Why is the %change of the %change of a sequence so chaotic?

  • Context: High School 
  • Thread starter Thread starter beamthegreat
  • Start date Start date
  • Tags Tags
    Chaotic Excel Sequence
Click For Summary

Discussion Overview

The discussion revolves around the behavior of the percent change of a sequence, specifically examining why the percent change of the percent change appears chaotic. Participants explore this phenomenon using a simple numerical sequence and consider both rounding errors and the effects of nonlinearity in sequences.

Discussion Character

  • Exploratory
  • Technical explanation
  • Mathematical reasoning

Main Points Raised

  • One participant presents a sequence and questions the chaotic nature of the percent change of its percent change, noting a lack of obvious patterns.
  • Another participant attributes the observed chaos primarily to the propagation of rounding errors in calculations, suggesting that these errors grow with each step in the sequence.
  • A different participant proposes an analytical verification of the calculations, introducing the concept of relative change and providing a formula for it.
  • It is mentioned that even without rounding errors, chaotic behavior can arise due to nonlinearity in sequences, where small differences can lead to disproportionately large changes in subsequent calculations.

Areas of Agreement / Disagreement

Participants express differing views on the causes of the chaotic behavior, with some attributing it to rounding errors while others highlight the role of nonlinearity. There is no consensus on a singular explanation.

Contextual Notes

Some participants reference specific calculations and formulas, but the discussion remains open-ended with incomplete expressions and unresolved mathematical steps.

beamthegreat
Messages
116
Reaction score
7
Take the sequence 1,2,3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10...
If you found the percent change for each interval and kept on finding the percent change of the percent change of the sequence, why does the change become more and more chaotic?

Here is a quick table I made:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1gufw9MEJBUz_YEZBcfu6F_9IPAS3umoDyYh-4aXQRUA/pubhtml

Are there any explanation for this? There doesn't appear to be any obvious pattern to it.
 
Physics news on Phys.org
It's just the propagation of a tiny rounding error in the spreadsheet calculation, that grows with each step to the right. At first it is invisible within the digits shown but it grows to become visible and ultimately to dominate.

In fact the correct number in row j of column k is ##-1/(j-1)##, for ##k>1## and ##1/(j-1)## for ##k=1##. So the correct numbers are the same across every row, other than the first column, and diminish methodically in absolute value as we go down a column. It's fairly straightforward to prove this algebraically.
 
for the sequence n = 1,2,3,4... verify the calculation analitically:
the relative change ##c_n## in going from n-1 to n is ##c_n = [n-(n-1)]/n = 1/n##
(note: the percentage change is ##100c_n##)

Now you have a sequence of relative changes: ##c_1, c_2 \cdots##
where ##c_n = 1/n##

the relative change going from ##c_{n-1}## to ##c_n## is:
$$d_n = \frac{c_n-c_{n-1}}{c_n}=\cdots$$... complete the expression.
 
In this case, it is just rounding errors, but you'll also see this without rounding errors if the original sequence is a bit chaotic. The reason is the nonlinearity: if one difference in a sequence happens to be very small, it appears in the denominator in one element in the next sequence, producing a huge value. Change the 6 to 6.1 for example and see how the values change dramatically even in the range where they are nice with the current sequence.
 

Similar threads

  • · Replies 15 ·
Replies
15
Views
2K
  • · Replies 5 ·
Replies
5
Views
3K
  • · Replies 24 ·
Replies
24
Views
7K
  • · Replies 8 ·
Replies
8
Views
3K
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
2K
  • · Replies 0 ·
Replies
0
Views
3K
  • · Replies 41 ·
2
Replies
41
Views
6K
  • · Replies 1 ·
Replies
1
Views
1K
  • · Replies 24 ·
Replies
24
Views
5K
  • · Replies 7 ·
Replies
7
Views
3K