could build their own house and dismiss having to serve food to retired people to make a mortgage payment. My point is that economics is ultimately the exchange of goods and services regardless of how they are represented in balance sheets and SS payments.

I'm quite sure that every person who has posted on this thread is aware of that fact.
The point is that if the economy collapses due to lack of connectivity between past and present/future economic exchanges, your entitlement due to previous contributions is meaningless. It all comes down to milking the goods and services you want out of the present economy. If social security allows you to do that, congrats. What you did to qualify for your SS is just legitimation. It's nice to think of the system as being valid, but does it really matter in terms of economic realities?
 
  • #507
brainstorm said:
I was simply questioning your assumption that you contributing money toward your own retirement (SS) is equivalent to your economic contribution contributing to the economy that supports you in old age.

That was never my assumption.

brainstorm said:
What you did to qualify for your SS is just legitimation. It's nice to think of the system as being valid, but does it really matter in terms of economic realities?

That's well and fine, but I'm talking about the legal tie between how much a person pays into SS and how much they can collect, not what philosophical claim they may and may not have to SS. I acknowledge that this could be an interesting topic, but it has nothing to do with my post.
 
  • #508
brainstorm said:
It depends on what you mean by "recover." Probably people will figure out how to live well with less personal spending before 2020, but will that be counted as recovery?

What I meant by "recovery" in a consumer-based monetary system is primarily the return of jobs that will provide people with money to cover their basic needs. If one has no job and no other means of income, one will likely starve.

So, unless those jobs return in the near future (highly unlikely) or a new industry or technology rises (uncertain), I expect unemployment and general discontent to remain high for the next decade.

Want to short circuit that? Start a war, preferably with China.
 
  • #509
OmCheeto said:
Well, for once, I'm in agreement with the Republican leadership.

Chicken Crap!

:mad:

Why were you angered? Is how the sick game of modern politics is played. The donkeys forced the elephants to take a position on tax cuts and now the donkeys will base their plays on the elephants' position. It only matters to those who still buy into the system.

In the end, it is all a farce.
 
  • #510
CRGreathouse said:
That's well and fine, but I'm talking about the legal tie between how much a person pays into SS and how much they can collect, not what philosophical claim they may and may not have to SS. I acknowledge that this could be an interesting topic, but it has nothing to do with my post.
What other basis is there for establishing that legal tie besides a value exchange between labor contributed and labor consumed in old age? Money is a measure of labor-value; at least it is when it is paid/collected for labor rendered. When you save it, either through SS or otherwise, you are investing it in other people's labor with the hope of getting a value return for it at a later moment. If the labor it gets invested in doesn't produce anything of value to you, how can you expect to enjoy the fruits of that value in retirement? What is it, exactly, that you want to consume with your SS income?

There's a good chance that there will be enough food and shelter for you not to have to be homeless and hungry. Anything else might become scarce considering the babyboomers are a large generation with high expectations for consumption. If so, consumption may become competitive driving the price up of many goods and services many people would expect to consume in retirement. As such, you might find yourself in the class of people excluded from those scarcified goods and services. You might also find you're one of the privileged but that you will have to spend a great deal of your retirement wealth on a limited number of privileges. It may only be very very rich people who get it all, i.e. retirement condo in a warm climate, extensive travel privileges, expensive life-prolonging proprietary pharmaceuticals, etc. It shouldn't be this way, probably, but that's capitalism for you.


Mathnomalous said:
What I meant by "recovery" in a consumer-based monetary system is primarily the return of jobs that will provide people with money to cover their basic needs. If one has no job and no other means of income, one will likely starve.
Starvation isn't the main problem with unemployment. It's homelessness. Usually, unemployed people are able to get food one way or another, I think. The question is whether people and/or government will figure out some way to give people access to the large surplus of inhabitable property even if job-creation doesn't grow. The ironic thing is that as long as the property surplus continues or grows, GDP will continue to shrink. However, you can't really create jobs that people don't want to pay for so the best option would be to split up existing jobs to create more part-time jobs, but what would stop people from taking multiple part-time jobs leaving others once again fully unemployed.

So, unless those jobs return in the near future (highly unlikely) or a new industry or technology rises (uncertain), I expect unemployment and general discontent to remain high for the next decade.
There's a third possibility, though it's somewhat like a new industry or technology. What happens is that people give up on paid employment and the people who do so most comfortably are those with other sources of income. These people then create cultural lifestyles that appeal to others, causing people to desire to work less. This is basically the culture of valuing life more than work and money. The more people choose this culture, the higher the demand will become for part-time work, which will open up more part-time jobs and remedy unemployment. I keep wondering when some kind of part-time labor lobby will develop to pursue laws and policies that would be beneficial to part-timers.
 

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