News Who Will Win the 2008 US Presidential Election?

[lisab]

Not only that, Pat Buchanan got WAY more than enough unexpected votes in liberal counties in Florida to turn the election to the Dems (due to confusion over the butterfly ballot). To Buchanan's credit, he pointed this out during the appeal and the aborted recount.

Yes, I was impressed at Buchanan's frankness on what he saw as his unearned votes.

He's another righty I don't see eye-to-eye with on many matters, but I do enjoy hearing his point of view. He doesn't heap derision or contempt on people who disagree with him.

 

[BobG]

Not only that, Pat Buchanan got WAY more than enough unexpected votes in liberal counties in Florida to turn the election to the Dems (due to confusion over the butterfly ballot). To Buchanan's credit, he pointed this out during the appeal and the aborted recount.

Actually, just one - Palm Beach County. Buchanon got 0.29% of the vote through the entire state. In one of the most liberal counties, he got 0.79%. You'd expect him to get 1200 or less votes in Palm Beach County (400 to 500 would be realistic given that Palm Beach was pretty liberal). Instead, he got 3400.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Image:Voterseyeview.jpg Worse yet, I wonder how many Buchanon voters mistakenly voted for Bush? If 1% of Gore voters in Palm Beach voted for Buchanon (about 3,000 out of 270,000), then surely 4 or 5 voters mistakenly voted for Bush instead of Buchanon.

He's another righty I don't see eye-to-eye with on many matters, but I do enjoy hearing his point of view. He doesn't heap derision or contempt on people who disagree with him.

Proof you don't need to agree with someone to find it entertaining to listen to them. He takes some outrageous points of view sometimes, which makes me wonder if he's just playing devil's advocate, but he usually has some thought behind what he says no matter how outrageous the idea seems.

 

[Poop-Loops]

Bush voters? They can read?

 

[Astronuc]

TN
 Bush  1,056,480 51% 11EV 
 Gore    977,789 48% 0
 Nader    19,694  1% 0
 Buchanan  4,218  0% 0 

MO
 Bush  1,189,521 51% 11EV
 Gore  1,110,826 47% 0 
 Nader    38,488  2% 0 

AR
   Bush  472,120 51% 6EV  Clinton? 
   Gore  420,424 45% 0 

OH
 Bush  2,294,167 50% 21EV
 Gore  2,117,741 46% 0 
 Nader   114,482 3%  0 
 Buchanan 25,980 1%  0
 
FL
 Bush  2,909,176 49 % 25EV 
 Gore  2,907,451 49 %  0 
 Nader    96,837  2 %  0 
 Browne   18,856  0 %  0 
 Buchanan 17,356  0 %  0

Just a sample of states - Ref: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/

Bush had won in 29 states, Gore 20 states.

The FL debacle/fiasco was not the fault of Nader or Buchanan.

Gore lost in TN, his home state. 11 EV! Gore didn't even get Arkansas, Clinton's home state, but then a lot of folks were probably upset with Clinton over Lewinski and Whitewater.

Both Gore and Kerry failed to make compelling cases why those in the middle should vote for them. It completely slipped past Gore during the Wakeforest debate in 2000 that Bush mentioned the consideration of using US troops to oust a dictator.

BUSH: Started off as a humanitarian mission and it changed into a nation-building mission, and that's where the mission went wrong. The mission was changed. And as a result, our nation paid a price. And so I don't think our troops ought to be used for what's called nation-building. I think our troops ought to be used to fight and win war. I think our troops ought to be used to help overthrow the dictator when it's in our best interests. But in this case it was a nation-building exercise, and same with Haiti. I wouldn't have supported either.

http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2000b.html

Bush's statement "I think our troops ought to be used to help overthrow the dictator when it's in our best interests," was prescient to say the least. It certainly appears he had one dictator in mind, as is consistent with the mention by Paul O'Neill that Iraq was the first item on the agenda during the first cabinet meeting in 2001. Gore should have jumped in and asked "What dictator do you have in mind?"

In Kerry's case, he blew off a number of red states, basically by-passing much of the middle of the country. That's not very presidential.

