What is the Probability of Getting 16 Yes Answers in a Small Population Survey?

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SUMMARY

The probability of obtaining 16 'Yes' answers from a survey of 20 individuals out of a total population of 35 is calculated using binomial probability. The analysis indicates that the likelihood of the remaining 15 individuals answering 'No' is 0.003%. This calculation assumes that the probability of answering 'Yes' or 'No' is equal among those not surveyed. The discussion highlights the importance of understanding binomial distributions in small population surveys.

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  • Understanding of binomial probability distribution
  • Familiarity with basic statistical concepts
  • Knowledge of survey sampling techniques
  • Ability to perform probability calculations
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  • Study binomial probability formulas and applications
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  • Explore statistical software for probability calculations
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Statisticians, survey researchers, data analysts, and anyone involved in designing or interpreting survey results in small populations.

moonman239
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Let's say I survey 20 people out of a 35-person population. 16 people answered yes to a particular question. What is the probability that only 16 people out of the total population would answer yes?

Attempt at a solution: The number of those not surveyed have an equal
probability of answering yes or no. Thus the probability of
those not surveyed all answering no is .003%.
 
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How did you get 0.003%?

What is the probability that any given individual will answer 'yes'?
How many people are remaining?
 

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