Why colonize Mars and not the Moon?

[russ_watters]

We've covered this earlier in the thread. My definition is that people raise families, and there are enough people to create a viable self-sustaining community. It would need to have enough advantages and comfort that most people chose not to go back to Earth.

Obvious follow-up: what advantages could a Moon or Mars colony offer that would lead people to make that choice?

 

[gleem]

Obvious follow-up: what advantages could a Moon or Mars colony offer that would lead people to make that choice?

One choice is isolation/privacy/protection. Some futurist suggest as wealth is accumulated by a few the current propensity for wealthy people or people of means to build walls around their properties, or live in gated secured communities will increase and become more extreme. What better place than the Moon or Mars. Even better than the proposed luxury bunker Vivos in Germany. Of course unless the rabble acquire rockets.

 

[russ_watters]

One choice is isolation/privacy/protection. Some futurist suggest as wealth is accumulated by a few the current propensity for wealthy people or people of means to build walls around their properties, or live in gated secured communities will increase and become more extreme. What better place than the Moon or Mars. Even better than the proposed luxury bunker Vivos in Germany. Of course unless the rabble acquire rockets.

I'll buy that, but I don't think an exceedingly wealthy hermit (or 50) living in isolation except for periodic resupply missions counts as a "colony". It would also need to be funded by said exceedingly wealthy hermits.

 

[rootone]

Is there a Mars hotel?, I will buy that for a night, just a cheap room, don't need a microwave or anything.

 

[Rive]

One choice is isolation/privacy/protection.

Well, there is a fine difference between the 'I don't want to come out' and the 'I can't come out'.
However, it might be a problem that one such 'colony' will be neither. It'll be some combination of 'I can't come out' and the 'yet I have to work all day'.
Also, it's cheaper to buy an island. With no population and fine weather all year around. The saving will even cover the daily post& menu delivered by plane and parachute.

 

[GTOM]

Obvious follow-up: what advantages could a Moon or Mars colony offer that would lead people to make that choice?

Probably getting to another planet (i prefer Mars) can give someone very high wages, good opportunities.
After accustomed to low gravity, its hard to return to Earth.

 

[Al_]

Earth accumulated much more simply because it has larger mass.

It's intercept cross-section is 127800000 square km. The Moon is 9490000. 13.4 times smaller.
So, for objects traveling so fast as to be largely undeflected, Earth would intercept 13.4 times more, but spread over 13.4 times the area (area facing the incoming objects, that is) would lead to the same initial concentration on the surface.
The gravity comes into it more if the objects are moving slowly.

We don't have any evidence for significant accumulations of specific interesting elements

You run across a golf course, you see no balls, and so you have no evidence that there are any there.
OK, fine. I can't argue with you.
I just hope someone sends a probe to the Moon soon, and settles this question.

 

[mfb]

So, for objects traveling so fast as to be largely undeflected, Earth would intercept 13.4 times more, but spread over 13.4 times the area (area facing the incoming objects, that is) would lead to the same initial concentration on the surface.

And the difference to the actual ratio comes from gravity. That's what I said.

I just hope someone sends a probe to the Moon soon, and settles this question.

List of probes sent to Moon.

If you carefully search a golf course and find no balls, you can conclude that golf balls have to be very rare there. I did not consider the deliberate introduction by humans as no one would launch a block of valuable metals to Moon to mine it there.

There are exactly two golf balls on the Moon, by the way. Both close to the Apollo 14 landing site.

 

[Al_]

List of probes sent to Moon.

Most of them crashed. All except two of the others stayed where they landed.
Which one did a "careful search"?

 

[Al_]

Obvious follow-up: what advantages could a Moon or Mars colony offer that would lead people to make that choice?

I think people would see opportunities on the Moon (or Mars) for exploration or claim-staking.
There might be challenges that are hard to resist.
Perhaps they would realize ways to use the resources and experiment with innovations in ways that are not possible on Earth. To make a name for themsleves as an explorer, or gain scientific recognition.
If they hadn't made a fortune yet, and were hoping to do so. Or had made one, and could see a way to make another.
It might just suit a person, in some undefinable way. They might simply enjoy the low gravity, perhaps for health reasons or sport.
There might be things about Earth that deterred them from returning, like war, famine, or epidemic. Or overcrowding, pollution, or debt.

