What distribution should i use?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around determining the expected number of players who will accept a bet made by Player 1, given the individual acceptance probabilities of subsequent players. The scope includes statistical reasoning and probability theory.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Mathematical reasoning
  • Debate/contested

Main Points Raised

  • Player1 presents a scenario with specific probabilities for each player accepting the bet and seeks guidance on calculating the expected number of acceptances.
  • Some participants question the clarity of the scenario, particularly regarding the definition of winning and losing in the context of the bet.
  • One participant suggests that the average number of players accepting the bet can be calculated by summing the individual probabilities (32% + 56% + 20%).
  • Another participant echoes the previous point, indicating that the calculation seems straightforward but acknowledges their earlier oversight.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

There is no consensus on the clarity of the betting scenario, with some participants expressing confusion about the win/loss conditions. While there is agreement on the method of calculating the expected number of acceptances, the underlying assumptions and definitions remain contested.

Contextual Notes

Participants have not fully resolved the implications of the win/loss conditions in the betting scenario, which may affect the interpretation of the expected number of players accepting the bet.

rsala004
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Player1 makes the bet.
the 2nd player has a 32% chance to accept the bet.
the 3rd player has a 56% chance to accept the bet.
the 4th player has a 20% chance to accept the bet.

there can only be one winner of said bet, so player one is interested in knowing the EXPECTED number of players that will call his bet (how much competition will he have)

(we can make the assumption that the % chance of a player accepting the bet does not change depending on the # of players accepted before him..they aren't that smart)

anyone have an idea how I can approach this?

haven't taken stats in a while
 
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The question doesn't seem to be clear . I assume there are only 2 outcomes to a bet - win or lose . Now you say that no more than 1 player can win the bet , but how can that be :
If player 1 makes the bet , and then player 2 and player 3 accepts the bet , but player 4 declines .

If player 1 loses the bet then that means player 2 and 3 have won . But you said that no more than 1 player can win the bet. How come ?
 
The average number of players accepting the bet is 32% + 56% + 20%, of course.
 
CRGreathouse said:
The average number of players accepting the bet is 32% + 56% + 20%, of course.

lol so obvious i didnt notice.
 
rsala004 said:
lol so obvious i didnt notice.

...and that's what we're here for.
 

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