What is wrong with the US economy? Part 2

[Astronuc]

Seriously, I have heard that if GM/Chrysler and Ford go down, then it could probably take out about $1 trillion worth of economic activity based upon all the other companies that support the auto industry, e.g. tires, parts, . . . .

What is the viable alternative to what Congressional leaders and the auto-industry are proposing?


AIG appears to be in worse shape than originally believed, and the government is throwing $150+ billion at that company alone.

The US economy is in deep doo-doo and it is becoming mind-bogglingly surreal.

 

[mgb_phys]

But then if the banks are doing such a bad job that they need all this help - why are the managers still making multi-million dollar salaries + bonuses?

You're a manager of a business that just persuaded the government to give you $700bn of raw materials for free with no strings attached - I'd say that deserved a pretty good bonus!

 

[mheslep]

...The problem is now we have global warming and the river doesn't freeze as it did in distant past. And the water is polluted with PCB's, agricultural run-off, and a variety of bacteria, e.g. coliform, which cause a variety of intestinal illnesses if ingested.

That's a great side by side illustration of my main objection to throwing finite resources at AWG. First there is the water in your river which is polluted to some degree and is a measurable fact; the effects of that pollution on human health are well known. The effectiveness of means to clean it up are clear and well understood, that is, we know quite well how much cleaner the water will become from a dollar of clean-up. Second we have AWG, where the degree of warming credited to CO2 and feedbacks is based on theory and sketch models, that even the temperature trend itself since '98 is debatable, and most importantly it appears even colossal amounts of carbon cap money will do little about it. All of that pig in poke AWG money is to be spent immediately or supposedly the entire world will suffer the most dire consequences, while the pollution in your river (and mine) becomes a "we'll do it later."

 

[Astronuc]

You're a manager of a business that just persuaded the government to give you $700bn of raw materials for free with no strings attached - I'd say that deserved a pretty good bonus!

Sadly - the managers didn't persuade the government - the government persuaded itself that it was necessary to go down the path it did with the bailout. And it's going much further down that path apparently.

Like I said - it's becoming mind-bogglingly surreal. It's like watching a bunch of monetary crack addicts.

 

[Astronuc]

That's a great side by side illustration of my main objection to throwing finite resources at AGW. First there is the water in your river which is polluted to some degree and is a measurable fact; the effects of that pollution on human health are well known. The effectiveness of means to clean it up are clear and well understood, that is, we know quite well how much cleaner the water will become from a dollar of clean-up. Second we have AGW, where the degree of warming credited to CO2 and feedbacks is based on theory and sketch models, that even the temperature trend itself since '98 is debatable, and most importantly it appears even colossal amounts of carbon cap money will do little about it. All of that pig in poke AWG money is to be spent immediately or supposedly the entire world will suffer the most dire consequences, while the pollution in your river (and mine) becomes a "we'll do it later."

Note that I didn't mention AGW, just GW.

We also get brown air from PA and OH - and heavy metals like Hg - that blow in on the wind. As soon as one gets about 4 to 5 thousand feet in the air, one can look eastward and see how brown the atmosphere is. I've seen that brown air all the way down the east coast from NY to Atlanta.

But that's a whole other topic.

 

[mheslep]

Seriously, I have heard that if GM/Chrysler and Ford go down, then it could probably take out about $1 trillion worth of economic activity based upon all the other companies that support the auto industry, e.g. tires, parts, . . . .

What is the viable alternative to what Congressional leaders and the auto-industry are proposing?...

Detroit is not the be all and end all of the auto industry. There >100,000 good American auto jobs in Ala, Tn, and elsewhere. In any case I've seen no prediction that all three of these companies would cease to exist. At least one or two is bound to continue operations after bankruptcy. Its the management, shareholders value that would cease to exist, and rightfully so, along with some line jobs. Id favor unemployment benefits and retraining money before creating United States Automotive.

 

[Astronuc]

Detroit is not the be all and end all of the auto industry. There >100,000 good American auto jobs in Ala, Tn, and elsewhere. In any case I've seen no prediction that all three of these companies would cease to exist. At least one or two is bound to continue operations after bankruptcy. Its the management, shareholders value that would cease to exist, and rightfully so, along with some line jobs. Id favor unemployment benefits and retraining money before creating United States Automotive.

