News What Exactly Is Happening In the Arab/Persian World?

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Protests in Egypt have escalated into violence, with reports of protesters being beaten and arrested, including journalists. The unrest is characterized as significant but not an outright uprising, contrasting with the recent events in Tunisia. Rumors suggest that President Mubarak's family may have fled the country, raising concerns about potential instability. As protests continue, there are fears that the situation could worsen, particularly with a planned massive demonstration. The emergence of a leaderless youth movement is seen as a critical factor in challenging Mubarak's long-standing regime.
  • #851
DevilsAvocado said:
I understand, but to me this is the simplest question in the world, i.e.:

Are you for or against a safeguard against a Sharia autocracy in the new Egypt constitution?

Yes or No
Yes! :biggrin:
(Not that our private opinions here on PF matter that much, but it’s always nice to know who you’re talking to. :wink:)
I'm strongly opposed to a Sharia based system of Law. I'm also strongly opposed to autocracies. But I'm not sure what it means to be for or against a safeguard against a Sharia autocracy. Will I be pleased if the Egyptians install such a safeguard? Absolutely! Will I be disappointed or worried if they don't? Disappointed: yes; worried: perhaps. Would I like to see Western powers get involved, and through some system of carrots-and-sticks, bring about such a safeguard? Couldn't say without looking at the specifics of the approach.

Does that make my positions reasonably clear?
 
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  • #852
Gokul43201 said:
Yes! :biggrin:
I'm strongly opposed to a Sharia based system of Law. I'm also strongly opposed to autocracies. But I'm not sure what it means to be for or against a safeguard against a Sharia autocracy. Will I be pleased if the Egyptians install such a safeguard? Absolutely! Will I be disappointed or worried if they don't? Disappointed: yes; worried: perhaps. Would I like to see Western powers get involved and through some system or carrots-and-sticks, bring about such a safeguard? Couldn't say without looking at the specifics of the approach.

Does that make my positions reasonably clear?

Ah! A new friend! :!)

 
  • #853
OK... even I'm confused! :rolleyes:
 
  • #854
What?? I couldn’t have said it better than Gokul!
 
  • #855
nismaratwork said:
Generally I'd agree with you, but Libya... I can be a very cold person, but Libya is hell for its people. I can't imagine something worse than Ghaddafi emerging... just another broken African nation, which Libya already is.

I am more sympathetic towards innocent people who are not or are not willing to participating in these anti-government riots but are affected. News media is mainly focused on these protesters who don't have any realistic goals or abilities to deal with their strong governments. I believe no one is going to win in these riots.
 
  • #856
rootX said:
... News media is mainly focused on these protesters who don't have any realistic goals or abilities to deal with their strong governments. I believe no one is going to win in these riots.

Welcome to reality.

5437759483_07fc137a8c_z.jpg
 
  • #857
Galteeth said:
Question: I have heard some talk that young people constitute a silent majority in these countries (Although many i saw in protest videos were not "young people". Are they a literal majority? If so, what accounts for these demographics?

550px-Egypt_population_pyramid_2005.svg.png


(Egypt)
 
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  • #858
Cool huh :smile:

400px-Muslims_and_Christians_united_for_Egypt.png
 
  • #859
rootX said:
I am more sympathetic towards innocent people who are not or are not willing to participating in these anti-government riots but are affected. News media is mainly focused on these protesters who don't have any realistic goals or abilities to deal with their strong governments. I believe no one is going to win in these riots.

I can't disagree with that, but in many cases it would seem that revolutions occur this way. I would have said the same before Mubarak was forced out, but now I'm not betting anymore. Libya is very unique, but it also takes just one man, woman or child to kill him with luck. Would you have thought the military would EVER be need to put down uprisings in Benghazi?!... I'm shocked that many people showed up.
 
  • #863
Greg Bernhardt said:
Morocco is now in the mix. this is simply amazing what has happened over the past few weeks!
http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-morocco-unrest-20110221,0,4078326.story

Wow... Algeria and Morrocco tend to really put down protests HARD. I think that last Algerian uprising had around 100,000 casualties...


The world is changing faster than even modern media can track...