 

[mfb]

Most of them crashed. All except two of the others stayed where they landed.
Which one did a "careful search"?

Most of them were not designed for surface operations and were crashed deliberately, but we are at 20+ landed probes.
The Apollo landers didn't move, but the astronauts, the moon rovers and their science packages moved. Astronauts are much better than rovers moving around. They also brought back samples, together with the Soviet sample return missions.

 

[Ken Fabos]

I think people would see opportunities on the Moon (or Mars) for exploration or claim-staking.
There might be challenges that are hard to resist.
Perhaps they would realize ways to use the resources and experiment with innovations in ways that are not possible on Earth. To make a name for themsleves as an explorer, or gain scientific recognition.
If they hadn't made a fortune yet, and were hoping to do so. Or had made one, and could see a way to make another.
It might just suit a person, in some undefinable way. They might simply enjoy the low gravity, perhaps for health reasons or sport.
There might be things about Earth that deterred them from returning, like war, famine, or epidemic. Or overcrowding, pollution, or debt.

Like other optimistic scenarios - overly optimistic imo - these seem to require and assume relatively low up front costs for individuals to become colonists, as well as assume a relative abundance of exploitable opportunities just waiting for an intrepid explorer to discover and lay claim. ie this is space fantasy - or perhaps the old gold prospector fantasy given a sci-fi makeover. I just can't see it as being real. If there are economically exploitable resources those will need to be known first, with high confidence because those are the essential ingredients to drive the huge pre-investments such an enterprise requires. None of the other motivations I've seen here are going to do - it's either financially viable or it doesn't happen. I haven't seen convincing evidence of economically exploitable resources

If the exploitable resources are proven then big companies/consortiums with big money would need to push a proposal through and that will only happen when they are confident of good returns on investment and given the scale of investment, confident of low risk of failure. That seems an unlikely scenario for encouraging stake-claiming by their employees and contractors or by independent operators - almost certainly the corporate stakeholders will have already staked their wide ranging claims as a precondition for going ahead. Whilst there will be relatively abundant resources of various sorts to be found none have emerged so far as economically viable to exploit. It seems to be the nature of these hypothetical space enterprises that they will not work as shoestring operations - there's a big minimum threshold for success, an all or nothing element here. Opportunities to be involved will probably be as employees and contractors, not "free" colonists.

We can hypothesise the technologies and other motivations but it looks to me like a profit or perish scenario.

 

[Rive]

... huge pre-investments ...

Yes.

It's hard to make up good numbers, but given the required technological level to survive on Mars or Moon a more or less self-sustaining industry would require a population of 50-100 000 people as bare minimum. (With an excellent education system which produces mostly highly educated people and only a negligible amount of delinquents.)
Also, it would require an insane amount of machinery.

We are just hundred years early to even dream about something like that. Right now, there is just one thing what has value high enough in space: knowledge.
But that won't feed a colony. The price for knowledge traditionally would make up for some expeditions only.

 

[Al_]

Most of them were not designed for surface operations and were crashed deliberately, but we are at 20+ landed probes.
The Apollo landers didn't move, but the astronauts, the moon rovers and their science packages moved. Astronauts are much better than rovers moving around. They also brought back samples, together with the Soviet sample return missions.

But the samples were from point spots. The Apollo science packages were placed in static locations. The Moon buggies didn't do prospecting as they went along. The astronauts just eyeballed the ground surface, and did a little field geology!
If there is more of a sweep-the-ground-in-depth approach, a real prospecting effort, the odds are we would find a great deal more.
What is needed is a rover with modern instruments that can detect as it moves. For example, spectroscopic analysis, neutron instrument, digger, drill, chemistry lab, even a simple old fashioned metal detector. The ability to go to the poles, in very cold and dark places.
Maybe even a rover that can go into caves and chasms.