 

[chemisttree]

TN
 Bush  1,056,480 51% 11EV 
 Gore    977,789 48% 0
 Nader    19,694  1% 0
 Buchanan  4,218  0% 0 

MO
 Bush  1,189,521 51% 11EV
 Gore  1,110,826 47% 0 
 Nader    38,488  2% 0 

AR
   Bush  472,120 51% 6EV  Clinton? 
   Gore  420,424 45% 0 

OH
 Bush  2,294,167 50% 21EV
 Gore  2,117,741 46% 0 
 Nader   114,482 3%  0 
 Buchanan 25,980 1%  0
 
FL
 Bush  2,909,176 49 % 25EV 
 Gore  2,907,451 49 %  0 
 Nader    96,837  2 %  0 
 Browne   18,856  0 %  0 
 Buchanan 17,356  0 %  0

Just a sample of states - Ref: http://www.cnn.com/ELECTION/2000/results/

Bush had won in 29 states, Gore 20 states.

The FL debacle/fiasco was not the fault of Nader or Buchanan.

Gore lost in TN, his home state. 11 EV! Gore didn't even get Arkansas, Clinton's home state, but then a lot of folks were probably upset with Clinton over Lewinski and Whitewater.

Both Gore and Kerry failed to make compelling cases why those in the middle should vote for them. It completely slipped past Gore during the Wakeforest debate in 2000 that Bush mentioned the consideration of using US troops to oust a dictator.


http://www.debates.org/pages/trans2000b.html

Bush's statement "I think our troops ought to be used to help overthrow the dictator when it's in our best interests," was prescient to say the least. It certainly appears he had one dictator in mind, as is consistent with the mention by Paul O'Neill that Iraq was the first item on the agenda during the first cabinet meeting in 2001. Gore should have jumped in and asked "What dictator do you have in mind?"

In Kerry's case, he blew off a number of red states, basically by-passing much of the middle of the country. That's not very presidential.

Hurrah! Finally I see some real analysis. Last night the Spurs lost a close one to the Lakers. San Antonio was behind by two points with only seconds to go and the ball was in the hands of San Antonio's best three point shooter. His desperate last minute shot missed but there was contact on the shot that, in any other game, would have resulted in a foul and a chance to tie the game and go into overtime. The foul was not called... it never is in that situation. So, did San Antonio lose the game because some partisian official didn't call a foul? Hardly! San Antonio lost because they were behind all game and struggling (on their home court!) and were forced to take a shot that has less than a 50% chance of being made. Still, there are some that think that the official was responsible for the loss.

There are a lot of reasons that Gore lost the election. Some of those reasons are listed in Astronuc's post but there are others. I'll add one that I feel was more important. America was pretty tired of partisian bickering in 2000. Bush had a real track record of working with both parties in Texas and his promised education bill probably pulled out his win in California. That kind of position is one usually reserved for Democrats but Bush claimed it as his own. Sure, Gore came out with his own 'rebuild crumbling schools' rhetoric but America remembered that he was in the office of Vice President for the previous 8 years and only now realized that there were problems. His own campaign was at odds with the "Education President" and the administration he served under.

One could easily argue that Clinton's DNA stains had much more of an effect than Ralph Nader.

 

[G01]

OK This is going back to the whole possible vice president topic. If anyone watches Hardball at all, you'll know where this is coming from. What if Obama picked Ed Rendell, the govenor of PA, as his VP. Rendell is popular among dems in PA. There is no doubt in my mind Obama would then get PA by a landslide.(PA'ers will vote for the hometown VP)

What do you guys think? Along the same lines, what about the Ohio Govenor, Ted Strickland?

 

[chemisttree]

What if Obama picked Ed Rendell, the govenor of PA, as his VP. Rendell is popular among dems in PA. There is no doubt in my mind Obama would then get PA by a landslide.(PA'ers will vote for the hometown VP)

That would be a good move on Obama's part. I see Rendell often on Fox supporting Obama. He comes across as pretty main stream. Do they still call him "Crazy Eddie" in PA?

 

[turbo]

Obama will take PA anyway, without Rendell as VP, and with a winner-take all election, he doesn't need a landslide there. I would prefer that he choose Bill Richardson. Richardson is a popular governor who has proven that he can work across party lines, and he is a seasoned diplomat with real foreign policy credentials. I realize that he didn't land in Bosnia under sniper fire, but I think that his experience negotiating the release of captured servicemen, political prisoners, etc with some of the countries that Bush won't even speak to is quite refreshing. It won't hurt Obama with the Hispanic bloc, either. Since energy concerns are going to be with us for some time, having a former Secretary of Energy on the ticket would look awfully good.

 

[G01]

That would be a good move on Obama's part. I see Rendell often on Fox supporting Obama. He comes across as pretty main stream. Do they still call him "Crazy Eddie" in PA?

Rendell previously endorsed Clinton, but I can't see that making him turn down a VP offer from Obama!