I think GM/Chrysler and Ford are hoping to survive long enough to retool and produce more efficient and consumer-desirable vehicles. The respective financing arms however are probably also in trouble with increases in repos and bad investments outside the auto-industry.

That other side of letting them go under is that millions of people (consumers) with GM/Ford cars and trucks my be stuck without service. Lots of dealerships have gone under as well, and those surviving might not be able to switch to competitors' brands.

I'm quite happy with Honda.

 

[mgb_phys]

So is the problem.
A, years of producing expensive gas guzzlers where the only R+D was how to fit more cupholders?
B, managers that haven't yet realized it's not 1950 and there are competitors out there?
C, unionised autoworkers that all make $250K a year?
D, that the car companies are really banks - they make their money by investing the returns on high interest car loans?
E, All of the above

 

[mheslep]

...That other side of letting them go under is that millions of people (consumers) with GM/Ford cars and trucks my be stuck without service.

You mean warranties. Service would not be under any threat. As long as there are vehicles on the street there will be shops to service them.

 

[Astronuc]

You mean warranties. Service would not be under any threat. As long as there are vehicles on the street there will be shops to service them.

With what parts? How long would inventories hold out? And wouldn't people raise prices because of concern over future supply?

 

[turbo]

With what parts? How long would inventories hold out? And wouldn't people raise prices because of concern over future supply?

The businesses supplying parts (equivalent, not OEM) would continue to operate and may actually thrive.

 

[mheslep]

With what parts? How long would inventories hold out? And wouldn't people raise prices because of concern over future supply?

?? The parts and inventory channels are fueled mainly by non big three suppliers, the big three largely slap the parts together. The parts suppliers would continue to run based on service demand for vehicles on the road, long after the original new year model becomes history, just as they do now.

Example - Ye olde Holley Carburetor:
http://www.autopartswarehouse.com/shop_parts/carburetor/ford/mustang.html

 

[mheslep]

Here's some jobs popping up: oil workers - $100k rig workers, $500k engineers, $80k to start BS out of school.

Offshore Rig Workers Call the Shots
Shortage of Specialized Labor Means High Salaries, Perks for Engineers and 'Roughnecks'
By JOHN W. MILLER

STAVANGER, Norway -- Industries world-wide are slashing costs and laying off workers. But one sector continues to recruit employees aggressively, dangling before them six-figure salaries, signing bonuses and job-training programs.

Multinational oil companies are grappling with a shortage of specialized labor for offshore rigs that promises to get worse. Drillers plan to erect 180 new offshore rigs over the next three years -- adding to the current total of 640 -- spanning the globe from the Vietnamese coast and the Caspian Sea to the Gulf of Mexico and Brazil. Every new offshore drilling operation requires an average of 200 workers, some offshore and some onshore.

Oil companies slowed hiring in the 1980s and '90s, resulting in too many workers over 50, and too few in their 30s and 40s.

It will take more than the recent drop in oil prices to $65 or $75 a barrel to derail these rig projects, companies say, even if the price downturn since the summer has led to postponements elsewhere, such as in oil sands and refineries. Oil development projects "take an average of 10 years to complete and operate for more than 30 years," said Susan Houghton, a human-resources official at Chevron Corp. "In 2008, we hired approximately 6,000 new employees and will continue that rate in 2009," she said.

Salaries for the most sought-after categories of oil workers have risen about a third over the past four years, according to Stephen Whittaker of Schlumberger Ltd., the world's biggest oil-services company by revenue. An experienced "roughneck," the nickname for rig workers, can make $100,000 a year, and top white-collar engineers can make as much as $500,000 a year, industry analysts and officials said.
...
Shawn Dawsey, one of Dr. Schechter's undergraduate students, switched his major to petroleum from electrical engineering last year. It has paid off. He will graduate in May and already has received eight job offers of around $80,000 a year. He said some of his peers worry about how declining oil prices could affect their prospects, "but the job offers keep coming," he said...

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122627626533412099.html
(subs. rqd)

 

[Ms Music]

With what parts? How long would inventories hold out? And wouldn't people raise prices because of concern over future supply?

Just look at Cuba. It can happen.

 

[turbo]

Just look at Cuba. It can happen.