...I wonder what Israel is thinking as a nation right now; I'd be terrified.
 
  • #864
Gafhafi's son is on TV right now.
 
  • #865
What's he saying? I've found him to be an interesting character from his past public appearances and statements.
 
  • #866
Gokul43201 said:
What's he saying? I've found him to be an interesting character from his past public appearances and statements.

This is part transcript and memory:

"This is a speech from my heart. It is improvised and I speak in common Arabic, a Libyan accent."

He goes on to blame criminals from prisons
The protestors are "on drugs", "curious", or "imitating Egypt"
External forces such as foreign media is causing this
"Our Arab brothers are drinking tea, and laughing at us, destroying our country. We're the ones losing, not them. As for the criminals on the street, everyone knows about that... family and friends... they have weapons..."
"The story my brothers, is not just young people trying to imitate Egypt and Tunisia. You must be careful, Libya is not Egypt or Tunisia"

[That last I take as an EXTREME warning.]


"If any separation occurs in Libya, it will break into three different countries."

etc... etc...

He also claims that reports of deaths are greatly exagerated by foreign media to incite futher "chaos".

I'll keep at this... TBC
 
  • #867
"Where will be the center of Petrol? Will it be in Tripoli. or Belghazi? Who will run... the schools and hospitals. If there is a civil war in Libya..."

Essentially he's giving protesters an "out" if they give up now, under the guise of being manipulated and curious. Those "on drugs", would obviuosly be considered criminals and killed.

He also talks about the army not being trained as a police force, which is why they opened fire out of, "fear and anxiety".
 
  • #868
"We will emigrate from Libya, but we won't be able to manage the petrol... and it will take another 14 years to figure out who leads the country. Everyone wants to be a leader, a prince. We're not Egypt or Tunisia (repeats).

Let us speak honestly, we're all armed, even the criminals have tanks, machine guns and cannons. In this moment tanks are spreading around... people of Benghazi. Machine guns are in the midst of civilians. They have been stolen from military camps... this force trying to divide and destroy Libya... we will have civil war.

We will have no food, water. The contract worth 200 Billion dollar will leave. Who will come back to Libya?

Structures being built will be destroyed. Hospitals will be closed.

Today we are at a crossroads... either we say we're Libyans, this is our country... we want real reform... it is agreed anyway and will take place...

We ask now, as a final solution before it's too late. Five million people will take arms. We are not Egypt. We are not Tunisia. Everyone has access to weapons. We will not [mourn?] 48 (or 84?), but thousands. Blood will flow."
 
  • #869
"...Blood will flow in all the cities of Libya, and you will emigrate from Libya. Because petrol stock, and tomorrow all foreign companies will leave tomorrow. Petrol will stop. Come tomorrow there will be no petrol, there won't be any money."

"I say this to you for the last time, before we take up arms, before we take up arms and start a civil war... before this happens... before every Libyan has to defend themselves, before blood flows. I say tomorrow, let's make a historical initiative within 48 hours, 6 days... the Qu'ran... uh... let's find new civil rules and regulations to replace current rules. Let's take away silly punishments, and start... and international dialogue about the Libyan constitution."

"Instead of seperation, Libya can go back to local government... a limited central government..."

My take, is that he's saying protesters have 48 hours to cease and desist, or the military will use full force, and they will shut down basic services.

His second stick is chaos in Egypt and Tunisia.

The carrot is total change, to "spare blood", and change, "from the first republic to the second republic."

He promises a totally new regime.

"Or, Prepare all of you Libyans, prepare for civil war. Forget about petrol, forget about gas. The country will be chaos, there will be bombings... forget the children's education, forget their health..."

He talks about multiculturalism within Libya, and describes a hell of a separate set of coutnries. He continues to threaten civil war, and say that Italy will colonize them again, with force.

"We're only an hour from the American base in Crete... do you think that Europeans and Americans will not come by force? I'm telling you they will destroy us..."

"Europe and the west will not accept that petrol in Libya... the west will not accept... the export of drugs, terrorism and crime."

"2000 KM of Libyan coast is near Europe."

"Anyway, I've spoken to you now. There were many units that were uncovered, using drugs, money, illegal immigrants... You will see all the documents that prove this."

he speaks to Libyans living in foreign lands, implying the death of their children at home.

