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Stargazing Solar Activity and Space Weather Update thread

  1. Aug 22, 2017 #1
    I am picking this up as a continuation and extension of the idea laid out e.g. in @davenn 's thread
    "The Sun today - 9 July 2017 - nice spot group"
    https://www.physicsforums.com/threads/the-sun-today-9-july-2017-nice-spot-group.919696/

    See also (for continuity purposes):
    https://www.physicsforums.com/threa...17-nice-spot-group.919696/page-2#post-5825645

    But the idea here is extended not to just one day or around that time, but to monitor the Sun's activity and Space Weather over time, beginning right after the Eclipse (in the US) of Aug. 21, 2017.
    Everyone is welcome and encouraged to post valid updates for noticed significant solar activity and space weather facts and events, including personal or otherwise photos, videos etc., as long as they are valid. That also includes quoting appropriate [PF accepted] articles and sources, and other valid means of correct relevant imformation, or scientific news and updates on the field.

    Currently there are still two significant Sun Spot groups, that acquire the names "group region 2671" and ".. region 2672". Here is a view of the Sun today 22 Aug. 2017, one day after the eclipse:
    "
    logo.png
    Sunspot regions

    On this page you'll find an overview of all the visible sunspot regions on the Sun together with their properties, images and the chances on solar flares or proton events. This page is updated daily and the sunspot images every hour.

    SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg

    Region 2671
    Number of
    sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    18 250 -180 FSI N10W32
    2671_HMIIF.jpg 2671_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities

    C M X Proton
    55% 10% 1% 1%
    Region 2672
    Number of
    sunspots Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    10 5 270 110 DAO N08E46
    2672_HMIIF.jpg 2672_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities

    C M X Proton
    45% 5% 1% 1%
    Back to top
    Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
    Active geomagnetic conditions expected
    Latest news
    295-thumb.jpg
    Sunday, 20 August 2017 - 07:31 UTC
    M1.2 solar flare, C7.0 solar flare

    More news
    Today's space weather
    Auroral activity Minor Severe
    High latitude 25% 40%
    Middle latitude 10% 1%
    Predicted Kp max 4
    Aurora forecast HelpMore data
    Solar activity
    M-class solar flare 15%
    X-class solar flare 1%
    Sunspot regionsMore data
    Moon phase
    New Moon
    Moon Phases Calendar
    "

    Source: https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/solar-activity/sunspot-regions
     
    Last edited: Aug 22, 2017
  2. jcsd
  3. Aug 25, 2017 #2
    Here is the view of the sun today, Aug. 25, 2017, after 3 days of rotation. Region 2671 is getting ready to leave us. Region 2672 still has some future ahead ...
    logo.png


    SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg

    Note that these are telescope views (inverted image).
    With direct visual mode[/view] (upright image) we see in the afternoon and forth a picture oriantation similar to the above, while in the morning hours an upside down version of it.
     
    Last edited: Aug 25, 2017
  4. Aug 27, 2017 #3
    Spot region 2671 just left us a few hours ago, today Sun 27 Aug., 2017. The remaining group 2672 is also winding down. Perhaps we are heading to a spotless day soon (last one was Aug 1).
    Right now solar wind a bit high, with active geomagnetic conditions expected. Here is a full update:
    "
    logo.png
    Sunspot regions
    On this page you'll find an overview of all the visible sunspot regions on the Sun together with their properties, images and the chances on solar flares or proton events. This page is updated daily and the sunspot images every hour.

    SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg

    Region 2672
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    10 -2 130 -10 EAI N07W20
    2672_HMIIF.jpg 2672_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    45% 10% 1% 1%
    Solar flares from today
    B1.6 B1.4
    Back to top
    Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
    Active geomagnetic conditions expected
    The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (520.6 km/sec.)

    Latest news
    295-thumb.jpg
    Sunday, 20 August 2017 - 07:31 UTC
    M1.2 solar flare, C7.0 solar flare
    More news
    Today's space weather
    Auroral activity Minor Severe
    High latitude 15% 15%
    Middle latitude 1% 1%
    Predicted Kp max 4
    Aurora forecast HelpMore data
    Solar activity
    M-class solar flare 10%
    X-class solar flare 1%
    Sunspot regionsMore data
    Moon phase
    Waxing Crescent
    Moon Phases Calendar
    "
    + (some Almanac facts:)


    "
    Space weather facts

    Last X-flare: 2015/05/05 X2.7
    Last M-flare: 2017/08/20 M1.1
    Last geomagnetic storm: 2017/08/23 Kp5 (G1)
    Number of spotless days in 2017: 56
    Current stretch spotless days: 2
    This day in history*
    Solar flares
    1 1999 X1.1
    2 2002 M4.6
    3 1999 M2.8
    4 2015 M2.2
    5 2015 M2.1
    Ap G
    1 2015 40 G2
    2 1998 30 G1
    3 2000 27 G1
    4 2014 19 G1
    5 2003 18
    *since 1994
    "
     