One huge difference, though. '57 Chevies are pretty low-tech. I can tear down and rebuild a carb with no problem. I cannot tear down and rebuild an entire fuel system in a modern vehicle - injectors, pumps, computers and sensors controlling aspiration, ignition timing, excess oxygen, etc, etc.

 

[mgb_phys]

I cannot tear down and rebuild an entire fuel system in a modern vehicle - injectors, pumps, computers and sensors controlling aspiration, ignition timing, excess oxygen, etc, etc.

Whats worse is that even if you can buy the parts the service codes are covered by DRM and under the DMCA it is illegal for you to reverse engineer them.

 

[mheslep]

One huge difference, though. '57 Chevies are pretty low-tech. I can tear down and rebuild a carb with no problem. I cannot tear down and rebuild an entire fuel system in a modern vehicle - injectors, pumps, computers and sensors controlling aspiration, ignition timing, excess oxygen, etc, etc.

Yes but that is a difference only in the need for service expertise, not parts.

 

[turbo]

Yes but that is a difference only in the need for service expertise, not parts.

OEM computers might not be reproducible, though - the manufacturers don't even give out the diagnostic codes to independent mechanics. Small businesses (and around here that can mean a shop with 2-10 bays) can scan the diagnostics, but then you have to go to a factory dealership with error codes to get interpretation/service. Been there, done that.

 

[Proton Soup]

But then if the banks are doing such a bad job that they need all this help - why are the managers still making multi-million dollar salaries + bonuses?


The seems to be a surplus of bad managers - surely that should put downward pressure on salaries. Or does the law of supply and demand not apply to management and their salaries?

i think much of this is about extortion. sure, they're doing a bad job and are absolute failures. but without the extortion pay, you can't be guaranteed they'll stay and risk losing the whole business. that's the kind of thing we need to find a solution for. sending people to pound-me-in-the-*** prison might just work.

 

[Astronuc]

Just look at Cuba. It can happen.

That's great if one lives in Cuba.

Here's some jobs popping up: oil workers - $100k rig workers, $500k engineers, $80k to start BS out of school.

There are also positions in major league baseball, basketball, football, . . . . , that pay $1+ million/yr. But seriously, how many positions are there for top white collar engineers making $500 K?

http://www.upi.com/Business_News/20...l_rig_count_up_last_month/UPI-73091162920687/

HOUSTON, Nov. 7 (UPI) -- The number of oil and natural gas rigs running outside the United States last month rose by 16 to 965, a private company said Tuesday.

Houston's Baker Hughes Inc. (NYSE:BHI) also said October's international rig count was up

62 from the 903 counted in October 2005. Also, the international offshore rig count for October 2006 was 274, up 10 from the 264 counted in September 2006 and up 10 from the 264 counted in October 2005.

. . .

I doubt there are more than a couple of dozen job openings (if that) at $500 K/yr, and maybe at most a few thousand openings on various rigs.

Back in May of this year, AP reported

Published: May 10, 1988
LEAD: The number of working domestic oil and gas rigs rose by 17 last week, to a total of 897, Baker Hughes Inc. reported today. The rig count, the widely watched industry index of drilling activity, totaled 767 a year ago, Baker Hughes said.

The number of working domestic oil and gas rigs rose by 17 last week, to a total of 897, Baker Hughes Inc. reported today. The rig count, the widely watched industry index of drilling activity, totaled 767 a year ago, Baker Hughes said.

Still not a big number.



Meanwhile - Fannie Mae posts $29B loss, may tap gov't funding
http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/081110/earns_fannie_mae.html

WASHINGTON (AP) -- Fannie Mae on Monday posted a $29 billion loss in the third quarter as it took a massive tax-related charge, and said it may have to tap the government's $100 billion lifeline in the coming months.

The mortgage finance company, seized by federal regulators more than two months ago, posted a loss of $13 per share for the July-September quarter, mainly due to a $21.4 billion non-cash charge to reduce the value of tax assets. That compares with a loss of $1.4 billion, or $1.56 a share, in the year-ago period.

Analysts surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a loss of $1.60 per share.

Washington-based Fannie Mae's net worth -- the value of its assets minus the value of its liabilities -- fell to $9.4 billion at the end of September down from $44.1 billion at the end of last year. If that number turns negative, Fannie Mae would be forced to obtain funding from the Treasury Department.