 

[Al_]

If there are economically exploitable resources those will need to be known first

Yes, there is a need for much wider prospecting than has been done to date.

encouraging stake-claiming by their employees and contractors or by independent operators

Elon Musk is planning to offer a $200,000 ticket to Mars. Can we assume the Lunar ticket will be much less?
Once there are facilities there, even if owned by corporations or govmts, it is possible they can be used by independents.

only a negligible amount of delinquents

From the Moon, you can send back to Earth the people who can't/won't hack it.

it would require an insane amount of machinery

Not that much more than we already have in the richer parts of the world. Bottled water, piped gas, greenhouse food, a car per person, a new pair of shoes every week...

the nature of these hypothetical space enterprises that they will not work as shoestring operations - there's a big minimum threshold for success

How big? Earlier in this thread we were discussing a remote-controlled two-rover, two-rocket gold prospecting idea that (I think) might be profitable.

 

[clif stevens]

Given the choice between such a colony on Earth and a life on Mars, I know which one I would choose. Also, what could be achieved on Earth in, say, 10 years with $10 billion dollars would take centuries and an unimaginable budget for Mars. The secure Earth settlements could be built before we even had a viable shuttle to Mars.

Very long term is different, But, as I see it, for the next century or so, we are earthbound.

in my view, if we fail to get off of Earth in the next century we are doomed as a species. Does a Mars/Moon/Space habitat colony ensure that we will survive? Not at all. But NOT doing it dooms us.

 

[sophiecentaur]

in my view, if we fail to get off of Earth in the next century we are doomed as a species. Does a Mars/Moon/Space habitat colony ensure that we will survive? Not at all. But NOT doing it dooms us.

That's a very personal view.
If, as you claim, we will not 'survive' for more than a century (perhaps a few, eh?) then what would be the thing that destroy us so fast? A century is nothing like long enough for humans to establish themselves on an alien planet with a viable colony so we may as well sit and enjoy life back on Earth and wait for Doom to arrive.
I don't think I am a particularly selfish sort of person but I would feel much more inclined to contribute to a project to improve living conditions on Earth for me and all my descendants (plus most of the rest of humanity) than to use my disposable income to a project that will not help a single one of my family. Survival of humanity is actually not that big a deal for me and I think I am pretty well typical of a vast number of humans. Ask the question of a poor peasant farmer in Asia or Africa and you won't get any airy fairy ideals in their answer. They want clean water and medical help long before the warm glow of knowing that some rich individual has just set foot on Mars, having spent what could buy a well and a local doctor (plus plus) just on getting there. Whatever you say, there is competition for resources and you can't have both of those alternatives.

 

[mfb]

They want clean water and medical help long before the warm glow of knowing that some rich individual has just set foot on Mars

Chances are good some of them get clean water right now using technology invented for the ISS water recycling system.
Everything today is based on research money spent earlier on projects that didn't directly lead to better living conditions for anyone.

But the samples were from point spots.

Otherwise we would not call them samples. The samples are from a large range of places around the Apollo landing sites. The Apollo crews explored much more area than all the Mars rovers.

Elon Musk is planning to offer a $200,000 ticket to Mars. Can we assume the Lunar ticket will be much less?

It would be similar. Going to the Moon needs more delta_v: A lower payload per launch or more complex refueling operation, driving the price up. Returning would need a large constant supply of carbon, oxygen and hydrogen on the lunar surface. Oxygen is okay, hydrogen is questionable already, carbon is really problematic. ITS could land with enough fuel to return, but then we need even more complex staged refueling operations. The only advantage is the more rapid re-use of the spacecraft .

 

[sophiecentaur]

Chances are good some of them get clean water right now using technology invented for the ISS water recycling system.

"some of them", possibly but the spin-offs of every project always get loads of publicity. If the same effort and money had been expended on developing a purpose built low tech water, it's pretty likely that many more "of them" would be having good water. The spin off argument, which is used in many such cases, is not really valid. It doesn't actually justify the initial high expenditure; it just makes it sound ok and wins votes.

Everything today is based on research money spent earlier on projects that didn't directly lead to better living conditions for anyone.