Edit: consolidation:"This is just a scenario that has been created to come and rule us, once we've killed each other, just like they did in Iraq, they will come and rule you."

He emphasis tribalism, chaos, with the implication that drunken criminals are out there. It's unclear if he's making a threat of slaughter and burning oil wells, or if he's outlining what he sees as a possible future.

IMO, he's giving a deadline before military force is used without restraint in the form of Bedouins and mercnaries who will be blamed as "drunken, drugged" "criminal immigrants."
 
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  • #870
Those poor people don't have a chance.
 
  • #871
Evo said:
Those poor people don't have a chance.

You're right, AFAICT this is a countdown to a massacre.
 
  • #872
Wow, this is all just mind-blowing! Thanks for that translation, Nismar. It's...terrifying.
 
  • #873
lisab said:
Wow, this is all just mind-blowing! Thanks for that translation, Nismar. It's...terrifying.

To be clear, not my translation, but CNN's, with a teensy bit of me where the translator clearly was struggling.

I agree on the terifying... Libyans must be absolutely horrified.
 
  • #874
DevilsAvocado said:
Welcome to reality.
...

It's wonderful!

intromap.jpg
 
  • #875
Evo said:
Those poor people don't have a chance.

BBC mentioned somewhere that Gaddafi's son reference to civil war might imply that half of the country is out of control. There are about 5 different articles on Libya, I couldn't find where it was mentioned.

His video:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12520586

That was one of the strangest political speeches I think I've ever sat through.

He was completely and utterly detached from the reality of what is going on in his country.

To put it bluntly, most Libyans will just treat it as gibberish - it was completely meaningless to them.

The idea that they're somehow going to sit down and have a national dialogue with a government that's brought in foreign mercenaries to shoot at them is laughable.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/theeditors/2011/02/reporting_from_libya.html
Reporting from Libya is tricky at the best of times - clearly, the situation there right now is anything but.

BBC looks very cautious about providing updates on Libya due to difficulty in getting accurate and credible information.
 
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  • #876
rootX said:
It's wonderful!

Omg, root, that made me snork!
 
  • #877
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/166231.html"
 
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  • #878
DevilsAvocado said:
http://www.presstv.ir/detail/166231.html"


hmmm I'm thinking Venezuela. Why would a nation seeking credibility like Brazil harbor him?
 
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  • #879
Greg Bernhardt said:
hmmm I'm thinking Venezuela. Why would a nation seeking credibility like Brazil harbor him?

I hope not, and have to believe not, but money does a lot of things. The world has done a lot of business with Libya, including the US and EU; I'm not sure we'd have much moral authority there.

Still, it would bring bad associations of Rat-Lines from WWII...


Personally, I'll believe he's left when I see him in another country.
 
  • #880
Greg Bernhardt said:
hmmm I'm thinking Venezuela. Why would a nation seeking credibility like Brazil harbor him?

You’re right:

http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/uk-libya-venezuela-idUKTRE71K3RQ20110221
Hague: some information Gaddafi on way to Venezuela

(Reuters) - Foreign Secretary William Hague said on Monday he had seen some information to suggest Libyan President Muammar Gaddafi had fled the country and was on his way to Venezuela.

EDIT:
"Diplomats said Hague was not referring to rumours circulating in the media about Gaddafi's whereabouts, but to separate sources for the information."


EDIT2:
Related??
Two Libyan fighter jets land in Malta
http://uk.reuters.com/article/2011/02/21/us-libya-protests-malta-idUKTRE71K3I520110221
 
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  • #882
rootX said:
It's wonderful!

intromap.jpg

:biggrin:
 
  • #883
He looks tired, doesn’t he?

300px-Muammar_al-Gaddafi_at_the_AU_summit.jpg
 
  • #884
DevilsAvocado said:
He looks tired, doesn’t he?

300px-Muammar_al-Gaddafi_at_the_AU_summit.jpg

he looks like he's in a wax museum
 
  • #885
Greg Bernhardt said:
he looks like he's in a wax museum

Muhahaha!
 