Havn't heard crazy Eddy in a while, but he's still a little crazy as far as I can tell!:biggrin;

 

[G01]

Obama will take PA anyway, without Rendell as VP, and with a winner-take all election, he doesn't need a landslide there. I would prefer that he choose Bill Richardson. Richardson is a popular governor who has proven that he can work across party lines, and he is a seasoned diplomat with real foreign policy credentials. I realize that he didn't land in Bosnia under sniper fire, but I think that his experience negotiating the release of captured servicemen, political prisoners, etc with some of the countries that Bush won't even speak to is quite refreshing. It won't hurt Obama with the Hispanic bloc, either. Since energy concerns are going to be with us for some time, having a former Secretary of Energy on the ticket would look awfully good.

Yes, Richardson would be a grest choice as well.


Do you think he would help Obama significantly with Hispanics?

 

[Gokul43201]

Rendell previously endorsed Clinton

He's much more than that. He's been one of the most visible pushers of the Clinton marathon of misinformation. At the same time, he also insists very strongly that if Obama were to somehow win the nomination, he (Rendell) would doubtless campaign his heart out in PA.

I'd love to see Kathleen Sebelius as the Veep. In addition to the intrinsic strengths she brings to the ticket, she will also bring in a lot of support from the Hillary demographic.

 

[chemisttree]

Rendell previously endorsed Clinton, but I can't see that making him turn down a VP offer from Obama!
Havn't heard crazy Eddy in a while, but he's still a little crazy as far as I can tell!:biggrin;

Any idea why they call him Crazy Eddie? It can't be because he'll support Obama, can it?

What! He supports Clinton? Oh, that explains it...

http://www.dailykos.com/story/2008/5/27/4440/20769/348/523425" Is Douchebag a small town in PA?

 

[Astronuc]

Janet Napolitano addressed the Commonwealth Club on April 24, 2008. She is very is accomplished, and from what little I heard, she presented a thoughtful commentary on the immigration and illegal alien issue.

Real Audio required.
http://www.commonwealthclub.org/audio/20080424napolitano-complete.ram
I'm not sure how long the link will be valid.

 

[Gokul43201]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=59d53a82-4258-4988-be6a-3e0e67ecf4df

Some really surprising findings there. Looks like the real winning ticket for the Dems is Obama+Edwards. But look at what happens if Kathleen Sebelius is on the ticket: nearly a quarter of the women that would have voted for him (independent of who the VP choice was) are now unsure! And apparently Rendell (thankfully) and Hagel (sadly) are not good choices either.

 

[BobG]

http://www.surveyusa.com/client/PollReport.aspx?g=59d53a82-4258-4988-be6a-3e0e67ecf4df

Some really surprising findings there. Looks like the real winning ticket for the Dems is Obama+Edwards. But look at what happens if Kathleen Sebelius is on the ticket: nearly a quarter of the women that would have voted for him (independent of who the VP choice was) are now unsure! And apparently Rendell (thankfully) and Hagel (sadly) are not good choices either.

Pawlenty doesn't look like a good choice for Republicans either.

The ones getting the best results are the most well known: Huckabee, Romney, and Edwards. There's certainly an early advantage to picking a well known politician as your running mate. The other side of the coin is choosing a VP that the party would like to see become well known and doesn't come with any preconceived negatives. Pawlenty, Sebelius, and Hagel would be a lot more likely to increase in popularity than Romney or Edwards.

 

[Astronuc]

Obama resigns from Trinity Church

As someone (Art) here at PF predicted, Obama has resigned from Trinity Church.

Obama resigns from controversial church

CNN) -- Sen. Barack Obama's campaign confirmed Saturday that he has resigned from the Chicago church where controversial sermons by his former pastor and other ministers created repeated political headaches for the Democratic frontrunner.

The resignation comes days after the Rev. Michael Pfleger, a visiting Catholic priest, mocked Obama's Democratic rival, Sen. Hillary Clinton, for crying during the runup to the New Hampshire primary.

Previously, the Rev. Jeremiah Wright, former pastor at Trinity United Church of Christ and Obama's minister for about 20 years, drew unwanted attention for the campaign when videos of his fiery sermons surfaced.

 

[Gokul43201]

Obama's Father's Day speech:

I'd really like to get some opinions on this speech by some of the folks who believe Obama is too militant or racially divisive or too influenced by Wright.

PS: Posts that are not directly relevant to the actual electoral math of the General Election belong in this thread (not the similarly titled thread started by Evo).