  5. Aug 30, 2017 #4
    Last edited: Aug 30, 2017
  6. Aug 31, 2017 #5
    Four groups visible now. Wow! Local record.
    SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg
     
  7. Sep 1, 2017 #6
    "
    SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg

    Region 2672
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    4 -2 70 DAO N07W81
    2672_HMIIF.jpg 2672_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    25% 1% 1% 1%
    Region 2673
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    1 80 10 HSX S08E25
    2673_HMIIF.jpg 2673_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    5% 1% 1% 1%
    Region 2674
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    10 5 770 280 EHO N13E42
    2674_HMIIF.jpg 2674_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    40% 10% 1% 1%
    Solar flares from today
    B4.9 B3.4 B4.6 B7.1 B3.7 C2.0
    Region 2675 New
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    4 30 DRO S07W35
    2675_HMIIF.jpg 2675_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    10% 1% 1% 1%
    Back to top
    Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
    The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (623.6 km/sec.)

    Latest news

    298-thumb.jpg
    Friday, 1 September 2017 - 18:03 UTC
    Sunspot region 2674
    More news
    Today's space weather
    Auroral activity Minor Severe
    High latitude 20% 20%
    Middle latitude 35% 10%
    Predicted Kp max 5
    Aurora forecast HelpMore data
    Solar activity
    M-class solar flare 10%
    X-class solar flare 1%
    B4.9 B3.4 B4.6 B7.1 B3.7 B4.8 B5.1 C2.0 C1.2
    Sunspot regionsMore data
    Moon phase
    Waxing Gibbious
    Moon Phases Calendar "



    Group 2672 departing, while 2674 becomes a potential player! ...
    https://www.spaceweatherlive.com/en/news/view/298/20170901-sunspot-region-2674
     
  8. Sep 2, 2017 #7
    Total newb here, when it comes to observing sunspots, or even observing the sun at all...

    I see that your images have a location listed for where the spots are. How do you record a location on a swirling ball of gases and plasma? Is the system set up to just locate on the disk, and each image records a new location with regards to the disk top/bottom, left/right, or do you have some magical fixed point of reference, that rotates with the sun? (The sun does rotate, right?)

    Since I don't know if sunspots move, looking at the locations listed doesn't really get me to a definitive answer....

    Sorry if it's a stupid question, but it begged asking.
     
  9. Sep 2, 2017 #8
    No stupid question at all. AR s (Active Regions) [of Sun spot groups] are dynamic and get a sequence number as they appear, where they appear. E.g. the next one will be 2676 (last one was 2675) etc.
    The Sun does rotate of course, but the rotation period depends on the latitude, because the Sun is composed of a gaseous plasma (24.47 days at the equator versus 38 days at the poles) [differential rotation ...].

    Regarding charting and orientation in the Sun, I am not an expert either, but I will try to learn some more and perhaps get back later.
     
  10. Sep 3, 2017 #9
    SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg
    This is interesting. They just became 5 groups visible (one gone [2672], but two new came [2676 and, just fresh, 2677]).

    2674 is the biggest (kind of huge) and 2673 seems to have just started growing.

    Also time again for "eye tests". Group 2674 is also visible with unaided eye (wearing solar [eclipse] glasses of course)! You just need to know where to look, and a good vision. I saw it clearly yesterday and today (Sept. 3). By tomorrow perhaps group 2673 will also be similarly visible. We'll see.
    But CAUTION: never look at the sun with naked eye, or not even with just sun glasses
    (even if the sun is behind clouds). Use solar [eclipse] glasses, or other appropriate filter, with your eyes, cameras, telescopes and other instruments ...
     
  11. Sep 4, 2017 #10
    Still 5 groups visible right now (but not for long). 2 major huge ones (2673, 2674).

    Yep!
    Also CAUTION: and in any case do not look at the Sun for long, even if you have protection (I usually observe at max 30 sec intervals, spaced out in between ...). Non visible consequences may be in effect ...

    Today's update: a few M-class strong flares from group 2673. Latest one M4.21, advised about an hour ago.

    Summary of current space weather facts:

    Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes

    G1 - Minor geomagnetic storm expected
    The observed Kp index is 4+ but the predicted K-indice of 5- indicates that stronger geomagnetic conditions might occur at this moment.

    The solar wind speed is currently moderately high (594.9 km/sec.)

    The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
    M4.21

    S1 Space Radiation Storm
    At the moment there is a minor S1 class space radiation storm active. This happens about 50 times in one solar cycle.

