News What is the current time on the Doomsday Clock?

[Evo]

Good catch Evo. But did you have to look it up to know that I had misused the term?

I actually knew David's post had. I had assumed your post was correct in addressing earlier posts from where Russ had brought up the Hitler reference in another thread. I was just skimming. Your post was from quite earlier and I had actually missed it. I have been ill lately and not reading as much as I should.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

According to this article, as of right now North Korea has missiles that can reach South Korea and Japan, and already knows how to shrink its Hiroshima-strength nuclear bombs to fit in the warheads.

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/04/24/world/asia/north-korea-nuclear-missile-program.html?_r=0

The experts say NK will have about 50 bombs by the end of President Trump's first term.

But it seems it may take a few more years until NK can nuke Seattle.

"By most estimates, that is four or five years away. Then again, many senior officials said the same four or five years ago."

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

The article is about the cyberwarfare program against the North Korea missile program. But as it mentions, this effort has limits. The article concludes that "the only hope now is stopping the country from developing an intercontinental missile, and demonstrating that destructive threat to the world."

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/04/...edCoverage&region=EndOfArticle&pgtype=article

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

There are reports that the leader Kim in North Korea may be setting up for an EMP attack on the USA. It seems they already have two satellites that fly over the USA. Perhaps one of his failed missile tests actually did not fail. I won't link to the article, however, because I wonder about the political agenda behind it. Think North Korea, Iran, etc. But you can find recent stories about this, and how it may be based on an earlier Soviet plan to launch an EMP attack as a prelude to an all-out ICBM attack against the American ICBM bases. We'd better guard ourselves or we'll get mugged off by Kim's boys. Proper naughty moody geezers, ain't they? Worse than a gaggle of enraged airline flight attendants.

[EDIT

This leads up to my technical question. Are you EMP hardened in terms of your basic needs? Is it even possible today? Could anyone who is not living off the grid survive technologically?

I recall a story about a captured MIG fighter from the cold war. NATO analysts were surprised that the Soviets still used vacuum tubes for some equipment, when they could have used transistors. Some believed the reason was because vacuum tube equipment is not damaged by an EMP. Is this true?

On the other hand, I read about a Cold War test in which the USA detonated a high altitude device to simulate an EMP attack. It turned out to not be as bad as they thought. There was some damage to electronic equipment, but it was not catastrophic.

If anyone has any expertise in EMP, please shed some light on this topic. But perhaps no one is interested in this topic unless it's part of their job. It's difficult to think about.

 

[mheslep]

A thread discussing the validity of "doomsday" clock is doomed to descend into conspiracy theories without references. "There are reports" is not the best way to start.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

There are always "reports". The question is by who? But news is not science. Knowing a variety of reports doesn't hurt, but then again it can be confusing sometimes.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Sorry for not providing some links regarding EMP attacks. Here are two to start with. I do not vouch for them. There are more which I can provide if desired. Basically I'm just asking if anyone on PF has expertise in this field, and if so what is their opinion?

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/...m-kim-jong-un-attack-west-trump-a7725121.html

http://observer.com/2017/04/kim-jong-un-north-korea-ballistic-missiles-threat/

 

[Stavros Kiri]

There must be someone. It would indeed be really helpful!

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

Regarding vacuum tubes and EMP, here are links relevant to the captured MIG I mentioned.

http://blog.thetubestore.com/emp-its-np-for-the-6c33c-b-tube/

https://theaviationist.com/2013/07/19/foxbat-defection/

I remember reading that at least some USA mil-spec chips are EMP hardened but I don't have time to look up the links right now.[EDIT]

http://www.thetubestore.com/Tubes/Big-Power-Tubes/6C33C-B

 

[mheslep]

There must be someone. It would indeed be really helpful!

Helpful to whom? Nuclear weapons experts don't make online blog posts about nuclear weapons.

Some public information is available about nuclear EMP from the atmospheric tests decades ago. Starfish Prime was a 1.3 *megaton* test. It was detonated above the atmosphere some 900 miles from Hawaii, and knocked out a few streetlights there. N. Korea's weapons are widely reported as some *one thousand times* less powerful, and there are no reports that NK has any path to the thermal nuclear technology required for megaton yields.
Draw your own conclusions as to why NK would risk its own destruction in a feeble EMP attempt as opposed to destroying a city from a ground detonation of a Hiroshima sized weapon in a shipping container.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

There is much publicly available information on nuclear weapons, including formerly classified material which has been declassified. This is part of US government policy. The following page contains information on this policy. Of course the policy may change.

https://www.osti.gov/opennet/forms.jsp?formurl=document/press/pc26.html

Here are some more links on EMP. Personally, I have no opinion about it. I'm just collecting information.

http://www.nipp.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/EMP-Paper-Final-November07.pdf

http://www.militaryaerospace.com/articles/print/volume-25/issue-6/technology-focus/rad-hard-moves-into-the-submicron-age.html

http://www.eei.org/issuesandpolicy/cybersecurity/Documents/Electromagnetic%20Pulses%20(EMPs)%20-%20Myths%20vs.%20Facts.pdf

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Helpful to whom?

Helpful to our knowledge + interesting. That's what I meant.