 

[tsooozavel]

Right now, they are just starting to set the tone of their campaign. This early, i really can't tell which i would side with, but i am leaning towards obama. Furthermore, the GOP base is not even warming up to mccain (of course, i could be wrong) and even though it's still early in the game, this just proves to show how we see our candidates to-date. i know i will get burned for this, but i think mccain is a warmonger. i get the impression that he doesn't care to what happens to our troops in the middle east and the other parts of the world. Can’t we just all get along? i think it is time for a purification; i think it is time for a change; i think it is time for obama time. Now that the candidates are set for the US Presidential Election, Barack Obama and John McCain are beginning to set the tone for their campaign. Looking at their most recent speeches in http://pollclash.com , what do you think about what you hear?

 

[Astronuc]

Obama, McCain Agree: They Disagree on Economy
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91358156
by Scott Horsley

Morning Edition, June 11, 2008 · There's at least one thing Sens. Barack Obama and John McCain agree on.

"When it comes to the economy, John McCain and I have a fundamentally different vision of where to take the country," Obama told a crowd Monday in North Carolina.

McCain echoed that sentiment the next day in a speech to small-business owners in Washington, D.C. "On tax policy, health care reform, trade, government spending, a long list of other issues, we offer very different choices to the American people," McCain said.

The two presidential candidates are spelling out those economic choices this week.

At his North Carolina speech, Obama was introduced by a lifelong Republican who now finds herself looking for a change.

"We were lower middle-class," said Pamella Cash-Roper, a 54-year-old nurse. "Now we're not even lower middle-class, I'm as low as it can get. When the price of milk and the price of gas are almost the same, we need to start looking at something."

Obama wants to reverse President Bush's income tax cuts for the wealthiest Americans, while giving a tax credit of up to $500 for low- and middle-income workers. The senator has proposed spending tens of billions of dollars on new roads, bridges and alternative energy projects. And perhaps his most ambitious initiative would help subsidize health care so nearly all Americans could afford it.

"We have tried it their way for eight long years. And it has failed. It is time to try something new," the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said Monday.

"For eight long years, our president sacrificed investment in health care, in education, in energy and infrastructure on the altar of tax breaks for big corporations and wealthy CEOs — trillions of dollars in giveaways that proved neither compassionate nor conservative," Obama said.
. . . .

Here are the key economic advisors:

McCain: He is advised by a team of business people and academics, including Douglas Holtz-Eakin, an unpaid adviser and the former head of the Congressional Budget Office; Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of Hewlett Packard; Phil Gramm, a former Texas senator and economics professor at Texas A&M University; and Meg Whitman, the campaign finance co-chair and former CEO of eBay.

Obama: His chief economic adviser is Austan Goolsbee, a University of Chicago economist. Jason Furman is his economic policy director. Furman worked for former Democratic presidential candidate and Mass. Sen. John Kerry and also previously headed the "Hamilton Project" at the Brookings Institute, founded by Robert Rubin, the former Secretary of the Treasury.

On a personal side -

Echoes of Their Fathers: Obama and McCain
http://www.npr.org/templates/story/story.php?storyId=91531137
by Robert Smith

Weekend Edition Sunday, June 15, 2008 · Adm. John McCain and Barack Obama — the fathers, not their sons running for the Oval Office — have been dead for decades. But each gave his own name to his son, along with the drive to become the next president.

Both Democratic Sen. Barack Obama and Republican Sen. John McCain reference their fathers in the titles of their autobiographical books. And when the two talk about their fathers, you can hear the sense that each is finishing a journey that someone else began.

"I am the son and grandson of admirals," McCain has said. "My grandfather was an aviator; my father a submariner. They were my first heroes."

"I am the son of a black man," Obama has said. "My grandfather was a cook to the British in Kenya. ... His son, who grew up herding goats in a small village in Africa, could suddenly set his sights a little higher and suddenly believe that maybe a black man in this world had a chance."

Both Barack Obama and John McCain went to their fathers' schools: Obama to Harvard, and McCain to the Naval Academy.
. . . .

 

[Ivan Seeking]

WASHINGTON - Carly Fiorina is quickly becoming the new face of John McCain's campaign.

Once considered the most powerful businesswoman in the United States, Fiorina has evolved from the Republican presidential candidate's top economic adviser to a catch-all advocate and attack dog on a range of subjects from women's issues to the Iraq war.

It's a far cry from the corporate boardroom but the former Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) chief executive appears to be in her element and the Arizona senator clearly likes it that way.[continued]

http://www.informationweek.com/news/management/interviews/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=208700518

Integral is going to love this one!

 

[Integral]

http://www.informationweek.com/news/management/interviews/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=208700518

Integral is going to love this one!

