Jimmy Snyder
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Hopes that the US is in recession were given a hearty boost today as the Commerce Department reported a contraction of 0.3% in the GDP in the last quarter. This is the worst quarter since 2001. Actually, I find that encouraging in the light of predictions by half the people that this would be the worst quarter since the great depression, and the other half predicting it would be the worst quarter since the nation's founding. GDP was forecast to drop 0.5% according to the median of 75 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. This is inconsistent with my view that economists are completely nuts, but is consistent with the opinion that they are 66% nuts.
We have not had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so I doubt the NBER will give you what you want this quarter. However, recent events do not point to growth and other indicators have been weak as well, so you should definitely not give up hope for the future.
We have not had two consecutive quarters of negative growth, so I doubt the NBER will give you what you want this quarter. However, recent events do not point to growth and other indicators have been weak as well, so you should definitely not give up hope for the future.
