What is the probability of a correct rain prediction in this weather forecast?

In summary, the probability of the weather forecast predicting rain tomorrow is 13/16. This is calculated by considering the average number of rainy days and predicting rain or no rain consistently with a 9/10 accuracy rate. The probability of rain and no rain can be represented by P and 1-P respectively, with the total probability of rain being equal to P + 1/10.
  • #1
nokia8650
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The weather is dreadful here. It rains on three times as many days as there are rain-free days. Luckily the daily weather forecast is fairly good. Whether the forecast is for rain or for no rain, it is correct on nine occasions out of ten.
What is the probability that the weather forecast will predict rain tomorrow?

The answer is 13/16, however I am unable to see how to arrive at this answer. Could someone please let me know of the working in order to receive this asnwer?

Thanks in advance.
 
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  • #2


Consider N days, figure out how often it rains (on average, of course), and how often rain (x times) or no rain (N-x times) is predicted, and make that consistent with 9/10 predictions for rain and no rain being correct.

Then x/N=13/16 indeed.
 
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  • #3


Thanks a lot for the reply. It will rain 3 days for every one it doesn't = 3/4. How do I make this consistent with the 9/10?

Thanks
 
  • #4


Suppose that the probability of the weatherman predicting rain tomorrow was [itex]P[/itex], then the probability of him not predicting rain is ___? If he is correct 9/10 of the time, that means he is wrong 1/10 of the time...what does that mean that the total probability of it raining tomorrow is in terms of [itex]P[/itex]?
 
  • #5


A hint: the number of rainy days is the number of days with correct rain prediction plus the number of days with false no rain prediction.
 

Related to What is the probability of a correct rain prediction in this weather forecast?

1. What does the percentage in a weather forecast probability mean?

The percentage in a weather forecast probability represents the likelihood of a particular weather event occurring in a given area. For example, if a forecast says there is a 50% chance of rain, it means that there is a 50% chance of rain occurring in that specific location.

2. How is the weather forecast probability calculated?

The weather forecast probability is calculated by meteorologists using a combination of weather data, computer models, and their expertise. They take into account factors such as past weather patterns, current atmospheric conditions, and the behavior of weather systems to determine the probability of a particular weather event.

3. What is the difference between a "chance of rain" and "probability of precipitation" in a weather forecast?

There is no difference between these two terms. Both refer to the likelihood of rain occurring in a given area. The term "chance of rain" is typically used by meteorologists, while "probability of precipitation" is often used by weather forecasters.

4. Why do weather forecast probabilities sometimes change throughout the day?

The weather forecast probability can change throughout the day as new weather data becomes available and weather patterns shift. Meteorologists are constantly monitoring and analyzing weather conditions, which allows them to update and adjust the forecast as needed.

5. Can the weather forecast probability be 100% accurate?

No, the weather forecast probability is not 100% accurate. While meteorologists use advanced technology and data to make forecasts, there are still many variables that can affect the accuracy of the prediction. These factors include changes in weather patterns, unexpected shifts in atmospheric conditions, and the complexity of weather systems.

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