The ultimate bill for taxpayers remains unclear. Jim Vogel, a debt analyst with FTN Financial in Memphis, Tenn., said total aid for Fannie and its sibling company Freddie Mac is unlikely to exceed the $200 billion initially pledged by the government.

Despite worsening housing market conditions, Fannie Mae is "still setting aside way more for future losses than they're absorbing today," Vogel said.

Others aren't so sure. Barclays Capital analyst Rajiv Setia said the government's arrangement with Fannie and Freddie "may need to be amended" next year. Many analysts consider Freddie Mac, which is expected to report earnings later this week, to be in worse financial shape.

. . . .

I heard a comment tonight on the news that Fannie Mae might be out of money and would have to shutdown by the end of the year. I don't know if that's without the government line of credit or not.

 

[Office_Shredder]

It seems like AIG keeps letting the government know they have an extra 10 billion dollar pitfall to be covered, and it's gotten to the point where so much money has been sunk in the hole the government isn't going to let it all go to waste. At this rate they'll have borrowed a trillion dollars themselves before the year ends

 

[Proton Soup]

One huge difference, though. '57 Chevies are pretty low-tech. I can tear down and rebuild a carb with no problem. I cannot tear down and rebuild an entire fuel system in a modern vehicle - injectors, pumps, computers and sensors controlling aspiration, ignition timing, excess oxygen, etc, etc.

yes you can. people do it all the time.

OEM computers might not be reproducible, though - the manufacturers don't even give out the diagnostic codes to independent mechanics. Small businesses (and around here that can mean a shop with 2-10 bays) can scan the diagnostics, but then you have to go to a factory dealership with error codes to get interpretation/service. Been there, done that.

then don't use an OEM computer, use a replacement.

fwiw, there's a huge aftermarket auto industry. almost everything you can replace on an auto can, and is, replaced with high-performance aftermarket parts. you can buy computers with software to adjust parameters for performance vs. economy. bigger fuel pumps, injectors, brakes... whatever you want is available and it isn't rocket science either.

 

[edward]

We are getting a bit off topic here , but high performance aftermarket parts won't pass muster with the EPA.

 

[edward]

AIG just held another big bucks party in Phoenix. This time they tried to do it secretly. They got caught on video by the local ABC affiliate.

http://www.abcnews.go.com/Blotter/WallStreet/story?id=6223972&page=1


They need more accountability, we can't just give them more money because they say they need it. What is it with their situation that is so vital to the world economy??

I have a gut feeling it involves Credit default swaps. They insured a lot of financial institutions against losses, and that includes foreign companies. We can't afford to bail out the whole world.

 

[Proton Soup]

What is it that they have that is so vital to the world economy??

confidence?

 

[edward]

confidence?

Sorry I went back and edited. As for confidence, that is pure BS

 

[Astronuc]

This is a rather interesting review of what happened with Merrill Lynch.

The Reckoning
How the Thundering Herd Faltered and Fell
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/09/business/09magic.html

“We’ve got the right people in place as well as good risk management and controls.” — E. Stanley O’Neal, 2005

THERE were high-fives all around Merrill Lynch headquarters in Lower Manhattan as 2006 drew to a close. The firm’s performance was breathtaking; revenue and earnings had soared, and its shares were up 40 percent for the year.

And Merrill’s decision to invest heavily in the mortgage industry was paying off handsomely. So handsomely, in fact, that on Dec. 30 that year, it essentially doubled down by paying $1.3 billion for First Franklin, a lender specializing in risky mortgages.
. . . .

To make matters worse, Merrill sped up its hunt for mortgage riches by embracing and trafficking in complex and lightly regulated contracts tied to mortgages and other debt. And Merrill’s often inscrutable financial dance was emblematic of the outsize hazards that Wall Street courted.

While questionable mortgages made to risky borrowers prompted the credit crisis, regulators and investors who continue to pick through the wreckage are finding that exotic products known as derivatives — like those that Merrill used — transformed a financial brush fire into a conflagration.

As subprime lenders began toppling after record waves of homeowners defaulted on their mortgages, Merrill was left with $71 billion of eroding mortgage exotica on its books and billions in losses.