That is probably true but it isn't a very efficient path to the humanitarian goal. It's very much "crumbs from the rich man's table".
If and when something starts to happen which represents a real threat to the Earth, it will be interesting to see where public opinion causes governments to go with their spending. My money is on mass bunkers on Earth, rather than a rushed exit for a few by spaceship.
And I basically don't trust humans to make a good job of living on Mars when they are causing so many problems down here on Earth.

 

[mfb]

"some of them", possibly but the spin-offs of every project always get loads of publicity.

In the long run the commercial spin-offs exceed the "main" non-commercial purpose by far. This has been discussed and referenced here already (quite sure it was this thread). Often it is unclear how the spin-offs will look like at the time the research is done. In this case you cannot directly start with the commercial application: You have no idea how to start. And no one invests money in something where no one has an idea how that could be used in the future.

That is probably true but it isn't a very efficient path to the humanitarian goal.

It is the only way. We absolutely need this research.
We also need applied research of course. And we do it: The money for applied research exceeds the money for fundamental research by a huge factor.

Reducing the money for fundamental research a lot to increase the funding for applied research by a tiny bit is short-sighted. We might have a tiny profit from it in 1 year, but it will really hurt us in 15-30 years. And we cannot even know where exactly it will hurt, because we will miss applications we don't even know they would have been possible.

 

[sophiecentaur]

It is the only way. We absolutely need this research.

It is "the only way" totally by choice. There is nothing to stop people doing applied (technology) research for humanitarian ends without needing to involve space exploration. In fact it does happen on a small (cheap) scale. The fact that there are few (if any) spin offs from humanitarian based tek research into the space programme is due to the fact that there is very little money and effort put into it in comparison. Space is far more attractive than being useful - but that's a cultural thing and that culture really needs to change if the majority of the population are to benefit as much as they could / should. (That's if you think that humanitarian interests are important.)
Actually, space technology does not involve that much fundamental research. It's a lot of Engineering and, at times of course, it uses the results of fundamental stuff. The 'fundamental knowledge' that comes from space exploration really has very little to do with colonisation aims. It's mostly achieved much better by unmanned expeditions over periods of years and years. You can't measure gravitational waves on a craft that's full of Scientists clunking around, eating and playing. Same goes for deep space imaging and flying by a dozen objects on a single trip round the solar system.

 

[Ken Fabos]

Elon Musk is planning to offer a $200,000 ticket to Mars. Can we assume the Lunar ticket will be much less?

I think we should assume the tickets will be much more than that. That price looks more like it's what it would need to be to be viable to entice people to participate, not an actual estimate of what we should expect them to cost based on actual numbers. And does the ticket include paying for the facilities, the living quarters, living expenses, a reliable, durable spacesuit and perhaps a Mars capable 4x4? Or the pre-investments needed to make all those possible? I remain very doubtful.

 

[mfb]

It is "the only way" totally by choice.

It is not. Without research on "useless" topics like quantum mechanics, we would not have modern computers today, for example. There is no way to get there with applied research only. You cannot design some application using transistors if you don't even know that transistors are possible.
If we would have followed what you seem to suggest here in the past - just improve applications - we would not even have electricity. We would not even have steel because you cannot design a steel tool before playing around with iron ore for decades to figure out how to make a useful material out of it. We would have excellent stone tools.

Government-funded spaceflight is doing something new with every mission, constantly pushing the limits of what we can do in terms of material science, photovoltaics, various sensors, wireless communication, data processing, and tons of other science topics.

I think we should assume the tickets will be much more than that. That price looks more like it's what it would need to be to be viable to entice people to participate, not an actual estimate of what we should expect them to cost based on actual numbers.

It is an actual estimate based on cost estimates for the rocket system. How realistic those numbers are is a different question. Musk estimated $140,000 for the person and the option to take a few tons of payload to Mars. The payload will increase the actual costs of going there. Initially that payload will be needed for habitats, but as soon as components of those can be produced on Mars the payload will focus more on things more challenging to produce on Mars, like semiconductors or other high-tech material.

