What will happen in the 2006 mid-term elections?

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Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around predictions for the 2006 mid-term elections in the United States, focusing on potential outcomes for the House of Representatives and the Senate. Participants explore various factors that may influence the elections, including individual candidate dynamics, party strategies, and broader political trends.

Discussion Character

  • Debate/contested
  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation

Main Points Raised

  • Some participants predict modest gains for Democrats due to localized campaigning and vulnerabilities among Republican incumbents.
  • Others suggest that the manipulation of House district borders complicates seat gains for Democrats, estimating a potential pickup of 5 to 10 seats.
  • One participant notes that for Democrats to achieve a Senate majority, they would need to gain 7 seats, while acknowledging that the Independent may lean Democratic.
  • Concerns are raised about specific Republican Senators, such as Santorum and Frist, potentially losing their seats due to various factors, including retirement and local sentiment.
  • Some participants express uncertainty about the impact of external events, such as indictments or significant political developments, on election outcomes.
  • There is speculation about the influence of the Abramoff scandal on Republican candidates and the potential for Democrats to capitalize on it.
  • Discussion includes the role of evangelical voters and their expectations from Republican leadership ahead of the elections.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express a range of predictions and opinions, with no clear consensus on specific outcomes. Multiple competing views on the potential gains for both parties remain evident throughout the discussion.

Contextual Notes

Some predictions depend on the assumption that no major unforeseen events will occur before the elections, which could significantly alter the political landscape.

Who May Find This Useful

Individuals interested in political forecasting, electoral dynamics, and the impact of local issues on national elections may find this discussion relevant.

What results will the 2006 mid-term elections yield?


  • Total voters
    47
  • #181
Hmmm...no one had the correct answer on the swing in the House! Tut, tut!
 
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  • #182
I was being conservative :biggrin: in my estimate. :smile:
 
  • #183
Astronuc said:
I was being conservative :biggrin: in my estimate. :smile:
I got the Senate right, but was conservative about the House because House districts have been gerrymandered in many states, making them safer for incumbents. Of course, when I voted on the poll, Foleygate hadn't occurred - the Republican leadership's head-in-the sand approach when confronted with that slimeball's activities probably played a role in the solid Dem gains in the House.
 
  • #184
Housewise, I might have gone with 10-20, and for the Senate 2-5.

Certainly Foley had an effect, but I really think Iraq is frustrating people, and rightly so. The administration has painted a rosy picture of success and everyone can see that it is not. I wonder of Woodward's book had an influence.

Another interesting race is in Connecticut District 02. Simmons (R) is the incumbent seems to have lost to Courtney (D) by 170 votes - Simmons (121,151) vs Courtney (121,321). I've heard Simmons and he seems pretty moderate.
 

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