On Sept. 15 this year — less than two years after posting a record-breaking performance for 2006 and following a weekend that saw the collapse of a storied investment bank, Lehman Brothers, and a huge federal bailout of the insurance giant American International Group — Merrill was forced into a merger with Bank of America.
. . . .

“The mortgage business at Merrill Lynch was an afterthought — they didn’t really have a strategy,” said William Dallas, the founder of Ownit Mortgage Solutions, a lending business in which Merrill bought a stake a few years ago. “They had found this huge profit potential, and everybody wanted a piece of it. But they were pigs about it.”
. . . .

The fire that Merrill was playing with was an arcane instrument known as a synthetic collateralized debt obligation. The product was an amalgam of collateralized debt obligations (the pools of loans that it bundled for investors) and credit-default swaps (which essentially are insurance that bondholders buy to protect themselves against possible defaults).

Synthetic C.D.O.’s, in other words, are exemplars of a type of modern financial engineering known as derivatives. Essentially, derivatives are financial instruments that can be used to limit risk; their value is “derived” from underlying assets like mortgages, stocks, bonds or commodities. Stock futures, for example, are a common and relatively simple derivative.

Among the more complex derivatives, however, are the mortgage-related variety. They involve a cornucopia of exotic, jumbo-size contracts ultimately linked to real-world loans and debts. So as the housing market went sour, and borrowers defaulted on their mortgages, these contracts collapsed, too, amplifying the meltdown.

The synthetic C.D.O. grew out of a structure that an elite team of J. P. Morgan bankers invented in 1997. Their goal was to reduce the risk that Morgan would lose money when it made loans to top-tier corporate borrowers like I.B.M., General Electric and Procter & Gamble.

Regular C.D.O.’s contain hundreds or thousands of actual loans or bonds. Synthetics, on the other hand, replace those physical bonds with a computer-generated group of credit-default swaps. Synthetics could be slapped together faster, and they generated fatter fees than regular C.D.O.’s, making them especially attractive to Wall Street.

Michael A. J. Farrell is chief executive of Annaly Capital Management, a real estate investment trust that manages mortgage assets. A unit of his company has liquidated billions of dollars in collateralized debt obligations for clients, and he believes that derivatives have magnified the pain of the financial collapse.

“We have auctioned billions in credit-default swap positions in our C.D.O. liquidation business,” Mr. Farrell said, “and what we have learned is that the carnage we are witnessing now would have been much more contained, to use that overworked word, without credit-default swaps.”

. . . .

This had nothing to do with the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) or the democrats in congress. This was all about greed and bad management on Wall Street.

 

[Astronuc]

A Quiet Windfall For U.S. Banks
With Attention on Bailout Debate, Treasury Made Change to Tax Policy
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/content/article/2008/11/09/AR2008110902155.html

The financial world was fixated on Capitol Hill as Congress battled over the Bush administration's request for a $700 billion bailout of the banking industry. In the midst of this late-September drama, the Treasury Department issued a five-sentence notice that attracted almost no public attention.

But corporate tax lawyers quickly realized the enormous implications of the document: Administration officials had just given American banks a windfall of as much as $140 billion.

The sweeping change to two decades of tax policy escaped the notice of lawmakers for several days, as they remained consumed with the controversial bailout bill. When they found out, some legislators were furious. Some congressional staff members have privately concluded that the notice was illegal. But they have worried that saying so publicly could unravel several recent bank mergers made possible by the change and send the economy into an even deeper tailspin.

"Did the Treasury Department have the authority to do this? I think almost every tax expert would agree that the answer is no," said George K. Yin, the former chief of staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation, the nonpartisan congressional authority on taxes. "They basically repealed a 22-year-old law that Congress passed as a backdoor way of providing aid to banks."

The story of the obscure provision underscores what critics in Congress, academia and the legal profession warn are the dangers of the broad authority being exercised by Treasury Secretary Henry M. Paulson Jr. in addressing the financial crisis. Lawmakers are now looking at whether the new notice was introduced to benefit specific banks, as well as whether it inappropriately accelerated bank takeovers.

The change to Section 382 of the tax code -- a provision that limited a kind of tax shelter arising in corporate mergers -- came after a two-decade effort by conservative economists and Republican administration officials to eliminate or overhaul the law, which is so little-known that even influential tax experts sometimes draw a blank at its mention. Until the financial meltdown, its opponents thought it would be nearly impossible to revamp the section because this would look like a corporate giveaway, according to lobbyists.