    Latest news
    299-thumb.jpg
    Monday, 4 September 2017 - 16:35 UTC
    M-class solar flares, Sunspot region 2673

    Note: group region 2673 has grown rapidly into a "player" the past 48 hours. 2674 is still big and important though. The rest ones seem to be winding down, two setting soon.
    So ... a lot going on in the Sun, that we usually ignore! It's not just a bright fire ball in our day sky! ...
     
    Last edited: Sep 4, 2017
  12. Sep 6, 2017 #11
    Just for a very short time 6 groups now visible (new one appeared, 2678). The biggest one now is 2673, which grew very rapidly the last few days. It also gave rise to significant class M- flares, which will be affecting earth shortly (Geomagnetic storm, predicted Kp index 7, possibly even radio blackout and significant aurora activity expected). Here is some more details from SpaceWeatherLive.com:
    "
    SDO_HMIIF_512.jpg

    Region 2673
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    33 5 880 200 DKC S09W35
    2673_HMIIF.jpg 2673_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    95% 55% 25% 95%
    Region 2674
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    23 -11 680 -60 FHI N14W19
    2674_HMIIF.jpg 2674_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    75% 20% 1% 1%
    Region 2675
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    1 -3 10 BXO S07W87
    2675_HMIIF.jpg 2675_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    5% 1% 1% 1%
    Region 2676
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    2 -2 30 BXO S09W81
    2676_HMIIF.jpg 2676_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    5% 1% 1% 1%
    Region 2677
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    1 -1 20 10 AXX N18E34
    2677_HMIIF.jpg 2677_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    5% 1% 1% 1%
    Region 2678 New
    Number of
    sunspots
    Size Class Magn. Class Spot Location
    2 10 BXO N11E40
    2678_HMIIF.jpg 2678_HMIBC.jpg
    Flare probabilities
    C M X Proton
    5% 1% 1% 1%
    Back to top
    Current data suggest that it is not possible to see aurora now at middle latitudes
    The maximum X-ray flux of the past two hours is:
    M7.7
    S1 Space Radiation Storm
    At the moment there is a minor S1 class space radiation storm active. This happens about 50 times in one solar cycle.
    Latest news
    299-thumb.jpg
    Monday, 4 September 2017 - 16:35 UTC
    M-class solar flares, Sunspot region 2673
    More news
    Today's space weather
    Auroral activity Minor Severe
    High latitude 10% 90%
    Middle latitude 40% 45%
    Predicted Kp max 7
    Aurora forecast HelpMore data
    Solar activity
    M-class solar flare 75%
    X-class solar flare 25%
    Sunspot regionsMore data
    Moon phase
    Full Moon
    Moon Phases Calendar

    Space weather facts
    Last X-flare: 2015/05/05 X2.7
    Last M-flare: 2017/09/05 M2.3
    Last geomagnetic storm: 2017/09/04 Kp5 (G1)
    Number of spotless days in 2017: 56
    Last spotless day: 2017/08/01
    This day in history*
    Solar flares
    1 2011 X2.1
    2 2011 M5.3
    3 2012 M1.6
    4 2005 M1.4
    5 2014 M1.1
    Ap G
    1 1995 23 G2
    2 2004 14
    3 1994 14 G1
    4 2016 13
    5 2015 13
    *since 1994 "
     
  13. Sep 6, 2017 #12

    davenn

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member


    update .... there's been a M7.7 flare in the last 2 hrs :smile:
     
  14. Sep 6, 2017 #13

    davenn

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member

    another update .... a X9.3 monster .... largest flare in a decade
     
  15. Sep 6, 2017 #14
  16. Sep 6, 2017 #15
    Last edited: Sep 6, 2017
  17. Sep 7, 2017 #16

    davenn

    User Avatar
    Science Advisor
    Gold Member


    please call me Dave :smile:
    the nn are the first and last letters of my surname

    I have used davenn on the internet since the early - mid 1990's

    Dave
     
  18. Sep 7, 2017 #17
    Ok Dave :smile:
     
  19. Sep 7, 2017 #18
    New type IV moderate radio blackout effective (from a previous class M-flare, a couple of hours ago) and a new strong M7.36 flare the last hour ...
     
  20. Sep 7, 2017 #19
    Also, latest type II radio emission and another X-class flare (X1.39), from group 2673. Also more activity in between, since the last update. Looks like the Sun is having a party! ...
     
  21. Sep 8, 2017 #20
    A portion of AR2674 has now completely separated and became AR2679 (again 5 groups visible now, 2 major). Also the large CME arrival:
    "Latest news
    305-thumb.jpg
    Friday, 8 September 2017 - 03:37 UTC
    X9.3 CME impact, Severe G4 storm
    More news"

    Max predicted Kp index 8 (G4)! [The highest is 9 (G5).] Aurora time!

    Also new strong M8.12 solar flare from group 2673, the past hour or so.
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2017
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