I think it's great! Now all of the Bushmen back in the Kalahari are going to be fuming! I have already tried to explain to them how their voting record is proof of their inability to choose a president. I have advised them to vote Obama. This will make my arguments even stronger. A republican vote is a vote for Carly!

 

[Astronuc]

The other addiction
What Obama and McCain don't tell you about deficits
by Darrell Delamaide

WASHINGTON (MarketWatch) -- The two presidential candidates spend a lot of time chastising us for our "addiction to oil," warning that our dependence on foreign oil threatens our energy security.

They are going to put us on the path to "energy independence" -- Barack Obama with alternative energies and John McCain with offshore drilling.

But there's another addiction that both candidates so far have ignored -- one that also poses a serious threat to our national security. In fact, the two presumptive nominees have not only failed to address the issue, they have flaunted their disdain for it.

The United States under the Bush administration has developed an addiction to foreign credit. The federal government's willingness to run up massive budget deficits -- an estimated $400 billion to $500 billion this year alone -- and to let China and other foreign countries finance those deficits have contributed to the deflation of the dollar and put this country at the mercy of these foreign governments.

The two presumptive nominees have not only failed to address the deficit issue, they have flaunted their disdain for it.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

I could never stand Bob Barr, and I am sure that we disagree on many points, but today, hell has frozen over and pigs are flying: I find myself in stark agreement with his stated philosophy. He claims to be a true Libertarian convert.
http://abcnews.go.com/Video/playerIndex?id=5316945

 

[Gokul43201]

Barr has changed a lot, since the late 90s - especially after noticing the incredible following that Ron Paul generated.

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Yes, I would never trust him. But a shift like this is consistent with the thinking of a true conservative, which Barr once fancied himself to be.

I esp liked his objection to the wire-tapping laws. When someone hits precisely the core issues that concern me, he gets my attention. I could believe that he is sincere.

 

[Gokul43201]

http://www.informationweek.com/news/management/interviews/showArticle.jhtml?articleID=208700518

Integral is going to love this one!

From that article:

"All aspects of a CEO's compensation and severance should be transparent and a company should be accountable to its shareholders," she said.

"Obama might say let's have the government regulate CEO pay. That would not be John McCain's approach but John McCain isn't afraid to say some CEOs have been paid excessively."

What a load of crap!

For the record, Ms. Fiorina:

WASHINGTON, DC -- U.S. Senator Barack Obama (D-IL) today sent a letter to the Chairman and Ranking Member of the Senate Banking Committee to request that they hold a hearing on the Shareholder Vote on Executive Compensation Act, a bill he sponsored that would give shareholders an advisory vote on executive compensation and spur both increased transparency and public debate over pay packages. The legislation passed the House by a wide margin in April.

http://obama.senate.gov/press/070530-obama_calls_for_5/
http://thomas.loc.gov/cgi-bin/bdquery/z?d110:s.01181:

To my knowledge, after searching the Library of Congress website, I see no evidence that McCain, has introduced, co-sponsored or voted on any bill relating to CEO compensation.

 

[lisab]

I got something in the mail yesterday that I just can not believe. It's a request for money for McCain's campaign...no surprise there; but since I've sent Obama money and was one of his delegates, I hope they didn't pay too much for a mailing list that listed me as a possible McCain supporter .

But what caught my eye: both on the envelope and across the top of the enclosed letter, in large, all-caps, bold letters:

EMERGENCY TELEGRAM

What percentage of people alive today has ever received a telegram?!? Do telegrams even exist anymore? Strikes me as pretty funny, coming from a candidate with an "age issue"!

 

[Ivan Seeking]

Strikes me as pretty funny, coming from a candidate with an "age issue"!

Did it include a supporting statement from Gretta Garbo?

 

[turbo]

Are all of McCain's campaign advisers geriatric, too? Telegram, indeed.

 

[Gokul43201]

The TELEGRAM was fabulous! I guess that tells us who their target audience is.

Yes, I would never trust him. But a shift like this is consistent with the thinking of a true conservative, which Barr once fancied himself to be.

I'm not saying I don't trust him. I actually do believe he has changed a good bit. But I also think he's been borrowing some ideas from the Ron Paul primary to help shape his message.

Still, he is currently drawing only about half the votes Nationally that Nader is. But I don't think that really matters. I think his most noticeable electoral effect will be in GA, where according to the most recent poll, Obama was 5 points behind McCain. He may also play a role in MT, which has a strong tendency to go for the independents (and in '92, was 50% more into Perot than the rest of the country).