 

[rootone]

Every time I have asked someone what they thought were the most significant by-products of space research, they always mention Velcro®

 

[Ken Fabos]

I think it got discussed earlier in this thread but it's worth asking if the expectation that success in this venture is simply a matter of sufficient commitment, that the technical difficulties will inevitably be overcome at acceptable cost by doing so? And that flow on economic benefits of spin offs from just trying should be considered a sure enough thing that the enterprise can be expected to be profitable even without achieving the stated objective. As if Moore's Law and space tech equivalents are fundamental physical laws.

 

[Vanadium 50]

Every time I have asked someone what they thought were the most significant by-products of space research, they always mention Velcro®

Really? That predates the space program by a decade.

 

[sophiecentaur]

It is not. Without research on "useless" topics like quantum mechanics, we would not have modern computers today, for example.

Did I imply that QM was "useless"? And did QM arrive only because of space research? There was no space research when QM started its life. I think you missed my point that lot of fundamental research hangs on the technology that is used to carry it out and that technology has been developed on the back of 'fun' matters like the race to the Moon (a totally political thing that was really part of the arms race).
Fundamental stuff and tech feed off each other, of course but which tech is open to question. The manned space race (which is still going on) cannot be justified on the grounds that it's the only way that fundamental research can be funded. Many space borne experiments are needed to enable some kinds of fundamental research, of course, but they don't require people on board - as I said before, people upset sensitive equipment.
The Search for Life has been sold to the public as a reason to ramp up the space race and to spend money that could be better spent on life improvements down here at the moment.

 

[Rive]

if the expectation that success in this venture is simply a matter of sufficient commitment, that the technical difficulties will inevitably be overcome at acceptable cost by doing so? And that flow on economic benefits of spin offs from just trying should be considered a sure enough thing that the enterprise can be expected to be profitable even without achieving the stated objective.

Most likely that's not true.

Steam engines always makes a good example. It does not matter how much one would have been invested in them in the XIX century, to reach the current motorization level were just impossible with them: and the return of such investment... Well... Forget it.

And once the ICE was developed the motion behind the enterprise was nothing like the actual motorization, but for every single step it was some immediate return. And that was what made it!

As our technology and history is now you can take as granted that any (space) colonization attempt would be just an expensive failure. We have problems with even just maintaining our single LEO station.Give it fifty years and many problems which now are just like walls will become trivial matters - that time we can start dreaming.
Give it a century, and maybe those dreams can succeed.
But try it now, and it will become one of the most grandiose tech bubble of history.

 

[mfb]

Did I imply that QM was "useless"? And did QM arrive only because of space research? There was no space research when QM started its life.

Quantum mechanics was considered without practical applications when it was first studied, but the research then lead to many applications.
A Mars outpost, when first studied, is considered without practical applications by some people. But I'm sure the research for it will lead to many applications.

You use 100 years of hindsight to explain research done in quantum mechanics, and dismiss missions to Mars because you don't see applications now?

cannot be justified on the grounds that it's the only way that fundamental research can be funded.

No one claims it would be the only way. I think it is one of the best ways, because you'll get many applications related to maintaining ecosystems, reducing waste, harvesting somewhat sparse resources, getting more independent, getting more flexible in terms of producing things, ...

 

[Al_]

This is a great report about why terraforming Mars is not a good idea. http://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/V2050/pdf/8010.pdf
reviewed on Phys.org https://phys.org/news/2017-03-future-space-colonization-terraforming-habitats.html
I essentially agree with the analysis, except that I think that the Moon is a useful place to get raw materials in the early stages...

 

[sophiecentaur]

No one claims it would be the only way. I think it is one of the best ways, because you'll get many applications related to maintaining ecosystems, reducing waste, harvesting somewhat sparse resources, getting more independent, getting more flexible in terms of producing things, ...

