What will happen in the 2006 mid-term elections?

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SUMMARY

The forum discussion centers on predictions for the 2006 mid-term elections, focusing on potential seat changes in the House of Representatives and the Senate. Participants predict modest gains for the Democratic Party, estimating a net gain of 5 to 10 seats in the House and 3 to 5 seats in the Senate, influenced by local Republican vulnerabilities and the fallout from the Bush administration. Key figures mentioned include Harold Ford (D-TN) and Rick Santorum (R-PA), with discussions on the impact of evangelical voters on Republican strategies.

PREREQUISITES
  • Understanding of U.S. electoral systems, particularly the House of Representatives and Senate dynamics.
  • Familiarity with the political landscape of the 2006 mid-term elections.
  • Knowledge of key political figures and their electoral histories, such as Harold Ford and Rick Santorum.
  • Awareness of the influence of evangelical voters on political outcomes and strategies.
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  • Research the impact of local issues on congressional elections in the U.S.
  • Analyze the role of evangelical voters in shaping Republican party strategies.
  • Examine historical trends in mid-term election outcomes and their implications for party control.
  • Investigate the effects of political scandals, such as the Abramoff scandal, on election results.
USEFUL FOR

Political analysts, campaign strategists, and anyone interested in understanding the dynamics of U.S. mid-term elections and the factors influencing voter behavior.

What results will the 2006 mid-term elections yield?

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    47
  • #181
Hmmm...no one had the correct answer on the swing in the House! Tut, tut!
 
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  • #182
I was being conservative :biggrin: in my estimate. :smile:
 
  • #183
Astronuc said:
I was being conservative :biggrin: in my estimate. :smile:
I got the Senate right, but was conservative about the House because House districts have been gerrymandered in many states, making them safer for incumbents. Of course, when I voted on the poll, Foleygate hadn't occurred - the Republican leadership's head-in-the sand approach when confronted with that slimeball's activities probably played a role in the solid Dem gains in the House.
 
  • #184
Housewise, I might have gone with 10-20, and for the Senate 2-5.

Certainly Foley had an effect, but I really think Iraq is frustrating people, and rightly so. The administration has painted a rosy picture of success and everyone can see that it is not. I wonder of Woodward's book had an influence.

Another interesting race is in Connecticut District 02. Simmons (R) is the incumbent seems to have lost to Courtney (D) by 170 votes - Simmons (121,151) vs Courtney (121,321). I've heard Simmons and he seems pretty moderate.
 

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