  • #886
Incredible. Thanks for the commentry here.
 
  • #887
BBC: ('resign') Senior Gaddafi diplomats in UN verdicts on the Gaddafi’s 'methods': "war crime"
 
  • #888
I’ve been listening to Swedish public radio and reports from Libya, and they said that right now they are using http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Apache_helicopter" . :eek::mad::eek:

650px-AH-64D_Apache_Longbow.jpg


Libya consist of different clans and Gaddafi has used this to "divide and rule" by chasing different clans at each other. The military is very much 'affected' by this, and for example the air force consist of one clan only – Gaddafi’s own...

If the old wax man has not fled the country, this could develop into a civil war, alternatively a "bombing genocide"...
 
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  • #889
nismaratwork said:
... IMO, he's giving a deadline before military force is used without restraint in the form of Bedouins and mercnaries who will be blamed as "drunken, drugged" "criminal immigrants."

Thanks for the 'translation' nismar. Saif al-Islam Muammar Al-Gaddafi (Sword of Islam Muammar al-Gaddafi) is educated in London, but they apparently forgot the media training... not even the camels would believe this mumbo-jumbo...

400px-Camel%27s_Face%2C_close-up_%28Iran%2C_2004%29.JPG
 
  • #890
DevilsAvocado said:
He looks tired, doesn’t he?

300px-Muammar_al-Gaddafi_at_the_AU_summit.jpg
Looks tired and pissed.

His oldest son seems to want to follow in his footsteps. What a nut!
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/21/133930180/libya-protesters-security-clash-in-capital
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/21/133932012/Libya-Protests-Update


That family has got to go.

Interesting commentary this morning about how many leaders are shocked by the fact that the Egyptian and Tunisian armies supported the people - not the dictators. Well it's about time.

Force Is Likely A Dated Formula Against Protesters
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/21/133932028/Arabs-Leaders-Strategy
 
  • #891
Astronuc said:
Looks tired and pissed.

His oldest son seems to want to follow in his footsteps. What a nut!
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/21/133930180/libya-protesters-security-clash-in-capital
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/21/133932012/Libya-Protests-Update


That family has got to go.

Interesting commentary this morning about how many leaders are shocked by the fact that the Egyptian and Tunisian armies supported the people - not the dictators. Well it's about time.

Force Is Likely A Dated Formula Against Protesters
http://www.npr.org/2011/02/21/133932028/Arabs-Leaders-Strategy

Sure he's tired, it's hard work having to maintain that kind of harem, throwing wild parties, AND oppressing a people!

He's had a hard life... I think it's only fair that he be relieved of his burden. :smile:
Where's an Aleph-Bet team when you need one.
 
  • #892
nismaratwork said:
Sure he's tired, it's hard work having to maintain that kind of harem, throwing wild parties, AND oppressing a people!
Libya is tribally fragmented, and he has maintained control by playing groups off against one another. What will happen if he leaves, and who will fill the power vacuum and control the military? Will his clan try to continue to hold power? Will there be inter-tribal warfare or a divided country? I'd hate to have huge fixed investments in Libya, like oil-production infrastructure, with that kind of uncertainty. If a coalition of tribes bands together to seize power, and they decide to finance their new government by nationalizing foreign concerns, there could be some upheaval in the oil markets.

Edit: Breaking news. Earlier today a couple of Libyan fighter jets landed in Malta. It is reported that the pilots (colonels) decided to defect after being ordered to bomb protesters in Benghazi.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_libya_protests_malta;_ylt=ArdyqmsuHrCx_RtnzmAObsWs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNuaHFhMHFwBGFzc2V0A25tLzIwMTEwMjIxL3VzX2xpYnlhX3Byb3Rlc3RzX21hbHRhBGNjb2RlA21vc3Rwb3B1bGFyBGNwb3MDMgRwb3MDNwRwdANob21lX2Nva2UEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yeQRzbGsDdHdvbGlieWFuZmln
 
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  • #893
turbo-1 said:
Edit: Breaking news. Earlier today a couple of Libyan fighter jets landed in Malta. It is reported that the pilots (colonels) decided to defect after being ordered to bomb protesters in Benghazi.