Those are not fundamental research and they have immediate application to life here on Earth. There is nothing about Mars that makes it an essential test bed for Terrestrial systems. The only thing in favour of carrying those experiments on Mars is that they could possibly be 'sold' to the public on the 'glamour' ticket. Funny, when you think that they would cost only a fraction to be done on Earth.
I know that NASA's funding needs to be fought hard for and they can only get the support of politicians when proposed project happens to grab their fancy but, on a Scientific Forum, we should be a bit more dispassionate about these things and not base our preferences so much on gut reaction. There is nothing fundamental about the idea of colonisation but many contributors take it for granted that there is. Otoh, there IS something fundamental about improving living conditions on Earth; that should be better acknowledged.

But I'm sure the research for it will lead to many applications.

Frankly, I don't see that opinion carries a lot of weight. Research on Earth is just as likely to have spin offs and it is a fraction of the cost of doing it on Mars. Moreover, we absolutely know that there is a real and present need for improvements in Earth.
If some low (?) cost investigations into what's available on Mars and the Moon end up showing some useful returns on investment (in the form of material resources) then the investment in colonisation could be proved worth while but it is totally jumping the gun to plan such a huge expense at this stage.

This is a great report about why terraforming Mars is not a good idea. http://www.hou.usra.edu/meetings/V2050/pdf/8010.pdf
reviewed on Phys.org https://phys.org/news/2017-03-future-space-colonization-terraforming-habitats.html
I essentially agree with the analysis, except that I think that the Moon is a useful place to get raw materials in the early stages...

I was pleased to read some reservations about the idea of Terraforming but, even though the second reference contains some 'sensible' caution, the assumption that 100 years would be enough to warm up Mars has massive error bars associated with it. How could they possibly know what the effect of changing the surface temperature by just a few degrees could be? There could easily be negative - or positive feedback effects due to the contents of the planet's crust which are totally unknowable. I was disappointed to read references to SciFi novels in what could have been a sensible paper.
Of course, neither paper really give a good reason 'why' we would need to do it.

 

[Al_]

We have problems with even just maintaining our single LEO station.

This is why we need to create economic activity in space as the next step. Such as; a satellite repair robot, or a Lunar gold-mining rover, or a remote-controlled 3D printer, or an orbiting fuel station that sources its fuel from lunar ice.

 

[mfb]

Those are not fundamental research and they have immediate application to life here on Earth.

They contribute to both.

Research on Earth is just as likely to have spin offs and it is a fraction of the cost of doing it on Mars. Moreover, we absolutely know that there is a real and present need for improvements in Earth.

And there is a lot of money invested in it. The vast majority of research money is spent on applied research here on Earth. What is your point?

A "huge" investment in a Mars colony (where "huge" might be something like 0.01% of the global GDP) might come in 20+ years, if early habitats have shown that a larger station is interesting.

 

[mheslep]

because you'll get many applications related to maintaining ecosystems, reducing waste, harvesting somewhat sparse resources, getting more independent, getting more flexible in terms of producing things, ...

Biosphere 2, 250 of them, for the cost of a $50B Mars mission.

I suspect the greatest gains in innovation from a Mars missions would be in spacecraft (e.g. propulsion, fuels) not hab-craft. Not that it is necessary, but a system that can go to Mars in 3 weeks instead of 6 months will make all the other objections become minor.

 

[mfb]

Biosphere 3-x is one of the important research project series that is both interesting for Mars and Earth. And spaceflight in general.

Going to Mars in three weeks (~30 km/s relative to Earth) will need a nuclear reactor, ultra-thin solar cells with applied magic or some sort of launch mechanism (space elevator, rotating tethers, laser and sails, ...). Going there in three months is possible with chemical rockets.

 

[sophiecentaur]

There is nothing like as much interest in Colonising the shallow Ocean floor as there is in colonising other planets. I find that strange when you think how relatively easy it is to get there and how relatively safe it would be to live there (instant and uncomplicated escape pods available). Plus there's such a lot to see down there that we would instantly relate to; no barren, rock-strewn landscape but teeming life (=food). But neither alternative is a serious way of dealing with population overspill and I wish this was acknowledged by more of the space colony enthusiasts.

 

[HyperTechno]

Mars has a 24 hour day and a higher gravity.