. . . .

Wow!

Maybe we should start a thread - "What's wrong with Congress" or "What's wrong with the federal government?"

 

[Astronuc]

What's at stake if the automakers fail.


Obama Asks Bush to Provide Help for Automakers
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/11/11/us/politics/11auto.html

If GM, Chrysler and Ford shut down operations,
Center for Automotive Research estimates loss of:

                      Year  2009  2010  2011
Jobs, millions               3.0   2.5   1.8
Personal income, $billions   151   138   109 
Tax receipts, $billions       60    54    42

Mr. Bush indicated at the meeting that he might support some aid and a broader economic stimulus package if Mr. Obama and Congressional Democrats dropped their opposition to a free-trade agreement with Colombia, a measure for which Mr. Bush has long fought, people familiar with the discussion said.

The Bush administration, which has presided over a major intervention in the financial industry, has balked at allowing the automakers to tap into the $700 billion bailout fund, despite warnings last week that General Motors might not survive the year.

Meanwhile - American Express (Amex) is becoming a bank-holding company so that it can qualify for federal money now.
http://marketplace.publicradio.org/display/web/2008/11/11/amex/

Asian markets are down, and European markets are down. The German economy is stagnant, and retail sales in Britain had their biggest drop in three years to the lowest level in 30 years.

http://marketplace.publicradio.org/apheadline_detail.php?story_id=D94CMHOO0&group=ap.online.headlines.business

"The overall market remains strongly focused on the continuing flow of bad news coming from the U.S. economy in particular," said Sebastien Barbe, an analyst at Calyon.

Analysts blamed the latest bout of selling on fears that the economic recession in the U.S. will be deeper than anticipated and could lead to some high-profile casualties. Electronics retailer Circuit City Stores Inc. was the latest company in the U.S. to report mounting difficulties as it filed for bankruptcy protection.

 

[Astronuc]

Merrill CEO says economic environment recalls 1929
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AA48520081111
By Elinor Comlay and Jonathan Stempel

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Merrill Lynch & Co (MER.N) Chief Executive John Thain said the global economy is in a deep slowdown and will not recover quickly, and the environment recalls 1929, the advent of the Great Depression.

Speaking Tuesday at his bank's annual financial services conference, Thain said he was "cautiously optimistic" about the outlook for the industry. But he said credit remains constricted and asset prices generally are still falling.

"The U.S. economy is contracting very rapidly," creating uncertainty "at least over the next few quarters," Thain said. "We are going to be in a very difficult economic environment for a significant period of time."

Conditions deteriorated as the U.S. housing market collapse mushroomed into a more general crisis of confidence.

. . . .

This is rather worrisome - a good indication of the severity of trouble in the financial markets and the US and global economies.

Goldman CEO speaks as firm's future in doubt
http://www.reuters.com/article/ousiv/idUSTRE4AA4WA20081111
By Joseph A. Giannone - Analysis

NEW YORK (Reuters) - For most of the past century, Goldman Sachs was top of the heap among Wall Street's investment banking firms, but its prospects as a heavily regulated bank are not so bright.

After months of fretting about capital and liquidity levels at banks, the market has turned its focus from Goldman's survival prospects to its earnings potential. Investors clearly do not like what they see.

"The days of getting 35 percent (returns) on equity are over -- much of that was achieved with leverage," Mendon Capital President and Chief Investment Officer Anton Schutz told Reuters on Monday.

Brokers and banks, he said, must change their ways. "There is no doubt their balance sheets are seen as weaker. They're trying to get leverage ratios down," Schutz said.

Investors may get some answers when Goldman Chief Executive Lloyd Blankfein speaks at a Merrill Lynch investor conference after the closing bell on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc shares on Monday fell to their lowest levels since 2003 as a growing chorus of analysts forecast plunging markets will produce a fourth-quarter loss -- the firm's first quarterly loss since it went public in 1999.

The stock has plunged 71 percent since reaching a record high last October and is down nearly two-thirds since the end of July. It stood at $72.04 in Tuesday morning trade.

. . .

Just remember, there will be an end to this tunnel - eventually.