Thank the heavens, that is absolute lunacy!
 
  • #894
turbo-1 said:
Libya is tribally fragmented, and he has maintained control by playing groups off against one another. What will happen if he leaves, and who will fill the power vacuum and control the military? Will his clan try to continue to hold power? Will there be inter-tribal warfare or a divided country? I'd hate to have huge fixed investments in Libya, like oil-production infrastructure, with that kind of uncertainty. If a coalition of tribes bands together to seize power, and they decide to finance their new government by nationalizing foreign concerns, there could be some upheaval in the oil markets.

Edit: Breaking news. Earlier today a couple of Libyan fighter jets landed in Malta. It is reported that the pilots (colonels) decided to defect after being ordered to bomb protesters in Benghazi.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/us_libya_protests_malta;_ylt=ArdyqmsuHrCx_RtnzmAObsWs0NUE;_ylu=X3oDMTNuaHFhMHFwBGFzc2V0A25tLzIwMTEwMjIxL3VzX2xpYnlhX3Byb3Rlc3RzX21hbHRhBGNjb2RlA21vc3Rwb3B1bGFyBGNwb3MDMgRwb3MDNwRwdANob21lX2Nva2UEc2VjA3luX3RvcF9zdG9yeQRzbGsDdHdvbGlieWFuZmln

It's confirmed; there's video now of the pilots disembarking in Malta, 2 MiGs...

Reuters said:
- Two Libyan Air Force fighter pilots defected on Monday and flew their jets to Malta where they told authorities they had been ordered to bomb protesters, Maltese government officials said.

They said the two pilots, both colonels, took off from a base near Tripoli. One of them has requested political asylum.

From what I saw they had a simple "iron bomb" loadout... Ghaddaffi was going to drop bombs on his second largest city. :bugeye: A helicopter can use rockets and its gun, but iron bombs from a JET?! Wow... that is COLD.


EDIT: merger
Greg Bernhardt said:
Thank the heavens, that is absolute lunacy!

Unfortunately their helicopter pilots don't seem as restrained. Still... good for those pilots... that's not easy. If they have family in Libya, and Ghaddafi survives this... it's typical for them to used as hostages. Very VERY brave <snip> men.
 
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  • #895
nismaratwork said:
It's confirmed; there's video now of the pilots disembarking in Malta, 2 MiGs...

Both were colonels!
 
  • #896
Greg Bernhardt said:
Both were colonels!

True, but without knowing the Libyan military structure, it may be that you don't trust a fighter jet to anything less. I'm not even sure what a Libyan Colonel represents... in the USA it would be someone carrying out the orders of generals along the chain of command.

Of course... Isn't 'uncle' Moamar a Col.?! :wink:

Still, the Ghaddafis must be fuming at the loss of the jets and armaments. Hence the insane bravery... they've probably just killed their families (usually "kept") back in Al 'Azīzīyah... very brave.
 
  • #897
Just a correction - the fighters were French-built Mirages, not MIGs.
 
  • #898
Venezuela denies that Qaddafi is headed there, rumors that Qaddafi left are unconfirmed.

No major newswire has confirmed the rumor.

http://www.allheadlinenews.com/articles/7023570330?Gaddafi%20rumored%20to%20have%20left%20Libya;%20travel%20to%20Venezuela%20denied#
 
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  • #899
turbo-1 said:
Just a correction - the fighters were French-built Mirages, not MIGs.

Whoops! That's not a small miss...

News: US official, according to CNN that helicopter gunships are opening fire (at least with main guns) into crowds outisde of Tripoli.
 
  • #900
Libya protests spread as barrier of fear crumbles
The son of Libyan leader Muammar Qaddafi tried to intimidate Libyans Sunday, warning in a TV speech of civil war and foreign plots. But Libya's wave of democracy protests is strengthening as protesters ignore violence that has claimed more than 200 lives.

http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Midd...a-protests-spread-as-barrier-of-fear-crumbles

Clinton: Gadhafi must stop bloodshed
http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20110221/ap_on_re_us/us_us_libya


Like Gadhafi is going to listen and restrain himself?

How about a no fly zone? Prevent the helicopters from firing on civilians.
 
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