Why is Mars have a higher gravity? Is it denser than the Earth despite being smaller?

Mars atmosphere is being taken away by solar winds. How can that help in making the Mars a backup place for human beings? It would be impossible to terraform Mars if it can't keep its atmosphere with it!

 

[mfb]

Higher than the Moon. Not higher than Earth.
Earth: 1 g
Mars: 0.38 g
Moon: 0.17 g

Mars atmosphere is being taken away by solar winds. How can that help in making the Mars a backup place for human beings? It would be impossible to terraform Mars if it can't keep its atmosphere with it!

Atmospheric loss is something that happens over millions of years. It would be irrelevant even on the timescales of possible terraforming, and in the very distant future we can stop it with an artificial magnetic field or more advanced technologies.

But neither alternative is a serious way of dealing with population overspill and I wish this was acknowledged by more of the space colony enthusiasts.

That would be a stupid argument obviously, and I haven't seen it come up here so far, so where is the problem?

There is somewhat limited interest in living at the bottom of the sea, or on its surface. It is not zero.

 

[sophiecentaur]

That would be a stupid argument

Not a good word to use but I will ignore it. Are you really suggesting that there is a serious prospect of putting billions of people on Mars? That's what 'overspill' would have to represent. Could you tell me how unlimited expansion of our (any) species is a 'good thing' and something we should be aiming at?
I am only suggesting that taking a step backwards and looking of a good reason for all this - apart from Because we Can. I can see no prospect of it improving life quality for many (if any) humans. I mean life quality and not wealth.

 

[mfb]

Are you really suggesting that there is a serious prospect of putting billions of people on Mars?

I am saying that no one in this thread is suggesting that. And I say that it would be stupid to suggest that we could do that (in a reasonable timeframe).

 

[sophiecentaur]

I am saying that no one in this thread is suggesting that. And I say that it would be stupid to suggest that we could do that (in a reasonable timeframe).

Then why would there be a point in terraforming the place, if not for overspill? You can erect a lot of domes for a small population at a small fraction of the cost and in much less time. This is just another example of the lack of direction of this thread. No two people seem to be talking about the same thing. Bearing in mind that many of the contributors are likely to be Engineers, this surprises me because an Engineer usually wants to know the purpose and budget for any project he/she is to be involved in.

 

[sophiecentaur]

Why is Mars have a higher gravity? Is it denser than the Earth despite being smaller?

Mars atmosphere is being taken away by solar winds. How can that help in making the Mars a backup place for human beings? It would be impossible to terraform Mars if it can't keep its atmosphere with it!

Even if the surface gravity of two planets is much the same, at different heights, the 1/r² part of the formula can make it drop off quicker or slower for each planet.

 

[Tom Taaffe]

"... according to http://aeon.co/magazine/technology/the-elon-musk-interview-on-mars/, the most likely scenario (at least for the foreseeable future) would involve an economy based on real estate." - I think that explains a lot.

Capitalism depends on market expansion. Musk and his friends are putting a downpayment on first position into next century's real estate market and - in the process - roping government into financing the trillions needed to make that happen.

Why Mars and not the Moon? The potential for further real estate expansion: starting with the asteroid belt. Musk is betting that the cost-per-unit for settlement will go down dramatically as colonization and potential terraforming becomes routine. The more that Mars can be terraformed like earth, the more easily the mineral wealth of that planet AND the asteroid belt can be mined. From there, it becomes more possible to colonize Jupiter's moons... etc. etc. etc.

Seen from this angle, the moon will play a part in this adventure. But the moon's military potential will always trump its capitalist potential. It will - I suspect - become more of a way station, a checkpoint, fuel production and filling station, dominated by Earthbound government or intergovernmental security apparati. Useful to capitalism, but not it's favorite playground....

I think Musk is being honest. The real estate market as launching pad for all forms of capitalist enterprise...

 

[Vanadium 50]

Why Mars and not the Moon? The potential for further real estate expansion: starting with the asteroid belt.

Except that from an energetics point of view, the Moon is "closer" to the asteroid belt.