 

[WWGD]

Garbage. I completely disregard any question that asks me to quantify my feelings on some scale. It was silly of me to mention a public poll you cannot even trust political polls. What does anybody's perception have to do with reality except perhaps lead to irrational behavior.

People act and react based on their perception of the situation, not on the reality of it.

 

[Buckleymanor]

People act and react based on their perception of the situation, not on the reality of it.

I agree here seems to be a good example from the BBC. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-39911530
The figures with regards altitude distance and speed don't add up "well to me they don't" if anyone could explain them I would be grate full.
Quote:-
The nature of the launch is still being determined, but analysts have said the test could suggest a longer range than previously tested devices.

The Japanese defence minister said it flew for about 30 minutes before falling in the Sea of Japan and could be a new type of missile.

Tomomi Inada said it covered a distance of about 700km (435 miles), reaching an altitude of more than 2,000km (1,245 miles) - higher than that reached by an intermediate-range missile North Korea fired in February.

Experts quoted by Reuters say the altitude meant the missile was launched at a high trajectory, limiting the lateral distance it travelled. They say if it had been fired at a standard trajectory, it would have had a range of at least 4,000km.

 

[Aufbauwerk 2045]

I'm basically off social media but I wanted to check in just to see what the brilliant people on PF have to say these days about the doomsday clock.

I used to be all about peace and avoiding nuclear war at all costs. Now I'm less hopeful and I'm all about survival skills and mastering my favorite assault rifle. When I'm not doing that, I'm thinking about where I would like to be buried if I never make it to my secret bunker, and there is anything left to bury.

Now on a technical note, I assume calculations are being made as we speak about how much nuclear weaponry would be needed to obliterate the DPRK infrastructure in 15 minutes. Some General mentioned launching thousands of cruise missiles, but how many of those would have nukes? Do we even have thousands of cruise missiles right now?

Another technical note: I listened to a radio program today in which a man who visited an ICBM launching facility said they are still using floppy disks. But he said not to worry, the equipment is old, but they keep on using it because it works. I just hope those old floppies are backed up. I bought some flash drives recently at Fry's. The price is very low and they seem reliable. As a matter of fact, I accidentally left a flash drive in my jeans and ran them through the washer and dryer. It seemed to do no harm at all to the flash drive.

Now as for the doomsday clock, I have no idea what is going to happen. Would sending lots of "fire, fury, and frankly power, of a type the world has not yet seen" make us less safe, or more safe? I think the answer is not obvious. I think I would feel more safe. I also think my opinion is worth just as much as that of the experts who came up with the doomsday clock idea in the first place.

 

[DiracPool]

I'm basically off social media but I wanted to check in just to see what the brilliant people on PF have to say these days about the doomsday clock.

Yes, thanks for asking. I am one of the brilliant people of PF and I will respond to your comment.

Please refer to my post #3 in this thread. Coincidentally, I actually had a discussion on the subject with my lab group on this subject this morning, seeing all the news hype around the North Korea thing.

http://thebulletin.org/clock/2017

This morning I recounted to the group a moment in time, probably circa 2004 or so when I was running a business in Seattle and playing fast and loose with the law in order to maximize our profits. We weren't technically doing anything illegal (as far as I knew), but we really weren't doing much research into whether it was legal, if you know what I mean

So, there was this one point where I had a serious talk with a business colleague who was older and wiser than me that warned me, and these were his exact words, "Just because something bad hasn't happened yet, doesn't mean that something bad is not going to happen." That kind of hit me, impactly, at the time, and has stayed with me.

Meaning, don't get too comfy with precedent. Nukes are a two-edged sword. Their existence has probably saved hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives over the last 70 years in their deterrent of other worldwide conflicts, but the proliferation of "nuclear states" is daunting.

I love science fiction, but whenever I hear people talk of "where will we be in the 22nd century or the third millennium, or even 2050, all I can think about is this is wishful thinking, there's no way we as a (human) species are going to make it to 2100. This is perhaps one of the main reasons I do what I do. I love our species and don't want to see it go extinct. The best hope for that is to create machines in our own image and send them off through the galaxy.

 

[Stavros Kiri]

Don't worry, nothing will happen (IMO), perhaps just a new cold war, which basically means nothing ... or positive!

Nukes are a two-edged sword. Their existence has probably saved hundreds of thousands if not millions of lives over the last 70 years in their deterrent of other worldwide conflicts,

Regarding:

there's no way we as a (human) species are going to make it to 2100.

I strongly disagree! "We will make it! ... we always have! ...".
Or at least for another millennium or so ... (IMO).

The best hope for that is to create machines in our own image and send them off through the galaxy.

Machines is not the only solution. We are! ...
We just have to improve our species in all possible ways ... starting with ourselves!
Machines in our own current image will be bound to do or reproduce the same things we have ... over and over again. And being attached to war thinking and habbits is something that really has to change ... if we really want to survive. But I think, we'll survive anyway! We might as well then do it peacefully ... It's easier and much less painful! ...

Because if we don't survive, something very much more valuable (than just local, partial etc. interests and profits) will get lost: real consciousness and intelligence. Artificial Intelligence (AI) simply won't be the same.

 

[Evo]

This has become about specific politics, posts have been deleted, thread closed.