 

[Ken Fabos]

I suspect that the greatest lesson of our times is how to live sustainably and prosperously within the limits of the world we have - and, tantalising as all that real estate on the Moon or Mars may appear in the internet advertisements, a first hand inspection would show it's not such a good purchase.

A sustainably and persistently prosperous Earth economy is the prerequisite for attaining the advances in technology that could make space colonisation a viable proposition. Space resources, using existing technologies, cannot contribute anything that significantly extends that sustainability and prosperity in any timely manner. The tech advances made here on Earth, in aid of Earthly needs, will be more likely to lead to the advances that make future space enterprises profitable than seeking tech advances in aid of space colonisation will flow through to Earth's benefits. Spin-offs - accidental benefits - are nice when they happen but committing resources to actual, vitally important goals is what delivers real results.

Sorry, but even after reading the many well expressed arguments otherwise, I think space colonisation is too deeply enmeshed with decades of optimistic fictional representations - which tend to understate the costs and difficulties and overstate the benefits. It's really hard, really expensive and exploitable economic opportunities (given those costs and difficulties) have not been convincingly shown.

 

[mfb]

Then why would there be a point in terraforming the place, if not for overspill?

For all the reasons discussed in the previous 640 posts. "We want a significant fraction of the population going away" was never the reason for going to new territories- it was always done by smaller groups.

Except that from an energetics point of view, the Moon is "closer" to the asteroid belt.

Depends on how much time you have, and how much launch infrastructure you assume on Moon. With a lunar space elevator with sufficient capacity or with other launch infrastructure, Moon is much closer. Otherwise we need 2.4 km/s to get away from it, at least 1.7 km/s with high thrust propulsion.
From the asteroid belt you can get back with something like 1 km/s and a Mars fly-by, or 1.5 km/s and no Mars fly-by, all of it can be done by ion thrusters or similar low-thrust but high-efficiency propulsion methods.

Asteroid belt -> Mars is much easier than Moon -> Mars, of couse.

 

[sophiecentaur]

I think space colonisation is too deeply enmeshed with decades of optimistic fictional representations

I think that say's it all. The parallels between colonising 'space' and 'the New World' are exaggerated in many peoples' minds. What Musk is selling is very optimistic for the timescale of modern international politics. Governments and even whole regimes can change in a fraction of the timescale involved with these grandiose projects. Things will need to change an awful lot on Earth before the sort of co operation needed can be expected. What no one seems to consider is the competition between states for the resources. We can hardly rely on the present powers to behave themselves and co operate in Earthly affairs. Is it likely to be any different when it comes to sharing any of the benefits that could be gained from space? Why should the Chinese want to ally themselves with Europe or the USA (or vice versa) when they could imagine grabbing all those benefits with a few well timed space war operations? There is little chance that the rest of space will be treated like the Antarctic and even the status is Antarctic is only being respected as long as it suits us all.

 

[rootone]

Apparently you can name some star to be whatever you like since previously unknown stars are being noted daily.
Internet is great innit.
http://www.buyastar.ie/?gclid=Cj0KE...rJNW_QvSTU8norOg5uD9a0WuJvjDQf04bcaAjAI8P8HAQ
/.sarc

 

[mfb]

What no one seems to consider is the competition between states for the resources. We can hardly rely on the present powers to behave themselves and co operate in Earthly affairs. Is it likely to be any different when it comes to sharing any of the benefits that could be gained from space? Why should the Chinese want to ally themselves with Europe or the USA (or vice versa) when they could imagine grabbing all those benefits with a few well timed space war operations? There is little chance that the rest of space will be treated like the Antarctic and even the status is Antarctic is only being respected as long as it suits us all.

If a colony is profitable in terms of resources alone, don't worry about funding, it will happen. Funding is only worth discussing if there is no direct profit from local resources.

For initial science interest: International collaborations for science megaprojects work. We have the LHC, we have ITER, we have the ISS, and various other projets (nearly all of them with international collaboration).

 

[rootone]

Well the only other possibility is for one nation on Earth to do it alone.
I know that intuition can be wrong, but I trust myself on this one, it has to be international